Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014

Analyzing risks

The Geopolitics of Land Degradation

Caux July 1st 2014 Luc GNACADJA

Biodiversity

Risks & Threats in the 21st Century

"Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes will continue throughout this century,

with land use change being the main threat in the short term , and climate change becoming progressively much

more important over the next several decades.” Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services Source: CBD , 2010)

Planetary Boundaries Expansion of global cropland till 2050: Overshoot safe operating space

Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014

Land use change has transformed the Biosphere

World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)

Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)

Global land use is a key indicator of global sustainability and must be assessed & monitored

World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)

• • • •

The world might need additional cropland the size of Brazil by 2050 The total additional land use demand in 2030 compare to land use in 2000 is 792 million ha in BAU scenario.

Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011) (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014)

Where will such expansion take place? Again over the remaining natural habitats while out there are more than 2 billion hectares of landscape that still hold potential for restoration?

Hot spots of the security-related impacts of Climate Change and Desertification Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014 • • • 3 Conflicts Constellations Water Scarcity Loss of Land Food Insecurity • • • • 4 HotsSpots Sahel: Desertification & Drought Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity & Drought Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity & Desertification South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones

Migration Environment & Conflicts

Migration main trajectories Drought Desertification Water Scarcity are major push factors for environmentally induced migration Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)

DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?

It’s all about trade-offs 1. Undisturbed Forest U s e Grassland 2. Extensive 3. Intensive Function change or Function trade off i n t e f i i n s c a t i Source: PBL 2009 o n

DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?

It’s all about trade-offs 1. Undisturbed 2. Extensive 3. Intensive Function change or Function trade off Forest 4. .. Degraded?

U s e i n t e n s i o n i i f c a t Grassland

Future scenarios Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World ( LDNW ) by 2030 Potential

Soil factor

NPP Food Fiber Water Floods Climate Biodiversity LDNW Restoration Prevention Business as usual 0 1990 2000 Time 2010 2020 2030 2040

LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically & economically productive land including soil and its ecosystem services as in 2000

2050

Objectif: Operate Land use expansion on already degraded areas Priorities: 1. Prevent degradation 2. Restore degraded areas

Conclusion

Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon 

‘We abuse respect.’ land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and



‘We cannot command Nature except by obeying her.’ Thank you

OWG-12

Preliminary

List of SDGs

on June 16th 2014 Can’t see where CONSERVATION does’nt somehow qualify