Transcript AEA Technology Environment

Low carbon scenarios for the
UK Energy White Paper
Peter G Taylor
Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and
climate change scenarios”. 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen
Overview of presentation
• The Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution report on “Energy - the changing
climate”
• The UK Energy White Paper
• Modelling approach to scenario work
• Results and conclusions
Royal Commission Report topics covered
• Scenarios for future energy demand &
•
•
•
•
•
•
supply;
Environmental implications of such scenarios;
Scope for reducing demand;
Potential contributions to energy supplies;
Assessment of alternative energy
technologies;
Role of government & markets;
Effectiveness of present institutions in framing
& delivering energy policies.
Royal Commission Report conclusions on CO2 objectives
• Further action required from both developed
•
•
•
& developing nations
Global climate agreement based on
contraction & convergence, with emissions
trading .
An upper limit on CO2 concentrations of 550
ppmv, with convergence by 2050.
UK CO2 emissions should reduce by about
60% by 2050 and by 80% by 2100.
UK Energy White Paper
2500
Electricity Generation (PJ)
Wave
CHP
2000
PV
Biomass
1500
Offshore
Onshore
1000
Waste
Hydro
500
0
2000
Nuclear
GTCC (C
2010
2020
2030
Ye ar
2040
2050
GTCC
Ex. Coa
Goals of new UK energy policy
• to put the UK on a path to cut the UK’s CO2
•
•
•
emissions by 60% by about 2050, with real
progress by 2020
to maintain the reliability of energy supplies
to promote competitive markets in the UK and
beyond
to ensure that every home is adequately and
affordably heated.
Aims of low carbon scenario work
• to develop bottom-up baseline carbon dioxide
•
•
emissions projections to 2050
to identify potential technical options for
carbon dioxide abatement
to investigate the cost of reducing carbon
emissions
Modelling approach
• Bottom-up technology model
• Size and timing of changes
• Spread of action between supply and
•
•
•
demand
Apply emissions constraints
Estimate system costs
Sensitivity analyses
Overview of model
Useful energy
demand
Primary
fuel prices
Menu of energy technologies
production
conversion
transmission
utilisation
Optimal least cost mix of
technologies
Emissions
constraints
Scenarios
• Baseline
• World Markets
• Global Sustainability
Exploring a range of possible futures covering both
economic and social change
Many sensitivities also examined
Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation
Electricity Generation (PJ)
- Baseline scenario
1800
1600
CHP
1400
Biomass
1200
Onshore wind
1000
Waste
800
Hydro
600
Nuclear
400
GTCC
200
Ex. Coal
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation
- 60% CO2 reduction in 2050
(limited energy efficiency)
2500
Electricity Generation (PJ)
Wave
CHP
2000
PV
Biomass
1500
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
1000
Waste
Hydro
500
0
2000
Nuclear
GTCC (CO2 capture)
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
GTCC
Ex. Coal
Energy Use in Transport
- 60% CO2 reduction in 2050
Transport Energy Use (PJ)
2500
Electricity
2000
Hydrogen
CNG
1500
Biodiesel
Methanol
1000
Kerosene
Gasoline
500
Diesel
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Annual cost of reducing
emissions by 60 % in 2050
£bn/yr
Baseline
Limited EE
Limited Innovation
2020
0
0.1
0.1
2030
1
8
6
2040
5
17
19
2050
10
38
42
B
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
3
S
E
1N
2
1
V
E
E
YD
E
E
60
E
E
O
0E
N
E
L6
0I
N
0E
B
L6
L6
B
E
0E
60
L6
M
B
W
P
P
F
F
E
M
0H
60
60
W
L6
M
E
0E
60
L6
M
B
W
W
B
E
E
0
2
2
1
D
C
IN
0P
LD
L6
S
B
B
LD
E
F
L6
U
0W
B
0P
0N
B
L6
G
B
L6
L6
B
C
E
U
LD
2
1
60
E
E
S
P
P
G
60
60
0N
B
L6
S
S
5000
B
B
G
G
Marginal cost (£/tC)
Sensitivities to look at costs under
different assumptions
6000
2030
2050
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Main conclusions
• Diversity of technology options for reducing CO2
•
•
•
•
emissions
Energy efficiency is central, but not sufficient, to
achieve 60 % CO2 reduction
Abatement costs are highly uncertain, but effects on
growth are likely to be relatively small
Innovation & technical progress are essential
Key technology groups: end-use energy efficiency,
renewable energy, carbon capture & storage,
hydrogen & nuclear power