Transcript Document

Metaverse 2.0
The Informational, Social, and Cognitive Heart
of our Accelerating Future
H+ Summit 2009
EON  Irvine, CA
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
[email protected]
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes
the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to
these highly probable developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
–
–
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
University of Advancing Technology (UAT)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Dynamic, Inspiring Private University,
Innovative Programs,
Tech-Focused, Accelaware
Tempe/Phoenix, AZ
1400 Students
Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing
technology to become innovators of the future.
14 Bachelors Degrees
3 MS Degrees: Technology Studies, Emerging Tech,
Artificial Life Programming
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Foresight Development (TCH 110)
A Required Undergrad Foresight Course at UAT
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Foresight Development is:
Futures Studies Education plus
Personal Foresight Skills Practice
Course Description:
Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course teaches better global, business and
personal foresight to better enjoy and manage your own future. We will explore the big picture
history of accelerating change from universal, historical and technological perspectives, as well
as identifying global trends that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments.
Additionally, the course will examine how organizations make bets on the future and gives the
student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally, discussion of how
biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder personal thinking about the future
will be discussed. We will articulate and explain the four fundamental foresight processes:
innovating the future (creative development of products and services); planning the future
(developing shared goals and processes); profiting in the future (achieving measurable positive
results, including environmental, social, and economic benefits); and predicting the future (trend
identification and analysis). Assignments will be personalized to your own foresight goals, and
will include brief readings, brief writing, discussions, debates, visuals, film, podcasts and games.
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Classifying Transformative Tech:
The NISCB Tech Pentad
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Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno (NBIC) convergence was a good start, but it overlooks
Social convergence. The NISCB pentad fixes that, and arranges these
systems “fastest first”, from most rapidly to least rapidly complexifying:
Nanotech
Infotech
Sociotech
Cognotech
Biotech
NI is the “trans” and SCB the “humanism” in transhumanism. We have
moral responsibilities for all tech, but they differ in their intrinsic rates
of complexification, and in their relation to the self.
We directly experience SCB change as part of our biological identities,
and externally experience NI change, which we create and discover.
Of the three techs we directly experience, SC are the easiest to change
(our social choices and relations, our thoughts, emotions, attitudes).
This is why SC is the heart of humanism. What we care most about.
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We are most essentially social-cognitive creatures, using all our tech to
“niche construct” our planet, like beavers, termites, or bees.
See Cascio, Jamais. 2009. The Singularity and Society. Fast Company.
STEEP to STEEPS to STEEPSOP to SNISCBEEPSOP:
Developing an Accelaware Set of Foresight Categories
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Science (Theoretical, Applied, Prof., Sci. Ed, Sci. Policy)
Tech – Nano & Macrotech
Tech – Infotech
Tech – Sociotech
Tech – Cognotech
Tech – Biotech
Environment (Sustainability, Resources, Impacts, etc.)
Economics (Capitalism, Biz-Law, 3BL Accounting, etc.)
Politics (Military, Security, Policy, Non-Biz Law, etc.)
Society (Culture, Media, Education, Religion, Art, etc.)
Organizational (Entrepreneurship, Mgmt, Org Dev, etc.)
Personal (Relationship, Career, Family, Spirituality, etc.)
All
12 categories are important to foresight development and change management. The first three,
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Science,
New
York Nanotech, and Infotech, seem to be “universal pulls” toward accelerating complexification. All
the Alto
rest are enablers, shapers, or blocks to that acceleration. Scan with them all to see the big picture.
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NISCB Tech - In Detail
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Nanotech and Macrotech
“Nano”: Macroengineering, Microengineering & Nanoengineering, Physics,
Chemistry, Energy, Resources, Agric., Cleantech, Manufacturing, Space…
“The leading edge of all Macrotech is Nanotech. (Physical effic. or density incr.)”
Infotech
“AI” (Narrow and General Artificial Intelligence): Computing, Networks,
Databases, Sensors, Automated Robotics, Conversational Interface, Cybertwins,
Underground Automated Highway Systems…
Sociotech
“IA” (Intelligence Amplification): Tech+Policy with Quantifiable Positive Sum
Benefits for Society: Clothing, Democratic Capitalism, Subsidized Solar, Social
Networks, P2P Media, iTV/Personalized Ed, Valuecosm …
Cognotech
“Mind”: Neuropsych (dev. psych, Ed. tech, behav. economics, expert
performance), Psychiatry, Neuropharm, Meditation, Crit. Thinking, Brain Games,
Consc. Monitoring, Symbiont Networks, New Age Hooey/Placebo Effects …
Biotech
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“Body”: Medicine, Public Health, Nutrition and Diet, Biotechnology,
Bioinformatics, Genetics, Mol. Bio, Prosthetics, Implants…
Beware NIB, Our Transhumanist Community’s Historical Bias
Nanotech Infotech Biotech stories are “Not In Balance”!
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We transhumanists love thinking about NIB, three techs on the "extremes" of the NISCB pentad:
We love the molecular assembler, nanofabber and nanobot visions of Nanotech.
We love general artificial intelligence (AI) (vs. intelligence amplification (IA)) in Infotech.
 We love genetic engineering, neuropharmacology, and superlongevity in Biotech.
But these are all seriously oversold and likely to be persistent underperformers for the next 20-30 years.
 Assemblers are hard! Drexler (2004) is now thinking vacuum phase (Drexler vs. Smalley debate) because we
don’t have a clue how to do them in liquid. Even though that’s what cells do, and supramolecular synthetic chemistry
is what we’d want (e.g., an organometallic soup as feedstock for a fab). The elephant in the room is the entropy
accumulation problem. Until we figure out bio-inspired, error-correcting systems, nanotech can’t develop much past
materials science. Read David Berube, Nano-Hype, 2005, + Blog and Richard Jones, Soft Machines, 2008 + Blog.
 Nanobots? We don’t even have serious microfluidics or labs on a chip yet. Nanofabbers? Nanofabrication is a
collection of capital- and skill-intensive chip industry and lab bench R&D processes. Let’s be honest. We don’t even
have low-cost prototyping or low-volume macromanufacturing options yet, much less micro- or nanomanufacturing.
Let’s focus on growing the DIY / Maker / Open Source / Open Innovation / Open Science communities, and helping
maker labs like TechShop (founded 2006) or Noisebridge (2008) overcome the many blocks (liability, financial,
marketing, political) to spreading beyond n=1.
 General AI is a conundrum inside several enigmas. We don’t understand the brain yet (memory, learning,
consciousness), let alone have a good idea how to make an artificial one. Let’s crack LTP, signaling, neural
synchronization, and a host of other juicy mysteries in neuroscience before we meow about building “Cat Brains.”
More reality, please! Read Dennis Bray, Wetware, 2009 to appreciate all the nonlinear and emergent computation in
just a single cell. Read Moshe Sipper, Machine Nature, 2002 to get a sense of the bio-inspiration and parallelism our
hardware will need before it can bootstrap to higher functions. Barely even on the 30 year horizon, in my opinion.
 Genetic engineering in humans? Humbug, unless you’ve got a single gene disease. We aren’t even sure about it
in our foods. Read Denise Caruso, Intervention, 2006. Neuropharmacology? All drugs, including SSRI’s are global,
top-down tech that burns out (excitotoxicity, as in meth brain) your delicate, bottom-up regulated brain. A little burnout
may be therapeutic, but it’s still degradation, not enhancement. Longevity past 120? Not unless you can magically
stop cellular entropy in dozens of pathways (no nanobots available, sorry). Let’s get serious about getting people to
120 instead, with veganism, optimal nutrition, methionine restriction, big lowering of HbA1c and inflammation. Dirt
cheap blood tests, implants. All our “silver bullets,” like resveratrol, are just silver bb’s (mild positive effects, and only
in the right dosage). Major dietary and lifestyle improvements will happen only in the age of p2p media, symbiont
networks, cybertwins, and implantable telemetry (quantified metabolic self). So let’s make these happen now!
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We have to get back to the IA story in Sociotech, and neuropsych in Cognotech, the "heart" of the NISCB
pentad, to understand the major social issues and the many disruptive (and profitable!) near-term advances ahead.
Jim Dator’s Four Futures: Each Have Value
They Also Represent Four Classic Political Dialogs
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Right wing
Continuation
(Economic Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Social Issues)
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Left wing
Continuation
(Social Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Economic Issues)
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Up wing
Transformation
(Selective Issues)
Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change
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Down wing
Decline & Collapse
(Selective Issues)
Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press.
Are You Accelaware?
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Free Energy Rate Density (Φ)
Substrate
(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Ecosystems, Plants
Animals (hum. body)
Brains (human)
Culture (human)
Modern Engines
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Pentium II of the 1990's
Global AI of the 21st C
0.5
2
75
900 (10^2)
20,000 (10^4)
150,000 (10^5)
500,000 (10^5)
10^5 to 10^8
10^10
10^11
10^12+
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Eric
Chaisson,
Palo Alto
Free energy rate density values in
Cosmic Evolution, 2001
hierarchically emergent CAS.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
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GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
quite smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
Note the “knee of the
curve” occurs circa
1850, at the Industrial
Revolution.
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Kevin Kelly is Accelaware
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What
Technology
Wants
1995
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Kevin’s Blog. Read it.
2010
Accelerating Change is Broadly Ignored By the
Scientific Community, Except for Tech Learning Curves
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Learning/Experience/Performance Curves (Moore’s Law, etc.) show
accelerating exponential or power-law increases in capacity or
efficiency over time. We’ve known about them since the 1930’s.
Santa Fe Inst has started the first online open PCDB
(2008, PCDB.SantaFe.edu). Such data
sets are critically important to understanding
accelerating tech change and convergence.
The SFI PCDB has a very small amount of NSF
funding at present. Feel free to donate!
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I think accelerating change has been ignored so long because:
- It looks too much like “progress,” a forbidden word in science, as
we have no “universal” theory of values or complexity. Yet.
- It looks suspiciously like (smooth, hierarchical, predictable)
complexity development, when the only dynamic that complexity
scientists are presently willing to discuss is (noisy, branching,
unpredictable) complexity evolution.
- A few physicists do see parts of development (e.g., 2nd law of
thermo (hierarchical decay), or Chaisson’s free energy work
(hierarchical acceleration). But we all know physicists are crazy.
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
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Improving foresight through
better theories of universal
change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists,
biologists, informational, computer, cognitive and social scientists,
technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists
who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental
(significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.
EDU 2008 (Paris, France) See archives.
EDU 2011 (Brussels, Belgium) Join us?
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Smart, John.
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2008 Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture.
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf© 2009 Accelerating.org
‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’:
Developmental Portal Pathways Must Exist
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Key Research Questions:
 Are portals/bottlenecks that lead to increasing complexity plentiful or rare?
 Are such portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly traversible?
 Are such portals convergent, divergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?
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Crutchfield,
J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
New
York
(eds.),
Palo Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
Portal Pathway for Complex Chemical Evo Devo –
Carbon Chemistry
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Genesis of Chemical Elements
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Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and
Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles in
liquid phase.
Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS),
and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in the
small, third generation (Population I) stars like our Sun
Portal Pathway for Cells –
Lipids and RNA
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Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells!
RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors form on meteorites).
Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water.
 Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde
 Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar
system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents.
 Sutherland et. al., mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and
phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase)
 Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”)
destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U.
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RNA is today the only known heteropolymer (of 10M species!) that can
both reproduce itself and catalyze 3D (protein) construction (ribozymes)
RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine
ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Evolutionary Convergence to the Superorganism?
The stunningly niche-dominant social insects
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Why are only 2% of the 900,000 insect
species social insects?
Why does this 2% weigh more than
the mass of all other insects combined
(and is even 80% of all animal biomass
in the Amazon rainforest)?
Escalation of power/mass/intelligence
in competition (Evolution and
Escalation, Vermeij)
Eusocial species use both social and
individual levels of computation
(Lucifer Principle, Bloom).
Competitive exclusion once the
social computation niche is occupied.
Do social insects cause most insect
extinctions (invasion theory)
Are humans now doing the same thing
as the social insects before us?
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’
a Human-Machine Superorganism
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Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other
social animals are parts of “superorganisms.”
Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the environmental
structures their genetics and memetics compel them to construct.
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New York
Stock,
Palo Alto Greg.
Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell-organismsupercolony.
1994. Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global
Teilhard on Technological Acceleration:
“Cephalization” / “Planetization” of Earth
Acceleration
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Foundation
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
Los
Angeles de Chardin, Pierre. 1945. The Planetisation of
Teilhard
New York
Palo Alto1955. The Phenomenon of Man, Harper & Row.
——
Mankind. The Future of Man, Image, 2004.
The Metaverse
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The Metaverse is Neal Stephenson's (Snow Crash, 1992) incisive term for
a world where the virtual and digital intimately pervades, encapsulates,
and ultimately surpasses physical reality.
As adults, we run novel simulations of reality in our heads, in virtual
space, far more than we engage in novel activities in physical space.
“Life simulates massively, cuts once.”
Our computers are rapidly learning to do the same, with huge
implications for the future. While its 3D aspects are the first that come to
mind, the Metaverse includes all the 1, 2, 2.5, and 3D digital platforms we
use on our global Participatory Web, as we collectively prime it to take the
next big leap in its intelligence (to the semantic web).
These platforms include search (Google, Wolfram Alpha, Bing), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Loopt), microblogging (Twitter), collaboration environments
(Google Wave), videoconferencing (Skype Video), games and virtual
worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars
(Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), and augmented reality (QR
codes, Wikitude).
Collectively, these services are much more a story of human intelligence
amplification (IA, Sociotech) than of artificial intelligence (AI, Infotech),
which, though it improves itself at a faster marginal rate, has seen much
more limited impact on society to date. (Smart, J. et.al. 2007. MetaverseRoadmap.org)
From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:
Evolutionary Development of the Web
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Web 1.0: Read Mainly (Graphical UI)
Web 2.0: Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)
Metaverse 1.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Web 3.0: Semantic (Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm, CI)
Metaverse 2.0
Web 4.0: Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI
Social Singularity/Metathinking/Metahumanity)
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process that human society has ever engaged in.
As biologicals, this may also be our last great job description.
Are you doing your job? Are you on social networks, on a smartphone,
on the cloud (G-office), on open source software, yelping, blogging,
tweeting, commenting, and helping to build the global semantic map?
Are you subsidizing metaverse innovation (rather than convenience)
with your time, energy, and dollars? Are you a pioneer? Pioneers take
arrows in their backs. They are tough sons of bitches with vision.
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Miemis, Venessa. 2009. A Metathinking Manifesto. Emergentbydesign.com
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). MetaverseRoadmap.org
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality
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Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
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Wearcam.org’s
New York
Palo Alto‘sousveillance’
first-gen
cams (2001)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the
Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Palo Alto J.
Smart,
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward. © 2009 Accelerating.org
Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age
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A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
A
time when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
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© 2009 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2020?
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Nonverbal and verbal language in
parallel is a much more efficient
communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.
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“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2002
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
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Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Cybertwin)
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“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition… of you.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Consciousness as Neural Synchronization:
From the Cybertwin to the Cyberself
Acceleration
Neural synchronization, the phase-synched oscillation of populations of
Studies
in both near and non-adjacent brain regions is an emergent phenomenon
Foundation
neurons
of action
Laura Colgin,
Apotentials
501
Nonprofit and feedback. Scholars, including Francis Crick, Christof Koch,
Kavli Inst. Postdoc
J.A. Scott Kelso and others have long proposed neural synch as the “language”
of feature binding (neural binding, architectonics), the substrate where autonomous
and integrated thoughts make our highest-order perception, attention, and consciousness.
(c)(3)
Laura Colgin has recently found a two state Gamma Oscillation Switch in rat hippocampus: “This
switch mechanism points to superfast routing [10 to 100 ms, which is much faster than the 300+ ms
speed of consciousness] as a general mode of information handling in the brain. The classical view
has been that signaling inside the [mammalian] brain is hardwired, subject to change only by
modification of connections between neurons. We believe that the gamma switch is a general
principle of the brain, employed throughout the brain to enhance interregional communication.”
She speculates that one of these oscillations, slow gamma (25-50 Hz), reads memories from
neural stores, and the second, fast gamma (65-140 Hz), encodes working memory (present
perceptions). Thus these two oscillations, together with other supporting processes, may be the
physical substrate of our highest unconscious and conscious thought and perception.
What does Neural Synch Imply for the Long-Term Future of the Cybertwin?
Imagine future brain implants capable of neural synchronization with external artificial neurons, in
both of these states. This gives you the ability to not only have external thinking prosthetics (a
neural cybertwin) but even to shift your consciousness (memories and perceptions) between
your biological and cyber components. You now have not just a cybertwin, but a cyberself, a self
that is both an extension and to some extent a copy of you. When your bioself dies, it will feel
to your cyberself like change, not death. You will have uninterrupted consciousness!
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HowYork
the Brain Filters out Distracting Thoughts to Focus on a Single Bit of Info. ScienceDaily, 11.23.09
New
Colgin
Palo
Altoet. al. Frequency of gamma oscillations routes flow of info. in the hippocampus. Nature, 2009; 462 (7271):353.
Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
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Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Advent of the Cybertwin, Circa 2020:
The Biggest Single Change We May See In our Lifetimes!
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Consider the implications for:
 Subculture Diversity and Representation (goes up)
 Global Comm and Collab (minimal language barrier)
 Digital Divide (disappears)
 Accountablity of Powerful Actors (goes up)
 Data Security and Privacy (gets worse, then better)
 Crime and Fraud (gets worse, then better)
 Public Relations Manipulation (worse, then better)
 Reputation Systems and Transparency (much better)
 Socio-Economic-Political Democracy (must improve)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 Personal Empowerment (20% of us?)
 Entertainment and Dependency (80% of us?)
Symbiont Networks: A Post 2015 Emergence?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts,
Amish symbionts, etc.)
Los Angeles
Page,
New
York Scott.
Schools
and
Palo Alto
2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
Societies, Princeton U. Press.
What are the bottlenecks (sci-tech deficits, socialecon-political blocks) to accelerating progress?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“As fast as tech moves, people move at the same slow, cautious
pace they always did. If anything, people have gotten more
cautious, more afraid of change, more skeptical, more cynical.”
– Dean Kamen, 2008
[To create a global innovation economy] should we be doubling
the speed [of computers] or doubling the numbers of people who
have access to information?
– Dean Kamen, 2009
And also doubling the…
 Educational content in open-access databases?
 Sophistication of free cloud-based education systems?
 Funded competitions (HS on up) for new ideas products solutions?
 (Immigrant and endemic) scientists, engineers, and students?
 Critical, rational, and normative thinking programs?
 Social, economic and political models, data, and policy analyses?
 Triple bottom line (financial, social, envir) accounting uses?
See Brigis, Alvis. 2008. The Social Will to Accelerate. Memebox.com.
Network with Your Favorite Foresight Affinity Groups
Do More Of It this Year!
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Membership organization,
magazine, conference.
Start a free public
Future Salon! Now
in 15 cities globally.
FutureSalon.com
Membership org,
e-news, conference.
WFSF.org
Membership org,
e-news, conference.
Profuturists.org
Social network of foresight students,
educators, researchers, employers, alums,
and advocates. FERNweb.org
Attend our Foresight Careers conference!
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
http://futurecamp.ning.com Join us for a week of future salons, talks, and hanging out in BRC!
Ping [email protected] for an invite, tell us about your foresight interests and activities.
Appendix
(Can’t Cover This Today,
But Transhumanists Should Keep This in Mind…)
Bio vs. Tech, or Monkey vs. Robot
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
You know you wanna watch this.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Engineering Smartness is Very Hard to Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit


Los Angeles
New York
Domestic
Palo Alto
“Doogie Howser” Mouse. Extra copies of NMDA receptor 2B
(NR2B) improved long term potentiation (LTP). They had
better memories but were more neurotic (sensitive to pain).
Intelligence breeding in hunting dogs, horses, and other domestics has
had very little effect vs. wildtype animals (“dumb” Pointer vs. Wild Dog).
All neuropharmacology always has a strong dose response and
receptor downregulation, and it all causes long-term damage.
Some of this damage is adaptive (anxiolytics, antidepressants, etc.)
Pointer
African Wild Dog
The Limits of Top-Down Control:
Growth Genes and Antagonistic Plieotropy
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Clip a promotor for a growth hormone gene into …
a frog and you will get a bigger frog
a mouse and you get a bigger mouse with growth
dysregulation, including cancer
a pig and you get the same-sized pig with acromegaly
(bone growth problems) and arthritis.
Xenopus laevis
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Mus musculus
Sus domesticus
More complex organisms have more evolutionary but
fewer developmental differentiation abilities.
A lot more legacy code, a lot less flexibility!
Human Development and
and the Juvenile State
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
To make our “Great Leap Forward”
(human civilization) humans went
backwards developmentally
(certain development genes turned
off or slowed down, juvenile skull,
hairlessness, etc.) in comparison to
our two closest cousins (common
and bonobo chimpanzees).
Humans vs. other primates are more juvenile
(babylike), more altricial (helpless at birth), more
dependent on imprinting (from culture and tech)
and more precocial (larger brains at birth).
Lessons:
 Genetic development had to go backward to
bring greater intelligence to the planet.
 Since then it is cultural development (social
ideas and tech) that takes humans forward.
 Choose carefully the ideas and technologies you
are imprinting during your juvenile state!
Limits to Biocomplexity: Declining Marginal
Adaptation from Genetic Differentiation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Only so much complexity can develop “on top” of DNA!
Thesis: The further out one gets from the first living cell, the less
developmental freedom remains (legacy code/path dependency).
Are humans near the end of the genetic line? Consider:
 We went developmentally “backward” (heterochrony) to emerge
 We emerged not due to incremental changes in variety of genes,
but instead due to a rare punctuated change in a tiny number
of brain genes 4-6 million years ago (HAR sequences) that
improved our nongenetic (language) abilities.
 Since then, brain-expressed genes in humans clearly follow a
terminal differentiation dynamic. As Wang et al. (2006)
Bakewell et al. (2007) and others report, evolutionary change in
human brain-expressed genes has slowed down both in absolute
terms and relative to chimps since our split six million years ago.
Smart, John 2001. Limits to Biology: Performance Limitations on Natural and Engineered Biological
Systems.
http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html Wang, Hurng-Yi et al. 2006. Rate of Evolution in
Los Angeles
Brain-Expressed
Genes in Humans and Other Primates, PLoS Biology 5(2):e13 Bakewell, Margaret A. et al.
New York
2007.
Palo
AltoMore genes underwent positive selection in chimp evol. than in human evol. PNAS 4.17.2007.