Transcript ILSNotreDame2009 - Acceleration Studies Foundation
Innovation, Learning, and Sustainability
A Framework for Thinking about the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change
Ten Years Hence Mendoza College of Business
Jan 2009
University of Notre Dame John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
ASF
(
Accelerating.org
) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003)
exploring accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society (STBS), at 2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis
.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice
evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies,
a model of change that proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future
and
2. Contingent and unpredictable developmental destinations.
evolutionary choices may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable we
Some
developmental trends
that may be
intrinsic
to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – –
Accelerating intelligence , interdependence
in our global sociotechnological systems and
immunity
Increasing technological
autonomy
, and Increasing
intimacy
digital interface.
of the human-machine and physical-
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in:
Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems
Our Universe as a System
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?
76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.
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GBN,
Future of Philanthropy
, 2005
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth?
Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997
, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60
th
largest country, and the 55
th
largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also
Top Heavy,
2002)
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?
Three minutes for Disney.
Twenty minutes for Sony.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Elizabeth Debold,
What is Enlightenment?,
March-May 2005
Our Topics 1. Foresight Development 2. Evolution and Development 3. The Evo Info Devo Triad 4. Our Global Goal: Sustainable Innovation 5. Accelerating Change 6. Automation and Tech Curves 7. 2020-2050 Scenarios
Foresight Development
What It Is and Why You Want It
Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto ● Foresight
, also known as
futures studies (FS)
is a transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to reliably improve one's ability to
anticipate
,
create
, and
manage
change.
●
It can be practiced in a variety of
domains
(scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political and societal), on a variety of
levels/scales
(personal, organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a variety of
disciplines
/
specialties
(theories and methods).
●
Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized world is a
difficult
yet
worthy
challenge.
Three Primary Foresight Domains: Futures, Development, and Acceleration
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Futures Studies
– “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change (scenarios, trends, strategy)
Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)
– Predictable and statistically irreversible change (emergences, phase changes)
Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)
– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes
Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Nevertheless, there are few primary academic programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years), and none in DS or AS (by name at least).
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Examples: Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
worldvaluessurvey.org
It may be that everyone ends up like
Sweden
, more or less.
Foresight Development: Twelve Types of Futures Thinking Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
\Fu"tur*ist\, n.
One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.
Social Types
Preconventional Futurist Personal Futurist Imaginative Futurist Agenda-driven Futurist Consensus-driven Futurist Professional Futurist
Methodological Types
Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist Evo-devo Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological Futurist
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto ASF’s Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties Primary Foresight Specialties
(
24
)
Alternative Futures Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Critical Futures and CLA Development and Acceleration Studies Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis Ethnographic Futures Forecasting and Modeling (basic) Foresight Frameworks and Foundations History and Analysis of Prediction Horizon Scanning and Competitive Intell.
Images of the Future Personal Futures/ Foresight Development Prediction Markets Predictive Surveys/ Delphi Roadmapping Scenario Development and Backcasting Scenario Planning Strategic Foresight Systems Thinking Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Weak Signals Wildcards Secondary Foresight Specialties
(
24
) Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment Cognitive and Positive Psychology Collaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict Studies Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Ethics and Values Studies Evolution Studies Forecasting and Modeling (advanced) Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Integral Studies and Thinking Investing and Finance (Long-Term) Leadership Studies and Organizational Developmnt Library Science, KM, and Decision Support Long-Range and Urban Planning Political Science and Policy Studies Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Science and Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt.
Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Strategic Planning Sustainability Studies
Other Foresight-Related Specialties
(
45, a partial list
) Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences | Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography | History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics | Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy | Tourism | Urban Studies
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Roy Amara's 3P's framework
can be used to group specialties that explore the
Possible
future (what could happen), the
Preferable
future (what we want) and the
Probable
future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans). This is also an
Evo Devo framework
, dividing foresight into "
Evolutionary
" (possible), "
Developmental
" (probable), and "
Evo Devo
" (preferable) futures.
Three Primary Foresight Skills Future Creation, Discovery, and Management
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable , and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create , discover , and manage (“CDM”) the future.
Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking
Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research
Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Cone of Possible Futures: Cultures of Foresight Continually Tell, Test, Sort, and Improve their ‘Stories of the Future’ Preferable Probable Present Plausible Implausible Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The Possible can be usefully divided into the Plausible and the Implausible. The Preferable always includes a little of both the Implausible and the Impossible.
Impossible © 2009 Accelerating.org
Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses in Foresight Development?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Tamkang University
27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in
Taiwan
Like history and current affairs,
futures studies
(15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.
Why not here?
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
University of Advancing Technology
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Dynamic Private University, Innovative Programs, Technology-Focused.
Tempe/Phoenix, AZ 1400 Students
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing technology to become innovators of the future. 14 Bachelors Degrees MS in Technology Studies MS in Artificial Life Programming
Evolution and Development
Two Fundamental Processes of Change
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto EvoDevoUniverse.com
is a global community of
physicists
,
chemists
,
biologists
,
cognitive
and
social scientists
,
technologists
,
philosophers
, and
complexity
and
systems theorists
who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between
evolutionary (mostly unpredictable)
and
developmental (significantly predictable)
processes in the universe and its subsystems.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evolution: A Tentative Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
stochastic
(random within constraints), creative, divergent (
variation creating
), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable. This
intrinsic unpredictability
may be our most useful
quantitative definition
and
discriminator
of evolutionary processes at all systems levels. Note:
Evolution is NOT natural selection
, in this definition. Its fundamental dynamic is
change and variation
(within constraints). It is a
creativity generator
, and thus a
precursor
to natural selection.
Example: Genetic drift in
neutral theory
(Kimura 1983; Leigh 2007).
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Development: A (Tentative) Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
directional
, hierarchical, constraining, convergent, integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and
statistically
predictable if you have the right
empirical
or
theoretical
aids. This
systemic predictability
may be our most useful
quantitative definition
and
discriminator
of developmental processes at all systems levels.
Development also has a
cyclical hierarchy
: birth, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling).
Note:
Development is NOT natural selection
, in this definition. It is
convergent unifier
, and thus a
specialized outcome
of natural selection.
Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity, evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity, scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe hypothesis
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others).
Recalling Teilhard ’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic embryogenesis, ’ if the Big Bang
acts like
a seed, and the expanding universe
like
an embryo, it must use both stochastic, contingent, and local/micro ‘adaptational’ processes—what we are calling
evolution
—in its elaboration of form and function, just as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo. Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable, convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of somatic (body) life —what we are calling
development
. If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
• In
genetically identical twins
, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, many
local, microscopic
processes are
unpredictably unique
in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many
global, macroscopic
processes are
predictably the same
.
• Would
parametrically identical universes
also be mostly and locally unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic similarities? This is a question for future simulation science.
The Hypothesis:
(Predictable and conservative)
development
is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative)
evolutionary processes
.
Both seem fundamental
to universal complexity.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe? – An Article
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
We can begin to model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary and developmental system as an
evo info devo universe
(abbrev.
evo devo universe
hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable,
evolutionary
features of universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and
developmental
universal trends, including:
Acceleration
in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen over the
last half
—but not the first half—of the universe’s history Increasing spatial and temporal
locality
development of universal complexity Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy
efficient
energy
dense
and matter and ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly
postbiological
(technological) systems of physical transformation and computation.
Smart, John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture. In:
Cosmos and Culture
, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model I Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Assumption: A universe of
information
(computationally complex patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with
evolution
and
development
as complementary modes of
information processing
in all complex adaptive systems, including the universe as a system.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II “Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Radiation “Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation “Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Self-Organization , Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
In fo (Evo Devo) (Inter section) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Examples: Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005) Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998) Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger) Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza) Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Some Key Conjectures: Evolution
is intelligence/information
accumulation
.
Development
is intelligence/information
preservation
.
Evolution
causes ongoing
unpredictability and novelty
.
Development
causes
cyclic predictability and stability
.
Evolution
drives most
Development unique local
drives most patterns.
predictable global
patterns.
Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both. Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.
Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe. © 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo devo theory argues for
process balance
in political dialogs on
Innovation
and
Sustainability Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates
sterility
, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates
chaos
, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo devo theory suggests that both
Republican Democratic
and platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each
integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Republicans
are
Devo
/Maintenance/Tradition on
Social-Political
Issues
Evo
/Innovation/Freedom on
Economic
Issues
Democrats
are
Evo
/Innovation/Freedom on
Social-Political
Issues
Devo
/Maintenance/Tradition on
Economic
Issues
© 2009 Accelerating.org
The Evo Info Devo Triad
Universal Values for Complex Systems?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II “Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Radiation “Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation “Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Self-Organization , Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
In fo (Evo Devo) (Inter section) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in:
Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems
Our Universe as a System
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Using the EID model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as
either
:
1. Info Systems
(making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems
(making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Info and Devo Systems
(keeping all three perspectives explicit).
Innovation, Learning and Sustainability: They Are Not Phases, But Lifestyles. Systemic Imbalances in Western Society Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
We think
Creativity
is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. We emphasize it only in the
first five years
of life, and don ’t try to develop it systematically during this phase or much after. Exceptions: Montessori, Waldorf.
We think
in Learning “school”
is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts and ends when we “graduate.” Nevertheless, we get no training for innovation and sustainability behaviors to come. Exceptions: Continuing ed, personality assessments, lifelong learning communities, policies, metrics, and tests.
We think
Sustainability
is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts when we graduate and
get a job
. It also takes a
very narrow view
of the term (org., economic and status quo ‘sustainability’). It neglects, not only personal, national and global sustainability, but also innovation and learning behaviors during and after our careers.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Foresight: Some Implications of the EDU Framework Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Our History, Present, and Future can be rewritten as: –
Evolutionary choices
(Evo, 95%),
developmental forces
(Devo, 5%) and the
Learning/Simulation increase
(Info, 100%) from their interaction Evo, Info, and Devo Teleology.
Innovation
,
learning
, and
sustainability
goals, drives, and values constrain humans and our tech,
and will constrain AIs to come
.
Sustainable Innovation
. Devo and evo polarized countries, parties, and people exist. We need
both
.
Seed, Org, Envir
(SOE)
Intelligence Partitioning
. – – Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy We need a
new theory of identity/intelligence Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Evo Devo Foresight: Some Implications of the Framework - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Hierarchy
and
Acceleration
. – – We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process.
Humans aren ’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’
STEM Compression
will continue on Earth – –
Human cities
will only get more STEM efficient/dense STEM dense tech (
nanotech
) will continue to deliver
unreasonable returns Inner Space
increasingly encompasses Outer Space – – – Increasing importance of the
human mind and heart
(education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the
virtual
, increasing
virtual-physical
and
human-machine
interface Importance of
‘gardening’ our technological extensions
(they are the next inner space), and
guiding their interaction
with the current inner space (human consciousness).
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Who Are You, In Relation to the Universe?
An Evo Info Devo Speculation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe, here to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand (info) the universe from your own perspective, and to form unproven beliefs (evo), tentative philosophy (info) and proven science (devo) about those things you don ’t understand.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Our Global Goal: Sustainable Innovation
A Universal Value Set?
The Costs of Accelerating Social Innovation: The Rise and Fall of Complex Societies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians) 6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.
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Rise and Fall: Nabatea
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan: trading experts, progressively wood-depleted overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994 Rock Hyrax (burrows are vegetation time capsules)
Rise and Fall: Anasazi
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200 CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde). No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.
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Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, CO
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion (Phase I: Near East-to-West)
Hellennistic (Alexander) Egyptian (New Kingdom) Babylonian
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British Spanish Austria Germany French Roman
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Empire Developmental Progression: (Phase II: America to Asia)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Japan (Temporary: Pop density, Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers (Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore) India American
China Expect a Singapore style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources, stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. Science is a strongly positive-sum game.
BHR-1, 2002
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier
Annual average GDP growth of 9.5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!) Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.
1.5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet.
” High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour 45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories in China 20,000 European Contract Factories 15,000 U.S. Contract Factories
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
World Population, 10,000 BC to 2000 AD: Birth and Growth
Positive feedback loop:
Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit World Population, 1950-2050: Maturing and Saturation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Big Question: If World Pop. is Saturating, & Energy Use Saturates with Income, Will Total Global Per Capita Energy Use Saturate?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
In biological systems, energy flow stabilizes when a developmental phase is completed.
When will the development of our cybertwins outcompete development of our planet ’s physical infrastructure?
When will per capita energy use become sustainability issue globally? It already is in sentinel countries like Switzerland (2,000-Watt Society).
( Ausubel, J.H. et. al. (1988) Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy . Climatic Change 12:245-263) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Climate Sustainability and “Renewistan”: A Collossal Undertaking Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Avg global citizen uses
2,000 watts
. Europeans
6,000 watts
. Americans
12,000 watts
.
Preindustrialization Atmospheric CO2: 296 ppm. Today: 385 ppm.
Global TPES 16 tera(trillion)watts. 85% of this is fossil fuels, 15% renewables.
What would limit increase to 450 ppm (and est. 2 °C temp increase?) To stop us at 450 ppm we’d have to reduce fossil fuel use to 3 terawatts by 2035. We presently get 0.5 tw from hydro, 1 from nuclear.
Renewable Energy “Wedge Strategy” Commitments If No Other Strategies:
2 tw from photovoltaic: “100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells installed
every second
(30,000 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from solar thermal: “50 square meters of 30-percent-efficient systems installed
every second
(600 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from wind: “One 300-foot-diameter wind turbine
every five minutes
(105,000 turbines/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from geothermal: “Three 100-megawatt steam turbines
every day
(1,095 turbines/year x 25 yrs).” 3 tw from nuclear: “A three-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week (52 plants a year x 25).” The land area needed for all these renewables
(“Renewistan”)
would occupy an
area the size of Australia
and involve
multi-trillion dollar
global commitments.
Brand, S. (2009)
Saul Griffith
, “Climate Change Recalculated,” Long Now Blog.
Morrow, K.J. (2008) Switzerland and the 2,000-Watt Society,
Sustainability
1(1):32-33.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Socolow Wedges and Climate Mitigation: Fortunately a Range of Other Strategies Also Exist Los Angeles Pacala S and Socolow R (2004) Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies, Science 305(5686):968-972.
Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity)
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
When per capita GDP reaches: • $3,000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, • $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, • $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, • $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy.
Later developers, using
“leapfrogging technologies”,
require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP .[1]
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Alternative measure:
In recent decades, global energy consumption has been growing increasingly slower than GDP (1% 1.5% ??).
[2] 1.
Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050,
Shell Intnat’l, 2001; 2.
Exploring and Shaping International Futures
, Hughes and Hillebrand, 2006, p. 29.
Saturation Example: Total World Energy Use
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto DOE/EIA
data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation
Royal Dutch/Shell
notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures.
Steve Jurvetson
the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in
half
notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Expect such
STEM efficiencies
in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy effective in ways very few of us currently understand.
Tech Development: Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Li-Ion Nanobattery 80% recharge in 60 seconds
80X
faster recharge (hi amp).
Duty to 2,500 vs 500 cycles
5X
increase in duty length Better at temp extremes Cost competitive Toshiba (2005) A123/De Walt (2008) What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps (FCS) Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ―
William Gibson Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen., Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component.
180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only.
Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds, keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging almost as fast as gas tank filling. Tomorrow's capacitance-enhanced power grids have the ability to be even more decentralized than today's gasoline stations. Such decentralization will support even greater city densities.
“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006
Innovation, Patents, and Policy in Large vs. Small Companies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless: a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence) Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.
Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).
Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait” Some Solutions: Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry Mandate tough and increasing performance standards Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.
Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs Promote corporate transparency Promote public stock ownership Toyota’s 1/X Concept Car (2007) 1/3 the weight 2X the fuel efficiency of the Prius
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose (2000) and Microvision (2003)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).
Great U-Turn: Re-emergence of Class Society in the U.S.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Wage and salary earnings reflect shared prosperity
through 1972
. Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.
Percent Change in Earnings Since 1961 Tabulations of annual March Current Population Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality
Less Proficient Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
America’s Perfect Storm
, ETS, 2007
More Proficient
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative, So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Central Paradoxes of an Evo Devo Planet: Sustainable Innovation and Creative Destruction Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
S-Curves and Creative Destruction
New Old Europe (Network 1.0) Newly Creatively Destructive New Asia (Network 1.0) Very High CD Index Spain ’s Recent Creation of Two Tier Workforce. “McJobs” Under 40). (20 5% Unemployment) Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax) Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, etc.
United States (Network 0.8) 50% CD Index Japan (Network 1.0) Old Europe (Mfg 3.0) Low/Very Low CD Index 50% of top 25 companies no longer top after 25 years.
We are IT-challenged vs. Asia Germany (13% unemployment) Italy (11% unemployment) France (10% unemployment)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
“Green Flyer” Sustainable Mobility Innovation Super Shuttle + Comfort Cab + Amenities Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Marketing
“
The door-to-door airline alternative
.” “
Your inner and inter-city shuttle bus. For trips 8 hours or less
.” “Free Wi-Fi, Movies, and First Class Sleeper/Work Seats.” “1/3 the cost, 5X better passenger MPG. Handle your own luggage gently.” “No ripoffs for last minute bookings. No cellphone/laptop bans. No TSA!”
Details
Dodge (Mercedes) Sprinter conversions (like UPS conversion above).
Super Shuttle automation (GPS and computerized routing systems).
210 passenger mpg
(avg. 140 for buses,
40 for planes
, 35 for solo cars).
Five doors/side, nine passengers, each in visually separable compartments Four point harnesses (so you can sleep in a reclining position).
Air shocks, seat shocks, and seat springs (3 layers of vibration insulation) Luggage stored directly above you, viewable through roof and lockable.
Natural gas (60% of CO2, 80 cents less / gal. equiv).
Proofs of Concept: Megabus, CA Shuttle Bus.
Deserves Federal Leadership (Subsidies, Initial Marketing) Tens of billions
in annual consumer savings, efficiencies.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Analyzing Change: Look at Both Explicit Sectors and their Implicit ILS Capacities ‘Implicit’ (Capacity-Based, Cognitive) Systems Infrastructure & Knowledge (Technical & Social I & L Capacity) Power & Wealth Structures (Political & Economic I & L Capacity) Aspirational Values & Needs (Laws,Goals,Norms) Actual Values & Needs (Culture,Behavior) (Science &) Technology Economy Governance Demographics ‘Explicit’ (Tech, Econ, Politics, Society) Systems Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
John Stutz, Tellus Institute, 2008
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Innovations and Learning that May Take Us to the Next Level of Sustainability Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Science, Technology, Engrg, & Math (STEM)
A
national report card
on “
Technical Productivity
” growth. Far more important than GDP growth. We are “taxing the machines” (Faraday)
far more
than each other. Our annual National and Global growth in
real technical wealth
important than growth in abstract economic wealth. Money is fiat, fickle and a proxy. Technical productivity/ intelligence is concrete. It is our is far more
primary survival variable
.
Economy
Dethrone Wall Street. improve access to
70-80% of our economy is private business private equity markets
, which need not be short-term and growth-at-all-costs oriented, (public companies). Democratize/ , social responsibility investing. 50% corp. tax reduction for US manufacturing. Require use of Other People’s Money by public corps to include invest. by corp. mgmt (skin-in-the-game). More corp. transparency.
Governance
Accelaware
govt leadership. Tie global development to
zero (intrinsic) population growth
and tech productivity growth metrics. Revisit the constitution once a generation (Jefferson).
More representative democracy
parliamentary model). Politicians must fundraise 80% from (represent) their own districts, no prior campaign war chests, two-term limits. (no electoral college, more
Demographics
Immigrate!
Three million / yr x 40 yrs.
and second gen. immigrants make the US pop. 400 500M in 2050. End the “lazy politician’s immigration system” currently in effect. Close the border, give easy asylum path for current illegal immigrants. Expand and clarify immigrant classes (guest worker, resident alien, citizen). Make 50% meritocratic. Allow many formal paths to citizenship (standard, PhD, business creation, political asylum, etc.). First
small businesses
,
learn and innovate harder.
Recognize them for these natural advantages.
© 2009 Accelerating.org