Transcript Kirit S Parikh - Bengal Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Sustainable Development and Low Carbon Growth
Strategy for India
Kirit S. Parikh
Chairman, Integrated Research and Action for Development Chairman, Expert Committee on Low Carbon Strategy for Inclusive Growth
The Background
• India’s economy needs to grow at 8 % to 10 % per year for two to three decades to meet its human development needs.
• Growth coupled with growing population puts significant stress on natural resources & environment.
• Major threat to sustainability of India’s development arises from energy use.
• Per capita consumption of energy in India is one of the lowest in the world. India consumed 530 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person of primary energy in 2007 compared to 1480 in China, 7750 in the U.S. and the world average of 1820 • 84% of the 160 million rural households, 23% of the 72 million urban households cook with biomass based solid fuels
India’s Energy Needs, Resources and Options Total Primary Energy Supply in 2007
Renewable 731Pj , 4% LNG, 427Pj , 2% Natural Gas, 1221Pj, 6% Fuel wood +
•
Animal Dung 2271Pj , 11%
.
Coal, 8343 Pj , 42% Petroleum Products, 6523Pj , 33% Lignite, 408Pj , 2%
Energy Consumption by Fuels and Forms in India (2007)
Fuel Wood + Animal Dung
,
2271Pj
,
16% Coal, 2111Pj , 14% Electricity
,
2081Pj
,
14% LNG
,
427 Pj
,
3% Natural Gas
,
1221Pj
,
8% Petroleum Products
,
6523 Pj , 45%
Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic Production and Imports for 8 percent Growth: Base scenario Fuel Oil (Mt) N Gas+ CBM (Mtoe) Coal (Mtoe) Others (Mtoe) Comm Energy 2020 259 52 511 41 Comm Energy 2030 (R) 453 93 923 82 Dom. Prod 2030 (P) 35 100 560 Imports 2030 (I) 418 363 0 Import 2030 (Percent) (I/R) 93
TPCES 1553 1553 781
• Potential for nuclear power is limited. By 2030, it can at most contribute 7 to 8 % of electrical energy.
• Bio fuels are limited by the availability of cultivable land • Solar power has substantial potential.
• The low hanging fruit is energy efficiency 0 39 0
50
India’s GHG Emissions in the Global Context
• The total GHG emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• India’s total CO2 emissions in 2007 were less than one fifth that of USA and China.
• In per capita terms India emitted 1.18 tonnes of Co2, China four times as much and US 16 times as much. • Emission intensity of India is 0.28 kg of CO2/$ of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China’s more than twice as high and USA’s also nearly twice as high.
Energy Related Cumulative CO2 Emissions
Country World India China Brazil USA MT of CO2 1990-2006 400834 15977 61360 4925 92641 MT of CO2 1850-2006 1000000 27433 99204 9457 333747 Percent 1990-2006 100 4 15 1 23 Percent 1850-2006 Europe15 Annex I 55377 237534 252148 856115 14 59 Non-Annex I 157582 281497 39 • India’s contribution since 1850 to global emissions is only 2.4 percent while that of USA is 29 percent.
• Since 1990, India’s share is 4 percent in emissions, China’s 15 percent and USA’s 23 percent.
100 2 9 1 29 22 74 25
The Structure of India’s Emissions
GHG emissions by sector • Electricity accounts for 38 percent of the GHG emissions in 2007.
• Agriculture accounts for 18 percent of the GHG emissions
CO2 Emission Distribution across Sectors in 2007.
• The electricity sector accounted for 51 per cent.
• 10 percent of the CO2 emission was from the transport sector.
• Manufacturing industries together accounted for 29 per cent.
Strategy for Low Carbon Growth
A Low Carbon Strategy
.
Determined Effort ) Aggressive Effort 8% Growth Rate 9% Growth Rate 8% Growth Rate 9% Growth Rate
Emissions in 2020 with 8 % growth rate as per 2005 intensity and Reductions in MT CO2 and per cent
Sectors Power DSM Supply side Transport Freight modal shift Passenger modal shift Vehicle fuel efficiency Emissions as per 2005 norm Determined effort MT CO 2 Percent Aggressive effort MT CO 2 Percen t 1609 476 96 85 14 17 11 6 5 3 4 2 201 145 22 24 17 13 9 5 5 4
Table Continued on the next slide….
Industry Iron & Steel Cement Oil & Gas Other Industries Buildings Commercial Other Household Energy Waste Management Miscellaneous 442 393.5
154 285 610 270 150 155 36 57.5
29 40 8 15 19 14 60 10 15 6 15 10 16 10 82 100 39 100 19 25 25 35 122 41 20 15 32 33 21 21
Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels
Growth Scenarios:2020 Higher and Lower Ends of the Range Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP) 2005 Emissions 56.21
(%) Reduction in Emission Intensity 8% growth DE 42.47
24.44% AE 36.87
34.40% 9% growth DE 42.79
23.88% AE 33.27% • Emission intensity reduction of around 24.44 % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005 .
• Emission intensity reduction of around 23.88 % with determined effort and 33.27 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.
37.51
Policy Options
Promoting Energy Efficiency Lighting o o o A compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) costs 7 to 10 times as much as IL An LED lamp consumes even less of electricity than a CFL but costs much more .
Energy Efficient Appliances o o o o Energy rating scheme.
The label - electricity consumed and energy efficiency .
Private individuals and firms can buy on Life cycle cost.
But not procurement officers of public sectors firms or government departments buy on first cost basis
Rating and Characteristics of a 1.5 ton Air-conditioner (used 4 hours a day)
Star ranking No star 1 2 3 4 5 Energy Efficiency Ratio (Min) 2.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
Consumption Per day kWh 9.45
9.04
8.32
7.7
7.17
6.71
Cost Saving Per year Rs.
0 308 851 1313 1712 2059
Present Discounted value in Rupees of saving over no star model over 5 years at discount rate.
Star rating 1 2 3 4 5 10 % 1168 3226 4977 6490 7805 15% 1032 2853 4401 5739 6902
Promoting Energy Efficiency in Industry
o Concentrating on new industries to set up energy efficient plants is an attractive option.
o Labeling for industrial equipment, such as variable speed drives, can be effective if energy prices are competitively determined.
o Trade parity prices for fuels. o Perform achieve and trade (PAT) is being introduced for industries.
It covers only some 700 large firms o The BEE is examining some 25 clusters to see how there SMEs can be incentivized to improve energy efficiency .
Electricity Supply o National Solar Mission to make Solar Electricity cost competitive to coal based electricity by 2020 or latest by 2030.
o Firms are required to bid for the feed in tariff they need and the first auction has already lowered the feed in tariff to Rs 15/ kWhr from the ceiling of Rs 15.
o State electricity regulatory commissions announced renewable portfolio obligation and the certificates can be traded, for which power exchanges provide electronic trading platforms.
Energy Conservation in Buildings o Appropriate design using natural sunlight and appropriate orientation, insulation and natural sources of cooling and heating.
o BEE in India enacted an energy conservation building code (ECBC).
Transport
o The stock of automobiles has been growing at more than 20 % in recent years and two wheelers even faster .
o Shift long distance freight movement from trucks to trains: Moving a billion tonne-km of goods by rail compared to road can save 30 Mt of diesel and save 54 Mt of Co2 .
o Improve mass transport in urban areas of quality that induces vehicle owners to travel by it o Design cities that reduce need for travel and encourage walking and cycling o Improve fuel efficiency of vehicles
Conclusion
• For sustainable development, manage resources and environment well • Improve energy use efficiency • Encourage renewable sources of energy • India can reduce by 2020 its emission intensity by 25 % compared with 2005 as was declared at Copenhagen.