Transcript Energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region

BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO
Stockholm 5-6 October 2009
Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,
Ea Energy Analyses
Objectives
1.
2.
To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the
involvement of key stakeholders
To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the
region based on an analysis of energy data
Process
PHASE I
- Review of current energy situation
- Scenarios for 2030 – Big-tech and Small -tech
PHASE II
- Detailed scenarios of the electricity markets in
the region 2010-2030
PHASE III
- Follow up analyses
- Case studies
May 2008
Feb 2009
Oct 2009
Developing scenarios
Energy
demand
Fuel
prices
Stakeholder
dialogue
Baltic Sea
Parliamentary
Conference
Efficiency
measures
Scenario
Analyses
EU
Foreign
Ministers
UBC
Basrec
Joint Platform
Energy and
Climate
Infrastructure
Energy
industry
Results
Technology
data
CO2-emissions
Renewable
resources
Storage CO2
Other energy
250
Electricity and district heat
200
Tranport
150
100
50
0
DG TREN DG TREN Ref_North
North
1990
2005
Scenario
DG TREN
2030
Phase I
Targets for 2030
CO2: -50 % (1990)
Oil: -50 % (2005)
Energy intensity
TJ/M€
25
Gross energy consumption
20
PJ
15
10
5
CO2- emissions
Mt CO2 / year
16.000
1.000
14.000
Other energy
Electricity and district
12.000 800
Transport
10.000
Stored CO2
600
50% CO2 target
8.000
0
Nuclear
RE
6.000 400
1990
1995
2000
Natural gas
2005
Coal
4.000
Old200
democracies
New democracies
Oil
2.000
-
50% oil target
-
2005
-200
Reference 2030
Small-Tech
Big-Tech
Phase II
Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030
• Targets
– 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE
– 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to
1990
• Model decides new investments in
generation capacity except nuclear and
hydro power
• Fuel prices according to International
Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030
• Baseline scenario and three variations
– Regional targets for renewable energy
– Lower electricity demand
– More CO2 reduction in 2020
A balanced view on nuclear power
Future generation capacity
Generation outlook
Utilisation of biomass resources
Utilization of biomass resources
1.600
Long term potential for forestry
residues and energy crops
1.400
1.200
Long term municipal waste
potential
PJ
1.000
800
Long term biowaste potential
600
400
Long term biogas potential
200
2010
Biogas
2015
Biowaste
2020
Municipal waste
2025
2030
Forestry residues and energy crops
CO2
emissions
Marginal CO2 price
- 7 €/ton in 2020
- 60 €/ton in 2030
Marginal cost of increasing RE generation
0 – 30 €/MWh in 2020
0 - 11 €/MWh in 2030
Scenario variations
• Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy
– Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh
• 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020
– Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton
• Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %)
– Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV
(excl. cost of saving measures)
– Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020
Key findings
• The targets can be met at
reasonable costs
• Potential for more efficient
generation and consumption
• Benefits of regional
cooperation
– Interconnectors
– Electricity markets
– RE policies and projects
• Stronger targets are possible
Thermal
Wind
Hydro
Recommendations from
the stakeholder dialogue
• shared vision “A Green Valley of
Europe”
• energy stakeholder forum
• regional projects
• common interconnector strategy
• action plan for efficient and
sustainable heating
• common regional training
programme
Phase III
• Modellling tool and data for the whole region
is now available
• How to utilise this potential in the third project
phase?
• Suggestions for further analyses
– Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from
each country in the region
– Identify and evaluate concrete projects in
cooperation with stakeholders
– Expand the scope to 2050
Phase III
• Input for
- EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with
Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan
(BEMIP)
- Regional perspective on the National renewable
energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency
efforts
Input from BDF Summit
• The study could provide useful input for concretisation
of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and
security of supply
• We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse
projects”
– Grids and wind power
– Combined heat and power and energy efficiency
– Training and education
• Incorporate national policies in the study (including
nuclear) – develop a road map for the region
• Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a
technological development, e.g. solar and wave
• Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable
scenarios (no fossil fuels)