Transcript Verdana 30 pt - World Services Group

GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR TRENDS
AND OUTLOOK
WORLD SERVICES GROUP
ANNUAL MEETING 2010
ROME, 6 SEPTEMBER 2010
SPEECH BY PROF. ROBERTO POLI
ENI CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
www.eni.it
Energy Today
(2008)
2
World primary energy demand
shares by fuel, year 2008
World energy demand =12 bn Tons of Oil Equivalent
(245 mn barrels per day)
Biomass
and wastes
10%
Hydro
Nuclear
2%
6%
Natural
Gas
21%
Other
renewables
1%
Oil
33%
Coal
27%
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World primary energy demand
shares by region, year 2008
World energy demand =12 bn Tons of Oil Equivalent
(245 mn barrels per day)
India
5%
Latin
America
5%
Africa
5%
Other Asia
6%
Middle East
5%
Bunkers
3%
OECD
North America
23%
China
17%
OECD
Pacific
OECD
Europe
15%
Former Soviet Union
and EU non-OECD
9%
7%
OECD countries
•18% of world population
•51% of world GDP
•45% of world energy
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Per-capita energy demand
barrels, year 2008
55
33
24
13
9
12
4
5
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Energy historical
global trends
(2003 -2008)
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Incremental world primary energy demand, 2003-2008
shares by fuel
Total increase 2003-2008 = +1,6 bn toe
Nuclear Hydro
3%
2%
Biomass
and wastes
9%
(+15,2%)
Other
renewables
2%
Oil
16%
Natural Gas
22%
Coal
46%
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Incremental world primary energy demand, 2003-2008
shares by region
Total increase 2003-2008 = +1,6 bn toe
Middle East
9%
Latin
America
7%
Africa
6%
Bunkers
4%
(+15,2%)
OECD Total
6%
Former Soviet Union
& Europe non-OECD
4%
India
8%
Other Asia
8%
China
48%
Share of world
energy increase
from coal use in
China = 37%
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Energy in the future
(2008 -2030)
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The Reference Scenario of International Energy Agency
The 2030 forecasts used in the following analysis derive from Reference
Scenario presented in 2009 World Energy Outlook by the
International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA Reference Scenario is a business as usual scenario, which
provides a baseline picture of how global energy markets would
evolve if:
 governments make no changes to their existing policies and
measures
 there is no major technological change in renewable energy
sector (breakthrough technology).
In practice it illustrates the consequences of policy inertia and inaction.
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The Alternative Scenario of International Energy Agency
IEA provides also an alternative scenario, which depicts a world in
which collective policy action is taken to limit the longterm
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to a level
that would give us a 50% chance of limiting global temperature
increase to 2°C. Such objective is gaining widespread support
around the world.
In this alternative scenario, world energy consumption in 2030 is
14% lower than the Reference Scenario level, but the wind, solar
and geothermal energy share of total demand increases only from
2,2% to 5% (2030).
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World primary energy demand, 2008 and 2030*
shares by fuel
2030
2008
Total 16,8 bn TOE
Total 12,3 bn TOE
Hydro
2,2%
Nuclear
Biomass
& wastes
Other
renewables
0,7%
Hydro
2,4%
Nuclear
Biomass
& wastes
5,8%
10,0%
Oil
33,1%
Natural Gas
21,1%
Other
renewables
2,2%
5,7%
10,0%
Oil
29,8%
Natural Gas
21,2%
Coal
27,0%
*source: World Energy Outlook 2009–Reference Scenario
Coal
29,1%
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World primary energy demand, 2008 and 2030*
shares by region
2008
2030
Total 12,3 bn TOE
5%3%
5%
5%
5%
Total 16,8 bn TOE
3%
6%
5%
23%
7%
6%
15%
17%
6%
8%
11%
8%
9%
OECD North America
China
18%
5%
23%
OECD Pacific
Other Asia
Latin America
8%
OECD Europe
India
Former Soviet Union &
EU non-OECD
Middle East
Africa
*source: World Energy Outlook 2009–Reference Scenario
Bunkers
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Incremental world primary energy demand*, 2008-2030
Total increase 2008-2030 = +4,5 bn toe (+36,9%)
Shares by fuel
Nuclear
5%
Hydro
3%
Annual Growth Rate
Other
renewables
6%
Biomass and
wastes
8%
Oil
21%
Total Energy Demand
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass-and-waste
Other-renewables
1,4%
1,8%
1,0%
1,5%
1,3%
1,7%
1,2%
6,6%
Natural Gas
21%
Coal
36%
*source: World Energy Outlook 2009–Reference Scenario
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Incremental world primary energy demand*, 2008-2030
Total increase 2008-2030 = +4,5 bn toe (+36,9%)
Shares by region
Middle East
Latin
10%
America
5%
Africa
5%
Bunkers
3%
Annual Growth Rate
OECD Total
9%
Former Soviet
Union and
EU non-OECD
5%
India
14%
Other Asia
12%
World
OECD Total
Non-OECD Total
World bunkers
Africa
Latin America
Middle East
Former Soviet Union
& non-OECD Europe
Other Asia
China
India
1,4%
0,3%
2,2%
1,3%
1,3%
1,6%
2,5%
0,8%
2,4%
2,7%
3,4%
China
37%
*source: World Energy Outlook 2009–Reference Scenario
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The Climate Change Issue
Analisys of the energy-related CO2
emissions
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World energy-related* CO2 emissions, year 2008
Total CO2 emissions = 29,4 bn ton
Shares by region
Shares by fuel
Bunkers
Gas
20%
4%
Other
non-OECD
countries
Coal
43%
31%
Oil
37%
China
USA
19%
Other
OECD
countries
24%
22%
Share of CO2 world emissions
from coal use in China = 19%
* fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas);
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Incremental world energy-related* CO2 emissions, 2003-2008
Total CO2 emissions increase 2003-2008 = +4,4 bn ton
Shares by fuel
(+17,6%)
Shares by region
110%
Bunkers 5%
100%
90%
Gas
18%
80%
34%
Other
non-OECD
Countries
70%
Oil
15%
Coal
67%
60%
50%
40%
62%
China
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
* fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas);
Other OECD
countries 2%
USA -3%
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Incremental world energy-related* CO2 emissions, 2008-2030
Total CO2 emissions increase 2008-2030 = +10,8 bn ton
Shares by fuel
(+36,7%)
Shares by region
110%
100%
90%
Gas
19%
Oil
26%
Bunkers 3%
80%
70%
Coal
55%
52%
Other
Non-OECD
Countries
47%
China
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
OECD
countries
-2%
* fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas); source: World Energy Outlook 2009–Reference Scenario
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Perspective Challenges
of the Energy Sector
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Challenges
MAJOR CHALLENGES
a) Ensuring the increase of energy supply,
b) reducing its environmental impact and
c) creating the market conditions that are required to sustain
enormous investment
Pursuing the past growth model in the future may cause serious climatic
consequences and damages to all human beings
At the same time, emerging countries and populations who still live in
poverty are pressing to gain access to modern energy sources that
may allow their development and a better quality of life.
a) are the major challenges that the energy system will be facing in the
coming years and that require prompt and clear answers from now on.
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What Could We Do ?
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Solutions
a) Technological research, properly organised and
sustained by strong (public) financial commitment
b) reliable and widely shared rules,
c) international relations that foster the dialogue between
producer and consumer countries
are the main instruments that we have at our disposal to
conciliate different countries’ requirements and potentially
conflicting objectives.
Once again, it is only by aiming with strength and conviction at
these goals that we shall be able to guarantee a successful
alliance between economic growth and environmental
sustainability
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