Transcript AFS - ADEA - Energy for Africa

The Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Jean-Pierre Favennec
IFP Professor – Consultant
Johannesburg – December 2, 2010
Summary
 Energy in the world
 Energy in Africa
 Energy in Southern Africa
Energy in the World
Recent changes :
- Reduction of CO2 emissions
- Limitations of oil production
- New gas situation
- Coal
- Renewables
Dated Brent price ($/b) –
January 1996 – July 2010
150
$/b
140
130
Weekly averages
120
Annual averages
110
100
97.6
90
80
65.1
70
72.5
60
61.1
50
54.5
40
30
20.7
19.1
20
10
0
28.8
28.4
96
97
Source : Platt’s
S 404*17 – July 2010
17.
7
12.
7
98
99
24.5
00
01
38.1
24.9
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
CO2 emissions
60
Emissions (Gt CO2)
Reference Scenario
Natural carbone sequestration
50
Captured carbon
Fuel switch
40
Wind, Solar, nuclear
Biofuels
30
Energy efficiency
20
Scenario
with reduction of emissions
10
0
1970
1990
Source : Commission Européenne
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Energy in Africa
World electricity generation 2006
 World total = 18 921 TWh
North America
1658
3531
CIS
5134
1786
Europe
682
World electricity production by
source (TWh)
Coal
7756
Natural Gas
3807
Nuclear
2792
Hydro
3035
Oil
1096
Renewable
435
Source : AIE
EL 101*1 – April 2009
588
959
Middle
East
2904
Asia OECD
China
Africa
1679
South and central
America
Asia non OECD
Energy consumption in Africa
Millions de tep
Mtoe
350
Electricity
Electricité(primary)
primaire
Coal
Charbon
300
Natural
gas
Gaz naturel
Oil
Pétrole
250
200
150
100
50
0
77
Source : BP Statistical Review
AF004 – October 2009
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
The energy divides
 Divide between Africa
and the rest of the world
(15% of world
population for 3% of
world energy
consumption)
 Divide between North
Africa-South Africa and
the rest of Africa
North and South Africa: two specific areas
7%
3%
 Divide between urban
and rural areas: Urban
areas look like energy
spots
Region energy consumption proportion
Energy barriers
Hydroelectricity in Africa
Potential
Energy Integration in Southern Africa
Existing situation
Needs in electricity
The Integrated Resource Plan
What about renewables?
Integration : benefits and existing pools
Southern Africa’s power
Industry and Interconnections
 An existing electrical
integration mostly
between Mozambique and
South Africa
W
Wind Power
T
Thermal Power Plant
H
Hydro Power Plant
N
Nuclear Power Plant
H
W
T
TT
Main power transmission line
Remarque : 1 circle = 3 power plants at least except nuclear
power plant for which 1 circle = 1 power plant
NT
Source : African Energy
H
T
TT
H
Southern African Power Pool
 South Africa represents 81% of SAPP in 2010 and will
remain at 77% of SAPP in 2025
The Integrated Resource Plan : Context and Description
 Obligation after National Energy Act of 2008
 Long term electricity capacity plan to develop a
sustainable electricity investment strategy for generation
capacity and transmission infrastructure for South Africa
over the next 25 years.




Demand-side management (DSM)
Pricing
Capacity provided by all generators (Eskom and independant
power producers)
Environment
The Integrated Resource Plan : Hypothesis
 GDP growth on average 4,6 % per year over the next 20
years

It requires from 30 439 MW to 52 724 MW of new capacity
depending on scenarios for 454 357GWh produced in 2030.

It assumes at least 3420 MW of demand side management
programmes
5 models studied to establish
the balanced revised scenario


A base case which minimise directs costs
3 emissions limits based scenarios




EM 1.0 : imposes an annual emission limit of 275 MT
EM 2.0 : imposes an emission limit of 275 MT of carbon dioxide by 2025 but
allows emissions to go to higher levels prior to 2025
EM 3.0 : imposes a tighter emission limit of 220MT of carbon dioxide from 2020
A Carbon Tax based scenario (CT 0.0) : imposes carbon taxes escalated to
2010 Rands an contained in the LTMS documents
Sources : DOE

2 others model were studied : a regional developement model and an
enhanced DSM model
The Integrated Resource Plan
Low Cost Scenario
Balanced Scenario
Low Carbon
Scenario
Funding (BUS$)
78
85 (+10%)
125 (+60%)
Carbon emissions
(MT)
380
275 (-30%)
220 (-40%)
3 scenarios
Generation mix by
2030
Capacity
development (MW)
The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges
 A huge amount of renewables capacity



Wind : 4 500 MW in the Balanced scenario up to 2019
Solar : 400 MW
Wind + Solar : 7 200 MW between 2019 and 2030
 Questions raised :




Is it possible to build such capacities : resources, technical
problems
Problem of cost and economic rentability?
Ability for quick construction and maintenance?
Problem of grid stability?
The Integrated Resource Plan : Challenges (2)
 Decentralised electricity not adressed
 Importance of transmission lines
Integration benefits
 Benefits : foster the development of the economy.
 Keys actions :

Develop infrastructures
 Most important partners :




Mozambique. There is already an important hydro production
(Caora Bassa) and new capacities will be built. Mozambique is also
supplying natural gas to RSA (Sasol)
Zambia (hydro potential)
Zimbabwe
Limited cooperation :


RDC. RSA is interested in electricity of Inga. But the Chinese
presence (exchange of raw materials against investments) makes
difficult this cooperation.
Angola
 Key issue : transmission
Euratom (1957)
 Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community)

Success :







Legal framework, safety standard uniformisation
Progressive enlargement of the cooperation
Broad development on innovative technology
Decrease in energy dependance
Efficient information centralisation about nuclear stocks and flows,
and investment
Fight against nuclear proliferation
Lacks :

Some legislative contents (about normalisation for example)
 Decision process
ECSC (1951)
 European Coal and Steel Community

Success :

Long term vision and comon process
•
•

Autonomous legal framework
•

Peace, stability, prosperity, solidarity
Efficient response during crisis
Uniform social protection and labour law
Lacks :

Emergence of great enterprises
 Difficulty for struggling on price non-accordance and for assuring
transparancy
 No equalization in salary
Benefits of integration
 In West Africa cost of kwh supposed to be reduced by 50
% if good interconnections between the different
countries of WAPP (West African Power Pool)
Thank you for your attention!