Transcript Energy Technology Policy Progress and Way Forward ECCP II Conference Brussels 24 October 2005 Fridtjof Unander Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE.

Energy Technology Policy
Progress and Way Forward
ECCP II Conference
Brussels
24 October 2005
Fridtjof Unander
Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Presentation Overview
 A look back on past trends
 Looking ahead; scenarios to 2030 and
2050
 Technology policy messages
 Future work: G8 Plan of Action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Looking back
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Demand and Savings since 1973
IEA -11
160
140
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical energy use, without savings
120
100
exajoules
50%
Additional energy
use without
savings
80
60
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
Actual energy use
40
20
0
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy
demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher
IEA-11 Energy Use
Impact of Energy Savings
3,0%
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
2,5%
Average Annual % Growth
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical Energy Use
without Energy Savings
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
1973-1990
1990-1998
IEA-11 Energy Use
Impact of Energy Savings
3,0%
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
2,5%
Average Annual % Growth
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical Energy Use
without Energy Savings
Energy
Savings
2,0%
1,5%
Actual
Energy Use
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
1973-1990
1990-1998
Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly
after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth
IEA CO2 Emissions 1973 - 2001
120%
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
CO2 Emissions in 1990 = 100%
115%
110%
1.1%/year
105%
0.1%/year
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Recent trends show steady increase
IEA CO2 Emissions per GDP
1973 - 2001
0.9
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
0.8
CO2/GDP (kg CO2/USD)
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
-2.6 %/year
0.7
0.6
-1.2 %/year
0.5
0.4
1972
1974 1976
1978 1980
1982
1984 1986
1988 1990 1992
1994 1996
Rate of decline has slowed since 1990
1998 2000
IEA-11 CO2 Emissions
Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
3,0%
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
2,5%
Average Annual % Growth
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions
@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
1973-1990
1990-1998
IEA-11 CO2 Emissions
Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
3,0%
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
2,5%
Average Annual % Growth
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions
@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
Less carbon
in fuel mix
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
1973-1990
1990-1998
IEA-11 CO2 Emissions
Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
3,0%
OF ENERGY USE
IN IEA COUNTRIES
2,5%
Average Annual % Growth
Oil
Crises &
Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions
@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
Less carbon
in fuel mix
2,0%
Energy
Savings
1,5%
1,0%
Actual
Emissions
0,5%
0,0%
1973-1990
1990-1998
Slowing energy savings rates primary reason
for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990
Looking ahead
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions
Expected Ahead
20 000
Mt of CO 2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
1980
OECD
Source: WEO 2004
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing
countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
Global CO2 Emissions in the
Reference & Alternative Scenarios
40 000
Mt of CO
2
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
1990
2000
Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in 2030,
Source: WEO 2004
a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO
2
Contributory Factors in CO2
Emission Reduction, 2002-2030
100%
20%
21%
15%
5%
80%
10%
60%
17%
5%
7%
12%
21%
8%
1%
4%
7%
10%
40%
58%
63%
67%
Transition economies
Developing countries
49%
20%
0%
World
OECD
End-use efficiency gains
Fuel switching in end uses
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
Increased renewables in power generation
Increased nuclear in power generation
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than
half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%
But this is not enough…
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Example of IEA Technology Analysis :
Role of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
40
PROSPECTS
FOR
CO2 CAPTURE
AND
STORAGE
[Gt CO2/yr]
35
+ 25%
30
25
50$/t CO2 w ith CCS
20
50$/t CO2 w ithout CCS
15
10
5
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
$50/tCO2: 2050 emissions would be 25%
higher in absence of CCS
Long-term Technology Opportunities
 No silver bullet, but some features are clear:
Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can
make a difference in the short and long term
 CCS is a crucial technology in the medium term
 Renewables can steadily make an increasing impact
and is key for the long-term sustainability

 Need to pursue a “portfolio” approach in
developing policies for technology deployment
and R&D
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Future work
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology
Opportunities planned for 2006
 Update of IEA World Energy Outlook
Alternative Policy Scenario including analysis
of new energy technologies that are expected
to emerge from 2030 to 2050
 New IEA publication “Global Energy
Technology Perspectives” will address in detail
how technologies may impact long-term energy
markets (2050)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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IEA Roles in the G8 Gleneagles
Plan of Action
 Dialogue partner
 Advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies
 Transform the way we use energy
 Energy indicators
 Buildings
 Appliances
 Surface transport
 Industry
 Powering a clean energy future
 Cleaner fossil fuels
 Carbon capture and storage
 Develop renewable energy IEA Implementing Agreements
 Electricity grids
 Promoting Networks for Research and Development
 Enhance the Implementing Agreements and reinforce links with
developing countries and industry
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Working with Others
 The IEA technology network
 National governments
 Major developing countries
 Industry
 Other international organisations
 Existing international initiatives
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE