Carbon Dioxide Mitigation: The Technology Challenge

Richard A. Bradley and Cedric Philibert Energy Efficiency and Environment Division International Energy Agency INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Protecting the Environment LONG-TERM MITIGATION OBJECTIVE

“...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” UNFCCC(1992) Concern for long-term accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere SPECIFIED, ARBITRARY CONCENTRATION IMPLIED EMISSIONS IPCC 2001

Source: Haroon S. Kheshgi

CO 2 emissions approach zero for all stabilization levels INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

What can be done in the near term?

Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

Source: WEO 2004

CO 2 emissions are 16% less in the AS in 2030, a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO 2 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Are We On Track: The Development Agenda?

Electricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Avoiding 1 billion tons of CO

2

per year

Coal CO 2 Sequestration Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, or ...

Install 1000 Sleipner CO 2 sequestration plants Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation in lieu of unsequestered coal Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation in lieu of unsequestered coal Nuclear Build 140 1-GW power plants in lieu of unsequestered coal plants To meet the energy demand & stabilize CO 2 concentrations unprecedented technology changes must occur in this century INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Mitigation Policy & Technology

Capital Stock Turnover Rates • Capital stock turnover— You don’t kill the “cash cow.” Opportunities for learning are only in new capital stock • Increasing marginal cost of rapid deployment.

Household Appliances Res. Water Heaters Residential. HVAC Automobiles Commercial Vehc Commercial HVAC Manufacturing Equip Elec. Trans, Telecom, Pipelines Refinery Processes Power Stations Buildings Stock - Res/Comm Transport Links & Urban Development

Source: Adapted from PNL/Un. of Maryland

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Early market signals and technology R&D can work together to assist the market transition – Market oriented policies and R&D are inseparable!

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

In the near term, energy efficiency!

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

80 60 40

Without 25 Years of Energy Savings, Consumption Would Be 49% Higher

160 140

(IEA-11: 1973-1998)

Hypothetical energy Hypothetical energy use, without savings 120 intensity declines = Energy 100

49%

20 0 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95

Source: Oil Crises and Climate Challenges: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries IEA/OECD 2004 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

19 96 19 97 19 98

AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

There is an important role for cooperation



Some are cooperating within the Kyoto Protocol.



But to promote energy efficiency specifically



Standards, labeling, and barrier removal



Private-public partnerships



Government procurement and market transformation activities on a regional basis.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

In the Longer Term New Technologies



Two categories of action



Cooperative R&D



Cooperative Deployment Activities INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Cooperative RD&D



We cooperate because the scope and range of technologies exceed the reach of any countries R&D programme

 

IEA Implementing Agreements Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research



Newer models



International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy



Carbon Capture Leadership Forum INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Vehicles: Efficiency, Bio fuels, Hydrogen Fuel Cells The Technology Challenge Stabilising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere No single technology or policy can do it all

Different

- regions - resources - markets - preferences - scale-up - technology requirements timing - infrastructures Renewable Energy Technologies Zero Net Emission Bldgs., Industrial Efficiency, CHP Bio-Fuels and Power Nuclear Power Generation IV Carbon (CO 2 ) Sequestration INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Advanced Power Grids AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

12

Accelerated Deployment



EGTT Report on Enabling Environments



Recommendations included:



Focus on barrier removal



Engagement of broad range of stakeholders



Important role for private-public partnerships INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Barriers



Barriers to technology transfer exist at every stage of transfer and take a variety of forms including technical, economic, political, cultural, social, behavioral, and/or institutional



“green” international investment patterns through:



capacity building, incentives, and international barrier removal so as to promote “learning investments.



Technology agreements to work on testing methods, standards, labeling schemes, etc. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Barriers Exist in Both Transferring and Host Countries



Recognizing that national circumstances differ widely, opportunities exist for facilitating technology transfer through the appropriate enabling environments in transferring and recipient countries INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Opportunities for Improving Institutional Environments Exist at Many Levels



Various levels at which institutional environments influence technology transfer



local, national, regional and global levels. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

International Partnerships Important



There is agreement that international cooperation and partnerships can enhance the transfer of technology between countries and thus help



Success stories



WBCSD sector projects



Climate Technology Initiative assistance for Technology Needs Assessment’s



Swiss Agency for Development Cooperation assistance for adaptive R&D INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE