Transcript G-8 Preparatory Meeting - Ulkopoliittinen instituutti

World Energy Perspectives
and Consequences for
Europe
Claude Mandil
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
FIIA EU-Presidency Lecture Series
Helsinki, 3 May 2006
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Business-as-usual Scenario
18 000
16 000
14 000
Natural gas
Mtoe
12 000
10 000
Oil
8 000
6 000
4 000
Coal
2 000
Other renewables
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Hydro
power
Nuclear
power
2030
In the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand
will rise by 52 % by 2030
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This is Not
Sustainable for the
World nor Europe!
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World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
20 000
Mt of CO2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
1980
OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing
countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s
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EU CO2 Emissions in the
“Business-as-usual” Scenario
5 000
Mt of CO2
4 000
1990 = 3 733 Mt
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1970
1980
1990
Power generation
2000
2010
Transport
2020
2030
Other
EU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030
respectively
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Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil
and Natural Gas Supply
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004
2010
2020
OPEC Share of Oil Supply
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2030
CIS Share of Natural Gas Supply
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Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be
1.4 billion people without electricity
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But the future is not
predetermined…
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Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference
& Alternative Scenarios
40 000
Mt of CO
2
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
1990
2000
Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
Policies that governments are already considering – but have not
yet enacted – would cut CO2 emissions by 16% in 2030
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Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play
And Is Available In The Short Term
Energy efficiency offers
High performance
buildings
 substantial energy and greenhouse gas
savings at low or negative cost
Compact Fluorescent
Lamps
 energy security and reliability benefits
Least life-cycle
cost appliances
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Labelling and
certification
 enhanced business competitiveness and
social welfare
LED traffic lights
Efficient information and
communication technologies
Super windows &
daylighting
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Reducing standby
power consumption
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Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year
Coal
CO2 Sequestration
Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants
with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants
Wind
Install 200 x current US wind generation
Solar PV
Install 1300 x current US solar generation
Nuclear
Build 140 1-GW power plants
Efficient Lighting
Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)
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Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004
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“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our
shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing
energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction
with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“
-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”
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The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles
Plan of Action (Examples)
1.
Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency:




2.
Energy Technology Perspectives


Limit Standby Power Use to 1-Watt
A Fuel-Efficient Tire Program
Efficiency standards for television “set-top” boxes
More Efficient Lighting
A new publication providing scenario analysis of the potential of
energy technologies to 2050

How much can different technologies deliver?

By when can they deliver?

What barriers need to be overcome?
This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in
the lead up to the St. Petersburg Summit
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The EU Green Paper


“A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive
and Secure Energy”
Identifies six key areas where action is necessary:








Competitiveness and the internal energy market
Diversification of the energy mix
Solidarity
Sustainable development
Innovation and technology
External policy
The Spring European Council and the European
Parliament are invited to react to the Paper
The Commission will then table concrete proposals
for action
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The EU Green Paper
 The Proposals could be improved by:

Norms and standards: Taking a stronger stance in
terms of the use of norms and standards to obtain enduse energy efficiency improvements

Renewables: Paying more attention to the costs of
setting overly ambitious renewables targets and putting
more focus on improving their cost-competitiveness
through R&D

A European regulator: Giving real consideration to the
bold proposal of establishing a new regulator for crossborder investment and trade issues
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What a wonderful
challenge for the
Finnish Presidency!
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