Special thanks to Jasper Kok for putting together information on emissions.

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected]

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 February 25, 2010

Class News

• Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 • • On Line: 2008 Class – Reference list from course Rood Blog Data Base • Assigned Reading (either one) – A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check – Stabilization Wedges

Make Up Class / Opportunity

• Make up Class on March 8, Dana 1040, 5:00 – 7:30 PM, Joint with SNRE 580 – V. Ramanathan, Scripps, UC San Diego – Please consider this a regular class and make it a priority to attend.

• ”Climate Change, Science and Scientists” Ralph Cicerone . Monday, March 8, 2010 from 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm (with a reception immediately following) in the Boeing Auditorium (1109 FXB)

Outline

• Projects • Carbon Dioxide Emissions

There are four project teams

• Near-term Climate Management and Attribution • Transportation Project • Michigan Energy and Coal • Near-term Efficiency

My Procedure

• Refer to lecture already posted on projects.

• Grade will be primarily on final presentation and narrative.

• There should be at least two “meetings” with me prior to final presentation.

– Scoping meeting by March 20 – Progress meeting by April 5 • More meetings are possible if needed.

Consider, esp., CO

2

emissions

• Focus on energy • Different ways to make the accounting

Context: Energy and Climate Change • Consumption // Population // Energy

ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ?

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

– CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?

– Current sources of energy – Emissions from economic sectors – Energy consumption by end use – External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

Context: Growth

10 8 6 4 2 0 1850 1900 cement and gas flaring

gas oil coal

1950

deforestation

2000

Key references and websites

• Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends.

• The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. ( link ) – This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

–

CO

2

emissions: where do they come from?

– Current sources of energy – Emissions from economic sectors – Energy consumption by end use – External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

World Carbon Emissions

10 8 cement and gas flaring

gas

6

oil

4

coal

2 0 1850 • 1900 1950 CO 2 emissions arise from: 1. Cement production (~5 %) 2. Deforestation (~20 %) 3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %)

deforestation

2000

75%

CO

2

source: Cement Production

• Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO 3 ).

• • • For production of cement: CaCO 3  CaO + CO 2 Production of cement emits CO 2 for two reasons: 1.

2.

CO 2 emitted directly Production process takes place at high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy.

Accounts for ~5 % of CO 2 emissions worldwide

CO

2

source: Deforestation

• Massive deforestation occurred – In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy) – In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood.

• When forests are cut down, CO 2 is released from: – Carbon in trees, plants, etc. (conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction) – Carbon in the soil (roots, humus) • Forests absorb “excess” CO 2 , since elevated CO 2 stimulates growth – Removal of forests removes this natural buffer against climate change

CO

2

source: Deforestation

10 8 6 4 Fossil fuels Deforestation Total 320 200 GtC 520 Compare to 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere cement and gas flaring

gas oil coal

2 •

deforestation

0 1850 1900 1950 Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: 2000 – It accounts for ~20 % of current CO 2 – It accounted for ~35 % of total CO 2 emissions emissions since preindustrial times.

CO 2 source: Fossil Fuel Use • Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption over past century – Why did this occur?

Context: Energy and Climate Change • Consumption // Population // Energy

ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE

Energy and Economic Success

The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

So why has energy consumption increased so much?

Energy use =

(population) * (GDP/Person) *( energy/unit GDP )

• GDP/capita is considered the “societal success” • Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita.

Energy and population • Strong population increase since pre-industrial times!

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

Energy use =

(population) *

(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)

World GDP/capita

• Also strong growth in GDP/capita!

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

Energy use = (population)*

(GDP/Person)

*(energy/unit GDP)

Energy and GDP

Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in U.S. (index, 1980 = 1) • Energy/unit GDP decreases as societies become more developed  shift from manufacturing to services (root cause of Michigan’s economic trouble) • But total energy use per capita does not decrease.

EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(

energy/unit GDP

)

So why has energy consumption increased so much?

Energy use =

(population) * (GDP/Person) *( energy/unit GDP )

• Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have been increases in population and GDP/capita • This is why climate change problem is so difficult: – We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…) – Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible • But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to knowledge-based economy (developed world now).

• Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic.

– To reduce CO 2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO 2 emitted per unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing.

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

– CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?

–

Current sources of energy

– Emissions from economic sectors – Energy consumption by end use – External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

In what forms do we consume energy? • Fossil fuels: – Coal – Oil – Natural gas • Other: – Nuclear – Hydro – Renewables (mostly biomass) – ‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

Current sources of energy:

Fossil fuels

Energy sources: Coal

• Emits most CO 2 fossil fuels per unit energy of all • Accounts for ~29% of world CO 2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)

Coal is major source of air pollution • Coal emits sulfur and smoke particulates • “Great London smog” of 1952 led to thousands of casualties.

– Caused by cold inversion layer  pollutants didn’t disperse + Londoners burned large amounts of coal for heating • Demonstrated impact of pollutants and played role in passage of “Clean Air Acts” in the US and Western Europe

Coal use in the US

Coal use by sector in US

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 • After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal use • Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is readily available

Energy sources: Oil

• Emits ~75 % of coal CO 2 unit energy.

emissions per • Accounts for ~30 % of world CO 2 emissions.

• Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern

Energy sources: Natural gas

• Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO 2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO 2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years

Trend of fossil fuel use

• In ‘business as usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.

International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

Reserves of fossil fuels

Fuel type: Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Unconventional reserves (years) 125 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!

• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc..

– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine

Current sources of energy:

nuclear and renewables

Energy sources: Nuclear

• Accounts for ~6 % of world energy consumption and ~ 19 % of US electricity generation • Used only for electricity generation

Nuclear share of electricity generation in U.S.

• No CO 2 emissions from plant operating, but some from uranium mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions per kWh) • Concerns about nuclear waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation

Nuclear power plant licenses issued in U.S.

Chernobyl

• Hardly growing in most of developed world.

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Energy sources: Renewables

• Mostly from biomass (wood), hydro power, and biofuels.

Renewable energy as share of total energy in U.S., 2006

• Contribution from other renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, tides) are small.

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen

• Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood: – Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy!

– It’s merely an energy carrier, much like electricity • Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water:  This requires electricity • Hydrogen burns cleanly • Hydrogen’s significance is that: 1. It can be produced using renewable energy, which would displace fossil fuel. 2. Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they occur at a central location rather than individual cars.

• In the absence of policies including cost of climate change, hydrogen would be generated using cheap coal-generated electricity

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

– CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?

– Current sources of energy –

Emissions from economic sectors

– Energy consumption by end use – External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

Emissions from economic sectors • Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)

US energy use by sector

• Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.

• Transportation: cars, planes, ships EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Transportation sector

• Sector with fastest growing CO in US 2 emissions

U.S. energy consumption by sector

• Dominated by oil and road transport • Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO 2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Buildings sector

• Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)

U.S. energy consumption by sector

• Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating • Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.

EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Industrial sector

• Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.

U.S. energy consumption by sector

• The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.

U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel

• Also includes agriculture… EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Agriculture

• Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3 –4.5 % in industrialized countries.

– Half of used energy and direct CO 2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) • BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.

• Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

Agriculture: Livestock

• 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: – “The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” • Important economic sector: – Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor) – Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production • 33 % of arable land for feed production

Agriculture: Livestock

• Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation!

– 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. – Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %.

– Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) • Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

Agriculture: Livestock

• Responsible for ~18 % of CO 2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N 2 O and CH 4 )  Same share as entire US!

– 9 % of world CO 2 emissions • Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer • Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) – 37 % of world CH 4 emissions • Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) • Animal manure – 65 % of N 2 O • Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N 2 O emission 10 8 6 4 2 0 1850 1900 cement and gas flaring

gas oil coal

1950

deforestation

2000

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

– CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?

– Current sources of energy – Emissions from economic sectors –

Energy consumption by end use

– External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

Energy consumption by end use

• The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:

World CO 2 emissions by fuel and end use

– Electric power plants (~40 % of CO CO 2 2 emissions) emissions) – Transportation (~23 % of – Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO 2 emissions) • So ~40 % CO from electricity, 60 % from fuels 2 emissions Socolow and Pacala , 2006

Energy consumption by end use: Electricity

• Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels • One third from hydro and nuclear power

Cost of Electricity

Cost of electricity in US in 2002

Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006 Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009 • Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!

• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive

Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat)

Fuel type: Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Unconventional reserves (years) 125 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!

• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc..

– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine

Electricity generation: Switch to renewables in future?

• So in ‘business-as-usual’ abundant, cheap, fossil fuel derived electricity will likely be available until the end of the century.

• This cheap electricity can also be used to produce hydrogen fuel, should oil demand exceed supply.

• Renewables will thus not play important role until – Externalities are taken into account (taxes, cap-and-trade) – There are technological breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion)

Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use • ‘Direct fuel use’: – Transportation (oil) – Heating in buildings – Industrial processes • Dominated by oil • No real alternatives for transportation fuels – Biofuels do not mitigate CO 2 cars?

emission – Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric

Direct Fuel Use

Pacala and Socolow, 2006

Current and past energy use • Current and past energy use

– CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?

– Current sources of energy – Emissions from economic sectors – Energy consumption by end use –

External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

Energy and National Security

• U.S. imports most of its oil – This is a liability, as some of that oil comes from Middle East (though not as much as one would think!) – Past (and most of current) U.S. energy policy revolves around energy security – not climate change mitigation • Majority of remaining oil in Middle East US oil trade Origin of US oil imports, 2006

Energy and Public Health

• The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of air pollution, emitting – Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause headaches and exacerbate heart disease – Nitrogen oxides (NO x ), which causes respiratory problems and leads to

smog

– Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), which produces acid rain and smog – Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems – Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through fish, where they bioaccumulate.

• The overall cost of air pollution on human health is large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to quantify

Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming) • Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by: – Scattering radiation – Seeding clouds • Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate…