Transcript G-8 Preparatory Meeting

Energy Technology Perspectives
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
APEC EWG 32
Sakhalin
Dr. Robert K. Dixon
Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2006
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G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué
July 2005
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our
shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing
energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction
with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“
“The IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and
strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive
energy future”
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2006
ETP 2006 provides
part of IEA’s “advice on
scenarios and strategies” at
St. Petersburg
ETP 2006 presents
a groundbreaking review of
technologies across
all
sectors and assess
how
they together can make a
difference
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Energy Technology Perspectives
Presents
 Status and perspectives for key energy
technologies in:
 Electricity Generation
 Road Transport Technologies & Fuels
 Buildings & Appliances
 Industry
 Global scenarios to illustrate potentials for
different technologies under accelerated
policies
 Strategies for helping key technologies make
a difference
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ETP Modelling Framework
 Proven, validated modelling framework
 Captures technological change
 Accounts for competing resource use
biomass, CO2-free electricity)
(e.g.
 Accounts for competing technologies
 Endogenous fuel price response
 Carbon leakage effects
 Easy sensitivity and scenario analysis
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15 ETP model regions
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Results from
the Scenario Analysis
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Scenario Analysis
 Scenarios analysed:
 Baseline Scenario
 Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)
 TECH Plus scenario
 ACT and TECH Plus scenarios:
 Analyse the impact from R&D, Demonstration and
Deployment measures
 Incentives equivalent to 25 $/tonne CO2
for low-carbon technologies implemented
worldwide from 2030 and on
 Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions
for key technology areas
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Technology Assumptions
Scenario
Renewables
ACT Map
ACT
Low
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
H2 fuel cells
Advanced
biofuels
2.0 % p.a.
global
improvement
Relatively optimistic across all technology areas
Slower cost
reductions
ACT
Low Nuclear
Lower public
acceptance
ACT
No CCS
No CCS
1.7 % p.a.
global
improvement
ACT
Low Efficiency
TECH Plus
End-use
efficienc
y
Stronger cost
reductions
Stronger cost
reductions &
technology
improvements
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Breakthrough for
FC
Stronger cost
reductions &
improved
feedstock
availability
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline Scenario
60 000
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
Other
50 000
Buildings
40 000
Transport
Industry
30 000
Transformation
Power
Generation
20 000
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Emissions increase 137% from today’s level
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and Map Scenario
60 000
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
Other
50 000
Buildings
40 000
Transport
Industry
30 000
+6%
Transformation
Power
Generation
20 000
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Map
Map Scenario (Relatively optimistic across all technology areas) :
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and ACT Scenarios
60 000
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
Other
50 000
Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
Industry
Transformation
+6%
Power
Generation
20 000
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Map
No CCS
Impact of not having CCS available
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline and ACT Scenarios
60 000
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
50 000
Other
Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
+27%
Industry
Transformation
+6%
Power
Generation
20 000
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Map
No CCS
Impact of less efficiency progress
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Low
Efficiency
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
60 000
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
50 000
Other
Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
Industry
+27%
Transformation
+6%
-16%
20 000
Power
Generation
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Map
No CCS
Low
TECH Plus
Efficiency
2050
TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key technologies
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Emission Reduction by Technology Area
ACT Map Scenario
Coal to gas
Nuclear
End-use
efficiency
Fossil fuel generation
efficiency
Power
generation
CCS
Hydropower
Biomass
Biofuels in transport
CCS in fuel
transformation
Fuel mix in buildings
and industry
Other renewables
CCS in industry
Improved energy efficiency
is the most important contributor to reduced emissions!
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Energy Efficiency - A top Priority
 Improved energy efficiency saves about
15 000 Mt CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of
current emissions
 Improved efficiency halves expected growth
in electricity demand and reduces the need
for generation capacity by a third
 In a scenario with less progress in efficiency,
CO2 emissions increase more than 20%
 Lower efficiency progress increases supplyside investments and costs of reducing CO2
emissions
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Global Electricity Generation by Fuel
100%
2%
17%
80%
6%
9%
7%
2%
15%
4%
15%
Shares
16%
15%
14%
18%
21%
25%
26%
2%
2%
14%
15%
16%
12%
14%
13%
16%
ACT Map
ACT Low
Nuclear
ACT Low
Renewables
ACT No CCS
6%
39%
15%
22%
2%
46%
27%
18%
2%
2%
14%
5%
0%
2003
Coal
Coal-CCS
Baseline 2050
Oil
Gas
6%
9%
16%
3%
20%
19%
5%
14%
17%
19%
40%
17%
3%
4%
27%
60%
9%
16%
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
TECH Plus 2050
Other renewables
ACT Scenarios: Important role for CCS
and strong growth in the shares for renewables and nuclear.
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Electricity Generation
CO2 Capture and Storage a Key Option
 CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a CO2
constrained world – without CCS coal-fired generation
in 2050 drops below today’s level
 By 2050 more than 5 000 TWh electricity globally can
be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS
 There is an urgent need for more R&D and for fullscale CCS demonstration plants
 Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050
 Nuclear can gain a much more important role in
countries where it is acceptable
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CO2 Intensity Coal Fired Power Generation
China 2003 - 2050
1 000
800
CCS
impact
Grams of CO2 per kWh
1 200
600
400
200
0
2003
Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
ACT Map
2050
More than 50% reduction in CO2 intensity due
to improved generation efficiency and CCS .
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World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario
2003-2050
8 000
7 000
6 000
Hydrogen
M toe
5 000
Biofuels
4 000
Synfuels
3 000
Oil
2 000
1 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030 (WEO
2005)
Baseline
2050
AC T Map
2050
AC T Low
Efficiency
2050
TEC H Plus
2050
Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level
and is returned to about today’s level in TECH Plus.
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Transport CO2 Emissions by Scenario
14 000
Mt CO2
10 000
8 000
Savings
2050 Baseline Emission Level
Savings
12 000
Hydrogen
(including fuel
cell efficiency)
Biofuels
6 000
Fuel efficiency
4 000
2 000
CO2
emissions
0
2003
Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050
TECH Plus
2050
Map Scenario: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions reduction is
from improved fuel efficiency and one-third from biofuels.
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Transport
Key to Reduce Growth in Oil Demand
 Share of biofuels by 2050 is 13% and average
2050 vehicle is almost 50% more efficient than
today
 Reduce expected growth in transport oil demand
by almost 50%
 Transport accounts for 62% of the 42 mbpd total
oil savings by 2050, which more than halves the
expected growth in total oil demand
 Hydrogen and Fuel Cells can reduce transport oil
demand and CO2 emissions even further and can
be crucial for long-term sustainability
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CO2 Emissions
Baseline and Map Scenarios
OECD
35 000
Developing Countries
+250%
30 000
Mt CO2
25 000
+70%
20 000
+65%
15 000
-32%
10 000
5 000
0
2003
Baseline
2050
ACT Map
2050
2003
Baseline
2050
ACT Map
2050
Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while
emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher.
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Scenario Analysis
Key Findings
 Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050
 CO2 emissions can be returned towards today’s
level by 2050
 Growth in oil and electricity demand can be
halved
 Power generation can be substantially
carbonised by 2050
de-
 De-carbonising transport will take longer but
must be achieved in the second half of the
century
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Technology Implications
 A technology portfolio will be needed
 Improving energy efficiency is top priority
 CCS is key for a sustainable energy future
 Other important technologies:
 Renewables, including biofuels
 Nuclear
 Efficient use of natural gas
 In time and with effort, hydrogen and fuel cells
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Policy Implications
 A more sustainable energy future is possible with
known technology
 The costs are not out of reach
 But urgent action is needed in both,
public and private sectors:
Overcome barriers for adoption of energy
efficient technologies
Enhance R&D
Accelerate demonstration and deployment
Provide clear and predictable incentives
 Collaboration between developed & developing
countries is essential
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Thank you!
[email protected]
© OECD/IEA 2006
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