Transcript Концепция форсайта мировой энергетики д

World Energy - 2050
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
The 6TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference on Sustainable
Development RIO+ 20
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012
The goals and tasks of the study
Our goal is comprehensive, long-term and non-inertial forecast of world
energy development in the light of revealed today energy and technological
trends, the relationship of economy, energy and society, and the likely
recurrence of crises before 2050
By 2050: possibility of profound
changes in world energy mix
By 2030: dominance of the fossil fuels
is likely to continue
2010: current situation
The probability of breaking up of current trends and profound changes in the global
energy mix may have a powerful impact on the Russian economy and energy sector
through the situation on foreign markets and energy technologies
2
New global challenges and risks
Geopolitics
• The Arab revolutions
• Geopolitical crisis in the
Middle East
• The threat of a new oil
shock
• The problem of energy
security
Global economy
• The sharp rise in oil
prices
• A new wave of economic
crisis
• Government programs to
reduce dependence on
energy imports
Technology
• Shale gas revolution
• Energy Revolution in
transportation (hybrids,
electric vehicles)
• Radiation accident at
NPP "Fukushima-1"
• Smart Energy
3
Comparison with forecasts of other research organisations
12
Shell Scramble
scenario
Shell Blueprint
scenario
10
Consensus forecast of
energy future forecasts
High uncertainty
World consumption of primary
Greenpeace reference
energy
scenario
8
Greenpeace energy
revolution scenario
А1В IPCC
6
А1T IPCC
4
IEA SD Vision
scenario
IES reference
scenario
2
IES stagnation
scenario
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
RES
Global primary energy consumption by 2050, bln toe
19.5-22.5 billion toe in 2050
Proportions of the consumption of
coal and gas
from 2.5:1 by Shell to 1:2.5 by IEA
The share of nuclear energy
from 3.7% to 15.1%
Reducing the share of oil
from 35% to 25%
The growth of biomass consumption
from 7.4% to 15%
Increase in the share of RES
from 6% to 17-22%
IES innovative
scenario
4
Methodology
Data
Model
Findings
• Analysis of trends
• Resource and environmental constraints
• Technology foresight
• Scenarios of global development
• The simulations on models GEM and MACRO
• Accounting for cycles and crises
• Interpretation of results
• Key possibilities and risk
• View from Russia
The scenario is the assemblage point of demographic, economic, technological, political,
social, cultural, environmental and energy trends
Not just an extrapolation of existing trends, but analysis of conflicts between them and the
assessment of the prospects of their breakup
5
Cyclical crises as a point of scenario bifurcation
20
Global primary energy
consumption, bln toe
15
Continuation of the
pre-crisis growth path
Crisis of the
2010th
10
5
Fact
0
1900
Coal
Crisis of the
1970th
Crisis of the
1930th
1925
Inhibition of growth and
stagnation
1950
Oil
1975
2000
Gas &
nuclear
2025
2050
Electric World &
Renewables
6
Key characteristics of the scenarios
in the World Energy - 2050
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Energy-intensive
Energy-saving
Energy-efficient
Carbon-intensive
Renewables and gas
Renewables and nuclear
Geopolitical rivalry and
economic competition
Global climate and
energy policy
The innovative competition
and technology
Complex regionalization of Slowing globalization
economy and energy sector
Resource globalization and
technological globalization
High growth of global
primary energy
consumption
Slowing growth of
global primary energy
consumption
Shift from commodities
market to the services and
technologies market
High oil prices and heyday
of oil business
The stagnation of oil
business
The sunset of oil business
7
Key findings
8
By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will be passed
12
Global primary energy
consumption, bln toe
8
7
10
6
Primary energy consumption in China, bln toe
The gap between the western way of development
and the possible way of China
Факт
Fact
Инерционный
сценарий
Reference scenario
8
5
6
4
Стагнационный
сценарий
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Инновационный
сценарий
3
4
2
2
Proximity of scenarios due to
compensation of GDP growth by
increasing energy efficiency
1
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ОЭСР,
факт
Fact OECD
РС,
факт
Fact
non-OECD
Инерционный
сценарий,
ОЭСР
Reference scenario,
OECD
Инерционный
сценарий,
РС
Reference scenario,
non-OECD
Стагнационный
сценарий,
ОЭСР
Stagnation scenario,
OECD
Стагнационный
сценарий,РС
Stagnation scenario,
non-OECD
Иннновационыйсценарий,
ОЭСР
Innovative scenario, OECD
Иннновационый
сценарий,
РС
Innovative scenario,
non-OECD
Source: WEO 2010, China’s
Energy and Carbon Emissions
Outlook to 2050, Institute of
Energy Strategy
9
Shift in the global energy mix to local fuels
2050,
инновационный
2050,
Innovative
сценарий
scenario
Oil
Нефть
Gas
Газ
Coal
Уголь
Nuclear энергия
Атомная
Biomass
Биомасса
Large hydro
Гидро
Renewables
НВИЭ
2050,
стагнационный
2050,
Stagnation
сценарий
scenario
2050,
инерционный
2050,
Reference
сценарий
scenario
2010
bln toe
0
4
8
12
16
20
 By 2050 global primary energy consumption will rise 1.2-1.6 times
 The share of RES in the structure of the global energy mix will reach 10 - 34%
 The share of oil will drop to 29-16%, an absolute reduction is possible
 Gas consumption will grow
 High uncertainty about nuclear power remains
10
World energy sector will shift to resource regionalization and
technological globalization
Share of international trade share in global consumption
 The peak of international trade share in
global energy consumption will be passed by
2030
80
%
70
60
 In place of the now dominant resource
globalization will come resource
regionalization
50
40
30
A fundamental factor in the resource
regionalization will be the shift in energy
mix to local fuels, including renewables
20
10
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Инерционный
сценарий,
Reference scenario,
oil нефть
Reference scenario,
gas природный газ
Инерционный
сценарий,
Stagnation scenario,
oil нефть
Стагнационный
сценарий,
Stagnation scenario,
gas природный газ
Стагнационный
сценарий,
Innovative scenario,
oil нефть
Инновационный
сценарий,
Innovative scenario,
gas природный газ
Инновационный
сценарий,
 With the resource regionalization will
increase the importance of technological
and organizational globalization
11
Shift from power energy to smart energy
Intelligence
Systematic character
Environmentfriendliness
• Smart grids
• Energy saving
• Targeted delivery of energy
•
•
•
•
•
•
Technologies of accumulation of power
Decentralization of power capacities
Electricity systems of new generation
Renewable Energy
Alternative fuels for transport
Carbon markets
The shift from energy commodities market
to the energy services and technologies market
Energy
commodities
market
2010
Energy
service
market
2030
Energy
technology
market
2050
12
The end of oil era is possible…
Oil consumption, mln t
2050,2050,
инновационный
Innovative
сценарий
scenario
Потребление
2050,2050,
стагнационный
Stagnation
сценарий
scenario
нефти, млн т
The crisis in oil demand
2050,
инерционный
2050,
Reference
сценарий
scenario
 The peak of world oil consumption
will not have been passed up to 2050
ONLY in the reference scenario
2010
0
EU
ЕС
Russia
Россия
Middle
East
Ближний
Восток
1000
2000
US
США
China
Китай
Other
non-OECD
Другие
РС
3000
4000
5000
Other
OECD
ОЭСР-другие
India
Индия
2050, Innovative
scenario
In the stagnation scenario, the peak will
take place around 2040, and in
innovation - around 2030
 Revolutionary changes in the
transport sector are possible: electric
and hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles,
gas and biogas
2050, инновационный сценарий
2050, Stagnation
2050, стагнационный
сценарий
scenario
2050, инерционный
сценарий
2050,
Reference scenario
2010
0
Motor vehicle
Автомобильный
транспорт
Electricity
&
heating
Котельно-печное топливо
Прочие
Others сектора
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Other transport
Другие
виды транспорта
Chemicals
Нефтехимия
13
Will the Golden Age of Gas come?
5000
Gas consumption, bcm
Rapid
growth
of
gas
consumption, especially in the
saturated markets of Asia
4000
3000
Share of unconventional gas
will grow, including gas
hydrates
2000
The integration of regional gas
markets through the LNG flows
1000
The evolution of pricing in the
gas market
0
2010
ЕС
EU
China
Китай
2050,
инерционный
Reference
сценарий
scenario
США
US
India
Индия
2050,
2050,
стагнационный
инновационный
Stagnation
Innovative
сценарий
сценарий
scenario
scenario
ОЭСР-другие
Россия
Other OECD
Russia
The shift from the "geopolitics
of oil" to the "geopolitics of gas”
Другие
РС
Other non-OECD
14
World energy sector will move to the «electric world»
2050, инновационный
2050, Innovative
scenario
сценарий
стагнационный
2050,2050,
Stagnation
scenario
сценарий
Reference сценарий
scenario
2050,2050,
инерционный
2010
*1000 bln kW-h
0
ЕС
EU
США
US
ОЭСР-другие
Other
OECD
10
Россия
Russia
20
30
Китай
China
Индия
India
40
50
60
Другие
РС
Other
non-OECD
2050,
Innovative scenario
2050,
инновационный
сценарий
2050,
Stagnation scenario
2050,
стагнационный
сценарий
2050,
инерционный
сценарий
2050,
Reference scenario
*1000 bln kW-h
2010
0
Нефть
Oil
Газ
Gas
Уголь
Coal
10
Атом
Nuclear
20
30
40
Большие
гидро
Large hydro
50
60
Новые ВИЭ
Renewables
15
Strategies of key actors in different scenarios
Reference
scenario
Stagnation
scenario
Innovative
scenario
Geopolitical rivalry
 Three strategies - control over demand (EU), control over
supply (OPEC, China, Russia), the control of transit and trade
(United States, transit countries)
Different ways of adapting to a new global climate and
energy policy
 The role of resource and geopolitical factors will decline
The role of legal and environmental factors will increase
 Conflicts in the regulation
 Strategies of countries will be determined by different
speed of transition to an innovative energy sector
 World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional
fuel energy zone
The innovative competition
Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 2050
16
The Energy of the Future in our Hands
Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOV
Deputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow