Transcript Goals of Japan’s Energy and Environment Policy Goals of Japan’s Energy and Environment Policy Climate change policy should be developed and implemented so.

Goals of Japan’s Energy and
Environment Policy
Goals of Japan’s Energy and Environment Policy
Climate change policy should be developed and
implemented so as to contribute to both the environment and
economy by making the best use of technological innovation
and innovative ideas in economic circles.
Japan assists developing countries with its climate-friendly
technologies.
In the short term
Achievement of the Kyoto Target
“The Kyoto Target Achievement Plan” (2005) based on review and
assessment of the current climate change policy programme
In the medium and long term
Establishment of Low Carbon Society
on the basis of long-term outlooks for energy and CO2 emissions
through development and diffusion of innovative technologies
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Framework of Japan’s Energy Policy
Basic Principles of Japan’s Energy Policy : 3Es
(Based on the Basic Law on Energy Policy Making-*enacted in June 2002)
Security of
Energy Supply
e.g. Alternatives to oil
Harmony
with Environment
e.g. Lowering
CO2 emission
* In utilizing market mechanism, full
consideration will be given to other
two policy goals.
Economic Efficiency
e.g. Utilizing
market mechanism
Master Plan for energy supply-demand *issued in October 2003
Long-term Outlook on Energy Supply-demand
*interim report issued in October 2004
(Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, Energy Supply and Demand Subcommittee)
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Stabilization of global GHG concentrations
In order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2, carbon emissions from
the burning of fossil fuels need to be balanced with the terrestrial and ocean carbon
uptake. To balance emissions and uptake, emissions must be drastically reduced to
less than half of the current level.
The IPCC scenario for stabilizing at 550 ppm (WRE550) shows that, although
emissions need to be reduced to less than half of the current level, about one-fourth
reduction will be necessary in comparison with the future emission peak.
Emission scenarios to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration
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WRE350
14
WRE450
12
WRE550
CO2 emission (PgC/year)
WRE650
10
WRE750
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1990
2015
2040
2065
2090
2115
2140
2165
2190
2215
2240
2265
2290
(Source) IPCC (2001)
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2030 Energy Demand-Supply Structure in Japan
Energy demand will begin to drop: In the reference case, energy demand will take a
downturn in fiscal 2021, mainly due to energy conservation technologies and introduction of
efficient equipment along with industrial and socioeconomic structure change.
Energy supply structure will gradually change: The spread of distributed power
generating systems will increase demand for natural gas to increase its share. Nuclear power will
continue to secure a stable share as a power source. Oil, despite a decrease in share, will continue
to be an important source of energy that accounts for around 40% of the total energy supply.
Given progress in the introduction of new energy technologies, renewables may attain a share of
around 10%.
Domestic Primary Energy Supply (10^3 kloe)
Final Energy Consumption (10^3 kloe)
700
450
600
400
(10%)
Renewable etc.
350
(15%)
Hydro & Geo.
300
(13%)
500
(10%)
400
300
(13%)
(10%)
(17%)
(15%)
(18%)
(18%)
(17%)
200
100
(53%)
(47%)
(38%)
Nuclear
Natural Gas
(8%)
(16%)
(11%)
250
Coal
200
LPG
150
Oil (exc. LPG)
100
(13%)
(15%)
(17%)
(13%)
(13%)
(15%)
(12%)
Freight
Passenger
Commercial
Residential
Industry
(50%)
(47%)
(44%)
1990
2000
2030
50
0
0
1990
2000
2030
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Long-term Outlook for CO2 emission
Technologies and nuclear energy are key for reducing CO2 emission
in growing economy
• Line 1: As R&D affords considerable potential for energy conservation, CO2 emissions may
begin to fall around 2020 in spite of steady economic growth.
• Line 2: Introduction of additional nuclear plants also has enormous impact.
• Line 3: Further introduction of advanced technologies has enormous impact which would reduce
CO2 level in 2030 well below 1990 level.
• Line 4: GOJ pursues Kyoto Protocol target with additional measures.
【Energy-Related CO2 Emissions】
340
330
324
317
320
Line1
311
310
Mt-C
300
Line4
290
280
Line2
300
286
270
260
250
240
1990
Line1: Reference case
– 10 additional nuclear plants expected.
Line2: Nuclear-high case
– 17 additional nuclear plants expected
Line3: Additional R&D case
Line4: Additional measures case for Kyoto Target
2000
2010
FY
Line3
2020
258
2030
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Japan’s Energy Efficiency
- Japan has been the most successful in decoupling energy demand from
economic growth. Japan’s level of energy efficiency has been better than
other developed countries.
- Accordingly, marginal abatement cost of Japan is higher.
- The manufacturing industry has played a key role for drastic energy
efficiency improvement during 1970s and 1980s.
Fig: Energy consumption per GDP
in EU15, US and Japan
Fig: Marginal cost calculation for each
country to achieve its Kyoto target
Fig: Energy consumption per production of
the manufacturing industry in Japan
TOE/1,000 US $ (1995 price)
0.5
1973
1990
2002
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.09
0.1
1074
110
966
1000
Marginal abatement cost
(US$/tC)
0.4
1973=100
1200
100
90
800
80
Improvement of 47%
600
400
200
70
about 400
410
60
about 200
76
50
about 300
97
20
0
EU15
U.S.A.
Japan
Japan
EU
(Source) IPCC (2001)
(Source) IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries
40
1973
0
1987
fiscal y ear
2001
US
(Source) IEEJ-EDMC, Handbook of energy &
economic statistics in Japan
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Key for Success: New Technologies (1)
- Innovative technologies are necessary for sustainable development.
-The Government of Japan has put emphasis on energy-related R&D with a
view to reducing emissions not only domestically but also globally.
Fig: Importance of innovative technologies
in CO2 emission reduction
Fig: Energy-related R&D investment
by government
1000
Renewable energy
869
800
766
712
Energy conservation
M$
600
400
343
200
GAP
80
74
84
42
0
18
9
1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000
Japan
(Source) Battelle (2000)
US
Germany
Italy
UK
(Source) IEA (2002)
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Key for Success: New Technologies (2)
• Energy conservation technologies
- Light-emitting diode (Lights for the 21st Century)
Low energy consumption (10% of incandescent lighting)
Long life (10 times fluorescent lighting)
- Saving of stand-by electricity consumption
- High performance boiler & laser
17% improvement of thermal efficiency
Fig: Total worldwide installations of
photovoltaic power system
Others
201.6 MW
German
277.3 MW
• Renewable energy technologies
- Photovoltaic power generation
GOJ has been concentrated on supporting R&D program
to contribute to global dissemination of PV.
- Biomass
• Fuel cell
Japan
US
German
Others
World
1327.7
MW
(2002)
US
212.2MW
Japan
636.8 MW
(Source) IEA PVPS
Progress of CO2 Aquifer Sequestration Project
- 5 million vehicles by 2020 in Japan.
• Promotion of nuclear power
• Carbon sequestration technologies
Separation/Capture
- Clean coal technologies, etc
Injection
Injection
Large scale
Emission source
Onshore
aquifer
CO2２
ＣＯ
• Clean technologies of fossil fuel
Transport
Offshore
aquifer
CO2
２
ＣＯ
CO2
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Key for Success: Efficiency Improvement (1)
-Energy efficiency is a key for striking a balance between environment
and economy.
-The “Top Runner Program” was introduced in 1998 as energy
conservation standards for home/office appliances and fuel efficiency
standards for automotives.
Fig. Example of Top Runner Program
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Efficiency
(km/l)
(km/l)
Table: Examples of covered equipment
(18 equipments are covered in total.)
Top Runner
Program
(Stricter energy
conservation
standard)
Conventional
energy
conservation
standard
Passenger vehicles
(Gasoline and LP gas)
Passenger vehicles (diesel)
Air conditioners (cooling & heating)
TV sets
Video cassette recorders
Fluorescent lights
Copying machines
Computers
Magnetic disc units
Electric refrigerators / freezers
Gas cooking appliances
Vending machines
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Key for Success: Efficiency Improvement (2)
-The “Top Runner Program” has
-stimulated competition and innovation in the market,
-diffused existing technologies, and
-enhanced industrial competitiveness
-It created “win-win” situation and virtuous cycle.
Fig: Energy efficiency of refrigerator
651.3
941.6
331.5
Overall electricity
consumption per
refrigerator (kWh)
Annual electricity
consumption
per volume (kWh/L)
Internal cubic
volume (L)
Fig. Average fuel consumption for gasoline
passenger vehicles, and Top Runner ratio
100%
14.6
14.0
80%
69.4%
13.5
12.9
50.9%
13.0
12.4
34.0%
12.0
20%
0%
11.0
1997
1981
1991
2001
(Source) JEMA (2002)
14.0
13.2
60%
40%
km/L
15.0
Ratio
TRTRRatio
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
AverageFuel
FuelConsumption
Consumption for
Vehicles
Average
forGasoline
GasolinePassenger
Passenger
Vehicles
*The target is 23% improvement of efficiency in 2010.(Base year is 1995.)
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Key for Success: Efficiency Improvement (3)
-As for industry sector, incentive for better competitiveness needs to be
utilized.
-They know their own technologies and facilities best.
-Best practices and best available technologies need to be globally shared.
Sectoral approach is effective for this purpose and can make technology
transfer easier.
Steel industry
(Energy intensities in integrated steel plant)
Thermal power sector; thermal efficiency
(Electricity output per energy input)
160
120
140
100
120
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Japan
North
Europe
UK
France
Germany
US
Japan
China
Korea
EU
(Source): ECOFYS(2004), etc
140
Chemical industry
(CO2 emission intensities of ethylene production)
US
China
(Large)
China
(Source): Korea Iron & Steel Association , etc
Cement
(Energy intensities of clinker)
200
120
180
160
100
140
120
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Japan
Europe
US
World
(Source): SRI Chemical Economic Handbook etc
Japan
West
Europe
Korea
South
America
China
US
(Source): Battelle
Russia
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