Transcript Climate Change: Goals and Wedges Joan Rohlfs MWCOG November 28, 2007 CCSC Work Plan re Goals  Prepare regional inventory of greenhouse gases (2020, 2030)  Establish a regional.

Climate Change:
Goals and Wedges
Joan Rohlfs
MWCOG
November 28, 2007
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CCSC Work Plan re Goals

Prepare regional inventory of greenhouse
gases (2020, 2030)

Establish a regional greenhouse gas
reduction goal or target based on an
appropriate baseline by March-April 2008


Recommend 2005 for baseline
Potential target years: 2020, 2030, 2050
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Short Term & Long Term Goals

short term goals because they’re doable

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Analyze strategies using existing technology
Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, anticipate
long term goals: scientists say they’re
needed to stabilize climate


Spur investment in new technology
Incentive for technological innovation
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Some Long Range Reduction
Goals

Cool Counties

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80% below current levels by 2050
States

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California: 80% below 1990 by 2050
NJ:
80% below 2006 by 2050
Illinois: 60% below 1990 by 2050
NM:
75% below 2000 by 2050
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Long Range: Why 2050?





IPPC scientists predict CO2 levels by 2050
will be at 500-550 ppm
1-3o C
increase in surface temperatures
Current concentration is estimated 380 ppm
CO2 is increasing at 2.5 ppm/yr
Need to stabilize CO2 emissions at 450-550
ppm
If we wait for 20-30 years, will be too late
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Economics of Taking Action


Costs & risks of not acting = losing 5-20% of
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each
year
Cost of action can be limited to 1% of global
GDP each year
Source: Sir Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate
Change, 2007. The review was requested by the
Chancellor of the Exchequer, UK, in 2005 and was
presented to the Prime Minister by 2007.
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Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends &
Temperature-GHG Relationship

379 ppm CO2 in 2005, up
from 280 ppm in 1800

Since 1970s, 1.7 ppm/yr
added via emissions

Since 2000, 2.5 ppm/yr
has been added
Source: World Resource Institute
Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations (PPMv)
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Wedges Concept
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate
Problem for the next 50 Years with Current
Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow,
Science, August 13, 2004.
Princeton Environmental Institute
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Historical Emissions
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
8
0
1950
Historical
emissions
2000
2050
2100
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The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
Stabilization
Triangle
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Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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The Stabilization Triangle
16
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
Interim Goal
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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Two futures

Allow emissions to double for the next 50
years (Business As Usual)


Predicted to lead to significant global warming by end
of century
Keep emissions at current levels for the next
50 years


Keeping emissions flat will require cutting projected
carbon emissions by 8 billion tons per year
Savings is called “stabilization triangle”
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Business As Usual

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Annual GHG emissions will grow to 14 billion
tons per year by 2055
Assume need to cut emissions in half by 7
billion tons
Achieving necessary reductions will require a
combination of strategies
Gt/yr is a Giga tonne/year or a billion tonnes/yr
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Stabilization Wedges
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
8
Historical
emissions
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
16 GtC/y
Fuel Switching
(1)
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
2007
8 GtC/y
2057
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil
Storage (2)
Nuclear Fission (1)
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Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA
Efficiency
Produce today’s electric capacity
with double today’s efficiency
Double the fuel efficiency of the
world’s cars or halve miles traveled
Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today
There are about
600 million cars
today, with 2 billion
projected for 2055
Use best efficiency practices in
all residential and commercial
buildings
E, T, H / $
Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs
with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
Sector s affected:
E = Electricity, T =Transport,
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
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Fuel Switching
Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants
for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).
A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal
to that used for all purposes today
E, H / $
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Carbon Capture &
Storage
Implement CCS at
• 800 GW coal electric plants or
• 1600 GW natural gas electric
plants or
• 180 coal synfuels plants or
• 10 times today’s capacity of
hydrogen plants
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
There are currently three storage projects that each inject
1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.
E, T, H / $$
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Nuclear
Electricity
Triple the world’s nuclear
electricity capacity by 2055
Graphic courtesy of NRC
The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is
equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.
E/ $$
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Wind Electricity
Install 1 million 2 MW
windmills to replace coalbased electricity,
OR
Use 2 million windmills to
produce hydrogen fuel
Photo courtesy of DOE
A wedge worth of wind electricity will require
increasing current capacity by a factor of 30
E, T, H / $-$$
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Solar
Electricity
Install 20,000 square kilometers for
dedicated use by 2054
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times
E / $$$
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Biofuels
Scale up current global ethanol
production by 30 times
Photo courtesy of NREL
Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area
the size of India with biofuels crops
T, H / $$
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Natural Sinks
Eliminate tropical deforestation
OR
Plant new forests over an area the
size of the continental U.S.
OR
Use conservation tillage on all
cropland (1600 Mha)
Conservation tillage is currently practiced
on less than 10% of global cropland
B/$
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Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO
Projected U.S. Population
Based on U.S. Census Data
450,000,000
400,000,000
Population
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
2000
2005
2020
2030
2050
Year
Population (U.S. Census)
Projected Washington, DC Population
8,000,000
7,000,000
Population
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000
2005
2020
2030
2050
Year
Population of the Washington, DC Metropolitan Area
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Table: Projected Population Increases Based on Year 2000 Data
Year
2005
2020
2030
2050
Global
6.4%
25.2%
35.8%
50.1%
United States
6.3%
19.3%
29.2%
39.6%
Washington Metro
8.2%
31.5%
43.5%
52.2%*
* Estimated Population Increase
Sources: United Nations, U. S. Census, MWCOG 2007
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Projected U.S. CO2 Emissions in Tonnes per Capita
U.S. CO2 Emissions
(Tonnes Per Capita)
Based on EIA Data
30.00
28.00
26.00
24.00
22.00
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
2000
2005
2020
2030
2050
Year
Emissions (tonnes), low
Emissions (tonnes), high
Emissions (tonnes), ref
MWCOG Per Capita Estimates for Washington, DC
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Washington Region CO2e Emissions,
35% increase by 2030
Preliminary CO2e Emissions Projections for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
Import of Electricity
CO2e Emissions (million metric tons/year)
120.0
Wastewater
100.0
Hydrofluorocarbons
80.0
Commercial Aviation
Other Fuel Use
60.0
Industrial Fuel Use
40.0
Commercial Fuel Use
20.0
Residential Fuel Use
-
Transportation Combustion
2005
2010
2020
Year
2030
Energy/Electrical Generating
Units (EGUs)
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Reduction Goals: Examples

Cool Counties (Arlington, Montgomery, Fairfax
Counties)
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Mayor’s Agreement (D.C.)
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7% below 1990 levels by 2012
RGGI (applies to Electrical Generating Units)
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Stop growth in 2010
80% below current levels by 2050
1990 levels by 2015
10% below 2009 by 2019
Virginia Energy Plan
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2000 levels by 2025 (Reduce 30%)
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Pew Center for Global Climate Change
Questions for discussion
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What is the objective in setting a regional
climate change goal?
How can a regional climate change goal
accommodate growth in the region?
Who would the goal apply to? (local govts?)
How would progress towards a goal be
measured?
How can a regional goal be consistent with a
variety of local climate change goals?
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Ideas
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Set a per capita GHG reduction goal
Use an average of reduction goals adopted
by local governments in the region
Set an aspirational long term goal for 2050
and a work on a short term goal (2020) with a
strategy for meeting it and measuring
progress.
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Regional Climate Change
Goals

Nov. 28: First discussion of regional goals
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Goal is to set regional climate change goals
by April 2008
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