Transcript No Slide Title

1st Capacity Building Workshop on
Transferring EU Legislation on Climate Change &
Developing Low Carbon Policies
May 24th, 2013 - Graz, Austria
Developing low carbon policies in the energy
sector: timelines, drivers, constraints
Dimitris Lalas
Global emission rates – impervious to crises
1990-99 ca 1.0%/yr
2000-12 ca 3.1%/yr
Le Quere et al. , 2012
The result: Atmospheric concentrations
in 1750 – 278ppm, 40% increase
CDIAC data
Who contributes: Large emitter Countries
Global Carbon Project, 2012
Who contributes: Developed and Developing
Peters et al. , 2012
Who is responsible: Various approaches
Global Carbon Project, 2012
Future projections: RCP Scenarios
4,1-6,1oC
Δ. Π. Λάλας
e-mail: [email protected]
1,3-1,9οC
Peters et al. 2012
IPCC AR4/Α1Β: Changes in temperature and rainfall
World reduction effort required
Share of electricity as % of final energy demand
Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)
Changes in temperature distributions
Hansen, 2012
Current EU Policy Framework - 2020
EU GHG emissions reduction target of 20% relative to 1990 (with specific
targets for each MS for non-ETS emissions for a total 10% reduction relative to
2005 – Effort Sharing Directive)
A 20% target of RES in the energy consumed (specific targets per MS –
Directive 2009/28/EC) and a 10% target for energy for transport (for all MS)
to be provided by RES plus a 6% decarbonization target of transport fuels.
A 20% savings in energy consumed compared to projections (done in 2007)
to be assisted by Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EC) and the Ecodesign,
the Energy Labeling & the Energy Performance of Buildings Directives.
Also supported by:
• Strategic Energy Technology plan (SET-plan)
• Energy 2020 Strategy
• Proposed revision of energy products and electricity taxation
National RES & Energy Conservation Targets
2005
2020
Austria
23.3%
34%
Greece
6.9%
18%
Hungary
4.3%
13%
Italy
5.2%
17%
Slovenia
16%
25%
Directive 2009/28/EC
(% on gross final energy
consumption)
Directive 2006/32/EC
9% reduction by 2016
Directive 2009/28/EC
20% reduction by 2020
(not to exceed 1074Mtoe of final energy)
NREAPs and NEEAPs
Greek NREAP: Input Data
•
•
•
•
•
Macroeconomic data for the national economy
International fuel prices
Emission allowance prices
Technical-economical data of various technologies
(costs, efficiency, life-cycle)
Future commissioning and decommissioning of power plants
Greek NREAP: Macro-economic and demographic data
Demographic Indexes
Population (000)
Annual growth rate
Economic Indexes (million Euro, 2005 prices)
GDP (market prices)
Annual growth rate
Consumption Expenditure
Annual growth rate
GDP per capita (Euro per capita)
Added Value (million Euro, 2005 prices)
Annual growth rate
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11316.0
0.1%
11359.6
0.0%
11400.5
-0.2%
11438.4
-0.2%
11473.2
-0.1%
11504.9
0.0%
204825
-4.0%
147375
-4.0%
18101
174425
199500
-2.6%
141922
-3.7%
17562
171000
201694
1.1%
143057
0.8%
17692
172594
205930
2.1%
147063
2.8%
18003
175730
210254
2.1%
150739
2.5%
18326
178454
215931
2.7%
154508
2.5%
18769
182931
-9.0%
-2.0%
0.9%
1.8%
1.6%
2.5%
2015
2016
Demographic Indexes
Population (000)
11504
11533
Annual growth rate
0.0%
-0.3%
Economic Indexes (million Euro, 2005 prices)
GDP (market prices)
215931
221545
Annual growth rate
2.7%
2.6%
Consumption Expenditure
154508
158525
Annual growth rate
2.5%
2.6%
GDP per capita (Euro per
18769
19209
capita)
Added Value (million
182931
187687
Euro, 2005 prices)
Annual growth rate
2.5%
2.6%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
2030
11559
-0.2%
11581
-0.1%
11601
-0.1%
11618
-0.2%
11674
-0.2%
11699
-0.4%
227306
2.6%
162647
2.6%
19665
232988
2.5%
166713
2.5%
20117
238813
2.5%
170881
2.5%
20585
245738
2.9%
175836
2.9%
21151
273178
2.2%
195471
2.2%
23400
305754
1.5%
210576
1.5%
26135
192567
197381
202316
208183
231429
249314
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.9%
2.2%
1.5%
NREAP: Scenarios Definitions
1. Reference Scenario
•
The useful energy demand arises from the macro-economic data of paragraph 1.1.
• The international fuel prices are presented in paragraph 1.2.
•
The commissioning and decommissioning of power plants in the interconnected system are
presented in paragraph 1.4.
•
No additional measures referring to RES and Energy Saving promotion are considered.
2. Compliance Scenario
• The useful energy demand arises from the macro-economic data of paragraph 1.1.
• The international fuel prices are presented in paragraph 1.2.
• The commissioning and decommissioning of power plants in the interconnected system
are presented in paragraph 1.4.
• Biomass co-combustion (by 5% mass) in the Florina 1 power plant
• Implementation of the measures foreseen in the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan
and achievement of the respective energy saving
• Implementation of the measures for meeting the RES targets
3. Accelerated economic recovery scenario
• Similarly to the Compliance Scenario but with higher growth rates after 2014
Model Description: MARKAL, WASP, COST, ENPEP
TIMES-MARKAL (MARKet Allocation) Model of ΙΕΑ
It is an optimization model for the development of an energy system under the
commitment of achieving the different energy and environmental targets set and
considering the cost minimization.

Optimization model of the energy system

Demand driven model: the defined is defined externally and refers to input data

Includes many technologies

Simulates both available energy and energy consumption

Is used for medium/long-termed analyses
Other Models Utilized
ENPEP Balance model matching demand with supply
WASP Energy mix model to specify types & size of power plants to meet demand (IAEA)
COST Simulates the daily operation of system calculating discarded RES (CRES)
Greek NREAP: Power generation sector – compliance scenario
net electricity generation
90000
80000
70000
MWh
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2010
lignite
petroleum
2015
natural gas
2020
biomass/biogas
2025
hydro
Wind
2030
PV
geothermal
Installed capacity (ΜW)
Lignite
Petroleum
Natural gas
Biomass/biogas
Hydro
Wind
PV
Solar thermal
Geothermal
Total
Electricity from RES
% RES share in electricity generation
7.84
13%
16.97
28%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
4826
2146
3456
60
3237
1327
184
0
0
15236
3992
1381
5909
120
3615
4303
1270
30
20
20640
3362
1378
7312
250
4531
7500
2200
250
120
26903
2295
1378
8412
370
4531
8750
3167
380
340
29623
2295
1325
9259
500
4531
10000
3833
510
400
32653
27.27
40%
33.33
44%
37.48
47%
Greek NREAP: Final energy consumption – compliance scenario
final energy consumption
final energy consumption
30000
30000
25000
25000
20000
20000
ktoe
ktoe
15000
10000
15000
10000
5000
0
5000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
solid fuels
petroleum
natural gas
electricity
biomass/biofuels
thermal energy
solar
geothermal
heat pumps
Gross energy consumption for the RE
Directive (ktoe)
Gross energy consumption
% RES in G.E.C.
2010
2015
2020
agriculture
industry
transport
2025
2030
residential
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
22418
9%
22251
15%
24114
20%
25265
24%
26308
26%
tertiary
Greek NREAP: Technologies investment costs – compliance scen.
3500
3000
biomass/biogas
geothermal
million Euro (2005)
2500
wind
Solar Termal
2000
PV
pumped hydro
small hydro
1500
big hydro
petroleum
1000
natural gas
lignite
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NEEAP: Measures adopted by MSs NEEAPs
NEEAP: Importance of measures adopted by MSs
NEEAP: Measures adopted by MSs’ - Effectiveness
Energy Efficiency
Watch 2013
NEEAP: Measures adopted by MSs - Effectiveness
Energy Efficiency Watch 2013
Road Maps 2050 EU
A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in
2050 (http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=)
Reduce EU GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050 (on 1990 revels).
Approx. € 270 billion p.a. over 40 years (1.5% of EU GDP p.a. above 2009 investment levels)
Savings between € 175–320 billion p.a. (not incl. not including savings on social costs).
Political and social change drivers not covered in detail
Notes importance of policy innovation, public education and behaviour change.
Energy Roadmap 2050
Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe
Roadmap to a single European Transport Area – Towards a
competitve and resource efficient transport system
Roadmaps 2050 - countries
UK: Carbon Plan
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/tackling/carbon_plan/carbon_plan.aspx
Reduce UK GHG emissions by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (on 1990 levels)
Total net present cost over lifetime of policies in past carbon budget periods approx £
9billion. Average cost 0.4% of UK GDP p.a. in period 2008–22 and 0.6% of UK GDP per year
over 2023–27
Importance of UK Government, industry and citizens ‘pulling in the same direction in order to
achieve
low carbon transition.
Australia: Clean Energy Future
http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/ourplan/
Reduce Australian GHG emissions by 5% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (on 2000 levels)
Carbon price and related measures to raise approx. AUD$ 25.5 billion in the period 2011–15.
Further $3.9 billion public funds to augment
Carbon price as central driver of change.
Strong emphasis on limited impact of policy measures on Australian economy and lifestyles
Roadmaps 2050 - countries
Denmark: Our Future Energy
http://ens.netboghandel.dk/publikationer/publikationsdetaljeraspx?PId=5308989e-ea64-436b-83464e29c8a84d62
100% renewable energy in all Danish energy supply by 2050
Cost to 2020 approx.DKK 5.6 billion (US$952million). Immediate net costs of < 0.25% GDP in
2020. Average additional costs to Danish households approx. DKK 1,700 (US$ 289) in 2020
Assumes strong ongoing role for government in
encouraging innovation and community education.
State of California: Scoping Plan & Clean Energy Future Plan
http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/scopingplandocument.htm
http://www.cacleanenergyfuture.org/
Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% of 1990 levels by 2050; 33% of
electricity from renewable energy by 2020
Ongoing costs approx. US$36 million p.a.
Benefits by 2020 (compared to BAU) include increases in economic production of US$33 billion
and overall gross state product of US$7 billion
Active public participation essential.
Emphasis on role for market forces and growing environmental awareness to shift individual
choices and attitudes.
Targeted public outreach, marketing and education programs.
Roadmaps 2050 - countries
Germany: Energy Concept
http://www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/energiekonzept_bundesregierung
_en.pdf
Reduce German GHG emissions by 40% by 2020 and at least 80% by 2050 (on 1990
levels)
Additional investment €20 billion p.a., offset by energy cost savings
Importance of public understanding and support for transition. Emphasises importance
of accessible information, transparent decision making and opportunities for public
dialogue.
Greece: Roadmap 2050
http://www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/energiekonzept_bundesregierung_en.pdf
Reduce German GHG emissions by 40% by 2020 and at least 80% by 2050 (on 1990
levels)
Additional investment €20 billion p.a., offset by energy cost savings
Importance of public understanding and support for transition. Emphasises importance
of accessible information, transparent decision making and opportunities for public
dialogue.
“Developing” Countries Plans – 2020 horizon
India: National Action Plan & Low Carbon Growth Report
http://pmindia.nic.in/Pg01-52.pdf
http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/Inter_Exp.pdf
Reduce India’s emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% by 2020 (on 2005 levels)
People’s Republic of China: 12th Five-Year Plan & Climate Change White
Paper
http://cbi.typepad.com/china_direct/2011/05/chinas-twelfth-fivenew-plan-the-fullenglish-version.html
http://www.gov.cn/english/official/2011-11/22/content_2000272.htm
Reduce Chinese CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 (on 2005 levels)
Total investment (public and private) in ‘new energy’ of approx RMB5 trillion (US$760 billion)
over next 10 years
South Korea: Green Growth Strategy
http://www.greengrowth.go.kr/english/en-main/index.do/
Reduce Korean GHG emissions by 30% below projected 2020 levels (equivalent to 4% reduction
on 2005 levels)
Total investment announced as part of Five-Year Plan (2009–13) US$83.6 billion
EU Energy Roadmap 2050: Current Policy Scenarios
• Reference scenario. The Reference scenario includes current
trends and long-term projections on economic development (gross
domestic product (GDP) growth 1.7% pa). The scenario includes
policies adopted by March 2010, including the 2020 targets for RES
share and GHG reductions as well as the Emissions Trading Scheme
(ETS) Directive. For the analysis, several sensitivities with lower and
higher GDP growth rates and lower and higher energy import prices
were analysed.
• Current Policy Initiatives (CPI). This scenario updates measures
adopted, e.g. after the Fukushima events following the natural
disasters in Japan, and being proposed as in the Energy 2020
strategy; the scenario also includes proposed actions concerning
the "Energy Efficiency Plan" and the new "Energy Taxation
Directive".
EU Energy Roadmap 2050 : Decarbonization Scenarios
High Energy Efficiency. Political commitment to very high energy savings; it includes
e.g. more stringent minimum requirements for appliances and new buildings; High
renovation rates of existing buildings; establishment of energy savings obligations on
energy utilities. This leads to a decrease in energy demand of 41% by 2050 as
compared to the peaks in 2005-2006.
Diversified supply technologies. No technology is preferred; all energy sources can
compete on a market basis with no specific support measures. Decarbonisation is driven
by carbon pricing assuming public acceptance of both nuclear and Carbon Capture &
Storage (CCS).
High Renewable energy sources (RES). Strong support measures for RES leading
to a very high share of RES in gross final energy consumption (75% in 2050) and a
share of RES in electricity consumption reaching 97%.
Delayed CCS. Similar to Diversified supply technologies scenario but assuming that
CCS is delayed, leading to higher shares for nuclear energy with decarbonisation driven
by carbon prices rather than technology push.
Low nuclear. Similar to Diversified supply technologies scenario but assuming that no
new nuclear (besides reactors currently under construction) is being built resulting in a
higher penetration of CCS (around 32% in power generation).
Energy savings potential EU
EU Energy Efficiency Ecofys 2013
EC Communication March 2011:
A Cost-efficient Road Map towards 2050
100%
80% reduction is
possible with internal
actions
 with existing technology, 80% Power Sector
 with changes in energy
use thru price policies
 all sectors have to
contribute
60%
100%
80%
Current policy
Residential & Tertiary
60%
Industry
Cost efficient trajectory:
-25% in 2020
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040
40%
40%
Transport
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
1990
0%
2050
32
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Nordics Roadmap 2050
-70%
-85% +15%
Nordic Energy Research Report: Pathways to a carbon neutral energy future, 2013
Nordics Roadmap 2050
Nordic Energy Research Report: Pathways to a carbon neutral energy future, 2013
Nordics Roadmap 2050
Nordic electricity generation needs to be fully decarbonised by 2050.
Wind generation, today some 3% of Nordic electricity generation,
needs to grow particularly quickly and alone to account for some 25%
of electricity generation in 2050.
This will increase the need for flexible generation capacity, grid
interconnections, demand response and electricity storage.
Total investments required in the power sector are equal to some
0.7% of cumulative GDP over the period.
Nordics Roadmap 2050
To achieve the necessary 60% reduction in direct industry
emissions (from 2010 levels), all sectors must contribute by taking
up energy efficiency measures and CCS technologies.
At present, Nordic industry is characterised by a high share of energyintensive
Industries.
All countries except Denmark use more energy per unit of GDP than the
OECD average. Collectively, industry will need to cut the share of fossil fuel
in its energy use in half, i.e. to below 20%.
Even combined with very aggressive action to increase energy efficiency,
this is not enough to reduce emissons to the extent necessary.
Consequently, 50% of cement plants, and at least 30% of iron and steel
and chemical industries, need to be equipped with CCS in 2050. To make
this scenario possible, current uncertainty over national positions on CCS
must be resolved.
Nordics Roadmap 2050
Transport requires the most dramatic emissions slash, from 80
million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) in 2010 to just 10 MtCO2
in 2050.
This will require limiting growth in transport demand, substantial reductions in
technology costs, securing a sustainable biofuel supply and intelligent modal
shifts. Improved fuel economy provides the majority of transport emissions
reduction through 2030, with biofuels and electric vehicles becoming more
important in the longer term.
By 2050, average fuel consumption of new cars must decrease to about 3 litres
per 100 kilometres (L/100km), down from 7 L/100km in 2010.
Electric vehicles including plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel-cell electric vehicles
must reach 30% of total sales in 2030 and 90% in 2050.
Long-haul road freight, aviation and shipping remain dependent on highenergy-density liquid fuels even in 2050, resulting in an increased demand for
biofuels.
Nordics Roadmap 2050
Direct CO2 emissions in the building sector are relatively low, but
emissions associated with the energy used in buildings must be
reduced from 50 MtCO2 in 2010 to approximately 5 MtCO2 in 2050.
In addition to decarbonising electricity supply, several reduction options exist in
the buildings sector itself. Widespread retrofits of older building stock will be
needed to achieve the necessary energy efficiency improvements.
In the short term, policies should focus on improving existing building shell
performance and on requiring best available technologies (BATs) for space
heating.
In the longer term, more advanced building technologies, urban planning, and
intelligent systems that empower consumers and encourage behaviour change
become the higher priority.
Greek Roadmap to 2050
•
•
•
A current policies (CP) scenario assuming conservative implementation of
energy and environmental policies with a moderate reduction of GHG
emissions and penetration of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
technologies.
A RES Maximization (RESM) scenario with electricity generation at almost
100 % to achieve GHG reduction of GHG by 60% and 70% in 2050 from
2005 levels.
An Environmental Measures and Cost Minimization scenario (EMCM),
defining the least cost solution for reducing GHG emissions by 60% and
70% through large-scale Renewables penetration.
Greek Roadmap to 2050
Greek Roadmap to 2050
(L. Moldechai, 2009)
Greek Roadmap to 2050
EU Roadmap: On the way to 2050
Range of fuel shares in primary energy consumption as % wrt 2005 (yellow diamonds)
Problems in the Horizon: Eurelectric warning 2013
Power Choices Reloaded Scenario
• Like EC All Options scenario
• Meets all 2020 targets, ener effic in 2025
• ETS carbon prices and after 2020 uniform price to all
• Measures to overcome non-economic barriers
• Key grid and infrastructure as planned
Reference scenario cost
14.5% projected GDP
Eurelectric Report May2013
Thank you for your attention
Dimitri Lalas
[email protected]