Transcript DG TREN - GasNaturally

A 2030 framework
for climate and
energy policies
1
Energy
The 2030 framework will build on the 2050 Roadmaps
- Concrete proposals by the end of 2013
2050
Roadmaps
2011
2030 Green
Paper
March 2013
Proposals
for the 2030
framework
for climate
and energy
policies
September 2013
On-going discussions with Member States, EU institutions and
stakeholders
2
Early agreement on the 2030 framework is essential
Increased certainty for
Memeber States and reduce
regulatory risks for investors
Growth and jobs through
demand for efficient and low
carbon technologies
Definition of EU ambitions in
view of a new international
climate change agreement
3
The 2030 framework must ensure progress towards three objectives
Sustainability
Security of
energy supply
Competitiveness
Reduction of
emissions
Diversification of
fuels, supply
countries and routes
Affordable and
competitive prices
Reduction of energy
consumptions
Grid Stability
Promotion of new
technologies, growth
and jobs
Development of
alternative energy
sources
Adequate energy
infrastructures
Improved energy
efficinecy
The 2030 policy framework should take into account lesson learned from
the 2020 framework and the economic and political context of today
4
The EU is making good progress towards meeting the 2020 RES target
- But most Member States are still some distance away
60,00%
RES in 2010
50,00%
2020 RES Target
40,00%
30,00%
2020 target for the EU: 20%
20,00%
10,00%
Source: Eurostat
0,00%
Renewable sources accounted for 12.7% of the EU's energy consumption in 2010
5
EU energy consumption is going down, but 2020 target likely to be
missed with current policies
Source: European Commission
projections
6
Challenges in meeting 2020 targets - to be considered in the 2030 framework
Increasing concern about energy import dependency and rising energy prices
Stability and costs of renewables support schemes, impacts on the
internal energy market, on grid stability and capital allocation
Need for massive investments in energy transmission and distribution
infrastructure, e.g. due to renewables expansion
Differences between Member States in improving energy efficiency;
implementation of directives
Current large surplus of ETS allowances, resulting in a low carbon price
and low investment incentives
Need for coherence of policy instruments
7
"No Regrets" options from the Energy Roadmap 2050
More Energy
Efficiency
More
Renewables
More
infrastructures
8
(1) Energy savings throughout the system are crucial
Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)
Source: European Commission
Current policy initiatives
Decarbonisation scenarios
9
(2) The share of renewables rises steadily over time
Source: European Commission
Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption (in %)
The share of renewables is between 28% and 31% in the decarbonisation scenarios.
10
(3) Large investment for power generation is needed ~ 2.5 trillion
Euros up to 2050.
Source: European Commission
Cumulative investment expenditure for power generation from 2011 to 2050
(in billion €2008)
More investments also needed in grid infrastructure, storage, etc.
11
Import dependency falls, especially after 2030 with electification of
transport
Net energy imports (in Mtoe)
Current policy initiatives
Source: European Commission
Decarbonisation scenarios
All decarbonisation scenarios will reduce the EU’s energy import dependency.
12
These are the main issues to be considered for the 2030 framework
Targets
• Should climate and energy targets be set for 2030?
• If so, which ones?
Instruments
• Which are the most appropriate policy instruments to meet
potential new targets for the period up to 2030?
• How can Research and Innovation best support the 2030
framework?
Competitiveness &
Security of Supply
• How can EU policies take account of international
developments? Eg. Climate negotiations
• How can internationally competitive and affordable energy
prices be ensured?
Effort Sharing
• How can an equitable distribution of efforts be ensured
among Member States?
• How to best consider the different investment capacities of
industry sectors and consumer groups?
13
Electricity prices – the US is increasing its advantage…
Evolution of end-user electricity prices for industry, taxes excluded
150
OECD Europe,
137.7
Source: IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, 4th quarter 2012
140
130
Japan, 116.2
120
110
USA, 95.9
100
90
80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Q3 2012
14
…in part due to the shale gas boom
Source: European Commission
- US wholesale prices for gas are 3-4 times lower than in the EU
15
15
End-user electricity prices for households differ substantially between MS
Source: Eurostat
- "non-energy" component is very significant
16
Source: Eurostat
Lower differences between MS for industry end-user prices
17
Building on the past towards the future….!
2006
03/2006
Green Paper
on a future
common
European
Energy Policy
2007
01/2007
Commission
proposal for
2020 climate
and energy
package
2008
2009
12/ 2008
Head of State
and
Government
reached
agreement on
the package
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11/2010
Commission
Communication on the
Energy 2020 Strategy
12/2011
Commission
Communication
Energy Roadmap 2050
03/2006
Green Paper
More concrete
proposals for the
2030 framework
04/2009
RES Directive
06/2011
Energy Efficiency Directive
Window of
opportunity
2015
Global Climate Change
Agreements
18
Concrete steps towards the 2030 framework in 2013
Jan.
Adoption of the Green Paper
consultation procedure
Council meetings
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
22 May
22-24 European
April Council
Update of reference scenario
Impact Assessment
Assessment of responses to
the consultation
Commission proposals for
the 2030 framework
19
Back up
20
Primary energy consumption*, Mtoe
Source: European Commission
Progress towards the 2020 Energy Savings target
1900
1850
1800
business
1842 Mtoe as
usual 2007
Projections from 2007
Projections from 2009
20% EE objective
1750
1700
1678
Mtoe
1650
1600
2009
GAP
1550
1474 Mtoe
1500
1450
1400
2005
2010
* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses
2015
-20%
objective
2020
21
The share of renewables rises steadily over time
Source: European Commission
Share of renewables in primary energy consumption (in %)
22
Retail electricity prices paid by households and industry in 2012
Note: Euro/kWh, first half of 2012, consumption bands DC and IC, all taxes included
Source of data: Eurostat
23