Transcript Evolution and Development, Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and the Values of Progress COSMOS 2011 UCSC  Santa Cruz, CA John M Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides:

Evolution and Development,
Accelerating Change,
Our Digital Future, and
the Values of Progress
COSMOS 2011
UCSC  Santa Cruz, CA
John M Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
universe contains both:
1.
2.
Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which constrain and
direct certain aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
–
–
–
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
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Evolution and Development
Two Fundamental Models of Change
Evolution and Development: Understand them in
Life, Understand them in the Universe
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Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:
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Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local
processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin.
Yet several key processes and ‘large things’ end up predictably the
same, due to special initial conditions and constant physical law.
So too with our universe?
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The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) developmental
process coexists and works with (unpredictable and creative)
evolutionary process to create universal complexity.
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Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
“Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism
Life Cycle, Growth Curves,
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
STEM Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Development
Evo Devo
(Intersection)
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb:
Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change
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▪ The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and
computation to create or control a complex system
(organism, organization, technology, species, society)
involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes.
▪ A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from
top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.
5% Devo
95% Evo
A few examples:
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▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dictyostelium DNA)
change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%)
which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved.
▪ Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A special few
are fated to a particular location early in development.
▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an org will not persist. A special few are
stable strategies in all orgs of that type, across many environments.
▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary
experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing.
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Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples:
Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification
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• ‘Quantum Darwinism’ in transition from quantum to classical
(relativity, thermo, mechanics) physics (Zurek 2005)
• Transition from chaotic/unpredictable to
probabilistic/predictable physical regimes (Eigen)
• Invariant vs. unpredictable emergences
in cellular automata (Wolfram)
• Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg)
• Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006)
• Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008)
• ‘Neural Darwinism’ in development (Edelman 1989)
• Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985)
• Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998)
• Cultural, ‘memetic’ selection (Dawkins, Aunger)
• Technological ‘technetic’ selection (Kelly 2010)
• Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza, Sipper)
• Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)
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Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes
Can Be Seen in All Complex Systems
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Three functional processes
(telos) can be observed in:
 Physical Systems
 Chemical Systems
 Biological Systems
 Societal Systems
 Technological Systems
 Our Universe as a System
Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either:
1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
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Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common
Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems
S curve
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Power law
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Normal curve
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‘Search Basins’ & ‘Portal Pathways’: Convergent Portal
Pathways Must Exist if Universal Development Operates
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Key Research Questions:
Are portals/bottlenecks that lead to increasing complexity plentiful or rare?
Are such portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly traversible?
Are such portals convergent, divergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?
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Crutchfield,
J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
Palo
Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
(eds.),
Portal Pathway for Complex Chemical Evo Devo –
Carbon Chemistry
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Genesis of Chemical Elements
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 Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and
Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles.
 Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS),
and both of the great oxidizers (oxygen and sulfur), are formed in the
small, third generation Population I stars, like our Sun
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Portal Pathway for Cells –
Lipids and RNA
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• Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells.
• RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors form on meteorites).
• Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water.
• Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde
• Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar
system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents.
• Sutherland et. al., by mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and
phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase)
• Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”)
destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U.
• RNA is today the only known heteropolymer (of 10M chem. species) that
can both reproduce and catalyze 3D construction (protein, via ribozymes)
• RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only stable nucleic acid.
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Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in
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prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Toward a Theory of Universal Development:
1. Virtual ‘Inner Space’
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Real structures in “outer space” (the physical world) are being modeled
ever better and faster in virtual ‘inner space’ (first human brains, now the
digital world). Once we have modeled them, we move on to other, more
complex domains. By comparison to inner space, outer space is:
• Computationally much simpler and more tractable (transparent)
• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
• A much older, “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
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~200 Bill. Unique Solar Systems
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~100 Trill. Unique Connections
Even More Unique Sims
of Scientific Simulations: From A-Life to Artificial Cosmogenesis, C. Vidal, 2008
Toward a Theory of Universal Development:
2. Physical ‘Inner Space’
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Science now talks about:
• Galactic Development
• Stellar Development
• Planetary Development
• Biosphere Development
• Organismic Development
• Socioeconomic Development
• Technological Development
Is there a developmental process
(selective pressure, advantage,
constraint) pulling leading complex
systems into Physical Inner Space
(ever-greater space, time, energy,
and matter density)? Perhaps!
We are still reluctant to talk quantitatively about:
• Macrobiological Development (Simon Conway-Morris)
• Moral/Political/Cultural Development (Ron Inglehart)
• Universal Development (John Stewart)
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Modeling development is hard, but quite important.
These are the processes that constrain us.
Fortunately, there don’t seem to be many of them.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Recognizing the Unique Contributions of
Infotech and Nanotech to Accelerating Change
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"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and
place to stand and I will move
the world." Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of
Alexandria, Synagoge, 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes,
with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the
world.” Thomas Jefferson, 1814
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Accelerating information, communications, and
nanotechnologies [in outer space] via the levers of
intelligence/adaptiveness [virtual inner space] and
miniaturization physics [physical inner space],
increasingly moves the world.
Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder, myself, others.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
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Seeing better foresight and
theories of universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists,
biologists, informational, computer, cognitive and social scientists,
technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists
who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental
(significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.
EDU 2008 (Paris, France) See archives.
EDU 2012 (Boston, MA) Join us?
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Smart, John. 2008 Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf
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Accelerating Change
Science and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter
Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity
World Economic
Performance
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GDP per capita in West Europe,
from 1000-1999 A.D.
- This curve is smooth and
superexponential on a very
long time scale.
- Note the “knee of the curve”
(state switch) occurs in 1850, at
the Industrial Revolution.
- Next, growth gets so fast it goes
vertical “wall of curve” in 1950.
- Such supergrowth signals
birth of a whole new stable
system (geo  bio  techno)
- Each way faster than prior sys.
Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD,
Angus Maddison, 2007
Moore’s Law and Mead’s Law, or
the Law of Miniaturization Efficiency (LME)
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Gordon Moore
Carver Mead
Moore’s Law. In1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computer
chips (processors, memory, etc.) were doubling in complexity every 12-24
months at constant unit cost.
If this continued (and it did) on average, affordable computing capacity
(memory, input, output, processing) grows by 1000X (ten doublings:
2,4,8,16,32…. 1024) every 15 years. A recipe for continual emergence!
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Mead’s Law. In 1967, Carver Mead discovered a Law of Miniaturization
Efficiency. Computer chip efficiencies increase by the cube (power of three)
of the reduction in scale. As transistor density goes up linearly in two
dimensions, this exponentially increases speed (less distance to travel)
computational power (speed × density), decreases power consumption,
increases system reliability, and decreases cost per unit. Wow.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Many Exponential and Superexponential ‘Learning
Curves’ in Human-Technology Systems
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The price/performance ratios of several productive processes in
computing, communications, and nanotechnology get
exponentially cheaper with cumulative manufacturing experience:
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Computing (Moore’s law, doubling time of 1.5-2 years)
Digital Storage – Hard and Flash Disks (Kryder’s law, 2 years)
Computer Graphics (polygon prod.) (Smith’s law, 2 years)
Wired Bandwidth (Gilder’s, Nielsen’s law, 2 years)
Wireless Bandwidth Growth (Cooper’s law, 2.5 years)
GPS- and Video-equipped Cellphone Growth (1.5 years)
Network Address Density (Poor’s law, 2 years)
Flat Panel Display Size (Nishimura’s law, 2 yrs)
Electronic Systems Miniaturization (5.4 years)
Algorithmic Efficiency (Ebrahimi’s law, 5-6 years)
Some learning curves are flat (battery density) all are bottlenecks
to breakthroughs (solar PV efficiency, desalination, etc.).
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The J Curve and the
“Tech Singularity”
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 First-Order Components are
Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
 Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
Examples:
▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)
▪ Global Economic Performance
▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation
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Socio-Technological Evol.: From Ephemeralization & Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.
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Larger Context for Moore’s Law: Superexponential Long-term Trends in Information Technology, Nagy et. al., 2010
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Four Alternative Growth Scenarios:
Jim Dator’s “Four Futures”
 Right wing
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 Left wing
Continuation
(Social Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Economic Issues)
 Up wing
Transformation
(Selective Issues)
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Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change
First two are Evolutionary (“Innovation”).
Second two are Developmental (“Sustainability”).
 Down wing
Decline & Collapse
(Selective Issues)
Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press.
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The Kuznets Curve (Inverted U Curves):
Why Things Often Get Worse First, Better Later
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Panayotou, T. 1993. “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental
Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development.”
Kuznets curves begin with Evolutionary Expansion, and end with
Developmental Consolidation that involves new Developmental
Hierarchy in the environment, returning the dependent system
variable to its pre-evolutionary state.
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X Axis Examples: GDP growth, city growth, industrialization, calculator growth,
video game growth, social network growth.
Y Axis Examples: Rich-poor divides, disease&pollution, labor exploitation&job
loss, innumeracy, illiteracy&desocializion, ignoring physical world, etc.
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Accelerating Change is Broadly Ignored By the
Scientific Community, Except for Tech Learning Curves
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Learning/Experience/Performance Curves (Moore’s Law, etc.) show
accelerating exponential or power-law increases in capacity or
efficiency over time. We’ve known about them since the 1930’s.
Santa Fe Inst has started the first online open PCDB
(2008, PCDB.SantaFe.edu). Such data
sets are critically important to understanding
accelerating tech change and convergence.
The SFI PCDB has a very small amount of NSF
funding at present. Feel free to donate!
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I think accelerating change has been ignored so long because:
- It looks too much like “progress,” a forbidden word in science, as
we have no “universal” theory of values or complexity. Yet.
- It looks suspiciously like (smooth, hierarchical, predictable)
complexity development, when the only dynamic that complexity
scientists are presently willing to discuss is (noisy, branching,
unpredictable) complexity evolution.
- A few physicists do see parts of development (e.g., 2nd law of
thermo (hierarchical decay), or Chaisson’s free energy work
(hierarchical acceleration). But we all know physicists are crazy.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Are You Accelaware?
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Free Energy Rate Density (Φ)
Substrate
(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies
0.5
Stars
2
Planets (Early)
75
Ecosystems, Plants
900 (10^2)
Animals (hum. body)
20,000 (10^4)
Brains (human)
150,000 (10^5)
Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5)
Modern Engines
10^5 to 10^8
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
10^10
Pentium II of the 1990's
10^11
Global AI of the 21st C
10^12+
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Eric
Chaisson,
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Cosmic Evolution, 2001
Free energy rate density values in
hierarchically emergent CAS.
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A Developmental Spiral?
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity?
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Teilhard de Chardin on Tech Acceleration:
The “Cephalization” or “Planetization” of Earth
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"No one can deny that
a (global) network of
economic and psychic
(mental) affiliations is being
woven at ever-increasing
speed which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
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Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition (‘Singularity’)
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Teilhard
de Chardin, Pierre. 1945. The Planetisation of
New York
Palo Alto1955. The Phenomenon of Man, Harper & Row.
——
Mankind In: The Future of Man, 1964.
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Our Digital Future
The Conversational Interface, the Cybertwin, and
the Valuecosm - How the Web and Individuals May Both
Get Much Smarter in Coming Decades, Both in Absolute
Terms and Relative to Corporations and Governments,
and Why That Matters to the Quality of Human Life
The Future of the Web (2007)
The Future of Internet TV (2010)
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Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)
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Smart, 2010 (48 pp)
http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf
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Five Generic Steps in Web Development
Metaverseroadmap.org
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Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Read Mainly - Graphical UI
Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI
3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI
Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,
Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI
Web
Metaverse
Metahumanity
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
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From 1996 to 2010, total internet users grew from 36 million to
1.9 billion, or from 1% to 27% of the world.
There were 1 billion PC’s (desktops, laptops, tablets) in use
globally in 2008, with a projected doubling to 2 billion by 2015, or
a compound AGR of 10% per year.
From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail (B2C) e-commerce, a
proxy for the virtual economy, grew from 5 million to $95 billion,
with 2009 global compound AGR of 11% per year.
By the end of 2011, 1 billion people, 16% of the world, is
projected to be on the web via smartphones, which grow at a
compound AGR of 14% per year.
Facebook, the worlds leading social software, has grown to 600
million users (one out of every 11 people on the planet) in 7
years, a marginal AGR of 100% per year.
Key Point: Think of the Virtual (Online, Metaverse) Economy
as the future, even more, much more, than “China as the future.”
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon
Open Internet TV Will Be a Killer App of Web 3.0
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Conversational Interface, Memeshows,
Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may as
well.
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Palo
Alto J.
Smart,
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Global Digital Transparency:
Result of a Networked Planet
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Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos,
movie clips, text messages, notes),
SenseCam and MyLifeBits (2003)
early examples of lifelogs, systems
for auto-recording, archiving
indexing, and searching all our
life experience, as it happens.
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Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.
Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all
this data begins turning into collective intelligence.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Virtual Space is Fastspace:
Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs
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MetaverseRoadmap.org
The Sims
Google Earth + Street View
Los Angeles Second Life
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• Rapid, interactive, multi-user
• Collaboration environments
(user-created content)
• Optimization environments
(GIS, automation, AI)
• More fun than older digital
media (games & VWs outsell
movies, now and forever).
• Still Bandwidth- and CPUlimited (not yet “hyperreal”).
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR
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Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
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First ‘Picturephone’
(AT&T 1970)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables:
Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games
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Half-Cave, 2010
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Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010
DriveSharp, 2010
Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language in
parallel is a much more efficient
communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2000
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology.
A time when:
▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
our needs and desires.
▪ Humans and machines are intimately
connected, and always improving each other.
▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Your Cybertwin (Digital Self):
Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Note the conflict between these two statements:
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction:
▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in
successive approximation, gentle integration,
subtle capturing and transition… of our selves.
When we can shift our conscious perspective
between our electronic and biological components,
the simulation and transcendence of the biological
should feel like only growth, not death.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Better Work and Collaboration:
Symbiont Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts,
Amish symbionts, etc.)
Los Angeles
Page,
New
York Scott.
Palo
Alto
Schools
and
2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
©©2009
2011Accelerating.org
Accelerating.org
Societies, Princeton U. Press.
Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization:
The Emerging Digital Self
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Some Challenges - particularly early:
 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The Values of Progress
Where Do We Want the World to Go, As Leaders?
Where Does the World Want Us to Go?
The Values of Progress (and Profit)
My Personal Take. What’s Yours?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolutionary Values (Local, Bottom-Up)
Competition/Independence/Personal Advancement
Innovation/Creativity/Experimentation/Freedom
Individuality/Diversity/Intuition/Subjective Truth
Adaptability Values (Mix)
Positive Sumness/Morality/Democracy/Capitalism
Resiliency/Immunity/Security
Intelligence/Awareness/Learning/Adaptive Ability
Developmental Values (Global, Top-Down)
Cooperation/Dependence/Harmony
Sustainability/Convergent Unification/Protection
Universality/Generality/Rationality/Objective Truth
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Smart, John. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick and Lupisella (eds) NASA Press.
Competition:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Growing Broadband
Access Gap (Wired and Wireless),
Due to a Lack of Competition (no
Meritocracy) in US & Australia, vs.
Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Canada,
Scandinavia, Germany, even UK!
- Monopoly and oligopoly telcos.
- Not a national priority for govt leaders.
- Policy delay tactics (fiber over wireless,
rural rollout same speed as urban)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Study leader nation’s models. Quantify the loss.
Corps: Demand better service. Fund reform politicians.
Individuals: Pay more. Work with small ISPs.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Innovation:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Lack of Innovation in
Electric Cars, a massive energy
efficiency and grid development
opportunity.
- Oligopoly automakers have no incentive to
innovate until someone takes 3-5% of the
market (Innovator’s Dilemma).
- Big barriers to entry for small firms
- Industry delay tactics (hydrogen over
electric, electrics over plug-in hybrids, plugin’s delayed and crippled vs. potential)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Quantify the loss. Subsidize factories, purchases.
Corps: Subsidize purchases, buy fleets from small mfg’s.
Individuals: Buy a Prius! Single best envir. decision avail.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Individuality:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Low Levels of Individual
Development in Our Educ. System,
a major national loss of creativity,
autonomy, productivity, & democracy.
- Kids will have 8-10 jobs. Lifelong learners!
- No opport. for personal experimentation
(Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style)
- Too much testing, too many nat’l standards
- Teachers w/ little educ., pay and freedom.
- Early tracking, no civics education.
- Poor integration of vocational & academic
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Copy successful nations (Finland Phenomenon).
Corps: More selective hiring. More training and lobbying.
Individuals: Use online charter schools & ed. networks.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Positive Sumness:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Tech Acceleration &
Globalization (MNCs) Create
Increasing Rich-Poor Divides, and
zero-sum or negative sum politics.
- Since 1950’s, corps are larger than govts.
- Over the last 40 years, top 5% and top 1%
have gained major wealth while middle class
has lost real wealth in most countries.
- Scandinavia, Europe, Canada and Australia
have all kept a lid on this, to varying degrees.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Trust busting, redistribution, progressive taxation.
Corps: More transparency, lower exec. pay multipliers.
Individuals: Buy goods from positive sum countries.
(Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.)
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Resiliency:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Disproportionate,
Uneconomical , and Non-Rational
Responses to Risks/Catastrophes.
- America’s ‘War On Terror’.
- Big bailouts in Global Financial Crisis.
- Ignoring most effective responses (efficiency,
alternative energy) to Global Warming
- Personal gain ahead of cost-benefit policy
- Valuing emotions and ideology over
evidence and proportionality.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Learn from biological immune systems.
Corps: Take an evidence-based approach to risk mgmt.
Individuals: Learn to save, self-insure, take personal
responsibility, fail often, lightly, & learn from failures.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Intelligence:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Lack of Enough BottomUp (Network and Individual)
Intelligence vs. Top-Down (Govt
and Corporate) Intelligence.
- Learned helplessness vs. recognition of
accelerating web and personal intelligence.
- Giving away our personal freedom and
power (growing the ‘Nanny State’).
- Brand hypnotism, no accounting for the
steep costs of bureaucracy and bigness.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Help power shift from hierarchies to networks.
Corps: Lead online, empower networks & customers.
Individuals: Be a digital activist. Improve the web, your
online networks, and your digital self.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Cooperation:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: More Global Coop, but
Less Ability and Desire to Form
Strong, Diverse Communities
Around our Unique, Local Values.
- Since 1920’s (mass consumption), we went
from many unique immigrant subcultures, to
one homogenized corporate culture.
- Since 1950’s, mass and centralized media,
+ standardized and weakening education =
withdrawal and apathy for local community,
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Build local, state govts. Take back power from feds.
Corps: Work with, help your local govts and communities.
Individuals: Use iTV, Facebook, Foursquare, Yelp. Local
Mkts, Foods, Products, and Services. e-Voting!
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Sustainability:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Global CO2 Increase, and
Lack of Sufficient Growth in
Sustainable Energy Solutions.
- A trillion barrels of oil in the ground. Those
who own it want to make $100 trillion.
- No political or big corp support for energy
sols. Must come from small co’s and public.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Efficiency is 90% of near term.
German solar power sys (10%).
Offshore floating wind (20%).
Thorium mini-nuke plants (post-2050?).
Corps: Start efficiency initiatives, work w/ efficiency co’s.
Individuals: Plant and keep alive 1-5 trees a year. Drip
irrigation. Invest in efficiency co’s. Solar thermal & PV.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Universality:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: We
Don’t Notice the
Development
Going On All
Around Us.
- Accelerating S&T.
- Econ development.
- Political development.
- Social development.
- Human development.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
More STEM Educ.
Tech Capacity focus
More Dev. Studies
We’re all heading toward Sweden, on our own
Wake up!
unique paths (see WorldValuesSurvey.org)
Discussion
What do you think?