Transcript Infrastructure Investment Plan for London

London Infrastructure Plan
2050
Sir Edward Lister
Chief of Staff and Deputy Mayor for
Planning and Policy
WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN:
population growth
POPULATION
(MILLIONS}
14
High
13.4 million
1a
12
Central
11.3 million
10
Low
9.5 million
g
g
'l
8
5
4
a
1900
1920
1940
1980
1990
11100
1Q20
1040
11160
tQBO
2000
2020
2040
2080
WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN :
Announce to the world that London is the best place to do
business
With a million more people in London in the next decade, by 2031 we will need:
•
•
•
•
34,900
1.3m 1.3m 40,000
more homes: likely to be higher
2.2m sq ft of office space in central London alone
2.2 m sq ft of comparison retail space
more hotel bedrooms
WHY A LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN:
significant economic opportunity but ferocious competition
London’s infrastructure is a competitive risk
Aviation
Connectivity
Congestion
Housing
Space for walking and cycling
WHAT DOES
LONDON NEED?
INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN AIMS
“Present recommendations and actions to ensure London’s infrastructure requirements to 2050
are articulated, costed and funding arrangements are in place (as far as possible).
Demonstrate to the Government, Londoners and investors that infrastructure is a key priority
and that London has a clear plan to meet the demands of its growing population and remain
a leading world city.
Ensure the London Infrastructure Plan is supported and deliverable, through active involvement
of key
stakeholders.
Provide the Mayor and other London leaders with the
information to understand and critically appraise London’s infrastructure delivery”
FOUR CRITICAL QUESTIONS
O V E RALL
KEY FINDINGS
T RAN S PO R T ( 1 )
Tube investment £15-18 bn
Enable 36 trains
per hour across
the Jubilee,
Piccadilly,
Northern and
Central line
Transform national
commuter rail network
through joint investment
with Network Rail
(£15-20 bn)
Crowding levels on the tube
network 2031
Bakerloo
line
extension
Further ‘Crossrails’
starting with
Crossrail 2 by 2030
and increasing
frequency of
Crossrail 1 trains
(£23-30 bn)
T RAN S PO R T ( 2 )
A series of new river crossings in
east London to overcome the major
barrier effect constraining the
potential of this region (£1-2bn)
A comprehensive
network of high quality
cycle and pedestrian
routes (£2-4bn)
A new inner orbital
tooled tunnel and
series of mini-tunnels
and decking over to
help transform places
across the city (£1525bn)
A congestionbusting programme
to support network
functioning for
essential journeys
(£2-5bn)
GREEN
THE ALL LONDON GREEN GRID
FRAMEWORK PLAN
· · • Siiateg-c corridOfs
Slrateg c inlls
Metropc l:m park opportunlttea
-?" Regiona 1 park opporluntties
Regional parks
e
e
Metropolitan !)3t ks
Dtstricl parks
loc;al parks &. open spactts
Other/pnvate spaces
·---· Strateg c W3 king routes
Strateg c cyclmg routes
Sautee . Gre•1:er l.Dndon Authan1J'
DIGITAL
CONNECTIVITY
Before 2020s…and beyond
Fibre and wireless access
to the internet
To enable new ideas
ENERGY
More investment in
locally produced energy
(£300million in the
pipeline)
WATER
Sewage
Expected a
deficit in water
supply of over
half a billion
litres a day by
2050
Flood defence
About 16% of
London is built
on the
protected flood
plains of our
rivers that
holds critical
infrastructure.
More
investment is
needed in flood
defences that
can cope with
climate
changes and
aging existing
infrastructure
defences.
WASTE: create facilities to
re-use and recycle
NEXT STEPS
SPATIAL SCENARIOS
Assuming current policies continue
Increasing densities in locations
with good public access.
Increasing densities at town
centres.
Accommodating population
outside London
BETTER DELIVERY
•
Innovation and growth to be at the centre of our work
•
A new Infrastructure Delivery Group
•
Work to gain cross party support and commitment to London’s infrastructure
projects
•
Reforms to the regulatory systems (energy, water and ICT) to enable delivery ahead
of demand, innovation and transparency
•
Fiscal devolution
COSTS
ES TIMATE
BILLIONS
% OFGVA
250
tOI!E.
200
Our best cost estimates
to meet all our
infrastructure
needs would almost double
expenditure as a proportion
of the economy.
Housing and transport
make up three quarters of
the total costs
150
OVERALL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Population 2050 of 11.3 mJIIion, construction
cost inllation of 211E>per annum above RPI,
pobcy aspmltions are acnieved
tOO
50
211b
tllb
0
Ollb
2011- 15
2016-20
2021 - 2.5
2026 - 30
2031 -35
2036 - 40
2041 - 45
2046 - 50
•
•
-
Transport
Housing
Energy
Water
•
••
Capex as qa of GVA
Sll'urae: Amp
Schools
Waste
Digital conneclivity
Green infrasuucurre
PAY I N G
FOR
IT
Such a level of investment
cannot be sustained doing
things in the traditiona l way.
INCOME FROM CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT GRANTS
W e need a combination
of better coordination and
integration, better asset
utilisation, more use of data
and private capital.
More spending powers
for London will be key.
lon d on : 66'1b
New York: 30.9%
Tokyo: 7.7'1b
FIS CAL DEVOLUTION
UPLIFT IN
PROPERT Y VALUES
ADDITIONAL
REVENUES
BETTER USE
OF OUR DATA
BETTER INTEGRATION
AND COORDINATION
PROCUR EMENT
PRIVATE CAPITAL
YOUR INPUT
KEY CONSULTATION QUESTIONS:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Do you agree we should have a long term plan?
Our stated requirements - any unnecessary? Anything else?
Funding – how can we close the gap?
What more in addition to the Delivery Board to ensure best practice, joined up
delivery?
Where w ill London’s growth best be accommodated?
Amend incentives for utility providers to share costs more equitably? How to do this?
Approach to technological change? Which innovations?
How to change behaviours to reduce demand? And various sector specific questions