Transcript Document
GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM?
- Astana, 4-5 September 2008
Slav Slavov Regional Manager for Europe & Central Asia
WHAT IS WEC?
WEC founded in 1923 all energies and global non governmental long term reflection short term action Rome Congress 2007 Montreal Congress 2010
WEC GLOBAL GOALS ARE: AAA
• A CCESSIBILITY affordable energy; the extent to which people have access to modern and • A VAILABILITY been achieved; reliability+security of energy supply systems once access has A CCEPTABILITY acceptance of the environmental energy transportation and use.
production,
Triple challenge
Sustainability Competitiveness FULLY BALANCED AND MUTUALLY REINFORCED
• •
Timely provided investments
•
Interconnections
(Trans-regional net works)
New technology & cost reduction
Clean coal Carbon sequestration Alternative fuels Energy efficiency Nuclear
Security of supply
• Renewable energy • Energy efficiency • Nuclear option where chosen • Emissions trading • Up-Down stream dialogue & cross-border investments • Diversification of supply sources and routes • Increase share of potential domestic sources • Stocks management & global gas market • Enhancing energy efficiency
WEC MESSAGE
• Delivering sustainability to energy sector should be a priority objective.
It is achievable but…challenges are many, and they must be tackle now and urgently if sustainability is to be achieved in this century; • And, it requires alternative policies.
Why current policies are limited?
• Ineffective and short-sighted ; • Confusing and unfocused; • Inadequate to face the global scale of the issue; • Lead to more energy import dependence.
What priorities of alternative policies should be?
• to restrain emission growth in energy & transport & develop carbon- free initiatives; • to ensure security by increasing share of alternative sources and encourage diversification of current energy mix; • to support technology development & deployment;
Study Background - Population and Energy Consumption Growth
IEA Scenario of energy growth for a sustainable future
• • Energy is and will remain one of the major global concerns Estimated 2050 world population about 9 Billion; • • Electricity Consumption is foreseen to triple to some 45,000 TWh/a; How to reduce emissions without compromising economic development.
Or shift to low C economy?
Source: IEA report “Energy to 2050 – Scenario for a Sustainable Future (2003)”
Which way to take???
Increasing Dependency To Low Carbon Future
The present global energy dynamics are unsustainable.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 7 20
World fossil fuel supplies and energy-related CO2 emissions
business-as-usual base line 9 26 14 40 19 60 CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel use = 60 % of all GHG fossil fuels, btoe CO2 emissions, Gt 1990 30 % 2004 2030 2050 40 %
50 %:
Dcs-overtake emissions from OECD; reaching 60-70% in 2050 Source Figure: 1990-20030: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 492, 493; 2050: IEA, Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage, Paris 2004, p. 101, 109; source insert: 1990-2030: IEA, WEO 2006, p. 492, 512; 2050: WEC, Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond, Report 1995, appendix C, scenario B: share developing countries in world primary energy supplies
Energy and Climate change challenge
• Electricity: 47%-
largest ,but provides greatest reduction leverage;
• Transport: 21%-
Growing everywhere. Key challenge for emissions reduction;
• Industry: 18%-
Fast growth in developing countries; offset by increasing efficiency everywhere;
• Buildings: 13%-
Steady growth; wide variation in emissions intensity.
Global CO
2
Emission Scenarios
Emissions GtCO 2 /yr 60 50 40 A 30 20 B Emissions Stabilization Low Carbon Economy 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 A – Business as usual; B – Roadmap to low carbon future 2040 2050
What WEC is suggesting?
• need to create a global carbon market with a fixed
global carbon value;
•
need to set up global regulations for this market as as well for emission trading;
• Common WEC-WTO efforts on energy +emission trading
rules beyond 2012.
Technology Map for the SET-Plan
•
Other alternatives lead to improve energy mix and reduce dependency
increasing role of RES in energy mix; (20% in Europe by 2020 ?)-very ambitious; • further energy efficiency improvements; • • nuclear renaissance? A burning issue but attractive solution again climate change; Oil from non-traditional resources (oil sands…) (Canada forecasts some 3 Mb/d)
Question : would EI continue to fall down?
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
1973
The world energy intensity was constant (set to 1,0) before the first oil shock and declines after
0.5
0.4
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
WEC Study on Efficiency:Higher GDP for less energy
1.4 % 0.9 % 2.1 % 6.2 % 1.7 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 1.1 %
< 0.2
Primary energy intensity, in toe/$95ppp
Since 1990, EI is declining by 1.5% /y. China accounts for 1/4 of the reduction in the world energy intensity.
Large disparities by region in the energy intensities: a factor 3 between CIS, 2.5 for Middle East and Europe; OECD Asia, India and Latin America (close to Europe); North America, Other Asia and world average: about 30% above Europe; China 40% above Primary energy intensities by world region (at purchasing power parities) (2006) 3 2 1 0
17
Cumulative Investment in Energy Supply Infrastructure, 2006-2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 “Reference Scenario”
Exploration and development Refining Other
73% 22% 5% Oil 24% $5.4 trillion $11.6 trillion Electricity 53% 49% 51%
Power generation Transmission and distribution
Biofuels 1% $4.2 trillion
Exploration and development LNG chain Transmission and distribution
55% 8% 37% Gas 19% Coal 3% Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006) 90% 10%
Mining Shipping and ports
More than 50% of investment needs to 2030 of $22 trillion are in developing countries, 17% in China & another 6% in India alone
What WEC is suggesting here?
• more pragmatism in policy implementation:e.g. • to provide more transparent, predictable and
stable reg.frame (new coal thermal projects);
• to open cross-border investments and cooperation
between energy suppliers & consumers;
• to harmonise cross-border el. tariffs and develop
methods for defining a common price formation (in case of deregulated regional markets)
How easy to do business in Central Asia
•
Starting business
•
(number of days): KZ-21; UZ-13; KG-21; TJ-21; Korea-17; Starting business (number of procedures): KZ- 8; UZ- 7; KG- 8; TJ- 13; Korea- 10;
•
Investor Protection Index (0-lowest; 10-highest): KZ-5,7; UZ-4,3; KG-6,0; TJ-1,7; Korea-5,3;
• •
Enforcing contract ( number of days) KZ-230; UZ-195; KG-177; TJ-295; Korea-230; AFG-1642; Closing business (recovery rate, cents on $1): KZ-23,4; UZ-18,7; KG-15,6; TJ-23,6; Korea-82; finally
•
How easy to do business/2007 Report (among178 countries) KZ-71; UZ-145; KG-88; TJ-153; Korea-30; Russia:106;
Two important WEC-events in September and October
1.
WEC-FT Conference on
Investing in Clean Energy Business
2.
- London,16&17 September WEC High-Level Dialogue between
Caspian Suppliers & European Consumers including the Role of Transit Corridor Countries
- Istanbul, 17 October -