Transcript Climate Change: Not a Top Priority for Americans

CLIMATE
Do we know where
we are headed?
Karen A. Harbert
Institute for 21st Century Energy
http://www.energyxxi.org
29 May 2009
1
Where We Are: U.S. GHG Emissions
 U.S. net GHG gross emissions are about 6 gigatons a year
 Gross GHG emissions about 7 gigatons.
 U.S. GHG emissions account for about 15% of global emissions
(based
on IPCC
estimate
of 49 GtCO
2004).
Total
U.S. global
Net GHG
Emissions:
1990
toin2007
2 eq.
 U.S. net GHG emissions were 3% lower in 2007 compared to 2000.
7,000
6,000
HFCs, PFCs, and SF6
Nitrous Oxides
Methane
Net Carbon Dioxide
MMTCO2eq
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: EPA , Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2007 (Draft)
2
Where We Are: Recent Performance
Comparable to International Peers
Changes in Net GHG Emissions 2000-2006 for 17 Major Economies
France
-6.3%
USA
-3.0%
UK
-2.9%
Germany
-1.7%
EU-15
-0.8%
Japan
-0.6%
Italy
0.1%
EU-27
0.1%
Australia
4.8%
3.9%
Russia
South Korea **
6.4%
Mexico **
6.8%
Brazil **
9.2%
South Africa **
9.4%
Indonesia **
9.6%
India **
9.9%
Canada
21.3%
China **
-10%
45.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/
national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php); IEA Online Energy Services <http://data.iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp>.
** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.
50%
3
U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001
Eight Most Significant Sectors
 Renewable Fuels*
 +500% by 2022; 36 billion gallons; ~15% supply
 Vehicle Fuel Economy*
 +40% by 2020; 35 mpg; avoid 8.5 billion gallons a year; ~5% supply
 Lighting Efficiency*
 +25-30% by 2012-2014; +70% by 2020
 Appliance Efficiency*
 +45 new standards
 Federal Government Operations* (bigger than most countries)
 30% Efficiency and 20% Renewable Fuel Use by 2015
 Accelerated HCFC Phaseout
 More reduction than Kyoto; includes developing countries
 Renewable Power
 26 States; 500% increase to date; Federal government help
 Building Codes
 Federal government promoting new 30% model code
* Preliminary estimates show that, combined, these mandates will prevent
about 5 gigatons of GHG emissions through 2030.
4
Obama Administration Emission
Reduction Goals
 Mid-Term Goal: Cut U.S. emissions to 14% below 2005 level
 To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈1 gigaton of GHG emissions by 2020.
 Long-Term Goal: Cut emissions 83% below 2005 level
 To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈6 to 7 gigatons of GHG emissions by
2050.
 If the U.S. achieved an 80% reduction in emissions in 2050:
 U.S. GHG emissions intensity would decline from about 0.65 to ≈0.04 metric
tons CO2 eq. per constant $1,000 GDP.
 U.S. GHG emissions per capita would decline from about 24 tons CO2 eq. in
2005 to 2.8 tons in 2050.
Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe
possible without severe economic harm?
And just how big is a gigaton of CO2?
Sources: EIA, AEO 2009, Year-to-Year Table 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeotab_18.xls>; EIA Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Table 5
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls>; U.S. Census, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to
2050 <http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t1.xls>.
5
How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2?
Today’s
Technology
Actions that Provide
1 Gigaton per Year of Mitigation
Coal-Fired Power
Plants
Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without
CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate
generating capacity
Geologic
Sequestration
Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project
(1.0 MtCO2/year)
Nuclear
Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1.0-GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power
plants without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)
Electricity from
Landfill Gas Projects
Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3-MW projects at nonregulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric
generation
Efficiency
Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg
(12,000 miles per year)
Wind Energy
Install 127,500 wind turbines (2.0-MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coalfired power plants without CO2 capture and storage
Solar Photovoltaics
Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2
capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv.
eff’cy).
Biomass Fuels from
Plantations
Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa
(about 200 million acres)
CO2 Storage in New
Forest.
Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of
Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)
1Gigaton
= 1 billion metric tons.
Based on current technology and U.S. data.
Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)
2
6
Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions
Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050
 An estimated 0.04 metric tons CO2 eq. per $1,000 of GDP in 2050 would be
comparable to the CO2 emissions intensities of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guinea, Laos,
Uganda in 2005.
 An estimated 2.8 metric tons per capita in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2
emissions per capita of Armenia, Gabon, Jordan, North Korea, Turkey in 2005.
Countries With CO2 Emissions
Intensities <0.1 Metric Tons per $1,000 of
GDP in 2005.
Countries With per Capita CO2
Emissions >2.5 and <3.5 Metric Tons
in 2005.
Central African Republic
Armenia
Haiti
Burundi
Belize
Rwanda
French Polynesia
Malawi
Jordan
Ethiopia
Turkey
Nepal
Korea, North
Bangladesh
Cook Islands
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Mauritius
Lesotho
Mongolia
Guinea
U.S. 2050
Laos
Grenada
Mali
U.S. 2050
Syria
Afghanistan
Algeria
Cambodia
Cuba
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
Metric Tons CO2 per Constant $1,000 of GDP (Using PPP)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Metric Tons per Capita
Sources: EIA, World Carbon Intensity—World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels Using Purchasing Power Parities,
1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1pco2.xls>; EIA, World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and
Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls>. NOTE: Data for countries other than U.S. includes CO2
from fossil fuel combustion only. The inclusion of other GHGs would raise these figures only modestly, if at all.
7
Energy vs. Climate Change: Where
is public opinion?
A January 2009 Pew Research Center poll
found that climate change ranked dead last
among 20 issues of concern to Americans.
Energy ranked number 6.
A March 2009 Gallup poll found a majority
of Americans believe the seriousness of
global warming is either correctly portrayed
in the news or underestimated. However,
41% now say it is exaggerated, the highest
level of public skepticism in more than a
decade of Gallup polling on the subject.
8
9
Impact of Carbon Prices Energy on Costs
Coal, which has a high carbon content, will be hit hardest.
Additional Cost to Average 2008 Energy Prices Under Different Carbon
Prices
(Percent Increase)
500
$100 per Metric Ton
450
$50 per Metric Ton
Percent Increase
400
$20 per Metric Ton
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Imported
Crude Oil
Distillate Fuel
Oil
(Residential)
Low Sulfur
Diesel
Motor
Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Residual Fuel Coal (Electric Natural Gas
Oil
Power)
(Residential)
Natural Gas
(Electric
Power)
Electricity
(Ave Price All
Sectors)
Sources: EIA, Documentation for Emissions of GHGs 2006, Table 6-1 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/documentation/pdf/0638(2006).pdf>; EIA AEO 2009, Supplemental
Table 128, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/suptab_128.xls>; EIA AEO 2009, Year-by-Year Reference Tables 8, 12, 13, 15 & 18
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. NOTE: Uses average prices in 2008 as a baseline.
10
Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future
Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries:
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050
Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and
2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE
Coming Transition in Emissions
Asia. from 1990 to 2050
45
Gigatons CO2
40
35
OECD
30
Non-OECD
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2005
2015
2030
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
2050
11
Global CO2 Emissions—Scale of Reductions
Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050
To halve energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to
2005 would require reductions/avoidances in excess of
45 gigatons—equivalent to over 7 times current U.S.
emissions.
60
Energy Emissions, Gt CO2 /yr
CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)
70
61.7 Gt/yr
50
+132%
-78%
40
30
20
`
26.6 Gt/yr
10
13.3 Gt/yr
0
Global
Emissions
20052005
Emissions
20502050
Reference
Global
Reference
Emissions
Emissions
2050
Global50%
Global
Emissions
CO2 Emissions
2005 at 50% of
2005 Emissions
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
12
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050,
Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries
Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
OECD Countries
50
Non-OECD Countries
OECD Emissions at “0”
2050 Reference
Emissions
OECD Emissions at
20% 2005 Emissions
OECD Emissions at
50% 2005 Emissions
Emissions, Gt CO2 /yr
COEnergy
2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)
40
30
20
-69%
2005
-75%
2005
-65%
-84%
10
-86%
-100%
0
OECD
2050
2050
Non-OECD
2050
2050
OECD
2050
2050
Non2050
2050
Annex
2050
20502050
Annex
2050
Annex
2050
2050
Annex
2050
Reference
OECD
2050
Non-OECD
Reference
Reference
Emissions
at
-100%
OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
at -
OECD
I at
-80%
INon-OECD
at -80%
I at
-50%
OECD
Emissions
100%
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Non-OECD
I at -50%
Emissions
Reference
Emissions
Emissions
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. NOTE: Includes CO2
emissions from energy.
13
Scale of Changes in Global Power Sector
to Achieve “50-by-50”
Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to
Additional Annual Investment in Electricity Sector (Compared to 2005 – 2050
Halve
2005toGlobal
2050:
2 Emissions
Baseline)
Halve CO
2005
Global CO2by
Emissions
by 2050:
2010 to2010
2050to 2050
Coal-Fired w/ CCS
35 500-MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants
20 500-MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants
Gas-Fired w/ CCS
Nuclear
32 1,000-MW Nuclear Plants
Hydropower
1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity
100 50-MW Biomass Plants
Biomass
Wind: On-Shore
14,000 4-MW Turbines
Wind: Off-Shore
3,750 4-MW Turbines
130 100-MW Geothermal Units
Geothermal
Photovoltaics
215 million m2
Concentrating Solar Power
80 250-MW CSP Plants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GW/year
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
14
Scale of CO2 Storage
0.30
25
CO2 Storage Rate at Level 2 (≈550 ppm)
0.25
Gt CO2/yr
0.20
20
0.15
Gt CO2/yr
0.10
0.05
0.00
Today
15
By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr may be
required, ≈30 to 35x more than
today.
By the end of the century,
approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may be
required, over 400x more than today.
10
2020
5
Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv)
MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H.
Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a).
Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of
Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S.
Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee
on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Biological &
Environmental Research.
0
Today
2020
2050
2100
15
Scale of Changes in Global Transport
Sector to Achieve “50-by-50”
Change in Average Annual Vehicle Sales (Compared to Baseline)
to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
Average Annual Vehicle
Sales: 2010 to 2050
2010 to 2050
(Millions
Year)
(Vehiclesper
in Millions)
Million Vehicles Per Year
100
H2 Fuel Cell
Vehicles
80
Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicles
Biofuel Flex-Fuel
Vehicles
60
Gasoline & Diesel
Hybrids
Gasoline & Diesel
Conventional
40
20
0
Baseline 2050
50-by-50
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
16
Principles for Climate Change Policy
International Principles
 Place the U.S. on an equal competitive footing with the rest of the
world.
 Set realistic and achievable goals that do not undermine
economic growth;
 Ensure global participation, including binding commitments from
large developing countries;
 Consider growing energy needs, circumstances, and resources in
all countries;
 Ensure that mitigation actions by all parties are measurable,
reportable, and verifiable;
 Recognize technology development and commerce as crucial
prerequisites to achieving emission reductions;
 Protect intellectual property rights and the rule of law;
 Remove trade barriers to environmental goods and services
17
A Path Forward Involves …
Progress in climate change technology to:
 create new, better, and less costly solutions
 facilitate means for change and a smooth transition
 Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy
goods and services
 Protecting intellectual property rights
 Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration
 Developing a new international framework that is
realistic, economically sustainable and
environmentally effective
18