Transcript CCC Communications Strategy
www.theccc.org.uk
Building a Low-Carbon Economy – Tackling Climate Change: the Business Opportunities Professor Julia King
Climate Change Committee Member Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham Be Birmingham Summit 26 th June 2009
In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging targets for Government…
Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050 Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020... And by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal
These challenging targets will drive major new business opportunities across a range of sectors
2050 - the scale of the UK challenge
695 Mt CO 2 e International aviation & shipping* 42 98 UK non-CO 2 GHGs Other CO 2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) 108 Residential & commercial heat 103 134 Domestic transport 77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990) 159 Mt CO 2 e 184 Electricity generation 2006 emissions 2050 objective * bunker fuels basis
Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Application of power to transport and heat • • •
Reducing transport emissions:
Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Sustainable biofuels • • • • •
Reducing heat emissions:
Energy efficiency Behaviour change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry
POWER SECTOR: required reductions
Emissions intensity to 2050 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 2050 Power generation to 2050 600 500 400 300 90% path 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
HOMES: emissions reduction from energy use in homes, MtCO 2
HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical potential in 2020
TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon vehicles in achieving CO 2 targets Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the long term
MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen.
Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO 2 /Km is met in the UK.
Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.
Industry view of the high-level technology & R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport
Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009
EVs: new technologies – new opportunities New car sales by year (extreme range scenario) Number of cars in the UK car parc (extreme range scenario)
Arup/CENEX report for BERR and DfT 2008
Electric vehicles are feasible now
► The infrastructure is almost in place ► Some vehicles are already available ► highly efficient ► ranges of 60 to 200+ miles ► some are glamorous!
► Additional power system load is easily manageable ► 17% additional generation capacity ► exploit night time trough and day time dips with smart metering
New business opportunities: POWER
New initiatives in power generation Renewable Obligation Certificates: 1.5 -15% renewables by 2020 bioenergy combined heat and power major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020 CCS, new nuclear build
New business opportunities: HOMES
DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation Feb 09) by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered ‘whole house’ packages if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business new types of business, new business models employment and skills High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground source heat pumps…
New business opportunities: CARS
Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstrator announced 23 rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the UK the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by 2023: 1.4 million vehicles Skills for maintenance and repair New infrastructure High efficiency electric motors, AC…