Transcript Towards_a_Land_Degradation_Neutral_World_LaunchofPolicyBrief

2014 Inter-Parliamentary Regional Hearing on
Exemplary Forest Policies in Africa
Nariobi, 1 – 3 October 2014
Tackling Land Degradation:
A Prerequisite for Human Security
Luc GNACADJA - World Future Council
Outline
1. Land degradation/Desertification?
Human Security?
2. The tradeoffs in land use change:
Progress or Degradation?
3. How LD threatens human security
and global sustainability?
4. Restoring more than we degrade:
Land degradation neutrality in the
Sust. Dev. Goals (SDGs)
Desertification: a global challenge in a Vicious Cycle
Desertification =
Land Degradation in
dry lands
Land Degradation?
Long-term loss of land
(terrestrial bio productive syst.)
productivity from which
the land cannot recover
unaided
Causes of Land
Degrad./Desertification
• Deforestation
• Overgrazing
• Unsustainable Agriculture
A Vicious Cycle
• Soil Erosion (Wind & Water)
Tradeoffs in land use change:
Forest
Progress or degradation?
1. Undisturbed
2. Extensive
Function
change
or
3. Intensive
Function
trade
off
U
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t
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s
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f
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c
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Grassland
Source: PBL 2009
From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation
Smart Policies needed to
transform tradeoffs in synergies
1. Undisturbed
2. Extensive
Function
change
or
3. Intensive
Function
trade
off
4. ..
Degraded?
Forest
U
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n
t
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s
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f
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c
a
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Grassland
In too many places,
achievements in production
have been associated with
management practices that
have degraded the land & water
Status & Trends in Global Land Degradation
Source: SOLAW 2011 - FAO
Human Security?
 Human Security (HS) concept connotes that of Human
Development
 Here, “Security” means freedom from fear, freedom
from want and freedom to live in dignity.
 Human security addresses human vulnerability and
lack of resilience vis-à-vis security threats and risks in
areas such as economic, food, health, environmental,
personal, community, political.
 It’s a people-centered concept of security understood as
necessary for national, regional and global security and
stability.
How Land Degradation threatens
Human Security?
Extreme
Poverty
Food insecurity
CC: Loss of
resilience &
Economics:
Increased
emissions of GHG
& Hunger
LD cost up to
5% GDP/Year
Water stress
& Increased
vulnerability to
Drought
Biodiversity
Loss
Environ. induced
Instability &
Deforestation
Degradation
of Livelihoods
Crises
Migrations
LD = Depletion of resource base for HS
Land Degradation & Drought: Fight or Flee?
Land Degrad.
Drought
Loss of BioProductivity
Vulnerability
Poverty
Food
Insecurity
Conflicts
over Scarcer
Resources
Fight or
Flee
 by 2020 an estimated 60 million people could move from the desertified
areas of Sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa & Europe
 by 2050, 200 million people may be permanently displaced
environmental migrants in the World
Drylands: The World’s most conflict-prone region
Drylands and Conflicts - Source: “Common Wealth” , J. Sachs)
Drylands: The World’s most conflict-prone region
Desertification Vulnerability in
Africa, 2008
Conflicts & Food Riots in Africa,
2007-2008
Terrorists Attacks in 2012
In ‘Desertification, The Invisible Frontline’; UNCCD
2014
Environment degradation - Migrations & Conflicts
Migration main
trajectories
Major push factors
of
environmentallyinduced migration:
• Drought
• Desertification
• Water Scarcity
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)
Vulnerability to desertification:
A migration push factor?
Desertification and
drought global hot
spots have become
major global sources
of environmentallyinduced migrations
Global Desertification Vulnerability
Drylands are not marginal lands
The real value of Drylands
 1/3 of the world land mass and population
 44% of the World’s food production system
 50% of the World’s livestock
 Dry forest made 42% of the earth's tropical and
subtropical open or closed forests
 Home to the world’s largest diversity of
mammals whose survival, literally, hangs on the
arid zone forests
Climate Change:
DROUGHT may threaten much of the
globe within decades
• % of Earth’s land area stricken by
serious drought has more than doubled
from the 1970s to the early 2000s
• Africa is the most drought stricken and
vulnerable region of the world
• Since 2009, 7 out of the 10 worst
drought disasters in the world have
been taken place in sub-Saharan Africa
• Yet no country in the continent has
effective drought preparedness and
risk management policies &
institutions
Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR); July 2012
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades
Land Degradation: Africa is
most vulnerable region
 Weather shocks: the occurrence of
droughts affecting over 2 M people
has increased from 20% (1970s) to
90% (2000s)
 Social & resource-based conflict:
 Horn of Africa: home to over 4 million
internally displaced and 2.5 million refugees
due to war and drought
 Sahel region: home to over 500,000
internally displaced and 400,000 refugees
 Vulnerability is compounded by land
degradation: over 3% of Africa’s
agricultural GDP is lost annually—
equivalent to US$ 9 billion per year-as
a direct result of soil and nutrient loss
• Over 45% of Africa was affected by
desertification. 80% of the pasture &
rangeland seriously eroded/degraded
Risk of human-induced desertification
From “Land resource stresses and desertification in Africa “ Published
in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H. Eswaran , 2001
Can this man-made barren land
thrive again?
Niger Republic, West Africa, 1980’s
20
1955
B
Dynamics of land
use and vegetation
in Southwest of
Zinder, Niger
1975
2005
A
C
Transformed landscape:
Farmer-managed natural
regeneration - FMNR
‘Underground forests’:
Tony’s eureka moment in Niger
• FMNR = Farmer-managed
natural regeneration, one of
the most successful and costeffective agro-forestry
schemes for regenerating
desertified land by managing
living tree stumps & roots
• “When you understand
desertified land you can
restore them”
(Tony Rinaudo)
Impacts of Farmer-managed natural
regeneration (FMNR) in Niger
 5,000,000 ha re-greened in 20 years (only
labour for protection, investment in extension,
no recurrent costs to governments)
 200 million new trees
 additional cereal production/year: 500,000 ton
 2.5 million people fed
 1.25 million rural households involved
Challenges for scaling up and dissemination
 Secure Land tenure and Land use rights
 Public investments on infrastructures
 Access to market
 Tailored legislation, policies & institutions
Comparative Overview of Terroirs on Opposite Sides of the Niger-Nigeria Border
Source: Google Earth, 2005
Niger
Desertification & Drought when compounded with weak
governance often fuel tribal / political / religious fights
Nigeria
25
Degraded Lands are
underperforming Assets
450 Millions ha …
More than in any other
continent!
Desertification Vulnerability in Africa
Published in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H.
Eswaran , 2001
Investments in Drylands can pay off
Many drylands in developing countries have been
investment deserts for too long, yet sustained higher
levels of investment can enhance productivity and boost
incomes.
 For the greatest gains, investments need to be
configured to the short and long-term variability of
these human-ecological systems.
There are opportunities to suit all sectors
 For the public, private large-scale commercial,
community and household, and private small-scale
sectors
Investments areas: renewable energy, education, health,
water, farmland, pasture and livestock, woodland and
trees, land use, conservation and tourism, urban
development, markets, innovation and risk management,
etc.
The potential benefits
of drylands (at local,
regional & global levels)
have not been fully
utilized because of:
• Myths & stigma
• Market failures,
• Lack of public goods,
• Weak incentives,
• High investment
costs and
• Gender inequalities.
(Source: ‘Global Drylands UN System Wide Rapid Response’ UNEP-EMG, 2011
Restoring more than we degrade:
Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030
Potential
Soil factor
NPP
LDNW
Restoration: Type 2&3
Food
Fiber
Water
Floods
Climate
Biodiversity
Prevention: Type1
Business as usual
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Time
SDG Goal 15 & target 15.3 by 2030
“Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial
ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification,
and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss”
28
Poverty eradication
Improving livelihood through
pro-poor policies on
Sustainable Land & Water
Management
Food Security
Preserving the resource base
for food security – Land
productivity/Soil fertility
improvement at the core of all
long term strategies
Drought &
Water stress
Improving water availability &
quality through sustainable
land & water management
LAND-DEGRADATION
Climate change
Biodiversity
NEUTRALITY:
Land is a win-win context for
Biodiversity conservation
A FRAMEWORK FOR
adaptation, mitigation & INTEGRATED LANDSCAPEthrough improvement of land
resilience building
ecosystems’ conditions
MANAGEMENT
Avoided
Deforestation
Sust. Land Management &
Restoration of degraded
Lands as an alternative to
Deforestation
Bio Energies
Opportunities for Bio
energies through biomass
production
Avoiding environ.
Forced Migrations
Changing the DAM paradigm
“Degrade-Abandon-Migrate”
Historical Fact:
Mankind is a Desert-making
Species
Please
Join
Thank
You
My hope is
That this generation will initiate the
restoration age