Transcript Slide 1

APEC International Conference on
Natural Resources and Infrastructure Management for Agriculture
August 6-8, 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Enhancing Food Security Through
Sustainable Natural Resources and
Infrastructure Management for
Agriculture from FAO Perspective
H. Konuma
Assistant Director General
FAO Regional Office for Asian and the Pacific
Bangkok, Thailand
Outline of my presentation
• Review of current global and regional food
security situation
• Outlook of future food security towards 2050
• Challenges ahead
• Role of natural resource and infrastructure
management for food security
• Recommendations and conclusions
3
4
5
• Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day) in total
population dropped
fromconsumers
50% to 22% between 1990 and
Poor
2009 in Asia
• However, success in economic growth did not result in
alleviating hunger, and resulted in Inequitable distribution
of benefit of economic growth
• Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least
developed and middle income countries
• Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion
people world-wide, particularly children
• More than one billion people over weight globally , suffering
from diabetes and non-communicable diseases
• New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and
volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion
(as much as 60-70 %) of income for food
6
Food prices are high and volatile
Food prices are high and volatile
(still remains 2 times high from
10 years ago)
World population
12000
2.50
10000
2.00
8000
1.50
6000
millions
1.00
4000
0.50
2000
0.00
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
0
developed
NothAfrica and the Middle East
South Asia
percentage annual growth rate (right scale)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and Caribb
Eastern Asia
Source: UN, 2011
8
Food consumption
(Kcal/person/day)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1969/71
1979/81
1990/92
2005-07
2030
2050
Industrial countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East-North Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia
East Asia
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
9
Urbanization (60% of world population would
live in cities by 2030, and nearly 70% by 2050)
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
billions
3.0
2.0
1.0
Rural
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0.0
Urban
Source: UN, 2011
10
Past and projected increases
in global production (food production need to increase by
60% (or 77% in developing countries alone) by 2050
60
world
170
2005/072050
(projected)
77
developing
countries
317
developed
countries
19612005/07
(observed)
24
56
0
percent
100
200
300
400
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
11
Sources of production increase :91% ( or 85% for
developing countries alone) is expected to come
from existing arable land= environmental pressure
120.0
100.0
Yields increases
between 2005/07 and
2050
80.0
60.0
Crop intensity increases
between 2005/07 and
2050
40.0
20.0
Area increase between
2005/07 and 2050
0.0
(percent)
-20.0
world
developing
developed
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
12
Challenge for food security
A huge task lies with countries and governments,
international and national organizations, national
research agricultural institutes, universities, and
private sector, etc. to:
1. Increase the food production (sustainable
intensification) to meet future demands
2. Cope with environmental pressure, and sustain
and manage natural resources base
3. Improve people’s accessibility (especially for
the poor) to food at affordable prices
4. Overcome existing challenges and constraints
such as………………
13
Only 5% (or 70million ha ) of existing arable land
can be expanded mainly in Sub-Sahara Africa and
Latin America towards 2050
700
million ha
600
Arable land in use, 2005/07
500
Additional land projected to be in use, 2050
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Developed
countries
sub-Saharan
Africa
Latin America
Near East /
North Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Source: Bruinsma, 201114
Water scarcity and increasing water use for
agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water use
15
Water Shortages
–
In Asia, by 2025, 15 million ha of irrigated lands would face
“physical water scarcity”
– Causes:
• Excess ground water extraction for agriculture
• Increased use by industries
– Decline of water availability would Impact on:
• Agriculture
• Hydropower generation
• Industrial development
• Health sector
• Employment
16
Area equipped for irrigation (limited
expansion by 6% (20million ha) by 2050
(million ha)
1961/63 2005/07 2050
World
Developed
Developing
Sub-Saharan
Latin America
Near East/North
Africa
South Asia
East Asia
million ha
142
302
38
68
103
235
3
6
8
20
15
37
40
31
90
88
322
69
253
7
23
34
93
96
1961 2005/07
-2007
-2050
annual growth (% p.a.)
1.8
0.1
1.5
0
1.9
0.2
1.9
0.5
2.1
0.3
1.9
2.1
1.6
0.2
0.1
0.2
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
17
Land degradation
– All human activity is based
on land and soil resources
– Productive economic factor
in agriculture, forestry,
grazing, fishing and mining
– About 2 million hectares of
rainfed and irrigated
agricultural lands are lost
annually
18
On cultivable land area
– Agricultural land covers 38 % of the world's land area, and arable
land being only 1/3rd of agricultural land
– Per capita arable land availability over years
1959 - 4.9 ha per person
2006 - 2.2 ha per person
2039 - 1.1 ha per person
- Land degradation due to climate change, manmade causes,
salinization, acidification, over-exploitation coupled with land tenure
systems, etc. lowers land productivity
19
Soil Erosion and Control
Soil erosion Washington State
Wind erosion
Soil erosion at Kaiwaka, Northland
India - loses 6,000 million tons
of soil annually
Stagnation of productivity growth: Yields need to
increase over average 0.8%/year towards 2050,
compared to 1.7% in past decades
4.5
4.0
4
3.5
3.5
3.0
3
2.5
2.5
2.0
2
1.5
1.5
1.0
1
0.5
0.5
0.0
1961/63 - 2005/07
0
1961/63
cereals (tons/ha)
2005/07
2050
soybeans (tons/ha)
2005/07 - 2050
cereals (growth % per year)
soybeans (growth % per year)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
21
Loss of Forest Resources
– More than half the earth's land area was once forested. But
at present, it is less than one-third
– Forests are cleared and degraded at a rate of 300 000
hectares per week
22
Impact of reduced forest cover
• Loss of biodiversity (valuable gene pool), valuable
timber and non-timber products, etc.
• Loss of soil carbon – leading to global warming & soil
fertility decline
• Forests conserve water. Loss of water resources
leading to crop failures & desertification(
• Increased soil erosion due to wind and rain
• Many others...
The number of natural disasters occurring
worldwide has increased
400
Number of Disasters
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Caribbean
Europe
Latin America
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0
North America
Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
Many constraints affecting food production
Droughts
Floods
Population
in water
shortage
areas
25
Negative impact of climate change
“worse case” 2080 scenario:
• less harvested area, up to 39% (World) and -29%
(developing countries)
• up to 130 million more
undernourished in S-SH Africa
Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)
Source: IPCC (2007)
26
Constraints – weeds, insect pests & diseases
Weeds
Insect pests
Diseases
Nutrient deficiencies
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be
doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing
competition of land and water use with food production, in
addition to competition of use of food grains between bioethanol and food/feed
30
Food price volatility: Corn future market at
Chicago Board of trade, in late July 2012 jumped
over 50% in 6 weeks since June 2012
32
Summary
• Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2
billion people by 2050, but
– huge investment agricultural research and infrastructure is
required to increase productivity and remove constraints
– Reduce post-harvest losses and waste
--access to food by the poor remains a critical issue which
requires targeted approach; safety net
• Yields increases may be attained, but natural
resource base must be sustained and its
management needs to be improved substantially to
counteract competition ,over use, etc
• Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel
development, emergence of trans-boundary diseases
and climate changes are major sources of
uncertainty
33
Recommendations
• Promote sustainable crop and agriculture
intensification
• Maintain soil health by restoring the soil resources
through natural processes, and judicious use of
mineral fertilizers, organic materials, and crop
species
• Conserve and promote the use of indigenous
varieties that have been especially developed for
specific ecological conditions and farm level
situations
• Promote agricultural research and technology for
adaptation and mitigation to climate changes
34
Recommendations (2)…
• Promote climate smart agriculture to match the
production needs with the changing environment using
ecosystems approach
• Promote water management efficiency and water saving
technology
• Enhance the institutional and human resource capacity
to cope with crop and animal diseases
• Promote sustainable consumption and reduce food
waste
• Improve farmer education for adoption of R&D findings
• Promote participatory natural resource management
35
Recommendations (3)…
• Strengthen sustainable management of forests and
tree species, with reforestation, protection of forest
cover and use of agro-forestry systems
• Integrate crops and livestock for improving nutrient
cycling
• Increase investments in technology, infrastructure
development and dissemination of knowledge
• Strengthen policies and institutions to facilitate
farmers, and for private sector to work
complementarily
• Increase gender equity to access of resources, goods
and services
36
Recommendations (4)….for infrastructure
management for agriculture
• Promote irrigation expansion and rehabilitation,
combined with irrigation modernization, promotion
of water management efficiency and development of
water saving technology
• Reduce post-harvest losses through the promotion of
improved infrastructure including food storage, silos,
load and transport, cold chains, preservation and
processing facility, etc.
• Promote value chains and connectivity including the
construction of markets, rural loads, transport
facilities, etc.
• Develop sustainable farm mechanization and
processing technology and strategies
Strategic priority areas
• Food security and nutritional security
• Strengthening agricultural production and rural
development
• Enhancing equitable, productive and sustainable
natural resource management and utilization
• Improving capacity to respond to food and
agricultural threats and emergencies
• Coping with the impact of climate change on food
and agriculture
38
Conclusions
• Agriculture is the key to food security and nutrition for all,
and food is a essential basic human right which influences
social stability and world security.
• Agriculture uses natural resources such as land and
water ,which are fundamental requirements for food
production. Without sustainable natural resource
management and infrastructure development, agriculture
would unable to sustain nor produce sufficient food to
meet the needs of growing population.
• The world is facing unprecedented challenge of food
insecurity which requires concerted efforts and team
work by all partners and all citizens on the planet.
• FAO is committed to work together and assist APEC
member countries to achieve its goal to attain food
security as a strong partner to ensure food for all for our
future generations.
39
Thank you