Transcript Power Choices Reloaded

Power Choices
Reloaded
Summary presentation by Prof. Pantelis CAPROS
(E3MLab)
EURELECTRIC, Brussels May 13, 2013
2
Decarbonisation Roadmaps for the EU
3
These Roadmaps show
common results:
Decarbonisation to the horizon of 2050 is feasible using known
technologies; some have to become commercially mature
Carbon-neutral power by 2050 is achievable, with major CO2
reduction escalating during 2025 to 2040
All power generation technology options are needed
simultaneously to reduce transition costs
Robust energy and carbon markets, infrastructure development
and policies to foster energy efficiency support restructuring
Intelligent electricity systems could replace direct use of fossil
fuels, in mobility and heat uses
Power Choices Reloaded (PCR) has updated Power
Choices of 2009 and has focused on the impacts of
deviations from optimal decarbonisation pathway
PCR assumes
availability of all
technologies and
options for
emission reduction
Sensitivities have
been quantified as
deviations
from PCR due to
failures and delays
PCR updated
assumptions on:
• Technology progress
and costs
• Fuel prices
• Economic trends
• Nuclear and CCS
• Policies
PCR and sensitivities
are economic and
technical energy
system projections for
all EU countries until
2050, based on
PRIMES model
The Reference scenario
mirrors currently adopted
policies
• ETS with allowances reducing
by 1.74% per year until 2050
• 20% Renewables Share by
2020
• Non ETS Effort Sharing
Decision for 2020
• Eco-design, efficiency and car
regulation legislation
• No new policies after 2020
4
5
Cumulative GHG emissions matter for
climate change mitigation:
all decarbonisation cases deliver equal carbon budget
6000
Reference
5000
Power Choices
Reloaded
The Lost Decade
4000
Reference
Limited financing
3000
Barriers to EE
2000
Limited XB Trade
Total GHGs emissions in Mt CO2eq
1000
RES target in 2030
CO2 price driven
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
6
Deviating from optimal pathway
implies higher costs
RES TARGET IN 2030
1,231
CO2 PRICE DRIVEN
145
LIMITED XB TRADE
316
BARRIERS TO EE
1,193
LIMITED FINANCING
2,448
THE LOST DECADE
3,932
POWER CHOICES RELOADED
REFERENCE
-1,957
Difference of Cumulative Energy system costs 2011-2050 from
Power Choices Reloaded scenario in bn €'10
excl. auction and disutility
Note:
The emission reduction projections do not include possible reduction
of fossil fuels prices driven by worldwide climate change mitigation
7
In Power Choices Reloaded all options are combined to
reduce emissions:
39% from energy efficiency
32% from Renewables
11% from nuclear, 6% from CCS and 13% from natural gas
Mt CO2
PCR: Decomposition of avoided CO2
relative to 2005
5000
% of Total
6
Fossil Fuel Mix
11
18
%
cumulatively
13
6
CCS
4000
38
10
34
32
28
Renewables
3000
15
13
7
Nuclear
2000
Policy-induced
Energy Efficiency
1000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Market-driven
Energy Efficiency
26
14
26
17
16
21
2020 2030 2050
11
21
18
'2010-2050'
The Power Choices Reloaded
suggests full decarbonisation
of power generation
The ETS allowances annual
change until 2050 would be
required to become -3%
instead of -1.74%, assuming no
set-aside
8
Reference
Power Choices Reloaded
0.38
0.31
0.24
0.23
0.18
0.15
0.08
0.06
3000
2500
EUA Allowances
0.07
0.01
Current EUA: -1.74% pa
Required EUA: -3% pa
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
The Reference scenario
already projects a very strong
reduction of CO2 emissions in
power generation due to the
ETS: in 2050, -77% compared
to 2010 levels
Carbon intensity of Power generation
tCO2/MWhe+MWhth
Decarbonisation of
electricity
generation
New uses of electricity
in decarbonisation
context
% electricity in transport sector
Reference
25.5
Power Choices Reloaded
22.3
18.5
12.3
7.9
Electricity
for
transportation
• Reducing emissions
• Increasing energy
efficiency
• Reducing dependence on
oil
1.8
1.9
3.2
1.9
5.3
2.0
2010
2015
2020
2025
4.6
5.3
5.9
2.7
3.7
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
% electricity in stationary final energy
demand
47
45
42
39
Electricity
for
stationary
uses
• Substitution of fossil fuels
• Higher overall efficiency
35
32
Hydrogen
from RES
Power
9
34
30
2010
• Mixed in natural gas supply
allows lower emissions and
maintains gas use in small
CHP and in domestic sector
• Perfect storage means for
variable RES
33
36
37
36
37
Reference
2015
2020
2025
2030
38
39
40
Power Choices Reloaded
2035
2040
2045
2050
% of gross electricity used for H2
production
9.5
11.7
6.3
3.7
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
A systems approach
with electricity as
main pivot
1
0
Electricity Demand in TWh
5000
4500
Electromobility
Reference
Starting with emissions of
350g/kWh in 2010, the
power sector will deliver
about 10g/kWh in 2050 in
the Power Choices Reloaded
scenario.
4000
Transport
Hydrogen
3500
Energy Branch
3000
Tertiary
2500
Households
Reaching the wholeeconomy 2050 goal requires
a significant share of final
energy use to switch to
electricity, notably in the
transport sector and heating,
thus delivering emissions
reductions and efficiency
improvements
2000
1500
1000
Industry
500
Distr. Losses
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Completion of the
internal market
and grid
infrastructure
Volume of electricity trade
(TWh)
652
Efficient decarbonisation requires
sharing of resources in the EU
through unobstructed XB trade
542
462
The reference scenario already
assumes implementation of the
ENTSOE infrastructure plan.
Additional grid investment, post
2020, is assumed in PCR for
exploiting RES (e.g. offshore wind)
and for integrating decentralized
RES
Trade volumes in the EU reach 14%
of electricity demand in the Power
Choices scenario compared to
7.5% in the Reference by 2050
371
330
300
259
2020
2030
Reference
2040
2050
Power Choices Reloaded
11
12
PCR: Structure of power generation
Already in the Reference
scenario, ETS drives strong
restructuring of power
generation in the long term
In Power Choices Reloaded
additional decarbonisation
is achieved mainly through
higher RES and CCS post
2030
Gas plays a key role in
balancing and reserve
services
Pumped storage increases
and in the long term
hydrogen storage emerges
100%
90%
Hydro
80%
Variable RES
70%
Biomass
60%
Gas w/o CCS
50%
Gas-CCS
40%
Oil
30%
Coal w/o CCS
20%
Coal-CCS
10%
Nuclear
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reference: Structure of power generation
100%
90%
Hydro
80%
Variable RES
70%
Biomass
60%
Gas w/o CCS
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gas-CCS
Oil
Coal w/o CCS
Coal-CCS
Nuclear
The Lost decade
The Lost decade assumes a complete lack of action in the
decade 2020-2030, therefore the entire decarbonisation
action has to occur in the last two decades
Infrastructure, power sector decarbonisation, mobility
electrification and technology R&D, as well as energy
efficiency in the demand side sectors will have to
develop in a very short period of time post 2030
The changes required in the system from 2030 to obtain
the same cumulative emissions as the Power Choices
Reloaded scenario lead this scenario to being barely
feasible in true life
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14
<1%
1 to 2%
2 to 3%
3 to 6%
>6%
The Lost Decade
2.4
1.1
Considerable adverse
effects on costs and
performance (total cost
2% of GDP above PCR)
6.6
7.7
8.6
1.5
N
1.7
K
1.1
2.0
5.5
2.9
1.6
5.1
2.3
3.7
3.2
1.0
2.9
4.1
7.7
na
YU
na
1.7
1.8
10.7
n
K
n
1.9
2.5
F
F
3.0
Fre
2
Increase of energy system costs as
percentage of GDP in the Lost decade
compared to the PCR
The considerable
differences are mainly
due to the delay in acting
in the demand side
(efficiency) and to lockins due to lower
investment and delays in
infrastructure
development
<5.0%
5.0%...7.0%
The Lost decade
7.0%...9.0%
9.0%...11.0%
>11.0%
Final consumers in the Lost
decade scenario pay
significantly higher amounts
for purchasing energy products
10.2%
6.2%
10.0%
6.9%
10.0
%
13.2%
N
8.7%
The large differences in the
Lost decade scenario are due
to the changes in final energy
demand which has to
recuperate a lack of action
until 2030.
The countries which pay the
most have the highest
difficulties in recuperating the
lost energy efficiency and in
dealing with the lack of
electrification in transport.
K
9.2%
7.5%
14.1%
12.8%
8.0%
10.9%
5.3%
8.5%
9.8%
9.0%
10.9%
10.7%
12.8%
na
YU
na
14.9%
7.8%
8.9%
n
K
n
11.0%
9.5%
F
F
14.4%
Fre
8
Increase of cumulative fuel purchase costs
by final consumers in the Lost decade
compared to the PCR
15
Failures involved in
the Lost Decade
case
•
•
Weak carbon market until
2030
Limited financing under
uncertainty hampering
investment
•
Market coordination failures
delaying infrastructure
•
Incompletion of IEM leading
to low XB trade
•
•
Slower pace of technology
progress
Barriers to Energy Efficiency
persisting up to 2030
16
200
190
Average Price of Electricity
after tax in €/MWh
Reference
Power Choices
Reloaded
Lost Decade
180
Limited Financing
170
Limited XB Trade
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Energy related investments in the
Power Choices Reloaded scenario
(Bilion Euro'10)
Investment in PCR
6000
Investment costs increase
substantially compared to
current levels
A large part of additional
investment will be carried
out in consumer premises
and for consumer vehicles
Investments are
compensated by lower fuel
purchase requirements as a
large part of investments
relate to energy saving
investments
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
00-10
20-30
30-40
Steam boilers
Power plants
Power grid investment
Additional Transport Investments (comp. to Reference
Tertiary
Residential
Industry
17
10-20
40-50
Economics of
Decarbonisation
•
•
Total energy system cost
cumulatively until 2050 (as % of GDP)
Affordable compared to the
Reference
0.18
Less expensive in the context of a
global climate action
•
Highly capital intensive in both
demand and supply
•
Timely infrastructure development
and coordination with emerging
new technologies
•
Consumers are required to spent
upfront in order to save on variable
costs
•
Except electricity, rest of energy
supply sectors see diminishing sales
•
Deviations from optimal trajectory
entail significant additional costs
0.20
0.79
0.41
0.27
0.86
0.15 0.13
18
Agenda for the
2020-2030 decade
19