Transcript Document

Our Immersive Future
Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For
ImTech 2010
Los Angeles, CA
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
[email protected]
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
universe contains both:
1.
2.
Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
–
–
–
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:
Evolutionary Development of the Web
Metaverseroadmap.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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New York
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Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Web
Read Mainly (Graphical UI)
Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)
Metaverse
Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)
Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI
Metahumanity
‘Tech and Social Singularity’)
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Six Tech Developments
Worth Fighting For
Video Cellphone, Tablet, and Laptop
Acceleration
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Wearable AR and Full AR Cellphone
Acceleration
Studies
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Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
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Wearcam.org’s
New York
Palo Alto‘sousveillance’
first-gen
cams (2001)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
Wearable LifeLog Cellphone
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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New York
Palo Alto
© 2009 Accelerating.org
iTV (True Internet Television)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet?
#1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.
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Apple iPad: No Apple TV.
Too little, too closed.
Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best
multiuse design. June 2010


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
Will Google
get this done?
A perfect
YouTube front end.
There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands
more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.
25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally
or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.
Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary
screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Third-Cave, Half-Cave, Game Table, and
Game Space
Acceleration
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Conversational Interface, Memeshows,
Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Smart,
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Six Social Developments
Worth Fighting For
Better Socialization and Intimacy
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▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.
▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of
limited intelligence).
▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter
every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week.
▪ A time when serious games can get serious.
Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)
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2009 Accelerating.org
Better Work and Collaboration
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts,
Amish symbionts, etc.)
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Page,
New
York Scott.
Schools
and
Palo Alto
2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
Societies, Princeton U. Press.
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Better Democracy and Civics
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Better Learning and Edutainment/Serious Games
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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What Do You Want to Improve?
 IT/Infrastructure Mgmt
 Identity Management
 Social Networks
 Video Management
 Marketing
 Education
 Knowledge Management
 Performance Management
 Talent Management
 Innovation
 Social Responsibility
 Environmental Sustainability
 Organizational Development
 Collective Foresight
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2009 Accelerating.org
Better Healing and Addiction Management
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Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Some Challenges - particularly early:
 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Closing Thoughts
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html