Transcript Slide 1

The Challenge of Energy and Environment
in China and the World
John P. Holdren
Teresa & John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Professor of Environmental Science & Policy
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Director
THE WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER
Panel Presentation for the
Harvard Alumni Association Global Series Meeting
Shanghai • 29 March 2008
Why is energy important?
Because…
• meeting basic human needs is important
• economic growth is important,
• the environment is important,
• international relations are important,
and energy is intimately entwined with all
four.
Economically…
• Affordable energy is a crucial ingredient of
sustained prosperity & sustainable development.
• Energy is ~10% of GDP, 10% of world trade, and
a large part of trade deficits in importing countries
• Costly energy → inflation, recession, frustration
of economic aspirations of the poor.
• Investments in energy-supply systems are ~$800
billion/yr worldwide; ~15% of gross domestic
investment in developing countries.
Environmentally…
• Energy supply = major contributor to dangerous &
difficult environmental problems from local to global
• Specifically, energy supply is the source of
– most indoor and outdoor air pollution, most acid rain
– much of the hydrocarbon and trace-metal pollution of
soil and ground water
– almost all of the oil humans add to the ocean
– most radioactive waste
– most of the human emissions of greenhouse gases
that are disrupting global climate.
International relations…
• Oil & gas are so important to economies that suppliers
can use cut-offs as a weapon, and importers may
threaten or wage war to gain or maintain access.
• Spread of nuclear-energy technologies spreads access to
nuclear-weapon capabilities
• Energy systems are “force-multiplier” targets for terrorists:
dams, nuclear reactors, oil refineries…
• Internal & international tensions & upheavals can result
from energy-strategy inadequacies that threaten, create,
or perpetuate great economic or environmental harm.
EJ/year
Growth of world population & prosperity over past
World Energy 1850-2000
150 years brought 20-fold increase in energy use
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Growth rate 1850-1950 was 1.45%/yr,
driven mainly by coal.
Year
From 1950-2000 it was 3.15%/yr, driven mainly by oil & natural gas.
Rapid growth & high fossil-fuel dependence are
continuing
Units are millions of tonnes of oil equivalent
Growth rate 2000-2006 averaged 2.7%/yr.
Much of the growth is in Asia
Bars show role of China & India in growth 2000-2006
WEO 2007
Some comparative country data for 2006
USA
China
India
299
1311
1122
GDP/pers, 2006$ (ppp)
44300
7900
3800
Total energy supply, EJ
106
86
29
88%
84%
62%
42
16
5
Oil imports, Mb/d
12.3
3.5
1.9
Electricity generation, TWh
4250
2830
730
Population, millions
of which fossil fuels
Oil consumption, EJ
of which coal generates
Fossil C emitted in CO2, MtC
50%
1710
80%
1640
70%
380
ppp = at purchasing-power parity, EJ = exajoules, TWh = terawatt-hours,
MtC = megatons of carbon in CO2. Total energy supply includes biomass
fuels. Electricity generation is gross, not net.
Continued high growth is expected to 2030
US EIA 2007 and IEA WEO 2007 “reference” forecasts
2006
2030
Primary energy, exajoules
World
526
800
United States
106
150
86
175
19.3
35
United States
4.3
6.0
China
2.8
7.5
China
Electricity, trillion kWh
World
…and beyond, if “business as usual”
continues
• World use of primary energy reaches
– 2.5 times the 2000 level by 2050,
– 4 times by 2100.
• World electricity generation reaches
– 3 times the 2000 level by 2050,
– 5 times by 2100.
Fossil fuels are expected to continue to dominate
supply in the decades immediately ahead
WEO 2007
Projected growth of oil use for road
transport in Asia is particularly large
WEO 2007
These oil demands are projected to be
met mainly by imports
WEO 2007
Projected growth of coal-fired electric power
plants in Asia is also high
Coal-fired capacity, GWe, actual & USEIA projection
USA
China
India
World
2003
310
239
67
1120
2010
319
348
95
1300
2020
345
531
140
1600
2030
457
785
161
2000
World coal-electric capacity goes up ~900 GWe by 2030, and
640 GWe of the increase is in China and India.
Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006
High fossil-fuel dependence already causes big
problems for Asia and the world
• Increasing dependence on imported oil & natural gas
means economic vulnerability, as well as international
tensions and potential for conflict over access & terms.
• Coal burning for electricity and industry and oil burning in
vehicles are main sources of severe urban and regional air
pollution – SOx, NOx, hydrocarbons, soot – with big impacts
on public health, acid precipitation.
• Emissions of CO2 from ALL fossil-fuel burning are largest
driver of global climate disruption, already associated with
increasing harm to human well-being and rapidly becoming
more severe.
The oil market, pollutant transport, & climate are global.
Each country is affected by what other countries do.
Developing Asia’s oil imports from Persian Gulf…
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2006
…are now bigger than North America’s and growing faster
二氧化硫和氮氧化物产生量预测
Forecasts of SO2 and NO2 Emissions
情景 Scenario
2000
2010
2020
二氧化硫
（万吨）
A 情景 Scenario A
2719
4072
5738
SO2
B 情景 Scenario B
2719
3900
4947
(10,000 tons)
C 情景 Scenario C
2719
3443
4056
氮氧化物
（万吨）
A 情景 Scenario A
1988
3417
4982
NOX
B 情景 Scenario B
1988
3273
4295
(10,000 tons)
C 情景 Scenario C
1988
2889
3521
Under the preferred (green) scenario, Chinese NOx emissions still increase
75% by 2020, SOx emissions by 50%.
Liu Shijin, The State Council, 2004
Health Costs from Particulate Pollution in China
Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
Acid precipitation under BAU growth
Wet and dry reactive nitrogen deposition from the
atmosphere, early 1990s and projected for 2050
China passes USA as biggest CO2 emitter in 2007
The temperature of the Earth is rising steeply
°C
Green bars show 95%
confidence intervals
2005 was the hottest year on record;
the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990,
23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)
This climatic disruption is already harmful
2.8
45
wind speed
Mean wind speed (m/s)
2.7
windy days
40
2.6
35
Y = -0.02161X + 45.275
(R2 = 0.94, p < 0.001)
2.5
2.4
30
2.3
25
Y = -0.8022X + 1620.66
(R2 = 0.95, p < 0.001)
2.2
20
2.1
2.0
1965
Qi Ye, Tsinghua University, May 2006
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
15
2005
Windy days with daily mean wind speed >5m/s (day)
Weakening of the East Asia Monsoon is an example
Year change has produced increased
Predicted by climate models, this
flooding in the South of China and increased drought in the North.
Floods have been increasing on every
continent
Major floods per decade,
1950-2000
The most dramatic rising trend is in Asia.
Under BAU much bigger disruption is coming
Last time T was 2ºC
above 1900 level was
130,000 yr BP, with
sea level 4-6 m higher
than today.
IPCC (2007)
scenarios
EU target ∆T ≤ 2ºC
Last time T was 3ºC
above 1900 level was
~30 million yr BP, with
sea level 20-30 m
higher than today.
Note: Shaded bands
denote 1 standard
deviation from mean
in ensembles of model
runs
IPCC 2007
Stabilizing CO2 concentration to limit T increase
requires big emissions reductions from BAU
BAU ( 6°C+)
(~3°C)
(~2°C)
Path for 50% chance of avoiding ∆Tavg >2°C (gold) is much more
demanding than path for 50% chance of avoiding >3°C (green).
Solutions: better technologies are key
ONLY WITH IMPROVED TECHNOLOGIES CAN WE
• limit oil imports & oil dependence overall without
incurring excessive economic or environmental costs
• improve urban air quality while meeting growing demand
for automobiles
• use the world’s abundant coal resources without
intolerable impacts on regional air quality, acid rain, and
global climate
• expand the use of nuclear energy enough to make a
difference for climate change and oil & gas dependence,
while still reducing accident/terrorism & proliferation risks
Needed new or improved technologies
• Cleaner, more fuel-efficient motor vehicles:
hybrids (diesels, plug-in hybrids)
• More energy-efficient commercial & residential
buildings
• Fuel- and electricity-efficient manufacturing
• Improved coal technologies to make electricity &
hydrogen with CO2 capture & storage
• Advanced nuclear reactors with increased safety
and proliferation-resistant fuel cycles
• Biofuels that don’t compete with food & forests
• Cheaper photovoltaic cells
Policy innovation is needed in order to…
• provide the scale, continuity, & coordination of effort in
energy research & development needed to realize in a
timely way the required technological innovations
• get the benefits of market competition in the electricity
sector while protecting public goods (provision of basic
energy services to the poor, preservation of adequate
system reliability, protection of environment)
• ensure the rapid diffusion of cleaner and more efficient
energy technologies across the least developed
countries and sectors
• devise and implement an equitable, adequate, and
achievable cooperative framework for limiting global
emissions of greenhouse gases
Asia’s role in solutions
• Good education system, high production of scientists &
engineers, & business environment favor rapid innovation.
• Asia’s growing role in global energy-environment problems
means USA & Europe want to cooperate with Asia to solve
these problems (e.g., cost-sharing, technology transfer).
• High growth rate of Asian economies allows for dominance
of new, efficient technologies & infrastructure over old,
inefficient ones.
• This and other factors position Asia to be a world leader in
renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean coal.
• Underdeveloped rural regions in Asia provide opportunity to
plan & build new resource-conserving towns.
Thank you!