Transcript Energy Technology and Measures to Address Climate Change

The Latest Science on
Energy Based Solutions
for Climate Change
Professor William Moomaw
Tufts University
Earth Day 2004
Multiple Reasons for Energy
Technology and Fuel Choices
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Effectiveness and appropriateness to task
Economic cost
Reliability
Convenience
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National Security and global political stability
Job creation
Human health and safety
Environmental Consequences including climate
change
Sources of Heat Trapping
Gases
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, iron,
aluminum, ammonia and cement
Methane from agriculture (livestock and rice),
waste disposal (landfills and sewage treatment),
leakage of natural gas
Nitrous oxide from nitrogen fertilizer and
industrial production of nylon and nitric acid
Deforestation, forest fires and loss of carbon
from agricultural soils
Fires in forests, coal mines and from gas flaring
Growth in Carbon Dioxide from
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Major Indicators of Current
Climate Change
global temperature has risen by 1o
F in past 100 years with high latitude
increases of 4o F
 Seasons in the US and Europe have shifted
by one week in past 50 years
 Precipitation patterns are changing
 Species are migrating higher and towards
the poles
 Average
Sea level has risen by 6-8” in the past century and
is proceeding at a rate of more than an inch a
decade
 More than 95% of world’s glaciers are retreating
 Polar sea ice has thinned by more than 40% in 30
years, and coastal ice shelves are disintegrating
 Permafrost is warming and melting rapidly,
destroying buildings and roads, and could disrupt
Alaska oil pipeline
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How Can We Assess
Technologies?
 Many
technologies have been evaluated
under controlled conditions by industry,
government and university researchers for
their performance, cost and effectiveness in
reducing heat trapping gases and other
pollutants.
 These studies have been reviewed by
independent energy and engineering
experts, and additional tests have been
conducted.
Identify Emissions by Sector
1995 (IPCC)
Global share Annual growth
 Building sector
31% (+1.0%/year)
 Transport sector
22% (+2.4%/year)
 Industrial sector
43% (+0.4%/year)
 Agricultural sector 4% (+0.6%/year)
 {Electric
power
31% for generation
Note this is included in first four categories}
Basic Strategies
 Make
existing emitting technologies more
efficient in the use and production of energy
 Change processes to reduce non-energy
emissions from industry and agriculture
 Shift to new technologies and fuels that emit
little or no heat trapping gases
 Sequester carbon dioxide in forests, soils or
geological reservoirs
Identify Effective Strategies
 Reduce
emissions of heat trapping
gases by utilizing technologies that
are more efficient
 Shift standards and incentives to
construct buildings that use 30-70%
less energy for heating and cooling
 Purchase appliances that use 10-80%
less energy
Identify Effective Strategies
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Build electric power generating systems that use 30%
less fuel, or which utilize currently wasted heat from
coal and natural gas power plants for heating and
cooling
 Buy vehicles that get 50 to 100% more miles per
gallon
 Shift to cost effective industrial processes that use
50% less energy and release much less process
gases
 Improve agriculture and waste management
practices
Buildings (31%)
(potential reductions 30-70%)
 Orientation
to optimize use of sun and wind
for passive heating, cooling and ventilation
 Effective insulation to reduce need for
excess heating or cooling
 Efficient, well located windows that reduce
need for artificial lighting, and maintain
appropriate temperatures in all seasons
 Controlled ventilation with heat recovery
 Cost of saving 40% of energy use is onefifth the cost of supplying that energy
Where do we spend $ on
our home energy bills?
Energy Star Refrigerators I
 “Replacing
a 10-year old refrigerator bought
in 1990 with a new ENERGY STAR qualified
model would save enough energy to light
the average household for over three
months and (prevent) over 300 pounds of
pollution each year.”
 Improving energy efficiency standards have
driven this efficiency improvement trend.
Energy Star Refrigerators II
 Electricity
cost savings are $120 per year,
while additional purchase price is $100$200.
 Economic payback is eight years or less.
 Purchase stimulates the economy and
create jobs.
 Provides air pollution and global warming
benefits through lower energy use
 Protects ozone layer by replacing CFCs.
Appliance Efficiency
Improvement
Appliance Efficiency Information
Efficient Appliances -Washers
 Most
efficient clothes washer uses 70% less
electricity than does least efficient available.
 Spins clothes drier, thereby reducing drier
time and energy use
 It uses 85% less water, saving 16,000
gallons per year
 It gets clothes cleaner
 It costs twice as much
Transportation(22%)
(potential reductions 50-100%)
 Transportation
accounts for 22% of global
carbon dioxide emissions and 33% of US
emissions.
 It is the fastest growing sector in terms of
emissions.
 Transportation depends on petroleum for
97% of its fuel
History of Vehicle Efficiency
Gains
 Following
the oil shocks, US autos doubled
efficiency from 13.5 mpg to 27.5 mpg in 10
years.
 Air pollution emissions dropped by 90%, and
vehicles are available today that have
reduced pollution by 99%.
 Safety increased through improved crash
resistance, seat belts and air bags.
 Power and performance increased
Potential for Future Gains
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Current technologies could increase auto & light
truck fuel efficiency in the near term by 50100% without changing weight, size or
performance.
 Hybrid gasoline electric
 Continuously variable transmission
 Improved tires and aerodynamics
 Shift from gasoline to new diesel for 25% improvement
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Weight reductions could bring about additional
savings by a similar, additional factor.
 Heavy trucks could increase efficiency 60%
 Fuel cells are low emitting, but in 10 yrs.
Industrial Emissions (43%)
(potential reductions of 10-65%)
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Industry accounts for 43% of all carbon dioxide
emissions, but emissions are falling by 0.8% per
year in industrial countries.
 In the industrial world, carbon dioxide from
industry decreased by 9% between 1971 and
1995, even though energy use rose 17% and
industrial output doubled.
Energy and CO2 emissions are falling in
China by similar amounts as inefficient,
uncompetitive industries are replaced.
Identify Fuel and Technology
Switching Strategies
 Shift
from high to low carbon dioxide
emitting fuels –
COAL ( 1.0x )
OIL
(0.75x)
NATURAL GAS (0.5x)
PLANT BASED FUELS ( 0.0 - 0.7x )
SOLAR, WIND, GEOTHERMAL, AND
 NUCLEAR ( 0.0-0.2)
Relative CO2 Emissions to
Produce the Same Energy
1.0
0.8
Relative CO2 0.6
per Unit of
0.4
Energy
0.2
0.0
Coal
Oil
Nat. gas
Plants
S, W, H,
G, N
Electric Power Production (2000)
 Coal
generates 38% of global electricity
(55% in US) but produces 70% of world’s
electric power CO2.
 Natural gas generates 18% of global
electricity and 19% of electric power CO2.
 Oil generates 9% of global electricity and
11% of electricity CO2.
 Hydropower, nuclear power and renewable
sources produce 35% of global electricity
and no direct CO2.
Electric Power Generation Fuels
70
60
50
Per cent 40
Electricty
30
and CO2
20
10
0
owe
Coal
Gas
Oil
S,W, H,
G, N
Trends in Electric Power
 Natural
gas turbines are 25- 50% more
efficient than coal based steam and produce
only 40% as much CO2 per unit of electricity
Concern over natural gas supply and prices
Over 90% of proposed new power plants in US
are gas turbines
 No
new large coal or nuclear plants have
been built in past 10 years and oil is being
phased out as an electricity generating fuel.
 Deregulation favors low cost power stations
such as gas over nuclear power
Wind Generated Electric Power
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Wind is the fastest growing electric power source
in percentage terms increasing at 25%/year.
Installed wind capacity passed 31,000 MW by end
of 2002 - three years ahead of predictions.
Over 20% of electricity in Denmark and parts of
Germany are now supplied by wind.
The US had 90% of wind electric capacity in 1990,
but dropped to third place behind Germany and
Spain last year.
Plains states and off-shore wind parks have great
potential for production of wind electricity at a cost
of 4cents/kwh which is competitive with clean coal.
World Electricity Generation by
Type 2000 (Worldwatch Inst.)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Non-hydro
renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil
Fuels
Global Trends in Energy
1992-2002
30%
25.4
25%
19.0
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1.9
Wind
Solar PV
Hydro
1.8
Oil
1.6
Natural
Gas
0.6
Nuclear
0.0
Coal
Agriculturally Based Fuels
 Develop
a crop based liquid transportation
fuels program to produce alcohol and
biodiesel from crops grown in the US and
from sugar cane in tropical countries to
reduce our dependence on oil based fuels.
 Provide tradable credits for adding carbon to
soils and forests
Multiple Benefits of Biofuels
 Creates
jobs, lowers dependence on
unstable regions of the world for petroleum,
promotes trade, adds value to US economy,
increases farm incomes, reduces need for
farm subsidies - and lowers CO2 emissions.
An Integrated Economic Rural
Development Strategy
Develop large wind turbine generation
capacity on agricultural lands and public or
private rangelands in Great Plains states Also continue to produce grain and cattle.
 Develop international alcohol auto fuel from
sugar cane for tropical developing countries
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Economic Implications of
Emissions Reductions
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
has verified hundreds of currently existing
technologies and measures capable of slowing
and reversing the rise in greenhouse gases.
 The technological potential exists to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 30% worldwide by 2010.
 Half of these reductions could be achieved at a
savings or zero cost, the remainder would cost
zero to the equivalent of 25 cents/gal. gasoline.
Addressing Climate Change and
Reducing Dependence on Geopolitically
Vulnerable Oil
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Alternatives to fossil fuels can increase reliability
and decrease our vulnerability to disruption from
political instability, accidents, natural disasters and
terrorist attacks.
 Less oil dependence reduces global tensions:
Distribution of Conventional Global Oil Reserves
 U.S.
4%
 Canada
3%
 Russia & FSU
6%
 Persian Gulf
66%
 Other (Nigeria, Venezuela, etc)
21%
Meeting Climate, Security and
Economic Goals
 It
is possible to introduce new technology in
the natural replacement cycle of capital
stock such as cars, appliances, buildings
and power plants that substantially reduce
heat trapping gas emissions.
 Choices can be made that increase national
security and global political stability, provide
jobs and improve the economy of the United
States.
National Energy Policy Initiative
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In March 2002,a non-partisan, independent group
of energy experts released a report on Capitol Hill.
 They suggested that America could meet our longterm energy and national security goals while
addressing climate change by developing policies
supportive of new technologies and practices.
 The plan has been endorsed by former members
of the Carter, Reagan, first Bush and Clinton
administrations along with 75 additional energy
experts from industry and universities.
 http://www.nepinitiative.org/
More Information
To find out more:
www.tufts.edu/tci
[email protected]
http://www.ipcc.ch
http://www.nepinitiative.org