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Five Questions

Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change

Mindshare LA

July 2008



Los Angeles, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Outline 1. What is Accelerating Change?

2. What is the Universe?

3. Who are You in Relation to the Universe?

4. What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today? 5. Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies?

What is Accelerating Change?

Your intuitions, please!

What is Accelerating Change?

An Unexplained and Fascinating Phenomenon

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On A ‘Developmental Spiral’ Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

An unexplained physical phenomenon.

The Developmental Spiral Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

          

Homo Habilis

Age 2,000,000 yrs ago

Homo Sapiens

Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age Empires Age

Scientific

Age 7,000 yrs 2,500 yrs

380 yrs

(1500-1770)

180 yrs

(1770-1950)

Industrial

Age

Information

Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity

70 yrs

(1950-2020) 30 yrs (2020-2050) 10 yrs (2050-2060)

Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit



ASF

(

Accelerating.org

) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003)

exploring accelerating change in: 1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society (STBS), at 2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

  We practice

evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies,

a model of change that proposes the universe contains both:

1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future

and

2. Contingent and unpredictable developmental destinations.

evolutionary choices may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable we

Some

developmental trends

that may be

intrinsic

to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – –

Accelerating intelligence , interdependence

in our global sociotechnological systems and

immunity

Increasing technological

autonomy

, and Increasing

intimacy

digital interface.

of the human-machine and physical-

What is the Universe?

Your intuitions, please!

What is the Universe?

One current model: A ‘life-like’ system, engaging in both evolution and development.

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change “Experimentation”

Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search

Strange Attractors

Radiation “Natural Selection”

Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves, Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety

Mixed Attractors

Adaptation “ Convergent Unification”

Main Actor: Environment MEST Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization , ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization

Standard Attractors

Hierarchy Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change

New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’

Evo Devo (Inter section) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change

Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Some Key Conjectures: Evolution

is intelligence/information

accumulation

Development

is intelligence/information

preservation

Evolution

causes ongoing

unpredictability and novelty

Development

causes

cyclic predictability and stability

Evolution

drives most

Development unique local

drives most patterns.

predictable global

patterns.

Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.

The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both. Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.

Evolution vs. Development: Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and ‘small things’ are

unpredictably unique

in each twin. Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are

predictably the same

The Lesson:

(Predictable and conservative)

development

is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative)

evolutionary processes

Both are fundamental

to universal complexity.

More Questions, and a Research Community Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

 Are

evo

and

devo

both fundamental methods our universe uses to create and maintain

complexity?

 By analogy with two

genetically-identical twins

, would two

parametrically-identical universes

each exhibit

unpredictable

and unique evolutionary differentiation over their lifespan,

predictable

and at the same time

, a broad set of and shared developmental milestones, structure and function between them

 If so, can we

come to understand our universe

as an evolutionary developmental (evo devo) system

Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Evo devo theory argues for

process balance

in political dialogs on

Innovation

and

Sustainability Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates

sterility

, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates

chaos

, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).

Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Evo devo theory suggests that both

Republican Democratic

and platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each

integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Republicans

are

Devo

/Maintenance/Tradition on

Social-Political

Issues

Evo

/Innovation/Freedom on

Economic

Issues

Democrats

are

Evo

/Innovation/Freedom on

Social-Political

Issues

Devo

/Maintenance/Tradition on

Economic

Issues

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?

Your intuitions, please!

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?

A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand (evo devo) the universe from your perspective, and to form beliefs about those things you don’t yet understand.

‘Cosmic Embryogenesis’: Complexity Development in Three Easy Steps Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Geosphere/Geogenesis

(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis

(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Noosphere/Noogenesis

(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)

Pierre Teihard de Chardin (1881-1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist

The Phenomenon of Man

, 1955

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today?

Your intuitions, please!

What Aspects of Our Future Can We Reasonably Understand Today?

As in Living Systems, We Can Increasingly

Understand All the Developmental Aspects

of Our Future, But the Evolutionary Aspects are Perpetually Novel and Surprising.

Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit • AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms • Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems)

Expect

• Coming: dedicated DSPs on the desktop Conversational Interface (CI)

soon.

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Robo sapiens is on the Horizon

“Huey and Louey”

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down) Aibo Soccer

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025 Codebreaking

follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP

may as well.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista 2005 2.6 words 2012 5.2 words Google GoogleHelp 2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-human query length is

11 words.

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?

Nonverbal and verbal language

in parallel

is a much more efficient communication modality.

Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2002

Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:

 A time when computers “speak our language.”  A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.

 A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.

 A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.

In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.

No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (

Brian Arthur

, SFI)

Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.

Greg Panos (and Mother)

PersonaFoundation.org

Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

    Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s

Valuecosm

(Smart),

2030’s

- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Problem: Unsustainable Environmental Practices Long-Term Opportunity: Sustainability Economics Los Angeles New York Palo Alto First (and only) platinum-certified LEED building in AZ in 2007: ASU’s Biodesign Institute Canon’s WEEE Man

3.3 long tons of electrojunk (current average first world human elec. waste)

Shrink the man!

Problem: Violent Conflict Long-Term Opportunity: Reducing Global Violence Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit

Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence,” 2007       Civil society: 1) replaces anarchy with order, 2) increases value of life, 3) offers positive sum interactions, 4) expands one’s circle of empathy In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was

cat-burning.

Such atrocities could not be popular culture today.

20 th Century state war deaths of

100 million billion

(20X) if they had the would have been

relative mortality

of tribal warfare.

Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from

24 per 100,000

in the fourteenth century to

0.6 per 100,000

by the early 1960s. Battle deaths in interstate wars have declined from

65,000/yr in the 1950s

2,000/yr in 1990’s

See

Human Security Brief 2006

( www.humansecuritybrief.info/ )

Los Angeles New York

“A History of Violence,” Steven Pinker,

The New Republic Online

, 19 Mar 2007

Problem: Low Cost, Sustainable Energy Supply Longer-Term Opportunity: Solar Energy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Not yet a revolutionary platform at present:  10%-25% conversion efficiencies today. May need 50% efficiencies for significant “substitution” over fossil fuels.    High yield cells are not yet cheap or very environmentally friendly.

Before 1990’s, it may have taken more energy to create solar cells than they could generate in a lifetime (neg. energy payback). Energy paybacks on solar cells now range from

4-10 yrs.

Economic paybacks are still 3X this

(15-30 years)

We also need cheap solar energy

storage

systems (nanobatteries, flywheels, etc.)   

Germany

has greatest number of solar photovoltaic (PV) cell installations today.

Solar PV-electric likely to be cost competitive with coal-fired power plant electric in

2020’s We are in the last generation of ‘geostrategic’ energy politics.

See: Photon Consulting, 2007

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Problem: Water Supply Long-Term Opportunity: Desalination Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

Water use in Israel. Agricultural and residential efficiency innovations can deliver the most savings.

Desalinated water production gets

half as expensive

per cubic meter every

six years

(

LA Times,

2005) Reverse osmosis is one of several types of desalination technologies.

Annual desalination output in Abu Dhabi

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Problem: Gridlock in Growing Cities Longer-Term Opp: Underground Automated Hwy Systems Los Angeles New York Palo Alto

May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport (per passenger mile, once installed). No visual blight, reclaim surface real estate. Allows > 10X growth in our current traffic capacity in our leading cities, lower transit times and better safety than manual driving. Requires Intelligent and Zero Emission Vehicle’s (2025+) Number of tunnel boring machines are

doubling every three years

“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005

Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies?

Your intuitions, please!

Why Should You Engage in Foresight / Futures Studies?

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present. Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal Futures

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Global Futures Network: For Professional Futurists, Foresight Educators, and You!

A public, community-edited People , Orgs , and Resources directory for emerging global foresight culture.

FuturesNetwork.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto GFN

is your portal to the best

online social networks

(Shaping Tomorrow, GFN LinkedIn, GFN Facebook),

social groups

(ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS Chapters),

organizations, listserves, conferences, websites, periodicals, publications, etc.

for those interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!

FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators, Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Foresight Education and Research Network Los Angeles New York Palo Alto FERN

(

FERNweb.org

) is a global community for foresight/futures

educators

students

, and

advocates

of foresight education. It networks foresight

educators

, the

ten academic programs

in foresight/futures studies (offering credentials to become a foresight educator),

MS and PhD students and alums

, and helps develop open source

futures/foresight materials

courses

, and

new academic programs

globally.

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto EvoDevoUniverse.com

is a global community of

physicists

chemists

biologists

cognitive

and

social scientists

technologists

philosophers

, and

complexity

and

systems theorists

who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between

evolutionary (mostly unpredictable)

and

developmental (significantly predictable)

processes in the universe and its subsystems.

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.