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European Forward Looking Activities
(FLA)
AUGUR stakeholder workshop
Brussels, 17-18 November2011
Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO
European Commission, DG Research and Innovation
[email protected]
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Modesty is a must
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Financial and economic crises
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Technological developments
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Social habits
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Political movements
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…
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EU Forward Looking Activities
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Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology
Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective
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A long tradition in the EU
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European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 »
EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA)
Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI)
European Commission
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Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”
Europe is at a
crossroads:
either we keep
and strengthen
the role as one
of the main
global actors, or
we become an
“increasingly
irrelevant
outgrowth on
the Asian
continent”
Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif
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Largest countries by 2025
(100 million or over)
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China (1453)
India (1431)
EU-27 (517)
USA (358)
Indonesia (263)
Pakistan (246)
Brazil (214)
Nigeria (210)
Bangladesh (195)
Source: UN
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Russia (132)
Mexico (123)
Japan (120)
Ethiopia (119)
Philippines (117)
Egypt (105)
Not a single European
country in this list
Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe, mais
certains ne le savent pas (Paul-Henri Spaak)
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“Nobody cares” – Consumption share
0,35
0,3
Japan
ASEAN
USA
0,25
India
USA
EU27
0,2
RoLAC
Brazil
0,15
China
EU27
Russia
Japan
0,1
MiddleEast
India
PPWCAsia
Turkey
0,05
China
0
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (Global Europe 2030/2050), MIRAGE model, L. Fontagné
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EU energy imports
Source: European Commission, DG Energy (TREN)
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Evolving regimes
1840-1914
 1914-1945
 1945-1980
 1980-2008
 2008-…
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Imperial liberalism
Mercantilism and war economy
State interventionism and socialism
Liberal capitalism
State capitalism?
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (POLINARES), R. Dannreuther
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European Commission
Forward Looking Activities
A long tradition:
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FAST and Cellule de Prospective / BEPA
Multiannual Financial Perspectives
Long-term planning (SF, FP,…)
Europe 2020
Roadmap to a low carbon economy in 2050
Transports 2050, Energy Roadmap
JRC (cf.IPTS)
European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA)
FP7 – Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities with
both qualitative and quantitative exercises
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Objectives of EU FLA
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To anticipate new societal challenges
To advise on the main changes that the World and
Europe will have to face in the next decades
To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts
To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU
proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)
To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including
the potential technological and social breakthroughs
To shape a more sustainable future
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Controversies on EU FLA
Baseline / Reference scenario?
 Objectivity and bias among experts?
 Clarity and opacity of models?
 Conventional thinking and beyond it?
…
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SSH Expert Groups
Three Expert Groups led by DG Research and
Innovation (Social Sciences and Humanities) in close
cooperation with BEPA:
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The World in 2025 – report published in 2009
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EuroMed-2030 – report published 2010
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Global Europe 2050 – report tbp in 2011 and final
conference on 28 November 2011
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SSH research projects
The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR)
 European Foresight Platform (EFP)
 The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)
 Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON,
SESTI, CIVISTI, VERA)
 Wild cards and weak signals, radical changes (IKNOW and
INFU)
 Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA, GLOBALIQ)
 Security and defence (SANDERA)
 The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)
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Evolution of world R&D expenditure
450
PPS in Billions € at 2000 prices
400
350
US
300
250
EU - 27
200
China
150
Japan
100
South Korea
50
0
2004
Note: (China excluding Hong-Kong)
2008
2012
2016
Source: European Commission, DG RTD
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EU population in 2060
(000 people)
The number of people
over 65 will double in 50
years (from 85 million in
2008 to 151 million in
2060)
The "oldest old" (85 and
over) will almost triple
The share of health
expenditures in the EU is
expected to increase from
8% of GDP today to 13% in
2060
Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)
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2012 Calls for Proposals
Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH)
New calls for proposals published on 20 July 2011:
FP7-SSH-2012-2
(small-medium project < 2.5 M€)
Forward looking tools and methods for answering
major societal challenges (including emerging issues,
weak signals and disruptive factors)
Deadline: 2 February 2012 at 17:00 (Brussels time)
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More information on
http://ec.europa.eu/research/socialsciences/forward-looking_en.html
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