Transcript The Plan's Investment Implications and their Realism

The draft London Plan
Investment implications and their
realism
© 2003 Tony Travers
The draft London Plan
“Forces driving change”
• Population
• Economy
• Environment
• Lifestyles
• Technology
• Social Justice
The draft London Plan
The need for a plan:
• “The elimination of an elected government for
London in 1986 came at a particularly
inappropriate moment for the capital. It came at
the end of a planning legacy, which had at first
encouraged, then presided over, the
decentralisation of many of London’s key
economic activities together with population
dispersal”.
The draft London Plan
What occurred in the absence of a plan:
• “Lacking its own strategic authority, London’s
economy developed and its population grew,
without a clear vision of their place in the UK
economy, without effective strategic planning, and
without a clear assessment of the resources and
policies required to deal with renewed
growth….phenomenal growth….was not matched
by sufficient investment”
The draft London Plan
The Draft London Plan states, therefore
• earlier London planning had sought to
decentralise, reduce economic activity and
cut the population
• decline stopped; growth resumed
• the abolition of the GLC left the city unable
to grapple with the problems caused by
growth
The draft London Plan
Thus……
• strategic planning was responsible for the
decline in London’s population, economy
and position within the UK
• this decline stopped for some (unstated)
reason in the mid 1980s
• planning is now needed to cope with growth
The draft London Plan
The draft London Plan thus suggests:
• London planning could be used to assist in
decentralisation, lowering economic
activity, thinning-out population
• but, it could also be used to facilitiate a
continuation of growth that spontaneously
re-ignited in the 1980s
• the latter path has been chosen
The draft London Plan
Growth since the mid-1980s:
• Population up from 6.7/6.8 million to
7.2/7.3 million
• Employment up from 4.1 to 4.7 million
– Concentrated in Centre, West
• Underground use at all-time record levels
by 2001
The draft London Plan
• Infrastructure built between mid 1980s and 2002:
Transport
–
–
–
–
–
–
Docklands Light Railway + extensions
Jubilee Line extension
Croydon Tramlink
Heathrow Express
Thameslink services
New rolling stock on Tube, commuter lines
The draft London Plan
• Infrastructure built between 1981 and 2001:
Housing
– Total dwellings up from 2.682 million to 3.067
million (+14.3%)
Offices
– Total office/industrial space up so as to
accommodate 600,000 additional workers
• Canary Wharf alone = +10m sq ft
The draft London Plan
• Thus, London managed to develop new
homes, offices, transport capacity in the
period 1986 to 2000
• But, still a perception that planning is
needed to allow the city to develop further
• Draft London Plan accepts population and
job growth on a predict-and-provide basis
The draft London Plan
The Mayor’s draft plan accepts the following:
• Population: up from 7.4 to 8.1 million
• Jobs: up from 4.5 to 5.1 million
• Households up from 3.1 to 3.4 million
- an extra 450,000 homes
The draft London Plan
• Infrastructure planned to accommodate this
growth:
–
–
–
–
–
Transport
Housing
Offices
Schools, hospitals
Waste Management
The draft London Plan
Transport
• East London line
• CrossRail 1 (East-West line)
• Thameslink 2000
• CrossRail 2 (Hackney – South West)
• OrbiRail
The draft London Plan
Housing
• Target of 458,000 dwellings: 1997 to 2016
• 23,000 per annum
• Current average closer to 15,000 pa
• Boroughs expected to ensure 35 to 50 per
cent are “affordable”
• Planning permissions to demand affordable
units
The draft London Plan
Offices
• Target of 463,000 office spaces: 2001 to
2016, of which,
–
–
–
–
–
Central
East
West
North
South
142,000
223,000
60,000
15,000
23,000
The draft London Plan
• Offices will be provided by private sector,
though the London Plan would skew
development heavily to the East
• Housing will depend on a rise in overall
level of dwelling completions, and on
willingness of developers to fund
“affordable” stock
• Need for multi-billion £ rise in public subsidy
The draft London Plan
• Transport - costs
–
–
–
–
–
–
East London Line: c£1.5 billion
CrossRail 1: £4 to £8 billion (Options…)
Thameslink: £1 to £2 billion
CrossRail 2: £4 to £6 billion
OrbiRail: ?
Bus subsidy will need to rise from £250m to
£1bn per year…..
The draft London Plan
• Housing, transport infrastructure required
by London Plan would be very costly
• Funding would be required for both, and for
new schools, hospitals
• Central government funding for London has
fallen from 16.5 to 16 per cent of UK total
in past five years
The draft London Plan
• Tax resources available to the Mayor of
London:
– £0.55 billion (2002-03)
• Total council tax of Mayor and boroughs
– £3.5 billion (2002-03)
• Treasury tax take:
– UK: £400 billion
– London only: c£60 billion
The draft London Plan
• Achievement of London Plan thus requires
major Treasury investment in London
– Olympics fiasco
– Stalled Thameslink, CrossRail and East London
line projects
• PPP for Tube delivers only from 2012 onwards
– No major rise in housing funding for 2003-04
– Cuts in London’s RSG for 2003-04 and beyond
– Chancellor not well disposed to London?
The draft London Plan
The London Plan problem
• To achieve the Plan’s objectives, central
government will have to increase public
expenditure on London
• No evidence this will happen
• Either London will have to be given new
means to fund own investments, or….
• The random, chaotic, development of the
1990s will continue