Transcript Slide 1

Wind Energy Update
Larry Flowers
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
November 30, 2007
Salt Lake City, UT
Capacity & Cost Trends
100
90
80
70
12000
10000
8000
60
50
40
30
6000
4000
20
10
0
1980
2000
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
*Year 2000 dollars
Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements
Capacity (MW)
Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)
Cost of Energy and Cumulative Domestic Capacity
U.S Lagging Other Countries for
Wind As a Percentage of Electricity Consumption
Installed Wind Capacities
(‘99 – Sept 07)
Drivers for Wind Power
• Declining Wind Costs
• Fuel Price Uncertainty
• Federal and State
Policies
• Economic Development
• Public Support
• Green Power
• Energy Security
• Carbon Risk
16
16
14
14
Daily price history of 1st-nearby
NYMEX natural gas futures contract
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
NYMEX
natural gas
futures strip
from 07/21/2006
4
2
4
2
Source: LBNL
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
0
6
Nominal $/MMBtu (Henry Hub)
Nominal $/MMBtu (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas – Historic Prices
Nationally, Wind Has Been Competitive
with Wholesale Power Prices in Recent Years
In 2006, Wind Projects Built Since 1997 Were
Competitive with Wholesale Power Prices in Most Regions
Wind Cost of Energy
COE (¢/kWh [constant 2006 $])
14
12
10
Low wind speed sites
8
6
4
Natural Gas (fuel only)
New Coal
2007: New Wind
2006: New Wind
High wind
speed sites
2
Depreciated Coal
Depreciated Wind
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
CO2 prices significantly
increase the cost of coal
Levelized Cost of Electricity (2010) vs. CO2 Price
140
130
2006$/MWh
120
Coal PC
Coal IGCC
Coal IGCC w/CCS
Gas CC
Nuclear
Wind Class 6
Wind Class 4
Wind Offshore Class 6
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Carbon Price ($/ton CO2)
Source: UCS/Black & Veatch
Economic Development Impacts
• Land Lease Payments: 2-3% of gross
revenue $2500-4000/MW/year
• Local property tax revenue: ranges widely $300K-1700K/yr per 100MW
• 100-200 jobs/100MW during construction
• 6-10 permanent O&M jobs per 100 MW
• Local construction and service industry:
concrete, towers usually done locally
Environmental Benefits
•
•
•
•
•
No SOx or NOx
No particulates
No mercury
No CO2
No water
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
Energy-Water Nexus
Key Issues for Wind Power
• Policy Uncertainty
• Siting and Permitting: avian,
noise, visual, federal land
• Transmission: FERC rules,
access, new lines
• Operational impacts:
intermittency, ancillary
services, allocation of costs
• Accounting for non-monetary
value: green power, no fuel
price risk, reduced emissions
Integrating Wind into Power Systems
A New Vision
For Wind Energy in the U.S.
State of the Union Address
“…We will invest more in …
revolutionary and…wind
technologies”
Advanced Energy Initiative
“Areas with good wind resources have the
potential to supply up to 20% of the
electricity consumption of the United States.”
Levelized Cost of Energy, $/MWh
140
Onshore
120
100
Offshore
Class 7
Class 7
Class 6
Class 6
Class 5
Class 5
Class 4
Class 4
Class 3
Class 3
10% Available
Transmission
80
60
40
20
0
-
200
400
600
Quantity Available, GW
2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs
800
1,000
Utah – Economic Impacts
From the 20% Vision
(2,449 MW new Utah development)
Wind energy’s economic “ripple effect”
Direct Impacts
Payments to Landowners:
• $6.53 million/year
Local Property Tax Revenue:
• $27.24 million/year
Construction Phase:
• 3,883 new jobs
• $461.8 M to local economies
Operational Phase:
• 616 new long-term jobs
• $52.0 M/yr to local economies
Indirect &
Induced Impacts
Construction Phase:
• 3,292 new jobs
• $292.2 M to local
economies
Operational Phase:
• 497 local jobs
• $46.1 M/yr to local
economies
Totals
(construction + 20yrs)
Total economic benefit
= $2.72 billion
New local jobs during
construction = 7,175
New local long-term
jobs = 1,113
Construction Phase = 1-2 years
Operational Phase = 20+ years
Fuel Savings From Wind
4.5E+10
3.5E+10
Electricity Sector
Fuel Usage
3.0E+10
Gas Fuel Savings
Coal Fuel Savings
2.5E+10
Gas Fuel Usage
(20%wind)
Coal Fuel Usage
(20%wind)
2.0E+10
1.5E+10
1.0E+10
5.0E+09
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20
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20
30
20
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06
20
20
20
00
02
0.0E+00
20
MMBtu
4.0E+10
Reduction in National Gas
Consumption in 2030 (%)
Natural Gas Price Reduction
in 2030 (2006$/MMBtu)
Present Value Benefits
(billion 2006$)
Levelized Benefit of
Wind ($/MWh)
11%
0.6 -1.1- 1.5
86 - 150 - 214
16.6 - 29 - 41.6
Cumulative Carbon Savings
2500
MMTCE
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Cumulative
Carbon Savings
(2007-2050, MMTCE)
Present Value Benefits
(billion 2006$)
Levelized Benefit of Wind
($/MWh-wind)
4,182 MMTCE
$ 50 - $145
$ 9.7/MWh - $ 28.2/MWh
2030
Results: Costs & Benefits
Incremental direct cost to society
$43 billion
Reductions in emissions of greenhouse 825 M tons (2030)
gasses and other atmospheric pollutants $98 billion
Reductions in water consumption
8% total electric
17% in 2030
Jobs created and other economic
140,000 direct
benefits
$450 billion total
Reductions in natural gas use and price 11%
pressure
$150 billion
Net Benefits: $205B + Water savings
Conclusions
• 20% wind energy penetration is possible
• 20% penetration is not going to happen under business
as usual scenario
• Policy choices will have a large impact on assessing the
timing and rate of achieving a 20% goal
• Key Issues: market transformation, transmission, project
diversity, technology development, policy, public
acceptance
• 20% Vision action plan: December 2007
Source: AWEA 20% Vision
Carpe Ventem
www.windpoweringamerica.gov