Transcript Vision 2050

Vision 2050
The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path
By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi
& Ann Vikkelsoe
INFORSE-Europe
Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.org
International Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe
is a network of 55 NGOs.
INFORSE-Europe is supported by
EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others
Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002
Vision 2050 - Background
The world energy system:
 is beyond the environmental limits
 does not provide basic energy needs as light and
healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s
population
 To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit
global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century
 We should provide all with basic energy needs and
allow developing countries to develop, including use
of cheap energy supply
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Environmental Limit:
Climate Change
 To
be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC
century, we must limit global CO2 emissions to
about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century =
35 years of current consumption (assumed
climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC)
 The
climate sensitivity is commonly accepted
to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average
of 3.5ºC.
A Global Sustainable Scenario
CO2 (MtC)/y
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
19902000:
64 GtC
After 2000:
240 GtC
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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Scenario: Energy Services
9000
Industrialised countries
Developing countries
Energy Services
per capita
8000
7000
6000
5000
Transport
4000
El.+mechanical
3000
Medium+high t.
2000
Low temp.
1000
0
2000
2050
2000
2050
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Energy Demand
Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
several times before 2050: new generations of
equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology
learning can drive prices down.
 One exception is houses. In EU houses could use
only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will
require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat
consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2
 For transport is expected increase in efficiency from
todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break
energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions
together with electrical driven vehicles.
 Energy service demand will increase, also in
industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

Primary Energy (TWh/y)
50000
Industrialised countries
Developing countries
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
Nuclear
20000
Fossil
15000
Biomass
10000
Hydro
5000
Solar
0
Wind
2000
2050
2000
2050
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Energy Supply
Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000
MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe
less afterwards
Large wind power development programs are costeffective: extra costs today will be paid back with
future cost reductions due to technology learning.
Some sites give cost-effective electricity today.
Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then
grow 25% pr. year
Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total
Biomass can be used as transport fuel
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Gigawatt continues consumption
Renewable Energy Potential
10000
9000
8000
52200 GW
Solar centrals
7000
6000
PV on houses
Biomass
5000
Hydro
4000
3000
Windpower on farmland
Wind, off-shore etc.
2000
1000
0
Potential
Scenario
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Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)
25000
20000
Nuclear
15000
Fossil tot.
Hydro
Solar
10000
Wind
5000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Example – Denmark
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Electricity Supply - Denmark
8000
Electricty Production( kWh/person pr. year)
PV
7000
6000
5000
Wind/hydro/waves
4000
Biomass
Waste
3000
2000
Fossil
1000
0
1990
Statistic
s
1995
Proposal (Scenario)
2000
2005
2010
2015
Vision
2030
2050
Economy - DK scenario until 2030
 The
low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the
business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate
 It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate
 If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel
prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the
low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than
business as usual.
 expected lower growth in energy services: need for
decoupling of economy and energy services
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Example - Slovakia
600
500
Electricity
PJ/year
400
Heat
Biomass-Heat+fuel
300
Liquids-transport
Gas
200
Coal-black/brown
100
0
Today
Possible
consumption
2050
RE potential
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Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials:
Heat-fuel reneweables - 256 PJ
Electricity - renewables
101 PJ
Wood
Straw
Biogas
Energy
crops
Hydro
PV
Wind
Solar
thermal
Geothermal
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Energy Infrastructure
Electricity grid still needed, as today
 Electricity grid needs more regulation with many
decentralised production units ”intelligent grid”
 Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &
PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark
probably chemical storage after 2030
 New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps,
international energy trade
 Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier
 Because of large learning rates for the new
technologies, minimal costs.

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More on Infrastructure
decentralised power production, to use local
renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)
 more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in
energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030
 gas demand stable until 2025, then decline
 hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to
replace gas where local renewables insufficient
 some gas networks can be used for hydrogen
 heat networks to remain in densely built areas

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Vision 2050
simple spread-sheet model
 Based
on energy balance
 Trends for
RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels
 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval
2002
 Denmark, Slovakia and EU
2003
 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)
TABLE 1
Fuel
Oil products
Coal &
Coke
Year 2000
Orimul-
PJ Crude oil sion
Primary Production
Klimakorrektion (forbrug)
Refineries (conversion to end products)
Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights)
Net storage, reuse and statistical difference
Total Net supply
Oil, coal and gas sector
Exploitation own consumption, flaring
Refinaries own consumption
Electricity and
District heating stations
District heating sector
Geothermal stations
Condensing power stations
Cogeneration stations
RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal)
Hydrogen
Grid losses etc.
Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes
Transport
Road
Rail
Domestic aviation
Navigation
Defense
Production
Farming etc.
Manufacturing
Construction
Service sector
Private
Public
Housheholds
Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy
Total Consumption
Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5)
CO2-emissions (million ton CO2)
TABLE 4
Consumptions parameters Heated floorspace6) / Production
mill. m2
Private service
49,9
Public service
38,9
Households 1 (multifamily)
77,4
Households 2 (detached)
165,0
8)
Farming, etc.
Manufacturing8)
Construction
Total
8)
Petrocoke
Diesel+
Fueloil+ heating
waste oil oil
Petrol+
kerosene Jet fuel
Refinary Other oil
gas
products
LPG
764,53
0,86
- 346,27
- 416,62
- 1,64
- 0,00
33,54
0,61
35,01
5,67
1,12
6,79
0,57
69,78
- 61,31
11,05
20,09
5,15
139,19
9,26
1,97
155,57
0,01
99,76
- 14,89
2,97
87,85
21,59
- 18,56
0,06
3,09
Natural
gas 1)
0,08
8,06
- 4,66
0,10
3,58
0,05
15,56
15,61
0,25
23,35
- 1,50
22,09
13,63
10,07
3,53
310,30
6,59
158,43
7,49
169,45
- 120,68
- 3,11
193,10
25,03
35,01
1,27
1,60
1,09
0,04
2,83
0,33
4,55
0,05
0,31
20,30
136,67
0,01
90,89
1,98
0,15
12,03
68,66
3,08
1,51
0,01
6,76
35,01
80.000
2,80
Factor
100
100
100
100
0,01
0,01
0,01
6,79
6,79
92.000
0,62
2,03
8,34
0,04
0,26
0,12
0,04
12,34
20,09
78.000
1,57
3,37
0,37
24,62
8,95
6,39
3,38
2,00
33,29
154,10
155,56
74.000
11,51
86,08
0,01
0,05
0,00
0,00
0,14
0,10
0,03
0,02
0,01
1,40
87,85
87,85
73.000
6,41
0,53
1,94
1,16
3,09
3,09
73.000
0,23
0,23
1,83
0,17
0,06
0,06
0,70
3,58
3,58
65.000
0,23
1,23
11,16
15,61
56.900
0,89
22,09
0,05
12,43
169,45
95.000
16,10
3,81
33,46
0,21
4,29
2,09
30,33
74,19
193,10
56.900
10,99
Share
Specific
Net Heat
Fin. heat Share
gas, coal, Share
Share
Share
Share
consumption
consump Heat. Eff. consump oil
waste
RE7)
electricity district h. total
MJ/m2
Factor
PJ
%
PJ
%
%
%
%
%
%
0,49
100
24,4
83%
29,3
13%
20%
2%
3%
63%
100%
0,36
100
14,0
90%
15,6
14%
13%
4%
2%
66%
100%
0,50
100
39,0
93%
42,1
6%
11%
0%
2%
80%
100%
0,56
100
93,2
80%
116,3
28%
22%
17%
6%
27%
100%
100
100
37,5
72%
13%
9%
6%
100%
100
100
82,3
32%
54%
6%
8%
100%
100
100
6,85
330,0
97%
3%
100%