Transcript Climate Protection Strategies and Transformation of Energy Systems Dr. Astrid Schulz German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Secretariat.

Climate Protection Strategies and
Transformation of Energy
Systems
Dr. Astrid Schulz
German Advisory Council on Global Change
WBGU Secretariat
German Advisory Council on Global Change
to the Federal Government (WBGU)
Members:
A. Epiney, Inst. Droit Européen, Fribourg
Mission:
•
H. Graßl, MPI Hamburg
R. Schubert, ETH Zürich
•
M. E. Kulessa, FH Mainz
J. Luther, Fraunhofer ISE Freiburg
F. Nuscheler, INEF Duisburg
R. Sauerborn, Univ. Heidelberg
H.-J. Schellnhuber, Tyndall Centre
E.-D. Schulze, MPI Jena
•
set up by the Federal
Government in 1992 as an
independent advisory body
Every two years submits a
report to the Federal
Government containing
recommendations for research
and further action to combat
global problems in the field of
environment and development.
Special reports and policy
papers for particular events
Climate Protection Strategies
for the 21st Century: Kyoto and
beyond
Special report, November 2003
Towards Sustainable Energy
Systems
Report
Summer 2003 (german)
Spring 2004 (english)
Ecological guard rails
• Climate protection
 temperature rise < 2°C and <0.2°C /decade
• Sustainable land use
 10-20% of global surface reserved for nature conservation
 Less than 3% for bioenergy crops or carbon sequestration
• Protection of rivers and catchment areas
 10-20% of riverine ecosystems reserved for nature
conservation
• Protection of marine ecosystems
 No use of oceans for carbon storage
• Prevention of atmospheric air pollution
Challenge: Sustainable Development
• 2 billion people live in energy poverty
• Access to modern energy services condition for development
• 1,6 millions die every year due to traditional biomass burning
Source: IEA
6
Socioeconomic guard rails
• Access to advanced energy for all
• Meet individual requirements for energy
 By 2020 at least 500 kWh per person
 By 2050 at least 700 kWh per person
• Limit proportion of income spent for energy
 Poor households: <10% of income for energy
• Minimum macroeconomic development
• Keep risks within a normal range
 Phase out of nuclear power
• Prevent desease caused by energy use
Long-term scenarios
Basis for the WBGU exemplary path: A1T-450
(IPCC-Post-SRES scenario, IIASA, MESSAGE-Model)
A
High economic growth
1
Economic and social convergence, globalization,
cooperation between regions
T
dynamical technological development towards
non-fossile energy sources
450
CO2 stabilization level in ppmv.
From temperatures to
stabilization levels
450 ppm CO2 path
(until 2100)
Different values of climate
Sensitivity
A1T-scenario
WBGU Exemplary Path
Three pillars:
•
•
•
Declining use of
fossil fuel
Rising use of
renewables
Growing energy
Productivity
Energy productivity to be improved 1.4% per year initially,
later 1.6% p.a. (historical: 1%).
Improve energy productivity
• Establish international standards prescribing
minimum efficiencies for fossil fueled power plants
• By 2012 generate 20% of electricity in the EU
through combined heat and power (setting binding
national quotas)
• Create incentives for efficiency through ecological
financial reforms and remove subsidies for fossil and
nuclear energy
• Improve information of end user (harmonization of
efficiency standards and labels)
Sustainable potential of technologies
The potential of an energy source covering all aspects
of sustainability: requires careful examination of
different ecological and socio-economic aspects.
Examples:
Technology
Already used
potential (EJ/a)
Sustainable
potential (EJ/a)
Hydropower
9.9
12 (by 2020)
Solar electricity
0.01
> 1000
For comparison: global consumption in 2000 was 420 EJ.
WBGU Exemplary Path:
Global Energy mix
Characteristics of WBGU exemplary path
Increased energy productivity
•Factor 3 by 2050 (1.6% increase)
Phase out of non sustainable energy sources
•Fossil fuels: long term phase out necessary
•Nuclear energy: phase out by 2050
Phase in of renewable energy: 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050, 85% by 2100
•Solar energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade)
•Wind energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade until 2020)
•Biomass: Conservative assessment of sustainable potential (100 EJ/a)
•Hydro, Geothermal: Conservative assessment (15 EJ/a, 20 EJ/a)
CO2 sequestration necessary
•200 Gt storage total (transition technology), use of depleted oil and gas fields
•Biomass + sequestration (negative emissions)
Visualization of surface Area required for
solar electricity by 2050
a)
Area for North America, 100% solar power plants
b)
Area for Western Europe:
2/3 generated in Europe (25% solar power plants, 75% distributed)
1/3 generated in Sahara (100% solar power plant)
Advancing Research and
Development
Increase government expenditure on energy research
• Ten-fold by 2020 (OECD)
International cooperation
• UN: World Energy Research Cooperation Programme (WERCP)
(in analogy to World Climate Research Programme)
16
Model projects for strategic leverage
Model projects - examples
• Substitution of traditional biomass use by biogenic bottled gas
• Energy-efficient buildings in the low-cost sector (South African
townships)
• One-million-huts electrification programme“ for DC (off-grid)
Energy partnerships
• Strategic Energy partnership, e.g. between EU and North Africa
17
Uncertainties relating to permissible
emissions between 2000 and 2100
Model results for a pure CO2 emission scenario (no other GhG or aerosols
included) for absolute warming below 2 C (Kriegler and Bruckner, 2003)
Divergence of 1,500 GtC exceeds the cumulative
emissions of the exemplary path (650 GtC)
Note: the exemplary path also gives consideration to other GhG and
aerosol effects: the path remains inside the WBGU climate window for a
climate sensitivity of up to 2.2 C.
Elements of WBGU transformation
strategy
• Eradicating energy poverty
•
Improving energy productivity
•
Expanding renewables substantially
•
Mobilizing financial resources
•
Using model projects for strategic leverage
•
Advance in research and development
•
Strengthening global energy policy institutions
Climate Protection Strategies
for the 21st Century: Kyoto and
beyond
Special report, November 2003
Choice of Scenarios
WBGU constraints:
•Biomass use (incl. non-commercial) limited to 100 EJ
•Hydro limited to 12 EJ medium term (15 EJ long term)
•Nuclear plants globally phased out until 2050
•Cumulative CO2 storage 300 GtC maximum
(storage phasing out 2100)
Primary energy use in IIASAWBGU-Scenarios
A1T*
A1T*-450
B1*
B1*-400
Primary energy use in IIASAWBGU-Scenarios
B2
B2-400
Emission entitlements
NAM – North America (USA, Canada), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey), PAO – Pacific OECD (Japan,
NZ,Australia), EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, CPA –
Centrally planned Asia and China, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), PAS – Other Pacific Asia, LAM – Latin America and the
Carribean, MEA – Middle East, AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa
IIASA World regions
Cumulative CO2 emissions
Effects of mitigation on GDP
AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa, CPA – Centrally
planned Asia and China, EEU – Central and
Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states
of the former Soviet Union, LAM – Latin America
and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, NAM –
North America (USA, Canada), PAO – Pacific, PAS
– Other Pacific Asia, SAS – South Asia (incl. India),
WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey).
Recommendations emission reductions
• CO2 target below 450 ppm, otherwise climate
window will be left in case climate sensitivity
exceeds 2 ºC.
• Global energy and industry related CO2
emissions must be reduced by 45-60% by
2050.
• Industrialized countries must reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions from the use of
fossil fuels by at least 20% by 2020.
For further information and download/order of
reports:
www.wbgu.de
[email protected]
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