Transcript Title

India’s INDC: Renewable Energy
and the Pathway to Paris
Sudatta Ray
Junior Research Associate
Council on Energy, Environment and Water
Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and
INDCs
New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015
Contents
•
Background – INDCs and What to Expect
•
Status of Contributions from Major Emitting Regions
•
India and China – Differences in Scale and Nature of Emissions
•
India’s Renewable Target in the 2030 Electricity Mix
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INDCs and What to Expect
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INDCs and what to expect
The Lima Call for Climate Action text includes the following guidelines for the content
and scope of INDCs –
1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including a base year)
2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation
3. Scope and coverage (implying gases and sectors)
4. Planning processes (to oversee the fulfilment of INDCs)
5. Assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and
accounting of GHGs
6. How the Party considers that its INDC is fair and ambitious, in light of its national
circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective set out in
Article 2 of the convention
SOURCE: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/application/pdf/auv_cop20_lima_call_for_climate_action.pdf
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Status of Contributions from Major Emitters
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The EU has increased its ambition with respect to its Copenhagen
announcement of 20% reduction by 2020
The European Union’s Climate Declarations
Pre-Lima
Pre-Lima
Copenhagen
Kyoto Protocol I
SOURCE: The European Commission (2014)
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Pre-Lima announcement of the US falls below a straight-line trajectory
of its Copenhagen announcement
The United States’ Climate Declarations
Copenhagen
Expected Pathway
(Copenhagen)
Pre-Lima
Copenhagen
SOURCE: The White House (2009); The White House (2014)
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China could increase its ambition on its non-fossil fuel energy
consumption , were it to grow its share at a constant rate of growth
China’s Declarations on Non-Fossil Fuel Consumption
Pre-Lima
Copenhagen
12th FYP
Press Release,
September 2014
SOURCE: SCIO Breifing on Climate Change (2014); National People’s Congress (2011); The Guardian (2009); The White House (2014)
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Less than half the permissible carbon space is available for the rest of
the world in 2030 and 2050
36
36 Gt of CO2 eq. is the permissible carbon space for the world in 2030
50
With the current pledges, <50% of this space is available for the rest of
the world
1.4
The rest of the world would gain 1.4 CO2 eq. of carbon space through a
cost-optimized approach of limiting temperature rise to 2oC
SOURCE: CEEW Analysis; UNEP, Emissions Gap Report, 2013
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India and China
Differences in Scale and Nature of Emissions
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India and China - differences in emissions and climate ambitions in the
past, present and future
India’s aggregate emissions were a fraction of China’s in the past
2000
Aggregate Emissions
(Gt of CO2 eq.)
India
1.187
China
3.405
India’s emissions intensity continue to be lower than China’s today
2010
Emissions Intensity
(CO2 kg/ PPP of $ GDP.)
India
0.4
China
0.7
India’s ambitions for renewable energy continue to march ahead of China’s
2020
Renewable Energy
Contribution to
Electricity (%)
India
13.8%
China
5.0%
SOURCE: World Bank Data, GCAM, CEC (2012)
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India’s Renewable Energy Target in the 2030 Electricity Mix
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Estimating an aggressive mix for a climate-friendly electricity generation
in 2030
RE Source
Low Carbon
Growth Report
(BU)
Bottom-Up
Analysis
(BU)
Solar
275
356
Hydro
230
239
Wind
279
371
Biomass
70
59
Others
-
16
TOTAL
854
1,041
SOURCE: Planning Commission. The Final report of the Expert Growth on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth, 2014; CEEW Analysis
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Aggressive ambition at what cost?
Households
By Income
Proportion Expenses Utilized for Electricity
BAU
Global 2oC
100 GW Solar +
170 GW Wind
150 GW Solar +
170 GW Wind
<10%
22%
29%
18%
18%
10%-20%
14%
19%
12%
11%
20%-30%
11%
15%
9%
9%
30%-40%
9%
12%
8%
7%
40%-50%
8%
11%
7%
6%
50%-60%
7%
9%
6%
5%
60%-70%
6%
8%
5%
5%
70%-80%
5%
7%
4%
4%
80%-90%
4%
5%
3%
3%
90%-100%
2%
3%
2%
2%
Total Incremental
Cost Required
-
-
452
715
(%)
(2010, USD billion)
SOURCE: CEEW Analysis
(24% of India’s
GDP in 2013)
(38% of India’s
GDP in 2013)
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Conclusion
•
•
•
Leadership from the Major Emitting Regions
•
India could push its ambition to target
has not been forthcoming
1,041 billion units of renewable energy
When compared with China, India has shown
electricity in 2030.
leadership in the climate arena and continues •
This is greater than the generation from
to do so
all other sources in 2013-14
Highly vulnerable countries like India need to
act on two fronts –
– Press major emitters to increase their
•
This ambition will come at a cost –
– To the entire economy
– To individual households
mitigation targets
– Increase their ambition to reduce the
vulnerability of its own population
•
Technology partnerships and financial mechanisms need to be important pillars of any new
agreement
•
There is a need to formulate a framework to assess the capacity of developing countries to
commit to climate actions
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THANK YOU
http://ceew.in
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http://ceew.in
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