Transcript Climate Change and Equity - Institute of Urban and
Climate Change
and
Equity
Sivan Kartha Stockholm Environment Institute Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World Berkeley, California 5 March 2015
IPCC AR5 (2014): “We can keep warming below 2°C.” ~4-5 °C
~3 °C
IPCC AR5 WGIII, SPM, Figure SPM 4 > 100 techno-economic scenarios illustrating low emissions development paths (blue range) that keep warming likely to remain below 2 °c.
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40 30 60 50 20 10 0 2000 Climate and Equity: a bird’s eye view 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
40 30 60 50 20 10 0 2000 Climate and Equity: a bird’s eye view 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
40 30 60 50 20 10 0 2000 Climate and Equity: a bird’s eye view 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
40 30 60 50 20 10 0 2000 Climate and Equity: a bird’s eye view 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Climate challenge … in the midst of a development crisis?
• Nearly 2 million per year die from lung diseases due to cooking smoke • About 800 million people chronically undernourished • More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water • 2 million children die per year from diarrhea • 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases • 3 billion people without access to clean cooking fuel, electricity, or both 7
When do emissions have to peak and start falling?
IPCC AR5 WGIII, Ch. 6 Figure 6.7
No. America/W. Eur Japan/Aus/New Z Asia Latin America Middle East/Africa Economies in Transition Emissions peak, globally and in all regions, in next ~10 years in the “likely 2°C” category of paths.
→ Broad low-GHG transformation underway in all regions.
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Income in year that emissions peak
$10,000 Norway United States Canada Australia Japan EU27 Russia Ukraine $ $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Income in 2010 $50,000 Korea, Rep.
China Mexico Brazil South Africa Iran Indonesia India LDCs Projected income range 2015 - 2025 Sources: World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank, May2013); Incomes in PPP US$
Why a global climate response must be fair to be effective: No single country can protect “its own” climate by reducing its own emissions No country can solve its own climate problem for itself.
Countries must persuade other countries to help it solve its climate problem A country thus reduces its own emissions – and cooperates in other ways – for the sake of inducing reciprocal effort (that is, getting other countries to do likewise).
A country is more likely to be successful if it is perceived as doing its fair share of the effort.
So, international cooperation with equitable effort-sharing is more likely to be agreed and successfully implemented.
“Outcomes seen as equitable can lead to more effective cooperation.” [IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers, 2014]
Principles, Article 3.1, UNFCCC, 1992
“The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
”
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Principle 7, Rio Declaration, 1992
“In view of the different contributions to global environmental degradation, States have
common but differentiated responsibilities
. The developed countries acknowledge the responsibility that they bear in the international pursuit of sustainable development in view of
the pressures their societies place on the global environment
and of
the technologies and financial resources they command
.”
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“Countries will be asked to meet different requirements based upon their historical share or contribution to the problem and their relative ability to carry the burden of change . This precedent is well established in international law, and there is no other way to do it.
”
Al Gore 13
Income and Capacity
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Emissions and Responsibility
fossil CO 2 (cumulative since 1990 showing portion defined as “responsibility”)
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National fair share of the effort based on national “capacity” and “responsibility” EU 27
- EU 15 - EU +12
Norway United States China India South Africa LDCs Annex I Non-Annex I High Income Middle Income Low Income World Population %
7.3 5.8 1.5 0.07 4.5 19.7 17.2 0.7 11.7 18.7 81.3 15.5 63.3 21.2 100%
Income ($/capita)
30,472 33,754 17,708 52,406 45,640 5,899 2,818 10,117 1,274 30,924 5,096 36,488 6,226 1,599 9,929
Capacity % 28.8
26.1
2.7
0.54
29.7
5.8
0.66
0.6
0.11
75.8
24.2
76.9
22.9
0.2
100 % Responsibility % 22.6
19.8
2.8
0.26
36.4
5.2
0.30
1.3
0.04
78.0
22.0
77.9
21.9
0.2
100 % RCI (obligations) % 25.7
22.9
2.7
0.40
33.1
5.5
0.48
1.0
0.07
76.9
23.1
77.4
22.4
0.2
100 %
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National fair share of the effort
based on capacity and responsibility 2010 EU 27
- EU 15 - EU +12
Switzerland United states Japan Russia China India South Africa Mexico LDCs Annex I Non-Annex I High Income Middle Income Low Income World Population
(% of global)
7.3
5.8
1.5
0.11
4.5
1.9
2.0
19.7
17.2
0.7
1.6
11.7
18.7
81.3
15.5
63.3
21.2
100% GDP per capita
($US PPP)
30,472 33,754 17,708 39,181 45,640 33,422 15,031 5,899 2,818 10,117 12,408 1,274 30,924 5,096 36,488 6,226 1,599 9,929 Capacity
(% of global)
28.8
26.1
2.7
0.60
29.7
8.3
2.7
5.8
0.66
0.6
1.8
0.11
75.8
24.2
76.9
22.9
0.2
100 % Responsibility
(% of global)
22.6
19.8
2.8
0.27
36.4
7.3
4.9
5.2
0.30
1.3
1.4
0.04
78.0
22.0
77.9
21.9
0.2
100 % RCI
(% of global)
25.7
22.9
2.7
0.44 33.1
7.8
3.8
5.5
0.5
1.0
1.6
0.07
77 23 77 22 0.2
100 % 2020 RCI
(% of global)
22.9
19.9
3.0
0.37
29.1
6.6
4.3
10.4
1.2
1.1
1.5
0.10
69 31 69 30 0.3
100 % 2030 RCI
(% of global)
19.6
16.7
3.0
0.30
25.5
5.5
4.6
15.2
2.3
1.2
1.5
0.12
61 39 61 38 0.5
100 %
Fairly sharing the global emission reduction effort among countries according to Responsibility and Capability 18
Fairly sharing the global emission reduction effort among countries according to Responsibility and Capability 19
“Fair” reductions for the United States
“Fair” reductions for the United States
“Fair” reductions for the United States
Summary Comments
• The science is unambiguous. The climate is changing, and it presents severe risks. • It is technically and economically possible to reduce emissions rapidly enough to keep warming below 2 °C. It would mean carbon-based development is no longer an option in the North,
nor in the South.
• A global transition to low emission future is likely to be achieved only if it is done cooperatively and in a way that is widely perceived to be fair.
• In the developed countries, deep emissions reductions are important and necessary. But only part of the story… • Earnest efforts to enable the climate transition to occur support are
equally crucial globally,
. (And won’t ruin our economies.) through cooperation with the developing countries through technology & financial • This isn’t just about equity and justice… it’s about being realistic about what is needed to preserve our own futures.
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Some questions
•
Trade-offs or interdependencies?
the other?
Where are there indeed trade-offs between environmental sustainability and equity? Where is one dependent on •
Is there a “tech-fix?”
Can questions of lifestyle, behavior, and distribution be put aside? Can an environmentally sustainable world co-exist with radical disparities in consumption? (Does environmental sustainability look like hydrogen-fueled Hummers driving between elite enclaves)? •
Is there a “policy tweak”?
Can we avoid questions of political and economic structure? Do disparities in political and economic power need to be corrected? (Can we achieve environmental sustainability with a nominal carbon tax and better informed consumers?) •
Cooperative or competitive futures?
At what point does a cooperative global solution move out of reach? What will make us tip toward a “we’re all in this together” response versus “devil take the hindmost” response? •
What do we do now that is setting the stage for one future or the other?
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Thank you
www.sei-international.org
• • • • www.ClimateEquityReference.org
National fair shares: The mitigation gap – domestic action and international support National Fair Shares (SEI Discussion Brief) The North-South divide, equity and development The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World: The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework
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