Transcript Presentation - Royal Meteorological Society

Energy Drivers for Emissions
Professor Nigel Brandon
Shell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy
EPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow
Executive Director Energy Futures Lab
GO science Focal Point in Energy with China
www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab
Introduction
• Energy Futures Lab
• Global Energy Drivers and Trends.
• Energy in the UK.
• Conclusions.
The Energy Futures Lab
• Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in
energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering,
policy and business in the energy sector.
• Imperial College has a research budget of £30M pa for energy research, one
third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research
staff and students undertaking energy research.
www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab
Integrating Themes
•Energy systems engineering
•Policy
•Environmental studies
•Sustainability analysis
•Economics
•Energy in society
Service networks
Sustainability
factors
Energy Technologies
•Fuel cells and hydrogen
•Bioenergy
•Solar
•Carbon capture and storage
•Oil and gas
•Transmission and distribution
•Transport
•Nuclear fission and fusion
•Combustion science and engineering
Energy resource flow
Human activities
Land use
City type 459
City scenario
Global Energy Drivers: 1 – Population Growth
2005
(million)
2030
(million)
Canada
32 268
38 880
France
60 496
66 269
Germany
82 689
79 090
Italy
58 093
57 385
Japan
128 085
117 794
Russia
143 202
124 121
59 668
65 895
United States
298 313
364 427
Brazil
186 405
233 884
China
1 315 844
1 438 394
India
1 103 371
1 489 653
107 029
269 211
South Africa
47 432
52 958
World Total
6 464 750
8 246 665
United Kingdom
Mexico
World Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs
Global Energy Drivers: 2 – Energy Security
• Rising Oil Prices.
• Shift in power from energy consumers to energy
producers.
• Link between energy, water and food.
• 400 million people in India have no access to
electricity.
UK Energy Trade and consumption
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE
800
billion cu m
600
400
200
0
1980
1990
2002
Production
Source: IEA
2010
Net imports
2020
2030
Population (billion)
Global Energy Drivers: 3 – Urbanisation
Source: ARUP
Growth in Global Energy Demand
Source: RCEP (2000)
Global Energy Impact: CO2 emissions
Source: DTI (2002). Energy: its impact on the environment and society.
Global Energy Impact: 2 – Pollution
Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00
Acid Rain in China
More than 80 percent of
Chinese cities in a recent
World Bank survey had
sulfur dioxide or nitrogen
dioxide emissions above
the World Health
Organization's threshold.
In 2006, 283 out of 524 cities
recorded acid rain:
•198 cities at 25%
•87 cities at 75%
•6 cities at 100%
Acid rain: pH <5.6
Air Quality Report for 2006, Ministry of Environmental Protection of P. R. China,
http://www.sepa.gov.cn/
Energy consumption in China is accelerating
The increase in China’s energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japan’s annual energy use.
105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW).
Energy consumpation (GT SCE)
3.0
Hydro, nuclear
wind, biomass
2.5
Gas
2.0
Oil
1.5
Coal
1.0
0.5
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1985
1980
1978
0.0
China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/
Incremental increase in energy demand and
energy related CO2 emissions 2000-2006.
World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency
toe per capita
China’s energy consumption per capita is low
World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency
Human development and energy use
A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework for
Analysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).
Rising Transport Demand in China
Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars
for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while
Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000.
China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform
Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on China’s roads by 2010. This
number will increase to 370 million by 2030.
Source: Green Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html
8
7
Oil Demand
100 MT
6
5
4
3
Domestic production
2
1
Transportation accounts for 40% of
annual oil consumption now and is
increasing sharply.
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre
2050
Global energy demand continues to rise
18,000
16,000
million tonnes oil equivalent
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1971
Coal
2002
Oil
Gas
IEA World Energy Outlook
Nuclear
2010
Hydro
2020
Biomass and Waste
2030
Other renewables
Major investment in new energy infrastructure
$22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand.
Cumulative Investment in Energy
Infrastructure 2006-2030
World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency
UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
The size of the challenge: a potential scenario to
reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK
Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).
UK: Energy consumption by sector
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
UK: Energy consumption by transport type
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
UK: Average new car CO2 emissions
and Car use per person
Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport
UK: Domestic energy consumption
Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File.
Building Research Establishment
UK: Ownership of central heating
Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.
UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCC
basis and measurements towards targets
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector
Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.
•
Examples of Energy Technology Development at
Imperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar
Fuel Cell Programme
– Basic materials and device research
– CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with
70 employees and partnership with British
Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP
– Units will reduce household CO2
emissions by 20%
•Solar Programme
•Photosynthesis, photochemistry,
•Bioenergy Programme
organic and nano-materials, device
•Plant biology, microbiology,
physics.
biotechnology and systems process
•Targetting low cost
engineering.
organic solar cells •Translated into a low CO2, low energy
Tomorrows PV.
technique to produce biofuel naturally.
•A vision for direct
solar production of
hydrogen and other
fuels – Artificial Leaf.
PLANET 2050
Grantham Institute
for Climate Change
Programme for Low And Negative Emission Technologies for 2050
PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO2 emissions and beyond
quickly
and without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology
and an integrated system approach.
ELECTRIC FUTURES
ELECTRIC
MOBILITY
LOW
CARBON
ELECTRICITY
SUPPLY
ALLELECTRIC
BUILDINGS
PLANET
2050
CO2
FROM THE
AIR
HYDROGEN
ECONOMY
BIOMASS
BIOFUELS
LOW
CARBON
PRODUCTION
Conclusions
• In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have
available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation.
But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and business
models to meet our 2050 targets.
• We must explore a wide range of options – for example the large-scale use of
low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by
2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are
significant.
• To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D – noting
that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms
since 1980.
• We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economy
– at Imperial we will explore this through our new ‘Planet 2050’ programme.
• Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills – Universities have
an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best
young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.
Thank you
[email protected]
www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab