Transcript Slide 1

2nd Ghent Summer School
August 28, 2014
The challenge of running 100% renewable
energy scenarios
Methodological issues
D. Devogelaer, FPB
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100% what?
• Mission from 4 energy ministers in 2011:
•1 federal, 3 regional ministers of Energy
•Concerns on climate, economy and SoS
• Time frame, target and consortium fixed:
2050 - 100% - FPB (fed), VITO (Fl), ICEDD (Wl)
manoeuver within that framework
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How can we answer a question like this?
“You say you want a [renewable] revolution…
We'd all love to see the plan”
The Beatles, White Album, 1968
Relatively easy to calculate number of windmills, solar panels,
... required, less straightforward to have them all available
when needed
(V)LT model  Scenario analysis
Which
input?
Which
model?
Which
scenarios?
Which
output?
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The model
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Model: What(’s in a name)?
« En économie, un modèle est une représentation simplifiée de la réalité économique ou
d'une partie de celle-ci. Comme dans les autres disciplines scientifiques, les modèles
économiques utilisent le formalisme mathématique qui permet de représenter le modèle
sous forme d'équations. Outre ces équations, les modèles empiriques sont constitués d’une
banque de données propre et généralement d’un jeu de paramètres. «
Source: FPB.
• a description of a system using mathematical concepts and
•
•
•
language
used not only in natural sciences (e.g. physics) and
engineering disciplines (e.g. computer science, artificial
intelligence), but also in social sciences (e.g. economics)
may help to explain a system and to study the effects of
different components, but also to make projections about
future behaviour
basically, a set of interrelated equations that can assign
results either to a variable or to a dimension value
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How do you define the choice of the model?
• What is your research question?
• Which models are apt to answer the question?
100% study: Model TIMES
1. National energy system
2. VITO partner in project
3. Quick feedback loops
4. Experience with time horizon 2050
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Basic principles of TIMES model
• Partial equilibrium (energy) model
• Bottom-up optimisation model of the national energy
•
•
•
•
system
Detailed representation of energy-material flows and
technologies (broad sense)
Various alternative technological choices
Up to 2050
Driving factor: fulfilment of energy service demand (≠
energy demand)
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Challenge: Dealing with variable renewable sources
 daily and seasonal fluctuations
Source: Elia.
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Major model improvements for dealing with
variable character of renewable energy
1. Cope with uncertainty of power supply
• Extending the temporal resolution to 78 periods in one year = 26
periods of two weeks x 3 periods a day
• Reserve capacity requirement (sum of nominal power of biomass
plants, geothermal and storage facilities)
• Constraint to assure that BE can be self sustained for 14 consecutive
days without counting on wind and solar
2. Day-night and seasonal electricity storage options
3. Alternative solutions to increase system’s flexibility
• Overproduction - grid disconnection  curtailment
• Endogenous steel production timing (not ‘just in time’)
4. Endogenous transmission and distribution network
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The input
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Define assumptions
How do you go about?
• Literature review: problem of finding exactly what you need
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•
•
•
•
Geographical scope
Time frame
“Old” data
Coherence
…
• Stakeholders: want to have their say, can deliver valuable
input, but
•
•
•
Often not familiar with model specificities
Often not aware of time lags of model
One model cannot solve all
• Expert judgment: more difficult for references/objectivity
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Define assumptions (II)
You will get attacked on your assumptions… always!
•
•
•
Because it is no exact science e.g. oil price projections
Because by the time your study gets published, assumptions can
be out-dated -> the curse of the modeller
By pressure groups, lobbyists, but also peers
Solution: Perform sensitivity analyses to test robustness of
results
Often the definition of assumptions is an exercise on its own
and can give rise to new studies!
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Background information
Surface: 30.000 km2
Population: 11 million (330p/km2)
GDP: 350 billion €
Final energy consumption: 1800 PJ
Per capita final energy consumption:
150% EU27 average or 75% US
Hydro: limited to 120 MW
Domestic fossil energy supply = 0
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Assumptions
• Belgian GDP: increases at an AAGR of 1.8% in 2010-2050
• Fuel prices: Energy roadmap 2050, CPI, crude oil to some 127 $’08/bbl in
•
•
•
•
•
2050
Carbon price: Energy roadmap 2050, CPI, 15 €/tCO2 in 2020, 51 €/tCO2 in
2050
CCS technologies: not allowed
Coal: no investments in new coal fired PP’s
Nuclear: current legislation on the phasing out of nuclear PP’s
Electricity imports: limited to 5.8 TWh (average Belgian net imports 20032010)
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Assumptions on renewable costs
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Assumptions on electricity storage costs
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The scenarios
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Definition of scenarios
REF
Fossil Benchmark scenario
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The output
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Results for REF
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Analysis of results
While presenting the results to the stakeholder committee,
they noticed that costs for REF were relatively low -> in the
search for an answer, it came about that investments in coal
fired power plants were still allowed
•
•
Relatively low prices in 2050 due to lack of oil indexation
No GHG target so not penalised
Changed that, so no new coal investments in power generation
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Results for REN scenarios
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Analysis of results
• Model has tendency to postpone investments: bulk of
investments during the final decade
• Makes economical sense, but from a societal point of view
•
non-sense
Imposition of targets:
35% of primary energy in 2030, 65% in 2040, 100% in 2050
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Energy mix: Primary energy, 2050
1800
1600
1400
1200
PJ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
REF
DEM
Solar
Total ambient heat (air + ground)
Wind onshore
Wind offshore, non-Belgian territory
Fossil
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Bioenergy (domestic and import)
Hydro
Wind offshore
Electricity - import
Source: TIMES.
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Energy mix: Final energy, 2050
1600
1400
1200
PJ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
REF
Electricity
DEM
Biomass
GRID
Hydrogen
BIO
Heat (air & ground & direct)
PV
WIND
Coal
Gas
Oil
Source: TIMES.
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Energy mix: Power generation, 2050
250
350
300
200
150
200
GWe
TWh
250
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
REF
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Imported electricity (other)
Wind offshore - non Belgian territory
Gas
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
PV
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass (incl. CHP)
Of which excess electricity
Source: TIMES.
REF
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Wind offshore - non Belgian territory
Gas
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
PV
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass (incl. CHP)
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Energy mix: Power generation capacities (MW), 2020-2050
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
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Storage capacities: Electricity (GWh), 2020-2050
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
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Energy mix: Energy flows in PV scenario (PJ), 2050
Source: http://www.emis.vito.be/artikel/naar-100-hernieuwbare-energie-belgi%C3%AB-tegen-2050-video
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Costs: Energy system costs (M€2005), 2050
50000
120000
40000
100000
30000
80000
20000
60000
10000
40000
0
20000
0
-10000
REF
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
-20000
REF
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Demand reductions
Investment and fixed costs
Variable costs
Demand reductions
Investment and fixed costs
Variable costs
Source: TIMES.
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Costs: Additional cost wrt REF (% of GDP), 2050
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
DEM
GRID
Additional total cost
BIO
PV
WIND
Additional energy system cost
Source: TIMES.
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Costs: Additional cost incl. avoided GHG damage cost
(M€2005), 2050
• Total annual add.
•
cost wrt REF, when
(global) benefit of
avoided GHG in
2050 is included
Lord Stern@Davos:
‘I got it wrong on
climate change –
it's far, far worse’
20000
No longer a cost...
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
The Observer, Jan 26, 2013
-10000
-15000
... but a benefit
DEM
GRID
Low case CO2 damage (130 €/ton)
BIO
PV
WIND
High case CO2 damage (300 €/ton)
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Costs: Additional investments wrt REF (M€2005)
28000
450000
400000
23000
350000
300000
18000
250000
200000
13000
150000
8000
100000
50000
3000
0
-50000
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
-2000
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Agriculture
CHP
Commercial
Agriculture
CHP
Commercial
Conversion
Electricity
Industry
Conversion
Electricity
Industry
Other sectors
Residential
Transport
Other sectors
Residential
Transport
Cumulative for 2013-2050
Investments in 2050
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Costs: Cumulative additional investment
expenditures in the electricity sector (M€2005)
300000
Cumulative for 2013-2050
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
DEM
Conventional
GRID
Geothermal
BIO
Grid expansion
PV
Others
Solar
WIND
Storage
Wind
Source: TIMES.
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Some things ‘outside’ the model
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Some things outside the model
• Part of the assignment was to look at the socio-economical
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•
impact of the transformation
Problem: not within modelling environment
So you start again with
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a literature overview
looking for an adequate model or instrument
defining your data
analysing your results
…
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Employment
• Article of Wei et al. (2010)
• Look at ways to adapt to Belgian situation
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•
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Capacity factors
Lifetime
Domestic production
…
• Gather data: define the input that you need and find sources
Sources have to be as coherent as possible with each other and
with the previous exercise
• Make spreadsheet model
• Run the model
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Employment: Some estimations
• The RES trajectories
•
•
•
all create more jobyears or FTE’s than
REF
REF already
integrates a lot of
renewables
PV creates the most
FTE’s in any given
year
BIO and DEM are the
second highest job
generating scenarios
Annual job-years generated over REF due to the RES trajectories, 2020-2030
Total FTE’s
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2020
2021
DEM
2022
2023
2024
GRID
2025
2026
BIO
2027
2028
PV
2029
2030
WIND
Source: Wei et al. (2010), Federal Planning Bureau (2013).
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Employment: Some estimations (II)
• Going from average to min-max ranges
• Going from all jobs to types of jobs
• Results in ranges of CIM and O&M and fuel processing jobs for
the years 2020 and 2030
100000
100000
90000
90000
80000
80000
70000
70000
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
CIM min
O&M min
Indirect min
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
CIM max
O&M max
Indirect max
Source: Federal Planning Bureau (2013).
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Employment: Some estimations (III)
• National
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•
macrosectoral
model:
HERMES<FPB
WIND scenario
Results in % wrt
REF
Confidential
Source: Federal Planning Bureau (2014).
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Other things ‘outside’ the model
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PAMs
• 6 critical areas of government action/intervention
1. Defining a clear institutional framework
2. Improving energy efficiency
3. Supporting renewable energy production
4. Improving energy infrastructure
5. Supporting research and development
6. Facilitating the electrification of the society
• Principles for designing policies
Cost
effectiveness
Fairness
Competitiveness
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Conclusions (1/2)
Technically, a 100% renewable energy system is feasible without
having to change the economic paradigm.
However, such a radical society transformation implies that:
o A highly ambitious renewable target goes hand in hand with a trend
towards electrification: a doubling/tripling of power production is
noted, curtailment is necessary
o Energy imports strongly diminish but remain important: imports
tumble from 83% (REF) to [42%-15%] depending on the scenario
o Society shifts from a fuel intensive to a capital intensive society
o It seems cost efficient to maintain overcapacities, both in industry
and power generation  new paradigm in energy perception
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Conclusions (2/2)
o This comes at a significant cost: in 2050, energy system costs increase by
20% wrt REF, BUT…
o When including disutility costs, the total add. cost is even higher (30%)
o With disutility + GHG damage  net positive effect of some scenarios
+/- 10 B€/year (highly dependent on GHG damage cost assumptions)
o 300 to 400 billion € of additional investments are needed
o Sensitivity to fuel prices and PV costs
o PV costs from 371 – 1000 €05/kWp => variation of 0.5% of GDP2050
o Variant of REF scenario with higher oil prices (250 $08/boe in 2050)
 additional costs decrease
o Creation of additional employment
o 20 000 to 60 000 additional full-time jobs in 2030
o Cost efficiency of adapting to energy flow variability
o Further research is certainly needed
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Follow up
• Presentations


National
International

Central Economic Council:



Climact, VITO: Scenarios for a low carbon Belgium by 2050
ICEDD: Le coût d’une transition énergétique postposée en Wallonie
…
• TED conference
• Summer school (1&2)
• Other studies
Construction of a model capable of analysing
the socio-economical impacts of ‘quelconque’ energy policy
• Political


First Common Commission on Energy in 2013
Flemish Government’s demand to study 2030 implications
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Thank you!
Contact:
Danielle Devogelaer, [email protected]
Dominique Gusbin, [email protected]
Jan Duerinck, [email protected]
Wouter Nijs, [email protected]
Yves Marenne, [email protected]
Marco Orsini, [email protected]
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Results
Space requirements: Surface (km2), 2050
45000
40000
35000
km2
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
REF
DEM
GRID
BIO
PV
WIND
Solar
Wind offshore (BE)
Wind onshore
Biomass (domestic and imported)
Belgian land surface
Belgian Continental Plate
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External fuel bill
Total energy import costs, Reference scenario (M€2005)
18000
+53%
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Bioenergy
2020
2030
Electricity from trade
2040
Gas
Nuclear
2050
Oil products
Solid fuels
Source: TIMES.
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