Transcript Transport and Regional Integration: European Experience

Transport and Regional
Integration: European
Experience
Stephen Perkins
20 October 2011, Tokyo
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Three Transformative Regional Projects
Crossrail
Rail
13 m people
€ 15 bn
2017
Oresund
Road / Rail
Sea crossing
4 m people
€ 3 bn
July 2000
Metro du Grand Paris
Express metro
12 m people
€ 20 bn + € 12 bn upgrades
2025
3.6 million
people
40km
Metro Grand Paris
40km
40km
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Do we know how to Measure the Impact of
Transformative Projects on Jobs and Growth?
• CBA traditionally captures all impacts as users
are willing to pay the full economic value of
transport services used
• Are there GDP / productivity impacts not
captured in direct user benefits?
– Time savings
– Congestion relief
• Macro studies find an infrastructure/growth link
• If increased infrastructure investment accelerates
growth, this needs to be reflected in demand
forecasts
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Forecasting is Difficult
Some factors
- Oil crises
- Downturns
- Price competition
1999
1967
1978
1987
Source: Tom Petersen 2011
1991
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Induced Traffic
• Failure to anticipate it can result in project making
congestion worse not better
• Over-estimating it results in optimism bias
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Two Key Potential Effects
• Competition and returns to economic density
• Non marginal nature of projects creates transport
user behaviour change not captured in the model
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Competition
• New link in a network unlikely to affect competition
in industrial or service industry markets
• New regional network or high quality link between
regions can increase competition
• Poor transport can be a shield to competition
• Prices fall but peripheral or weaker end can suffer
Agglomeration
• Inter regional link: similar 2 way impact
• Intra-regional enhancement: reinforce agglomeration
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Agglomeration Studies
• Need a lot of data at a detailed level to make the
transport productivity/economic output link
• Most look at industry, but service sector more
important to many economies and shows bigger
agglomeration impacts
• Impacts may be 10 to 20% on top of CBA,
Dan Graham’s survery
• Plus Agglomeration -> productivity -> higher VoT
for business travel and commuting
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Can we add a general multiplier?
• Transformative projects most likely to show
agglomeration benefits
• Big projects can carry costs of agglomeration
studies, and input/output modelling: LUTI and CGE
• But size is not everything
– Small “unlocking projects” can have disproportionately large
impacts
– Some large projects have little impact on key effects, and just
result in large direct user benefits
– Infrastructure reaching service sector centres will have more
agglomeration benefits than linking industrial centres
• Case by case according to nature of project
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Understand the nature of the project
• Point to point high speed rail ≠ Crossrail or SGP
• Oresund designed not to link two cities but create a
region
• Evidence from French TGV studies not very
conclusive
– Smaller changes than expected, especially in feeder areas
– Major regional centres gain at expense of weaker ones
– Transfer from air
• Project boundaries
– Relocation of benefits
– Tax revenues
– Transfers : Lyon to Paris ≠ New York to London?
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CBA+ or Alternative Model?
• Crossrail: CBA+ (incremental improvement on
present network)
• SGP: model new network mobility pattern
• HSR: simple financial appraisal if majority of
benefits users an no congestion relief
• Other issues:
–Jobs in the crisis,
–growth but when,
–post crisis demand different?
• Unlocking growth
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References
• The Wider Economic Benefits of Transport, ITF 2008
– Roger Vickerman, Dan Graham
• The Future for Interurban Passenger Transport, ITF 2009
– Jacques Thisse, How Transport Costs Shape Economic Activity
• Crossrail Business Case, UK Department for Transport
– http://www.dft.gov.uk/topics/crossrail/
• Oresund Fixed Link Evaluation, TRANSTALK
• Oresund Before and After Study, Tom Petersen, KTH
• Oresund Evaluations, VINNOVA
• Major Transport Infrastructure Projects and Regional
Economic Development, Roundtable 1-2 Dec 2011, Paris
• Les impacts Economiques et Sociaux du TGV, Yves Crozet
• EC EVATREN Evaluating the State of the Art in
Investment for Transport and Energy Networks
Thank you
Stephen Perkins
T +33 (0)1 45 24 94 96
E [email protected]
Postal address
2 rue Andre Pascal
75775 Paris Cedex 16