Transcript 幻灯片 1
International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team Outline China’s Present Situation Policies and Actions in China Building Together for Another Future Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change Changes of Annual Average Temperature in China (1951-2001) Source: CMA, 2005 （中国气象局国家气候中心） Temperature increase observed with past half century in most areas, particularly in northern China Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change Changes of Annual precipitation in China (1956-2002) （中国气象局国家气候中心） Source: CMA, 2005 Precipitation increased in southern and western China but decreased in most areas in north and north-east of China Selected Indicators Related to Climate Change Mitigation (2004) Population 1297 million Population below poverty standard* ~30 million GDP (current US$) $1649 billion GDP per capita (current US$) $1272 Annual GDP growth 10.1% Energy consumption 2032 Mtce Energy consumption per capita 1.56 tce Energy mix Coal 67.7%, Oil 22.7% Gas 2.6%, others 7.0% Energy related CO2 emissions (2002) 1032MtC CO2 Emissions per capita (2002) 0.8tC CO2 emissions per GDP (2002) 0.75kgC/$ Source: WB, China Statistic Yearbook, WRI-CAIT Share of Global Energy CO2 Emissions (2002) Others, 30.35% Canada, 2.09% India, 4.49% US, 23.32% Japan, 4.90% Russia, 6.20% EU15, 13.37% Source: WRI-CAIT China, 15.28% Distribution of GHG Emissions from China in 2000 HFC, 0.70% SF4, 0.10% PFC, 0.10% N2O, 13.00% CH4, 15.70% Agriculture 21.20% Waste, 2.40% CO2 70.30% CO2 70.30% Industrial Process, 7.80% GHG Energy Sector Source: WRI-CAIT Energy Demand in China Mtce Projected Energy Demand to 2020, 2030, 2050 7000 Rapid industrialization and urbanization are the key drivers of emissions growth 6000 5000 4000 2225 3000 2000 1386 1000 0 2000 2010 Zhou 2020 Zhidong Li 2030 Source: CASS, 2006 2020 2030 2040 2050 DRC 2020 Xiulian Hu 2050 CDM Engagement registered project by host party 2. Policy and Actions The first National Communication (NC) including country GHG inventories 1994 has submitted. China is applying GEF for financial support to formulate its second NC. National climate change strategy are under formulation and will be issued for implementation soon. Sustainable development policies and measures that are in line with climate change convention goals are taken as the national development strategy. the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010) 20% Energy Intensity Reduction Target t/10000yuan (1980 price) Energy Intensity 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 In 1980 prices 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 98 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 01 2.0 Year Source: CASS, 2006 For the first time, controlling CO2 emissions is specified as one of the goals for the country over the next 5 years. National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020 Renewable Energy • 11th Five-year Plan: 30 large scale wind farms with the capacity of 100Mw; Grid-connected wind and biomass will reach 5 Gw and 5.5 Gw respectively. • Medium and Long term National Planning of Renewable Development: renewable energy supply 400-500 Mtce, about 1/7 of primary energy consumption, installation capacity of renewable energy30% of the total generation capacity. Wind power: Over 60 wind farm in 15 provinces, installed capacity 504MW in 2005 Deployment of Renewables Energy Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005, specific measures including financial and economic incentives are under consideration Solar thermal: Production capacity 15 million m2, annual increase rate 28% Solar PV: Installed capacity over 70 MW, annual market growth 20% Small hydropower: over 60,000 stations of installed capacity 50GW in rural area Biomass: 17 million household biogas digesters, over 1,600 industrial-scale biogas plants, two ethanol fuel production bases, about 500,000 tons bio-oils produced, biomass power installed capacity 2,000 MW National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020 Nuclear power • capacity installation for operation 40 GW, 4% of total generation capacity, 6% of total electricity production Natural gas • With optimistic estimates, production will increase from 39 billion m3 in 2004 to 200 billion m3 in 2020. Da Ya Wan nuclear power station in Guangdong Talimu gas field in Xinjiang National CDM Fund -the First Carbon-driven Fund in China Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects, particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged; Objectives: helping national wide actions to address climate change including, Research and training for capacity building Mitigation & adaptation activities Facilitating preparation of CDM project Other climate change related activities 3. Building together for Prosperous Future The Government of China has stressed: “scientific development focusing on human-centered, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, to promote the integrated development of economy, society and humanity”. Weather and climate affect every aspect of people’s lives and wellbeing, and strongly affect our ability to achieve national sustainable development goals and policies (economic, social and environmental). Mainstreaming climate change policy into sustainable development strategy International Cooperation UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (AP6) • 6 members: US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and India • 8 public-private sector taskforces: to prepare a work plan and identify flagship projects • Funding announced: Australia A$100m over 5 years, US US$52m for 2007 G8 + 5 China-EU Other bilateral and multilateral mechanisms (ChinaCanada, China-Japan, China-Brazil, China-India, ChinaAustralia, China-USA, ……) Climate Change Mitigation Potential Projected (tce/10000 yuan RMB) GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050 Energy demand will be reduced by 27% (1708Mtce) in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China. 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Energy intensity/GDP(BAU) Energy intensity/GDP (TAP) CO2 Emission in China,2050 (Mt-C) CO2 emission(BAU) CO2 emission(TAP) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 39% CO2 emission will be reduced by 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China Source: ERI, 2005 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Engagement of Social Actors Government CC &SD Civil society (NGOs, Scientific communities, etc.) Regulation Business Costs Competitiveness of Company Reputation NGOs promote 26℃ Energy Saving Action for Air Conditioner every summer New business Individuals also have a role to play One-off consumables in hotel waste Food over-packed moon cake 3R (Reduction, Reuse and Recycling) to build a more resources efficient and environmental friendly society China’ Position Towards a post-2012 Regime Following the principle of Common but differentiated responsibilities Addressing Climate change under the framework of sustainable development Taking Technology transfer and cooperation as a key to address climate change Paying equal attention to mitigation and adaptation Intensifying international cooperation China is towards achieving ustainable future with the world.