Transcript Slide 1

2009 Priorities & issues
Crossrail 2
John Dickie
Supporting London’s growth
Crossrail 2 - overview
1. What is it?
2. Why is it needed?
3. Where would it go?
4. When could it be operational?
5. How will it happen?
1, What is Crossrail 2?
2, Why is Crossrail 2 needed
• London growing – 8.17m today; 9.66m in 2031
• Serious crowding projected on tube & rail
• Emergence of HS2 – terminus at Euston
• Review of safeguarded Chelsea-Hackney route in 2014
• Conclusion of LF report – forecast demand requires
additional investment in London’s transport network
beyond currently committed plans
2, Tube crowding in 2031 without Crossrail 2
2, Rail crowding in 2031 without Crossrail 2
2, Is there an alternative?
• TfL & NR looked at ‘counter-factuals’:
• Underground and DLR extensions hugely challenging,
with marginal benefits on crowding
• Few options on national rail – Waterloo remodelling,
longer trains, new line.
• Limited alternative options. All have high costs without
significant benefits
• Conclusion – strong case for Crossrail 2 to provide stepchange in SW-NE capacity
3, Where would Crossrail 2 go?
The 1991/ 2008 safeguarded route
3, Crossrail 2 route options long list
3, Crossrail 2 ‘metro’ option
3, Crossrail 2 ‘regional’ option
3, Costs and benefits of route options
• Costs represent very early stage estimates (2012 prices):
Metro option
Regional option
Cost estimate
£9.4 bn
£12.0 bn
Cost estimate with
66% optimism bias
£15.7 bn
£19.7 bn
• Transport benefits derive from shorter journey times, new
trips and less crowded journeys. Also wider benefits through
stimulating economy to be more productive:
Metro option
Regional option
Benefit to cost ratio
1.2:1
1.8:1
BCR including WEBs
3.5:1
4.1:1
3, Commentary on route options
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Crossrail 2 looks good value for money
No engineering showstoppers identified so far
Regional option brings significantly greater benefits
Rail integration challenges in SW look manageable
Interesting options in NE for new connectivity
HS2 interchange at Euston appears feasible
Conclusion of London First report: regional scheme provides
significantly higher benefits and is strongly preferable
4, When could Crossrail 2 be operational?
• Summer 2014 - Review of safeguarded route
• 2014-15: Planning work on preferred route option
• Late 2015: Public consultation on preferred option
• 2016-19: Detailed design, further consultation and
application for planning powers
• 2020-2030: Construct and test Crossrail 2
• Early 2030s: Crossrail 2 opens to the public
5, How will Crossrail 2 happen?
The case for the construction of Crossrail 2 is uncontestable
Here in London we’re digging Crossrail, the largest urban
infrastructure project in Europe. But we will do more – looking at
the case for Crossrail 2 linking London from North to South
The government is committing £2 million to support a funding and
financing study into Crossrail 2. The challenge for the Mayor of
London now, is to determine how at least half of the cost of the
scheme can be met through private sources, ensuring that it will be
affordable to the UK taxpayer.”
5, Funding and financing – Crossrail 1
2010 CSR agreed funding envelope of £14.8bn. Key elements of
funding package include:
• TfL/ GLA - £7.1bn. Includes direct contribution from TfL and
contributions from Business Rate Supplement (£4.1bn),
section 106 and Community Infrastructure Levy (£600m)
• DfT grant - £4.7bn
• Network Rail – up to £2.3bn worth of works on rail network
• Additional contributions from key beneficiaries: City of
London, BAA, Canary Wharf Group, Berkeley Homes.
• Over 60% of funding from Londoners and London business
• London businesses contribute £5bn overall
5, Key funding issues
• Scope and case for taxpayer contribution:
o From DfT (national economic / wider SE benefits)
o via Network Rail funding (reflecting capacity pressures)
• Scope for passenger contribution (additional demand + higher fares)?
• BRS – scope for raising additional debt from existing tax?
• Potential for greater fiscal devolution to London
o Council tax?
o Other property taxes?
o Fiscally neutral – but borrowing against growth is challenging
• New taxes?
• Developer contributions
o Mayoral CIL
o Borough CIL
o Intensification of development along the route?
• Other ‘direct’ beneficiaries (who?)
2009 Priorities & issues
John Dickie