Transcript Generation Technologies in a Carbon-constrained World The Power Conference ‘06 Houston June 29, 2006 Steve Specker President & CEO.

Generation Technologies in
a Carbon-constrained World
The Power Conference ‘06
Houston
June 29, 2006
Steve Specker
President & CEO
Objective
Provide an objective and factual
framework for discussing generation
technologies and investment decisions
in a carbon-constrained world
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
Framework Overview
• Levelized cost of electricity
– Standard EPRI methodology
– 2004 costs and $’s
• Two key uncertainties
– Future “cost” of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
• Two technology portfolios
– 2010 time-period
– 2020 time-period
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Pulverized Coal in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/o cap
60
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
4
40
50
Natural Gas Combined Cycle in
2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
NGCC@$8
70
NGCC@$6
60
50
NGCC@$4
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
5
40
50
Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
$6/mmbtu will be used as
floor price for natural gas
90
80
70
NGCC@$6
60
PC w/o cap
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
6
40
50
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle in 2010
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
70
NGCC@$6
60
PC w/o cap
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
7
40
50
Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
110
Wind@20%CF
100
90
80
Wind@29%CF
70
60
Wind@42%CF
50
40
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
8
40
50
U.S. Wind Plant Capacity Factors, 2004
Capacity Factor, %
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sites Ranked by Increasing Capacity Factors
Source: EIA; EPRI Program 67 Newsletter, Energy Markets and Generation
Response – Update on New Power Plants, September 2005
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Wind Generation in 2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
110
100
90
80
Wind@29%CF
70
60
50
40
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
10
40
50
Non-CO2 Emitting Technologies in
2010 Time Period
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
Wind
70
Biomass
60
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
11
40
50
Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
Wind@29% CF
70
NGCC@$6
Biomass
60
PC w/o cap
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
12
40
50
What’s Possible
in 2020
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13
Pulverized Coal w/o Capture
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
PC w/o cap 2010
70
60
PC w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
14
40
50
IGCC w/o Capture
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC w/o cap 2010
70
60
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
15
40
50
PC with capture/transport/storage
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s 2020
60
PC w/o cap 2020
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
16
40
50
IGCC with capture/transport/storage
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
70
60
IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
17
40
50
Comparison of IGCC and PC
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
IGCC, w/o cap 2020
70
PC w/cap/t/s 2020
PC w/o cap 2020
60
IGCC w/cap/t/s 2020
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
18
40
50
Comparison of IGCC and PC (2020)
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
Reducing
Cost of PC CO2 capture is a key technology challenge
90
80
IGCC w/o cap
70
PC with capture
60
Cost Gap
PC w/o cap
IGCC w/cap
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
19
40
50
Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
NGCC@$6 (2010)
70
60
NGCC@$6 (2020)
50
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
20
40
50
Wind Generation
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
Wind@29% CF in 2010
70
60
50
Wind@29% CF in 2020
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
21
40
50
Biomass
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
Biomass 2010
60
50
Biomass 2020
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
22
40
50
Comparative Costs in 2020
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s
NGCC@$6
60
50
IGCC w/cap/t/s
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
23
40
50
Comparative Costs in 2010
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
Wind@29% CF
70
NGCC@$6
Biomass
60
PC w/o cap
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
24
40
50
What’s Possible: Comparative Costs in 2020
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
An Extraordinary Opportunity
to Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s
NGCC@$6
60
50
IGCC w/cap/t/s
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
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20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
25
40
50
Closing Thoughts
• Four key uncertainties impacting near-term decisions on
new generation:
– Future cost of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
– Spent nuclear fuel storage
– CO2 capture and storage
• Extraordinary opportunity to develop and demonstrate a
very low emissions portfolio of generation technologies for
operation by 2020.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
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