Transcript Document 7496281

La journée du cinquantenaire
du Génie Atomique
Centre CEA de Saclay, le 2 décembre 2005
Middle Eastern Supply and
Sustainability Challenges
Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2005
Claude Mandil
Directeur Exécutif
Agence Internationale de l’Energie
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
16 000
14 000
Oil
Mtoe
12 000
10 000
8 000
Gas
6 000
Coal
4 000
2 000
0
1970
1971
Other renewables
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Nuclear
Hydro
2030
World Energy Demand rises by 52 % between now and 2030 in the
Reference Scenario
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
This is Not
Sustainable!
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
2003
India
4%
Other
11%
2030
India
6%
MENA
6%
Other
16%
MENA
8%
China
16%
China
19%
Transition
economies
11%
OECD
52%
24 Gt
Transition
economies
9%
OECD
42%
37 Gt
Emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the
bulk of the increase coming from developing countries
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Net Oil Exports
MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its
net exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Natural Gas Exports
Billion cubic metres
MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the
increase in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demand
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Exports through the “Dire Straits”
Much of the additional oil and LNG exports from MENA in the future
will be shipped through just three maritime routes
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global Energy Investment 2004-2030
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Transition economies
China
Other Asia
Latin America
North Africa
Other Africa
Middle East
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
billion dollars (2004)
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Coal
Energy sector investment of $17 trillion will be needed through to 2030
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Crude Oil Production in the
Deferred Investment Scenario
60
50
mb/d
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
Reference Scenario
1990
2000
2010
Deferred Investment Scenario
2020
2030
Difference
In the Deferred Investment Scenario, MENA’s share of global oil production
falls from 35% in 2004 to 33% in 2030
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be
1.4 billion people without electricity
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But the future is not
predetermined…
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The World Alternative Policy Scenario
 Analyses impact of new environmental &
energy-security policies worldwide
 OECD: Policies currently under consideration
 Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy
intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient
technology
 Impact on fuel mix, CO2 emissions &
investment needs
 Basic macroeconomic & population
assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but
energy prices change
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
140
6000
120
5000
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
0
0
Oil
2004
bcm
mb/d
100
Gas
2030 Reference Scenario
2030 Alternative Scenario
Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are 10% lower in 2030 due
to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
CO2 Emissions in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
40 000
million tonnes of CO2
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
1990
2000
Coal
Oil
2010
Gas
2020
Alternative Policy Scenario
2030
Reference Scenario
CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario by 2030,
but are still more than 50% higher than 1990
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play
And Is Available In The Short Term
Energy efficiency offers:
 substantial energy and greenhouse gas
savings at low or negative cost

High performance
buildings
470 Mt/y CO2 in IEA region by 2020 in
appliances alone

Compact Fluorescent
Lamps
At negative cost: -€169/t CO2 (IEA)
 energy security and reliability benefits

Up to 1.5 Gt/y C by 2010; 2.7 Gt/y by 2020

Least life-cycle
cost appliances
 enhanced business competitiveness and
social welfare
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Labelling and
certification
Half of this at negative cost (IPCC)
Efficient information and
communication technologies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Reducing standby
power consumption
LED traffic lights
Super windows &
daylighting
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But this is still not enough…
 To achieve a truly sustainable energy system new
technologies will be needed for which
demonstration and R&D efforts must be scaled up
 But changes in energy infrastructure take time,
thus action is urgent
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The Technology Challenge
Stabilising Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations in the Atmosphere
No single technology
or policy can do it all
Vehicles: Efficiency, Biofuels, Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Different
- regions
- resources
- markets
- preferences
- scale-up
- technology
requirements timing
- infrastructures
Bio-Fuels and Power
Zero Net Emission Bldgs.,
Industrial Efficiency, CHP
Nuclear Power Generation IV
Renewable Energy
Technologies
Carbon (CO2) Sequestration
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Advanced Power Grids
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
17
Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year
Coal
CO2 Sequestration
Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants
with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants
Wind
Install 200 x current US wind generation in lieu of
unsequestered coal
Solar PV
Install 1300 x current US solar generation in lieu of
unsequestered coal
Nuclear
Build 140 1-GW power plants in lieu of unsequestered
coal plants
To meet the energy demand & stabilize CO2 concentrations
unprecedented technology changes must occur in this century
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
[Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004]
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Technology Opportunities
 No one solution, but some features are clear:
Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can make
a difference in the short and long term
CCS is crucial in the medium and long term but needs
full scale demonstration
Renewables are key for the long-term sustainability but
must be cost-effective
Nuclear can contribute more but must improve
technology and waste handling
 Need to pursue a “portfolio” policy approach for
technology deployment and R&D
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The G8 Initiative
 The G8 Plan of Action:




Energy Efficiency
Clean Fossil Fuel
Renewables
Technology Collaboration
 Focuses on areas that can make the most
difference
 Relevant to all consuming nations
 Dialogue leading to urgent action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The Role of the IEA
 The Means
 A major international programme of analysis,
workshops, sharing knowledge and experience
 Partnership with the Wold Bank and IFIs
 The End
 Energy scenarios and strategies for a clean energy
future
 Best practice for policy and regulation
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Messages
 Based on current policies, global energy needs in 2030
will be more than 50% higher than today
 THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE !
Rising CO2 emissions
Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions
Huge energy-investment needs
Persistent energy poverty
 More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in
energy demand and emission significantly
 But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster
technology development & deployment and institutional
change
 Urgent and decisive government action needed
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE