Transcript /kaunan/workshop04/power/Streets.ppt
Present and future contributions of the household sector to emissions of black carbon in China
David G. Streets
Argonne National Laboratory Workshop on the Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China Oslo, Norway October 17-19, 2004
The source of carbonaceous aerosols is unburned carbon emitted during inefficient combustion of fuel Technically, we are most concerned about: black carbon (BC) elemental carbon, , fine aerosol particles generally smaller than 1 micrometer in diameter and mostly and organic carbon (OC) , similar particles in which the carbon is bonded to other atoms.
These particles are small enough to travel in the air for a week or more, forming regional air pollution and ultimately being deposited far from the source.
Kathmandu: Brick Kilns
Harmful Effects of BC
Human health! Particles are small enough to be inhaled into the deep lung where they slow clearance mechanisms and provide absorption sites for toxic species
Soiling of surfaces of buildings, monuments, homes, etc.
Reduced visibility
Reduction in crop yields due to lowered insolation
Possible surface damage to vegetation
Modification of regional and global climates: temperature and precipitation changes, effects on cloud formation
A new bar chart of radiative forcing was constructed by Jim Hansen to replace the IPCC formulation Net forcing = 1.6 +/- 1.1 W/m 2 Black Carbon (0.8) (Hansen et al., Senate testimony, May 1, 2001; Hansen and Sato, PNAS)
Model-simulated summer changes in temperature Model suggests a cooling of 0.5 to 1 deg K over China due to reduction in radiation reaching the surface; in other parts of the world, the surface is warmed due to BC heating From Menon et al., Science, 297, 2250-2253, 2002
Model-simulated summertime changes in precipitation The model suggests decreased precipitation in northern China (drought) and increased precipitation in southern China (flooding) due to BC aerosols From Menon et al., Science, 297, 2250-2253, 2002
Jim Hansen’s “Alternative” Scenario (released August 29, 2000)
“Our analysis of climate forcings suggests, as a strategy to slow global warming, an alternative scenario focused on reducing non-CO black carbon (soot) 2 GHGs and aerosols.… (R)eductions in tropospheric ozone and black carbon would not only improve local health and agricultural productivity but also benefit global climate and air quality.” J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 97, 9875-9880, 2000
Global distribution of BC emissions in 1996: it’s mostly China, India, and biomass burning China contributes about one-fourth of global BC
Inefficient combustion of coal in small stoves in China produces large quantities of black carbon
Coal-burning cook stoves in Xi’an, China
Results: Most of the BC in China comes from the domestic/residential sector Emissions in China are about 1 million tons per year of BC and 3.4 million tons per year of OC
Industry (Gg) Domestic (Gg) Transport (Gg) Pow er Generation (Gg) Biomass Burning (Gg)
Distribution of black carbon emissions in East Asia by source type and release height, reveals the regional nature of the problem (2008 Beijing Olympics?) Second-layer sources (industry) Ground-level sources (residential, transport)
There are still fundamental problems with our understanding of BC in the atmosphere
ENERGY USE BIOMASS BURNING BC EMISSION FACTORS SOURCE TESTING BC EMISSIONS BC ANALYSIS METHODS ATMOSPHERIC MODELING CALCULATED BC CONCENTRATIONS MONITORING CAMPAIGNS Often, (
CALC
) (
OBS
) ( 2 4 ) [Global, India, China, …] OBSERVED BC CONCENTRATIONS
Approach to forecasting BC and OC emissions from the 1996 base-year reference point From Bond et al., JGR, 2004
“Give me a future, any future…” (Range of IPCC forecasts of temperature change) A2 and B2 done subsequently 2030 and 2050 done A1B and B1 used in ICAP
(Courtesy of Loretta Mickley)
2 3 Major factors influencing future BC emissions: Level: 1 Change in energy use and fuel type, by sector and world region Improvements in particle control technology 4 Shifts in technology from low-level to higher level technology/fuel combination Improvements in emission performance of a given technology/fuel combination
Which fuels are used in which sectors?
Residential coal use has very high BC emissions
China photo courtesy of Bob Finkelman
Level 1 forecasting Residential electricity use from nuclear power has zero BC emissions
Fuel use is partitioned among sectors and technology types (this example is part of the residential sector) Tech Code Fuel1 Combustor/Control Residential
122 Agricultural Wastes General 123 Animal Wastes 99 Biofuel General Fireplace 127 Biofuel 1 Biofuel 44 Biofuel 134 Biofuel 2 Biofuel 124 Biofuel 152 Biofuel Heating Stove Improved Cookstove Open Fire Stoker/No control Traditional Cookstove Total Biomass Charcoal Production General 94 Briquettes 81 Brown Coal 84 Charcoal 52 Coking Coal 146 Diesel Fuel 147 Diesel Fuel 128 Hard Coal 98 Hard Coal 120 Hard Coal 121 Hard Coal General General General External Combustion Generator Heating Stove Open Fire Stoker/Cyclone Stoker/No control Canada 0 18 0 0 6000 0 100 0 0 0
33378
0 0 1503 4510 0 0 0 0 0 0 USA
218121
0 0 12515 37545 0 0 0 0 0 0 17722 0 2651 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central America
167410
0 0 0 0 2434 14605 0 31644 0 5176 14 0 1202 0 1844 1844 0 0 0 0 South America
199539
0 1631 0 0 3821 22926 0 49674 0 36411 0 0 1860 0 2683 2683 0 644 0 0 Northern Africa
97470
465 169 0 0 355 2130 0 4615 0 1096 0 0 274 0 0 37462 0 0 0 0 Western Africa
450412
5696 183988 0 0 8439 50632 0 109703 0 34969 4913 636 3865 0 0 7425 0 3872 0 0 Eastern Africa
162794
4296 15048 0 0 4398 26391 0 57180 0 40318 83 0 5889 0 0 858 0 0 0 0
A stove is a stove is a… (tech/fuel shifts for a particular energy service) Coal-fired, high BC
Photo of street vendor’s stove in Xi’an, courtesy of Beverly Anderson
Level 3 forecasting Gas or electric, low BC
Net BC emission factors (g/kg) are developed from PM ef’s, C fractions, and sub-micron fractions Tech Code Fuel1 Power
68 Biofuel 117 Briquettes 41 Brown Coal 39 Brown Coal 40 Brown Coal 72 Brown Coal 119 Brown Coal 71 Brown Coal 51 Coking Coal 66 Coking Coal 57 Diesel Fuel 112 Hard Coal 110 Hard Coal 22 Hard Coal 20 Hard Coal 21 Hard Coal 69 Hard Coal 19 Hard Coal 70 Hard Coal 50 Heavy Fuel Oil 47 Natural Gas 65 Waste, Municipal
Combustor/Control
Canada USA Central America South America Northern Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa General Stoker/Cyclone Pulverized Coal/Cycl Pulverized Coal/ESP Pulverized Coal/Scrub Stoker/Cyclone Stoker/ESP or Filter Stoker/Scrubber General Stoker/Scrubber General Cyclone/Cyclone Cyclone/Filter or ESP Pulverized Coal/Cycl Pulverized Coal/ESP Pulverized Coal/Scrub Stoker/Cyclone Stoker/ESP or Filter Stoker/Scrubber General General General 0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
0.03869
0.00156
0.00104
0.00021
0.00940
0.03740
0.00374
0.08415
0.00000
0.00000
0.00265
0.00059
0.00002
0.00018
0.00007
0.00288
0.03465
0.00554
0.11088
0.03960
0.00012
0.00176
Emission factors for a given tech/fuel combination are determined using an S-shaped technology penetration curve
7.00
6.00
1996 current emission factor (Bond/Streets)
5.00
4.00
Shape factor depends on lifetime, build rate, etc.
3.00
2.00
“Net” performance in 2030
1.00
0.00
1 6
“Ultimate” performance
11 16 21 26
Time (years)
31 36 41 46 51
Recent fuel use and BC emission trends in East Asia ( ≈ China) Figure 1 Fuel Use Trends in East Asia
3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1980 Total Residential Industry Power Transport Biomass Burning 1985 1990
Year Fuel Use
1995 2000
BC Emissions
2500
Figure 2 BC Emission Trends in East Asia
2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 Total Residential Industry Power Transport Biomass Burning 1985 1990
Year
1995 2000
Future trends in BC emissions from the household sector BC Emissions from the Household Sector
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1990 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario B2 Scenario 2010
Year
2030 2050
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1970
Future trends in BC emissions from residential coal use BC Emissions from Coal Use
1990 2010
Year
A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario B2 Scenario 2030 2050
Future trends in BC emissions from fuelwood use BC Emissions from Fuelwood Use
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario B2 Scenario 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Ye ar
2030 2040 2050 2060
Future trends in BC emissions from stoves BC Emissions from Fuelwood Stoves (A2 Scenario)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1990 2010
Year
Heating Stove Improved Cookstove Traditional Cookstove 2030 2050
Future trends in BC emissions from residential use of crop residues BC Em issions from Crop Residues
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario 1980 B2 Scenario 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
2030 2040 2050 2060
The changing picture of residential BC emissions in China Shares of Residential BC Emissions in 1980 1980: mainly coal Shares of Residential BC Emissions in 2030 (A2 Scenario)
Crop Residues Animal Waste Municipal Waste Fuelwood Coal Oil, LPG
Residential BC Emissions in 2000
Crop Residues Animal Waste Municipal Waste Fuelwood Coal Oil, LPG Crop Residues Animal Waste Municipal Waste Fuelwood Coal Oil, LPG
2030A2: mainly crop residues 2000: coal, wood, crops mixture
We desperately need more source testing in China to improve emission factors Representativeness of entire population of sources Typical operating practices (air flow) Typical fuels and fuel characteristics Relationship to similar sources in the developed world Daily and seasonal operating cycles
Embracing BC offers the possibility of a true global compact to address climate change
U.S. and Europe (and other developed countries) reduce CO 2
They are the cause of most of the accumulated CO 2
They can afford the more expensive measures of CO mitigation 2 They will accrue ancillary energy security benefits They can contribute a long-term solution
China and India (and other developing countries) reduce BC
They are the cause of most of the emitted BC
They can afford the less expensive measures of BC control They will accrue ancillary health benefits They can contribute a near-term solution
Conclusions
Black carbon in China today is a serious environmental problem, leading to (largely unquantified) inhalation health effects, regional ecological damage, and climate modification.
The major causes are the direct combustion of solid fuels in the home, poor combustion efficiency and lack of PM controls in the industrial sector, polluting vehicles, and open biomass burning.
In the future, we think that the gradual phase-out of inefficient technologies will slowly reduce primary aerosol emissions; more vehicles, however, will tend to increase emissions. In the household sector, things should improve rapidly in urban areas, but linger in rural areas.
BC control could be China’s contribution to a global warming treaty.