Transcript Document

The Digital Self
When Social Media Gets Personal
NextTech
CHM  Mountain View, CA
Mar 2010
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
[email protected]
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
universe contains both:
1.
2.
Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
–
–
–
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Some change is:
• Experimentation (Evo)
• Adaptation/Selection (EvoDevo)
• Optimizing/Dominating (Devo)
Learn to tell the difference.
“Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
“Convergent Unification”
Radiation
Hierarchy
Main Actor: Environment
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
New Phase Space ‘Opening’
Development
Evo Devo
‘Right Hand’ of Change
(Intersection)
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
For more: Evodevouniverse.com/wiki/project
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb:
Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
▪ The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and
computation to create or control a complex system
(organism, organization, technology, species, society)
involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes.
▪ A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from
top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.
5% Devo
95% Evo
A few examples:
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dicty DNA) change often
to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%) which form
the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved.
▪ Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A very few
are fated to a particular location early in development.
▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organization will not persist. A
special few become stable strategies seen in all orgs of that type.
▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary
experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Are You Accelaware?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Free Energy Rate Density (Φ)
Substrate
(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Ecosystems, Plants
Animals (hum. body)
Brains (human)
Culture (human)
Modern Engines
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Pentium II of the 1990's
Global AI of the 21st C
0.5
2
75
900 (10^2)
20,000 (10^4)
150,000 (10^5)
500,000 (10^5)
10^5 to 10^8
10^10
10^11
10^12+
Los Angeles
New York
Cosmic
Palo Alto
Evolution, Eric Chaisson, 2001
Free energy rate density values in
hierarchically emergent CAS. © 2010 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
The curve is quite smooth
on a macroscopic scale.
And superexponential.
Note the “knee of the
curve” occurs circa 1850,
at the Industrial
Revolution.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD,
Angus Maddison, 2007
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Data grows even faster than processing power and storage.
All these grow slightly superexponentially, believe it or not.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Developing the algorithms to use all this power, storage, and data is the challenge.
For now, humans are by far the best algorithms we’ve got.
▪ Computer power and storage
double every 18-24 months.
▪ Created, captured and replicated
data doubles every 14-18 months.
▪ By 2011 we’ll be throwing away
half the digital data we generate.
▪ A flood of underused capacity in
processing, even more in data.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, John Gantz, IDC, 2008
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The J Curve
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
 Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
Examples:
▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)
▪ Global Economic Performance
▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation
Los Angeles
New
York
Accelerating
Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.
Palo Alto
As There is a Hype Cycle for Almost Any Technology:
Use “Other People’s Innovation” Wherever You Can.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
What
immature tech
products or
services do
you want to
bet on next?
As a
fast follower
or a pioneer?
Are you
too early
or already
too late?
Capacity/Impact

95% of the time, you want to be a second mover / “fast follower”. (Evo)
Jump in or buy companies at the trough (Big co. acquisition strategy).
5% of the time, you want to be a first mover / “pioneer”. (Devo)
Go early correctly and you’ll get lock-in (Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook…)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Cumulative Production/Experience (Not Time)
The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro, 2009; Mastering the Hype Cycle, Fenn & Raskino, 2008
© 2010 Accelerating.org
From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:
Evolutionary Development of the Web
Metaverseroadmap.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Web
Read Mainly (Graphical UI)
Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)
Metaverse
Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)
Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI
Metahumanity
‘Tech and Social Singularity’)
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Wearable Web:
24/7 Augmented Reality, Collective Intelligence
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
Los Angeles
Wearcam.org’s
New York
Palo Alto‘sousveillance’
first-gen
cams (2001)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational
Interface (CI): Circa 2012-2019
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Siri.com. Amazing
NLP for phones today.
Codebreaking
follows a logistic curve.
Collective NLP
may as well.
Date Avg. Query
1998
1.3 words
2005
2.6 words
2012
5.2 words
2019 10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
complex query is
8-11 words.
Los Angeles
Smart,
New York J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Halevy
Palo Alto et. al. 2009. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, Intell. Sys. 24(2):8-12.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language in
parallel is a much more efficient
communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2000
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Milo (and Milly): The Faces of Xbox Natal.
Conversational Avatars for Kids.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.
▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of
limited intelligence).
▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter
every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week.
▪ A time when serious games can get serious.
Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology.
A time when:
▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
our needs and desires.
▪ Humans and machines are intimately
connected, and always improving each other.
▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Symbiont Networks: The Extended Digital Self
A Post 2015 Emergence?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Web 3.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement era begins.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (geek symbionts, futurist
symbionts, Quaker symbionts, Shoppers United symbionts, etc.)
Los Angeles
Page,
New
York Scott.
Schools
and
Palo Alto
2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
Societies, Princeton U. Press.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Your Cybertwin – Your Digital Self:
Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction:
▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition… of you.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
PersonaFoundation.org
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The Digital Self:
Social, Economic, and Political Implications
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Some Challenges - particularly early:
 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The Digital Self:
Biggest Single Catalyst We’ll See in Our Lifetimes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
What Do You Want to Improve?
 IT/Infrastructure Mgmt
 Identity Management
 Social Networks
 Video Management
 Marketing
 Education
 Knowledge Management
 Performance Management
 Talent Management
 Innovation
 Social Responsibility
 Environmental Sustainability
 Organizational Development
 Collective Foresight
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Tablet Form Factor as a Developmental Optimum:
What Uses Do You Predict? Which Will Emerge Next?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet?
#1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Apple iPad: No Apple TV.
Too little, too closed.
Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best
multiuse design. June 2010


Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Will Google
get this done?
A perfect
YouTube front end.
There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands
more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.
25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally
or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.
Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary
screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Discussion