Transcript Selling and Teaching Foresight Development Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators World Future Society July 2008  Washington, DC John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html.

Selling and Teaching
Foresight Development
Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators
World Future Society
July 2008  Washington, DC
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
What is Accelerating Change?
An Interesting and Unexplained Phenomenon
Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit
community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring
accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society
(STBS), at
2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and
Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.
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Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University
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Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique and creative paths (many of
which will fail) on the way to these highly probable
developmental destinations.
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Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
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Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
Acceleration
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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A ‘Developmental Spiral’
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts…)
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The Developmental Spiral
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What is Foresight Development?
Slightly New Packaging of an Old Friend
Foresight Development
Acceleration
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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Foresight Development is:
Futures Studies Education plus
Personal Foresight Skills Practice
Course Description:
Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course helps you learn better
global, business and personal foresight, so you can better enjoy and manage your
own future. This course will explore the big picture history of accelerating change
from universal, historical and technological perspectives, and consider global trends
that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments. Additionally, the
course will examine how organizations make bets on the future, and gives the
student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally,
discussion of how biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder
personal thinking about the future will be discussed. We will explore four
fundamental foresight skills: creating the future (innovating products and services);
discovering the future (models, trend identification and analysis); planning the future
(developing shared goals and processes); and benefiting in the future (achieving
measurable positive environmental, social, or economic results). Assignments will
be personalized to your own foresight goals, and include brief readings, writing,
discussions, debates, visuals, film, podcasts and games
Foresight Networks
We’re Just Beginning to Connect Up
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
Global Futures Network: Foresight Professionals,
Future-Oriented Specialists, Foresight Educators & You!
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A public, community-edited
People, Orgs, and Resources directory
for emerging global foresight culture.
FuturesNetwork.org
GFN is a directory of the best online social networks
(Shaping Tomorrow, GFN Facebook, GFN LinkedIn),
social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS
Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences,
websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those
interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Foresight Professionals and Foresight Educators
Two Global Lists
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FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators,
Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for
foresight educators, students, alumni, and
advocates of foresight education.
It networks foresight educators, the ten existing
academic programs in foresight/futures studies
(offering credentials to become a foresight educator),
MS and PhD students and alums, and seeks to help
develop open source futures/foresight materials,
courses, and new academic programs globally.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social
scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Selling Foresight Development
A Few Tips and Techniques
University of Advancing Technology
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Dynamic Private University,
Innovative Programs,
Technology-Focused.
Tempe/Phoenix, AZ
1400 Students
Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing
technology to become innovators of the future.
14 Bachelors Degrees
MS in Technology Studies
MS in Artificial Life Programming
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Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses
in Foresight Development?
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Tamkang University
27,000 undergrads
Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan
Like history and
current affairs, futures
studies (15 courses to
choose from) have
been a general
education requirement
since 1995.
Why not here?
FD Allies - Career Services Center
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Career Services Center
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Very few undergrads use it more than one month
before graduation, even for summer internships!
Get the stats so you can show the problem.
Design Industry Research, Mentoring, Internship
and Resource Building programs in conjunction w/
the Center.
Key: Students get credit for their own career
searches, share their knowledge with later classes.
FD Allies – Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation
Dept/School/Center
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
Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation Dept/School/Ctr
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Every student needs to learn to deal with change.
Every student needs to save and invest for the future.
Every student comes up with new ideas during their careers,
or participates on a team coming up with new ideas or
business processes, and needs to learn how to evaluate and
implement them.
Students need to understand the innovation mindset, the
customer/client, and what makes a new or ongoing enterprise
successful
Innovation and competitiveness are national priorities.
Innovators/business minded students are among the best
alumni (measured by participation and giving).
FD Allies - Alumni Center
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Alumni Center
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Alumni giving and alumni interest is usually low,
and starts late.
Get the stats so you can show the problem.
Alumni Research, Mentoring, and Internship
programs in conjunction w/ the Center.
Case Study Presentations on the Life Stories of
Distinguished Alumni in FD Course.
Key: Students get credit for researching and
reaching out to alumni, share their knowledge with
later classes.
FD Allies – Special Projects per Student Interest
(Optional in the FD Course)
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Library
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Computer Center
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“Power User” IT/Web proficiency
Shop/Vo-Tech/Industrial Arts Dept/Center
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Learning reference and information sciences skills
Using tools for prototyping.
Working with outside groups (TechShop).
FD Vision – Foresight Resource Center (FRC)
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Foresight Resource Center (FRC)
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Faculty Benefits
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Foresight Resources by Company, Industry and Major
Levels of Scope (local being highest priority)
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Foresight Speaking Topics/Research/Pubs by Faculty
Student Benefits
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Can live in the Career Services Center, Library, a Sponsoring
Dept (Business, etc.) or Independently
University Resources
Town/City/County Resources
State/National Resources
Global Resources
Social Events, Student Government
Foresight / Futures Studies – STS Parallel
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● Like science and technology studies (STS), a
similarly cross-disciplinary activity, foresight and
futures MS and PhD programs can live in a wide range
of schools and departments at a university.
● In the ideal case, such programs exist as
independently-funded interdisciplinary centers at
the university, able to collaborate on foresight projects
with departments and centers across the campus, as
well external universities, government, and corporate
clients.
A Brief History of Foresight / Futures Studies:
A Century of Minimal Formal Scholarship
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1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations
1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration
1930, William F. Ogburn, President’s Committee on Social Trends
1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.)
1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International)
1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future
1967, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation
Institute for the Future
1970, Rand Graduate Institute (PhD in Policy Analysis);
Alvin Toffler, Future Shock
1971, U. of Hawaii, PhD in Futures Studies (Poli. Sci.)
1974, U. of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S.
1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden; Inst. for Alternative Futures
1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation
1987, Global Business Network
1995, Tamkang U., Center for Futures Studies
1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines
2003, Acceleration Studies Foundation
Foresight Development:
Future Creation, Discovery, and Management
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or
Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards
(low-probability but high-impact events).
In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage
(“CDM”) the future.
 Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies
for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation,
exploratory research and development, creative thinking,
social networking
 Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of
prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems
theory, risk analysis, marketing research
 Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,
scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging,
enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and
time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
Global Primary Foresight / Futures Studies Programs:
Five PhD’s, Eleven Masters – An Emerging Discipline
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
AUSTRALIA
1. Swinburne U. of Tech., MS,PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.).
FINLAND
2. Turku School of Econ. and Finland Futures Academy.
MS,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ. and Bus. Admin.).
FRANCE
3. CNAM, PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg).
ITALY
4. Da Vinci Online U, MS in Scenarios for Innovation Mgmt.
MEXICO
5. Monterrey Inst. of Tech, MS in Strategic Foresight
PORTUGAL
6. Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa, MS in Foresight, Strategy & Innovation
SOUTH AFRICA
7. U. Stellenbosch and Inst. for Futures Resrch.
M.Phil,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ/Mgmt).
TAIWAN
8. Tamkang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies.
MA in Futures Studies (Education).
9. Fo Guang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies,
MA in Futures Studies (Sociology)
UNITED STATES
10. Regent University, MA in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.)
11. U. Hawaii. MA,PhD in Alternative Futures (Pol Sci).
12. U. Houston, MS in Studies of the Future (Tech).
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See
accelerating.org/gradprograms.html
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A Century of Foresight Scholarship,
But Still No General Theory of Foresight
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Fundamental Questions Remain:
 What is predictable?
 What is intrinsically unpredictable?
 What long-range forces act on complex
systems, besides natural selection?
 Does history have directionality?
Recent scientific ideas, such as evo devo
theory, provide the beginnings of a
framework for answers to such questions.
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Some Foresight Models
A Brief Overview
Foresight Development:
Twelve Types of Futures Thinking
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Studies
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\Fu"tur*ist\, n.
One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.
Social Types
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Preconventional Futurist
Personal Futurist
Imaginative Futurist
Agenda-driven Futurist
Consensus-driven Futurist
Professional Futurist
Methodological Types
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Critical Futurist
Alternative Futurist
Predictive Futurist
Evo-devo Futurist
Validating Futurist
Epistemological Futurist
See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html
Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview
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● Foresight, also known as futures studies (FS) is a
transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to
reliably improve one's ability to anticipate, create, and
manage change.
● It can be practiced in a variety of domains (scientific,
technological, environmental, economic, political and
societal), on a variety of levels/scales (personal,
organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a
variety of disciplines/specialties (theories and
methods).
● Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our
increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized
world is a difficult yet worthy challenge.
Three Types of Foresight Studies:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
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Foresight / Futures Studies
– “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change
(scenarios, trends, strategy)
 Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)
– Predictable and statistically irreversible change
(emergences, phase changes)
 Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)
– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback,
self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes
Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in
today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Nevertheless, there are few primary academic
programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years),
and none in DS or AS (by name at least).
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Foresight MS or PhD Program – Scope and Prereqs
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We suggest an MS or PhD foresight/futures programs should provide
basic proficiency in all the primary foresight specialties (the core
curriculum of futures studies), and at least a conceptual introduction to
the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible
in both primary and secondary specialties. We also propose that the best
foresight programs should satisfy all of the following requirements:
Ideal Admission Prerequisites
1. An undergraduate degree (foresight work needs context and maturity,
it is best as an MS-and-above degree)
2. Applied, specialized, real-world experience (3+ years incoming
experience after undergrad degree)
3. Science, tech, and history (econ, political and social) prereqs or
testing, with mandatory deficit remediation
Ideal Program Requirements
1. Broad-based, balanced, integral curriculum (all quadrant, all level, all
discipline, globally- and accel-aware)
2. Considers both evolutionary (possible and reversible) and
developmental (probable and irreversible) change
3. Measurably improves knowledge (pre- and in-program testing)
4. Measurably improves skills, incl. prediction and change mgmt
(validated via prediction markets, tests, etc.)
5. Transdisciplinary. Foresight students should become subject matter
experts (SME's) in more than one discipline
UGSOP Systems Model
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We explore five systems levels in relation to foresight,
starting “big picture” and doing an “inward spiral”:
1. Universal systems (science, systems theory, and
spirituality)
2. Global systems (technology, environment, and global
problems)
3. Societal systems (socio-economic, socio-political,
and socio-cultural)
4. Organizational systems (entrepreneurship,
management, cooperation, activism, family)
5. Personal systems (aesthetics, self-development,
tools, health, wealth, other social impact)
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STEEPS3 Scanning Categories Model
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Foundation
We consider eight categories in relation to foresight:
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1. Science issues (general science, general systems theory,
cognition science and systems theory)
2. Technology issues (computing, engineering, automation,
virtualization, transparency, biotech)
3. Environment issues (resources, commodities, energy,
biodiversity, pollution, catastrophes, sustainability)
4. Economics issues (entrepreneurship, capitalism, globalization,
aid and development)
5. Political issues (democracy, sustainability, rights, migration,
governance, law, defense, crime)
6. Social-Big (S1) issues (education, media, religion,
demographics)
7. Social-Medium (S2) issues (organizational, social activism,
subcultures)
8. Social-Small (S3) issues (personal, relationships, psychology,
family, aesthetics, health)
FD Nomenclature
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Framework/Learning Paradigm
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Theories
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Historical and current information used to improve construct
framework and improve theories and methods
Specialties/Disciplines
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Pragmatically discovered algorithms, practices, and talents
applicable to some system.
Knowledge
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Hypothetical and ideally empirically testable models of structure,
function, and dynamics of some system
Methods/Skills
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The Learning Paradigm (World-View, Foundational Philosophical
Assumptions, Goals) Used by an Educator
Manifests as the Learning Objectives of the FD/FS program
(Objectives are Implicitly or Explicitly tied to the Framework).
Discrete sets of Theories, Methods, and Knowledge taught by
educators as specialties or disciplines.
ASF’s Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties
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Primary Foresight Specialties (24)
Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)
Alternative Futures
Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis
Critical Futures and CLA
Development and Acceleration Studies
Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis
Environmental/ Horizon Scanning
Ethnographic Futures
Forecasting and Modeling (basic)
Foresight Frameworks and Foundations
History and Analysis of Prediction
Images of the Future
Personal Futures/ Foresight Development
Prediction Markets
Predictive Surveys/ Delphi
Roadmapping
Scenario Development and Backcasting
Scenario Planning
Strategic Foresight
Systems Thinking
Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech
Trend Extrapolation
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity
Weak Signals
Wildcards
Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment
Cognitive and Positive Psychology
Collaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict Studies
Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies
Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Ethics and Values Studies
Evolution Studies
Forecasting and Modeling (advanced)
Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies
Integral Studies and Thinking
Investing and Finance (Long-Term)
Leadership Studies and Organizational Developmnt
Library Science, KM, and Decision Support
Long-Range and Urban Planning
Political Science and Policy Studies
Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research
Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)
Science and Technology Studies
Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt.
Sociology, Demographics and Social Change
Strategic Planning
Sustainability Studies
Other Foresight-Related Specialties (45, a partial list)
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Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences |
Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision
Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and
Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography |
History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge
Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics |
Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy |
Tourism | Urban Studies
3P’s Skills / CDM Skills Model
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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In terms of foresight skills, we’ll use the classic 3P’s
Skills Model, and practice seeing and analyzing
“Possible, Probable, and Preferable” Futures. This
model was first developed by Roy Amara, President and
CEO (1970-1990) of one of the first futures think tanks,
the Institute for the Future, founded in 1968. Another
name for this, based on the actions involved, is the CDM
Skills Model, as it is about:
1. Creating/Envisioning a range of Possible futures
2. Discovering/Predicting the most Probable futures
3. Managing/Measuring toward Preferable futures.
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Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by
Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework
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Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group specialties that explore the
Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the
Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans).
This is also an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible),
"Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.
Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS)
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The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change
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First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979
Wilber’s Integral Life Skills Framework
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The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the
following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework to categorize fundamental
complementary processes of human understanding and change.
ASF’s Integral Foresight Skills Framework
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We see four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting,
and predicting, which map to Wilber’s four quadrants of life experience.
Creating/Innovating
"Seeing and making the
future things, images, and
ideals I want"
Benefiting/Measuring
"Objectifying and
measuring my progress
toward a better future."
Planning/Negotiating
"Getting consensus and
forming strategies for the
future we want."
Predicting/Discovering
"Predicting and discovering
how the system is moving
toward the future."
Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist.
Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset.
For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even
state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long
as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show,
many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There
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also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit)
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on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to
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a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.
Integral Foresight Practices:
Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IPBP)
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
Innovating/Creating (I)
Thinking and acting by personally preferred futures
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Planning/Negotiating (We)
Thinking and acting by social consensus plans
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Benefiting/Measuring (It)
Thinking and acting by objectively measurable results
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Predicting/Discovering (Its)
Thinking and acting by statistically predictive forecasts
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Integral Foresight Practices:
Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IBPB)
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I (Individual/Self)
Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual)
Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Benefiting
Tech, Culture, Art, Philos
Econ-Political
We (Social/Kinship)
Consensus-Driven Futures
Its (Global/Species)
Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Predicting
Social-Political
Science, Systems
Integral Foresight Model:
Possible, Preferable, and Possible Futures
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I (Individual/Self)
Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual)
Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Benefiting
Tech, Culture, Art, Philos
Econ-Political
We (Social/Kinship)
Consensus-Driven Futures
Its (Global/Species)
Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Predicting
Social-Political
Science, Systems
Futures Studies is about “Three P’s and a W”: Possible,
Preferable, and Probable Futures (plus Wildcards) – Roy Amara
Some Limits and Benefits of Models
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Limits:
 Biased. “These are the most important factors”.
 Oversimplified. There are other important factors.
 Abstract. They may not correspond to reality.
 Inaccurate. They may be incorrect.
Benefits:
 Consensual. They help us see what some group sees, not just
what we see.
 Clarifying. They show categories, forces, interactions we may
have overlooked.
 Balancing. They help us pay attention more across the spectrum
of “generally accepted importance.”
 Focusing. They help us look better at the things we are seeing
(drill deep in any subject).
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Foresight Development @ UAT
Inaugural Course Overview
Our Open Access, CC-Licensed Course Wiki
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Syllabus
Teaching templates
Assignments
Resources
Course slides available
to foresight educators
on request.
Visit:
http://foresightdevelopment.wetpaint.com
Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit I)
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Unit I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4)
Intro to and history of futures studies, theories of universal change, and the
unique nature of our time—scientific and technological progress that is likely
to run faster every year for the rest of our lives.
Week 1 – Intro to Futures Studies
Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science
Week 3 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part I
Week 4 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part II
Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit II)
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Unit II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9)
Forces and choices affecting our planet and our socio-economic, sociopolitical, and socio-cultural environments.
Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models
Week 6 – Global Problems and Priorities
Week 7 – Economics and the Future of Capitalism
Week 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy
Week 9 – Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society
Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit III)
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Unit III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11)
Forces and choices shaping the business and organizational world, the
many social definitions of success, and practical success strategies.
Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and Predicting
Week 11 – Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, and Metrics
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Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit IV)
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Unit IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15)
Using foresight in your personal life and future careers. Finding your own
strengths, passions, vision, and voice, and navigating an increasingly
option-rich future, "present trends extended" (PTE).
Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning
Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and Predicting
Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating
Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring
Web 2.0 Tools for FD Course – A Brief List
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DOAJ. Directory of Open Access Journals, scientific and scholarly. Full text. Free.
Docstoc. Sharing business, legal, and other professional documents. Free.
GDocs and Spreadsheets. Good basic collaboration platform. Free.
GMail and GCalendar. Clean, fast, reasonably full-featured. Free basic.
GReader. Great tool for organizing RSS feeds and tracking site updates. Free.
iGoogle. Fast, customizable, reasonably useful home page. Free.
LibraryThing. Catalog & find others with the same books. Free basic. 200K users.
Linqia. Search tool for online groups & social networks, by keyword interest.
Ning. Create your own full-featured social networks. Free.
Plaxo Pulse. FB-like business network. Free. 13M Plaxo users (not Pulse).
Slideshare. Largest community for publicly sharing your presentations. Free.
SmugMug. Best fee-based photosharing. Document your life. $40/yr. 300K users.
Spock. A search tool for finding people by interest. Free. 80M "indexed" people.
Wetpaint. Easy personal or enterprise wikis. Free basic. 600K wikis (+ this site).
Xing. For business networking. Free basic. 4M users.
Yelp. Good reviews of local businesses and services. Democracy in action! Free.
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Personal Foresight System used in FD Course:
Getting Things Done (GTD), GDocs, GCal
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The Core GTD System:
1. Actualizer Doc
(Done Items, Next Items, Waiting For Items)
2. Projects Doc
(Multistep Items)
3. Someday/Maybe Doc
(Long term/low priority)
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Transfer your Actualizer record once a month to Archives Doc.
Annotate as you transfer. How could you have been more
foresighted, realistic, and effective?
Use email reminders, try out shared calendars in GCal.
Psychological Foresight Tools Used in FD Course:
StrengthsFinder (and other Psych Testing Rubrics)
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Peter Drucker: Individuals should discover and
focus on building their best strengths, much more
than fixing their weaknesses, to make their best
and happiest contribution to the world.
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Weaknesses in turn can be best managed by:
1. Being aware of strengths you don’t have
2. Joining strengths-complementary teams
3. Allowing others to lead from their different strengths
4. Building situational intelligence (routines, tools, brief courses,
etc.) to keep you from getting tripped up by your weaknesses.
Gallup’s StrengthsFinder (and other psych profiling assessments like
MBTI, DiSC, etc.) are predictive futures tools.
How validated are they? (Gallup lists 34 strengths, large polling set)
 How complete are they (strengths and weaknesses, integral)?
 When will they be a required part of our educational, hiring (AMA:
only 39% of U.S. companies use psych testing in hiring, mostly still
minor, not yet open source), and assessment processes?
 We are still very early in this process. Major opportunity ahead.

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Personal Foresight Process in FD Course:
Eliciting Student Values and Goals
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
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Values Inventory
– What do you care about beyond ‘survival needs’?
– What is it others do that angers/offends you?
Goals (in a Categorization System)
– Personal and Academic/Professional
– Health, Family, Relationships, Professional
– HRVWE
 Health
 Relationships
 Vision (Hindsight/Insight/Foresight)
 Work
 Environment (Possessions, etc.)
Harvard MBA Goals Study
– The 3% with written goals earned 10X the others per capita
– The 15% with verbal goals earned 3X the others per capita
– The 20% of startups with business plans were 3X more likely
to be solvent at 5 years.
Personal Futures Wiki (Portfolio) Used in Course:
Fourteen Pages, Fifty Questions on FD
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GTD Pages
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Tasks+Waiting
Single-step "Next Actions" ("Tasks"), & "Waiting For Others" items
Projects+Skills
Multi-step, long-term items ("Projects") and Skills that make you unique.
Ideas+Questions "Someday/Maybe" Ideas (personal, biz, etc.) and Questions to research.
Personal Pages
Diary
Money
Habits
Fam+Friends
Values+Psych
Social+Fun
A place to journal--and review--daily or memorable life experiences.
Income, expenses, budget, investments, money goals and plans.
Health, exercise, practice, entertainment, any repeating “healthy habits.”
Your important relationships, things your fam&friends like, don’t like, & plans.
Your values, ideals, personality, and psychological traits.
Social groups, travel, other fun things you now or might do for “recreation.”
Career Pages
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Career Goals
Education+Work
Networking
Mentors
Co’s+Internships
Career plans and possibilities, current life goals and objectives.
Degrees, classes, jobs, highlights, current ed/work schedule, future plans.
Group memberships, conferences, networks that connect you to professnls.
Leaders and helpers in your profession, and your contact history with them.
Co. profiles, site visits, contacts, internship opportunities and schedules.
Some Big Question Options to Debate in Course:
Societal (Economic, Political, and Cultural) Issues
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Economics
1. Is the US “destined” to lose its economic and educational leadership to New Asia (China,
Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, India, etc.)? What should we do?
2. What are ways the US can help manage global development in more equitable, innovative,
and sustainable directions in coming years?
3. Have the corporations become too powerful in U.S. society? How can we keep powerful
corporations from reducing global and local competition? From buying political influence?
Politics
4. Will strategies of more participatory democracy (initiative politics, direct local democracy,
grassroots activism, nonviolent resistance (boycotts, civil disobedience etc.) become more
powerful in a Network 2.0 world? How might they change the U.S. political climate (positively
and negatively)?
5. As military and security technologies get more autonomous (UAVs, etc.), more precise
(smart weapons, and more networked and transparent, what changes can we expect in the
U.S. military and homeland security environment (“threatscape”)?
6. If selfishness and evil (lying, violence, etc.) have been key parts of human nature up until now,
how can we keep them in check in a world of accelerating economic growth (creating
powerful new plutocrats) and accelerating tech (environmental degradation, terrorist WMDs)?
Culture
7. Are any of our cultural indicators (citizen intelligence, independence, analytical ability, world
knowledge, self-reliance, self-accountability, community) declining in the U.S.? Why? Is this a
problem, or is this OK as long as our “machines” pick up the slack? Are they?
8. How can we, or do we want to, restore the American educational “Social Contract” of the
mid-20th century, which tried to give all citizens an affordable and challenging education
according to their ability rather than according to their wealth?
9. What has been the impact of Network 1.0 technology (TV, Web 1.0, etc.) and economy (early
info/services economy) on U.S. culture so far? Where may it go in Network 2.0 (next 25 years
of info and communication tech)? What are some of the opportunities and risks ahead?
Why Teach
Foresight / Futures Studies?
Your intuitions, please!
Why Teach
Foresight / Futures Studies?
Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us
Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present.
Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other
Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate
Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our
Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global,
and Universal Futures
Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision
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Prediction Markets, Delphi, and
the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds
Great Futures Books and Movies
Used in Foresight Development Course
(and to Consider for Your Course)
Futures Movie Night – Weeks 1-5
One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development
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Week 1 - Futures Studies
The Future We Will Create: Inside the World of TED, 2007
Future Living 2025, Discovery Channel, 2007
Pandora's Box (Six Episodes), Adam Curtis, 1992
Week 2 - Science
Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution, Episode 4: Where Are the Aliens?, NOVA, 2004
Evolution (8 Episode Series): Episode 2 - Great Transformations, PBS, 2001
Judgment Day: Intelligent Design on Trial, NOVA, 2007
Week 3 - Technology, Part I
Beyond Human, Episode 2: Living Machines, Thomas Lucas, PBS, 2001
2057: The Body, The City, The World (3 Episodes), Discovery Channel
Future Cars: Episode 1 - Extreme Cars (4 Episodes), Discovery Channel, 2007
Future Weapons: Smart Weapons, (Season 1, Episode 4), Discovery Channel, 2006
Tokyo's Sky City and Transatlantic Tunnel, Extreme Engrg (S1, Ep 1), Discovery Channel, 2006
Week 4 - Technology, Part II
Computers - Modern Marvels, History Channel, 2005
Pirates of Silicon Valley, Martyn Burke, 1999
Amazing story of the birth of the personal computer, the first great chapter in the democratization of computing.
The Internet/Web 1.0 was the second. What will be third? Web 2.0?
Startup.com, Chris Hegedus, 2001
Tech startups can be abysmal in new industries, where foresight is lacking. These Web 1.0 guys burn through
60 million in 18 months, leaving nada to show for it. Incredibly instructive.
Revolution OS, J.T.S. Moore, 2002
Video Game Invasion: The History of a Global Obsession, David Comtois, 2004
Week 5 - Global, Part I
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World in the Balance: The Population Paradox and China Revs Up, NOVA, 2004 (2 Episodes)
Planet in Peril: A CNN Worldwide Investigation (2 Episodes), CNN, 2007
Energy Crossroads, Chris Fauchere, 2007
Solar Energy: Saved by the Sun, NOVA, 2007
Futures Movie Night – Weeks 6-7
One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development
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Week 6 - Global, Part II
Commanding Heights, Episode 1: The Battle of Ideas, Daniel Yergin, 2003
Commanding Heights, Episode 3: The New Rules of the Game, Daniel Yergin, 2003
Utopia, Paragon, 2005
The worst mass crimes of the 20th century were created by "top-down" utopian futurists with grand visions and
power, and no sufficiently organized opposition, or pluralistic checks and balances. Lenin, Hitler, Mao are all
chillingly portrayed in this compelling film.
People's Century (Award-winning 26 episodes on the 20th Century) Great Leap: 1943-1976, PBS, 1999
Incredible story of the heartbreaking, dysfunctional impact of Mao Tse Tung, one of the most powerful utopian
futurists of the 20th century, up to and during the Cultural Revolution in China.
Confronting the Truth,
The growth of truth commissions. They address the pain of the past, restore human rights and due process,
create institutional memory, and ensure social horrors will not be repeated.
Uganda Rising, Pete McCormack, 2006
Great story about Ugandan politics and the youth-soldiers in the Lords Resistance Army. Social engineering
(amnesty & reconciliation) can address complex issues of civil violence.
Week 7 - Economics
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Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price, Robert Greenwald, 2005
Learn about the largest, wealthiest company in the world. Grossly unfair US government subsidies,
substandard wages and health care, exploitation of Chinese workers, aggressively antiunion policies allowing
substandard working conditions to persist. Strong social democracies like Germany hold Wal-Mart to a much
higher standard. When will we?
The Corporation (2 Disc Special Edition), Mark Achbar, 2004
Overly histrionic and sloppy, yet still a reasonably useful exploration of the excesses of the corporate entity in
the 20th century, which have become less extreme in individual instance, yet more pervasive as corporate
wealth has grown to exceed national wealth the world over. Briefly considers the unrealized possibilities for
corporate charter revocation and reform.
Sicko (Special Edition), Michael Moore, 2007
One of Moore's more balanced works, while still biased infotainment. Special features on the DVD include this
8 minute piece on Norway's health care and penal system. Moore highlights Norwegian outliers in the prison
bit, without telling you, as is typical of his propagandism. Still, when will US citizens have the power to create a
health care system that puts universal care ahead of profits? We shall see.
Futures Movie Night – Weeks 8-11
One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development
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Week 8 - Politics + Security
Why We Fight, Eugene Jarecki, 2006
No End In Sight, Charles Ferguson, 2007
Our Brand is Crisis, Rachel Boynton, 2005
The Fog of War, Errol Morris, 2003
Well-Founded Fear: Gaining Political Asylum in America, Shari Robertson, 2001
Week 9 - Media, Education, Culture
Orwell Rolls in His Grave, Robert Kane Pappas, 2004
Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism, Robert Greenwald, 2004
News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 3 - What's Happening to the News, Lowell Bergman, Frontline,
2007
News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 4 - Stories from a Small Planet, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007
Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, John Merrow, PBS, 2005
2 Million Minutes: A Documentary Calculating the Educational Divide, Chad Heeter, 2007
Revealing, hard-hitting documentary financed by multimillionaire venture capitalist Bob Compton. It
demonstrates just how far behind the United States education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and
mathematics) has fallen, and just how comfortable we are with this situation. The modern global marketplace is
highly competitive, and the leading innovations and companies of the future are going to come from countries
that have strong STEM education and an innovative culture. Will we recognize how vulnerable we presently
are, and reform our educational system and start immigrating the best and the brightest again, or will we
continue to slide into narcissism and global irrelevancy? Each of us has the choice, for ourselves.
Week 10 - Biz-Org, Part I
Who Killed the Electric Car?, Chris Paine, 2006
We Built this City - Paris, Discovery Channel, 2005
Week 11 - Biz-Org, Part II
Merchants of Cool, Barak Goodman, Frontline, PBS, 2005
The Persuaders, Rachel Dretzin, Frontline, PBS, 2005
Architecture to Zucchini: People, Co’s, and Orgs Pioneering Sustainability, 2006
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Futures Movie Night – Weeks 12-15
One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development
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Week 12 - Personal-Career, Part I
A Whole New Mind, Daniel Pink, 2006
The Up Series, Michael Apted (Three 20 min pieces, 7 up, 21 up, and 42 up)
Mr. Personality (Intvw w/ Forensic Psychologist Michael Stone) on The Thin Blue Line, Errol Morris,
2005
Week 13 - Personal-Career, Part II
Maxed Out, James Scurlock, 2005
Excellent expose of the massive addiction to debt at the consumer and national level. Legal reform makes it
increasingly easy to hook unsuspecting, unforesighted consumers, starting in college, into paying 24-29% a
month in interest to the big financial institutions, for years on end. Probably the most profitable legal scam in
the US at present. As individuals we can break the vicious cycle, but it takes financial foresight to do so.
Secret History of the Credit Card, Frontline, David Rummel, 2004
Week 14 - Personal-Career, Part III
Bringing Down a Dictator, Steve York, 2002
A Force More Powerful: Episode 2, Steve York, 2000 (2 episodes)
Street Fight, Marshall Curry, 2005
Modern politics and racial stereotyping in the 2002 Newark, NJ Mayoral campaign. The corruption and
dishonesty are incredible, the electorate is hoodwinked, yet there is still hope.
Week 15 - Personal-Career, Part IV
Legacy, Tod Lending, 2006
The Bridge, Eric Steel, 2006
The Business of Being Born, Abby Epstein, 2007
Shows the way Americans, as the world's most convenience-oriented culture, have allowed the business of
medicine to turn childbirth into an experts-only affair and a major profit center. The low number of parents who
use midwives (8% in US vs. 70% in Europe) illustrates our patriarchal, numbed-out approach. Is it any wonder
that our parenting is also increasingly hands off as well? Fortunately we can rise above the limitations of our
disempowering “experts only” culture and make childbirth, parenting, funeral arrangements, insurance, and
other big life choices something we control ourselves.
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Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 1 - Introduction to Futures Studies
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays
The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern, 2000.
Great book on the success and failures of foresight and “prediction science.”
Thinking About the Future: Guide for Strat Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007
Great practical text on how orgs can prepare for the future. 36 contributors.
Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education, James Dator, Ed., 2002.
History, courses, methods, concerns, and issues of teaching futures. 19 contributors.
A Brief History of Tomorrow: The Future Past and Present, Jonathan Margolis, 2001
Insightful and witty novel-type read on the wild and crazy frontier of futuring.
Contemporary Futurist Thought: Sci-Fi and Futures Studies, Thomas Lombardo, 2006
Good survey of the range and value of futures thinking by a futures studies professor.
Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar, Ed., 1999
18 futurists stress the need for non-Western cultures and concerns in futures.
Yesterday’s Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future, Joseph J. Corn, 1984
Beautiful pics of U.S. future images, discussion of the benefits and limits of visioning.
TechTV’s Catalog of Tomorrow: Trends Shaping Your Future, Andrew Zolli, Ed., 2003
100 fun two-page essays on trends and tech, looking out 5-20 years. 44 contributors.
MacMillan Atlas of the Future, Ian Pearson, Ed., 1998
Maps and graphics popularizing future trends and issues for humanity. 25 contributors.
The Gaia Atlas of Future Worlds: Challenge and Opportunity, Norman Myers, 1990
Pretty atlas of trends, issues in global sustainability. Old enough do prediction-checking.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays
Decoding the Universe: The New Science of Information, Charles Siefe, 2006
Information physics is relating brains to black holes, and predicting the multiverse.
Astrobiology: A Beginners Guide, Lewis Dartnell, 2007
The new science of astrobiology: how special planets create life, on Earth and elsewhere.
Biocosm: A New Scientific Theory of Evolution, James Gardner, 2003
Our universe has many features of a biological system & may have had an "intelligent" start.
The Privileged Planet: Our Anthropic Place in the Cosmos, Gonzalez and Richards, 2004
Evidence that Earth is in a "special" place in the cosmos, optimized for scientific discovery.
Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo, Scott Carroll, 2006
Great intro to biological evo devo: how evolution and development interact in organisms.
Life’s Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, Simon Conway-Morris, 2003
Great intro to universal evo devo: how evolution leads to "convergent evolution" in Universe.
The Origins of Virtue: Human Instincts and the Evolution of Cooperation, Matt Ridley, 1998
Short overview of how societies build cooperation and morality through collaboration.
The Next 50 Years: Science in the First Half of the 21st Century, John Brockman, Ed., 2002
25 essays on the future of the Cosmos, Math, Neurosci, Bio, Culture, Morality, and Prediction.
The End of Science: Facing the Limits of the [Human-Only] Scientific Age, John Horgan, 1997
Controversial arguments that science is running into human limits. Will AI's do better?
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan, 1997
A call to scientific and "evidence-based" thinking to help solve humanity's problems.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 3 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part I
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays
Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History, David Christian, 2004
Good overview of the "Big Picture" of accel. change, from a universal perspective.
Society and Technological Change, 5th. Ed., Rudi Volti, 2005
Very good STS textbook on the impact of tech. change on society over centuries.
The Change Function: Why Some Technol. Take Off & Others Crash, Pip Coburn, 2006
Why people don't try new things until the perceived benefits outweigh the pain of change.
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intell., Ray Kurzweil, 2000
Great insights on tech accel. Proposes human-intell. computers will arrive by mid-century.
Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing, Adam Greenfield, 2006
How computers are becoming miniaturized, interconnected, and embedded everywhere.
Nanotechnology: Science, Innovation, and Opportunity, Lynn Foster, Ed., 2005
Great intro to the many opportunities and challenges of nanotech for humans & the world.
Hacking Matter: The Infinite Weirdness of Programmable Atoms, Wil McCarthy, 2004
A sometimes-crazy romp through the really powerful, really weird world of "Inner Space.“
Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Human Enhancement, Joel Garreau, 2006
Discusses 3 key social paths for the future of GRIN (Genetics, Robotics, Info, Nano) tech.
Intervention: The Real Risks of Genetic Engineering and Biotech, Denise Caruso, 2006
Good exploration of the risks of biotech, and the social values that limit its adoption.
Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age, Bill McKibben, 2004
A call for preserving human values, identity, and culture in our highly technological age.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 4 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part II
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorg., Greg Stock, 1993
A very good book on human-machine symbiosis, written from a biological perspective.
Visions of Technology: A Century of Debate about Machines, Richard Rhodes, 2000
Vignettes on the social impact of 20th century tech change, by an emininent historian.
Technology Matters: Questions to Live With, David Nye, 2006
Key Q’s about tech: Is it predictable? Does it control us? How does it change work? Culture?
Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology, Neil Postman, 1993
Great exposition of the ways technology weakens society, and ideas on how to fight back.
Technology and the Future, Albert Teich, 10th Ed, AAAS, 2005
Good range of mostly conservative views on tech futures and social responses.
Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games, Edward Castronova, 2006
Social and economic trends in VW’s, games, and the coming Metaverse economy.
Deception: Pakistan, the US and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, Levy and Scott-Clark, 2007
WMDs are a major problem. US policy short-sightedness has proliferated nuke tech globally.
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Kunstler, 2006
Doomsaying that peak oil and climate change can't be fixed fast enough to prevent collapse.
The Bottomless Well: Why We Will Never Run out of Energy, Huber and Mills, 2006
Techno-optimist, utopian ideas that new tech and free markets solve all energy problems.
The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James Hogan, Yukinobu Hoshino, 2006
Fictional account of one of the great questions of 21C tech: How do we trust the coming AI?
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays
Global Trends 2015: A Dialog About the Future, CIA, 2005
Excellent, concise, CIA-compiled database of important global trends and implications.
Modernization, Cultural Change, & Democracy: Values & Devel., Ronald Inglehart, 2005
Summary of 40 years of research showing how development creates a common set of values.
The Transparent Society: Technology, Privacy and Freedom, David Brin, 1999
Balanced treatment of the upsides and downsides of our accelerating global transparency.
Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Allen Hammond, 1998
Three institutions look out to 2050 and paint three different scenarios for the global future.
The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Executive Summary, RAND, 2006
Great overview of trends, challenges, and options in nano, bio and info technologies.
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Jeroen van der Veer, 2005
Energy, resources, economic, & political scenarios from Shell, a leading scenario developer.
Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Barry Hughes, 2006
Modeling system for International Futures. Good in general, but not fully technology-aware.
The State of the World 2007, Worldwatch Institute, 2007
Annual world status report from environment to human rights. Sustainability focused.
The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the State of the World, Bjorn Lomborg, 2001
A critical look at claims that our global environment is falling apart. Evidence for optimism.
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Robert Wright, 2001
Makes the case that non-zero sum (positive sum) interactions drive most social activity.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 6 – Global Problems and Priorities
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays
Mapping the Global Future: The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project, NIC, 2005
Great illustrated summary of future global scenarios, from the National Intelligence Council.
From Third World to First, The Singapore Story: 1965-2000, Lee Kuan Yew, 2000
How “authoritarian capitalism” enabled rapid economic development. A model for others?
Environment: An Introductory Textbook, 5th Edition, Peter Raven, 2005
College text on our natural environment, a complex system we still don't understand well.
Wilson's Ghost: Reducing Conflict and Catastrophe in 21C, McNamara & Blight, 2001
Brilliant book on the global context enabling the 9/11 attacks, and future US policy options.
Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity, UNDP, 2006
Goals and progress in global development per the United Nations Development Program.
How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, Bjorn Lomborg, 2006
Priorities for global development from Lomborg's "Copenhagen Consensus.“
Worldchanging: A User’s Guide for the 21st Century, Alex Steffen, 2006
Tools and strategies for achieving a "bright, green future." Sustainability and innovation.
Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, A New Urban World, Robert Neuwirth, 2006
Issues and futures of the world's biggest slums, by a journalist who has lived in them.
The End of Poverty, Economic Possibilities for Our Time, Jeffrey Sachs, 2006
Asks for new levels of political, corporate, & individual participation in global development.
The White Man’s Burden: Why Western Aid Has Done So Little Good, Bill Easterly, 2007
How we hurt the developing world in trying to aid them, and the difficulty of the problem.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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Week 7 – Economics and the Future of Capitalism
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays
Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, & Econ of Prosperity, William Baumol, 2007
Explains the four major types of capitalism. Only one, entrepreneurial capitalism, is ideal.
The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Thomas Friedman, 1999
Intro to accel. globalization and its new-world vs. old-world tensions. Written before 9/11.
One Nation, Underprivileged, Mark Robert Rank, 2005
Huge social costs of undereducating and underemploying American poor and immigrants.
China Shakes the World: The Challenge for America, James Kynge, 2006
Now and future impact of Chinese economic, political, & social power on world & the US.
Three Billion New Capitalists: Great Shift of Wealth & Power East, Clyde Prestowitz, 2006
Issues of integrating a growing, Networked Asia (China,India,SE Asia) into global economy.
Information Rules: A Guide to the Network Economy, Shapiro and Varian, 1998
Good overview of the economic, info, and social changes in the Network Society.
Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution, Hawken and Lovins, 2000
Eloquent call for a future of sustainable economics and green business: natural capitalism.
Banker to the Poor: Micro-Lending and World Poverty, Muhammad Yunus, 2003
By the Nobel-winning founder of Grameen Bank, pioneers of microcredit for the poor.
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: End Poverty Thru Profits, C.K. Prahalad, 2006
Opportunities in Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) capitalism, microcredit to microconsumption.
The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, Joel Bakan, 2005
Considers weaknesses of the modern corporate structure and possibilities for reform.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays
Lies My Teacher Told Me: What Your History Textbook Got Wrong, James Loewen, 2007
Brilliant critique of the "feel good myths" we learn in history class, and ideas for change.
The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, Fareed Zakaria, 2007
Explores the limits and weaknesses of democracy and the ways it can become illiberal.
The American Anomaly: U.S. in Comparative Perspective, Raymond Smith, 2007
Argues the U.S. is no longer the most participatory and competitive political economy.
America (The Book) Teacher’s Ed: A Guide to Democracy Inaction, Jon Stewart, 2006
Hilarious intro to American history and political democracy, warts and all. Comedy Central.
Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich, Kevin Phillips, 2003
Why the rich are not conservatives (low govt) but plutocrats (use govt to their advantage).
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Samuel Huntington, 1998
Sees the world as a set of eight cultures increasingly conflicting over religion and dogma.
The Lucifer Principle: An Expedition into the Forces of History, Howard Bloom, 1997
Argues that evil (lying, violence, etc.) plays an essential role in biological adaptation.
A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, Ackerman and Duvall, 2001
Chronicles the rising power of nonviolent mass resistance to remove or reform governments.
The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, Thomas Barnett, 2005
Combating disconnectedness (tech, econ, & cultural) as a key U.S. global security strategy.
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock, 2005
Great study of the repeating patterns, biases, and limits of political (and other) prediction.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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Week 9 – Culture, Media, and Education in a Network Society
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays
The First Measured Century: Trends in America, 1900-2000, Theodore Caplow et. al., 2000
One hundred years of social and economic trends, with graphics and engaging commentary.
The Rise of the Image, the Fall of the Word, Mitchell Stephens, 1998
Charts the rise of moving images and decline of the printed word, and some implications.
Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, Robert Putnam, 2001
Great stats on the 50-year deterioration of U.S. social life, with some ideas for solutions.
The Future of Media: Resistance and Reform in the 21st Century, Robert McChesney, 2005
Great articles on massive media centralization and corporatization, and proposals for reform.
The Future of Ideas: The Nature of The Commons in a Connected World, Larry Lessig, 2002
How large corporations are stifling public innovation & privatizing our online info commons.
The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel, 1998
The politics of change, and conflicts over creativity, enterprise, and progress.
Cuture Jam: Reversing America’s Suicidal Consumer Binge, Calle Lasn, 2000.
The power & addictions of brands, conformity, & overconsumption in a global corporate age.
Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, Richard Hersh et. al., 2006
On the retreat from challenging and affordable higher ed as a 20th century "social contract."
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge, Cass Sunstein, 2006
How free and open online info, aggregation, and markets are accelerating global knowledge.
The Fourth Turning: Cycles of History and America’s Destiny, Strauss and Howe, 1997
Historical generational (cycle) theory that the US is "on the verge of crisis." We shall see.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
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Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innov., Learning, and Predicting
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 3 Essays
Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap... and Others Don't, Jim Collins, 2001
Careful research featuring 11 big companies that manage to greatly improve, year after year.
Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers, 2003
Classic on innovation diffusion, how new ideas and tech spread into a culture, or don't.
The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clay Christensen, 2003
How companies manage "disruptive innovation," new tech that greatly changes the market.
The Art of the Start: A Guide for Anyone Starting Anything, Guy Kawasaki, 2004
Great advice on planning, raising money, hiring, and starting any business project.
The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki, 2005
How groups can beat their best individuals for cognition, coordination, and cooperation.
The Fifth Discipline: The Art of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, 2006
How to build continual learning, "the only sustainable competitive advantage," into any org.
The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, & Societies, Scott Page, 2007
Why cognitive and experience diversity on your team beats groups of like-minded experts.
Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden, 2005
How to use the futures tool of scenario planning (possible futures) to improve biz strategy.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein, 1998
Quant. probability has led to econometrics, insurance, forecasting, and better foresight.
Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted, Ian Ayres, 2007
The recent creation of huge data sets lets analysts make previously impossible predictions.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Week 11 – Biz-Org Plans, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, & Metrics
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 3 Essays
Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present, Bob Johansen, 2007
Practical ways for orgs to develop a "future sense" and improve their plans and strategy.
Out of Control: Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World, Kevin Kelly, 1995
How our connected and complex world can be understood as a biological, evolving system.
Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century, Peter Schwartz, 2004
A leading futurist considers both the expected and unpredictable future.
Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Don Tapscott, 2006
The economic and social benefits of global online collaboration for people and companies.
Hard Facts, Half-Truths, & Total Nonsense: Evidence-Based Mgmt, Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006
How to analyze business management practices using surveys, science, and evidence.
Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker, 2006
Argues well against the idea that technology change is particularly fast or important today.
Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Steven Schnaars, 1989
Collection of bad forecasts by think tanks, researchers, and politicians, w/ recommendations.
Inviting Disaster: Lessons from the Edge of Technology, James Chiles, 2002
50 famous catastrophes, and ways that they could have been prevented with better systems.
Future Search: Finding Common Ground in Orgs & Communities, Marvin Weisbord, 2000
A future search conference helps organizational stakeholders work to chart a better future.
Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things, William McDonough, 2002
Using industrial design to improve sustainability and "eco-effectiveness" in our world.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays
Natural Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Intelligence, Andy Clark, 2004
Why you are already a "cyborg" and will get even more intimately connected to all your tech.
The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, John Maxwell, 2007
Qualities and habits that make you the kind of person whose ideas others want to follow.
Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind: Intelligence Increases When You Think Less, Guy Claxton, 2000
Logic and reason aren't enough. We need slow, intuitive, nonlinear thinking just as much.
Authentic Happiness: Positive Psychology and Your Potential, Martin Seligman, 2002
From the founder of science of positive psychology. How to thrive, love, and be happy.
Finding Flow: Psych. of Engagement with Everyday Life, Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi, 1998
Tips on creating flow: a psychological state of ease, focus, happiness, and productivity.
Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudosci. and Superstitions, Michael Shermer, 2002
Shows the value of skepticism and evidence-based thinking to counter superstition.
When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a UFO Group, Diane Tumminia, 2005
Exposes = how wishful thinking causes us to deny reality. We all do this, to some extent.
No Logo: No Space, No Choice, No Jobs, Naomi Klein, 2002
Brands now dominate public life, narrow our choices and our thinking. Tips on resisting.
50 Facts That Should Change the World, Jessica Williams, 2004
Some fascinating stats, many addressable by technology. Which ones will we deal with?
Fifty-Two Simple Ways to Make a Difference, Paul Simon, 2004
Small things are really the big things, in the end. Some powerful ways to be a better person.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and Predicting
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays
Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, K. Anders Ericsson, 2006
"Natural" talent is quite overrated. Experts are mostly made, not born. Anyone can be one.
The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey, 2004
Each habit takes years to master, but becoming an expert in them is a key to personal power.
Our Inner Ape: A Leading Primatologist Explains Who We Are, Frans De Waal, 2006
Human nature is a blend of chimpanzee and bonobo, of competition and cooperation.
Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman, 2007
How the choice, care, and feeding of our relationships determines our intelligence.
The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil, Philip Zimbardo, 2007
How situations, environments, can change our ethics. Why our environment matters.
The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out as They Do, Judith Rich Harris, 1998
Shows the huge effect of our peer groups on our success in life. Choose your friends wisely!
Hold on to Your Kids: Why Parents Need to Matter More than Peers, Neufeld and Mate, 2006
Compulsive peer attachment hurts individuality, creativity, intelligence. How to fix that.
Building a Bridge to the 18th Century: How the Past Helps the Future, Neil Postman, 2000
Bringing Enlightenment values (intellect, history, logic, rhetoric) back into the 21st century.
The Pathfinder: How to Choose or Change Your Career, Nicholas Lore, 1998
By goalsetting, list making, & other techniques, find your ideal career and make it happen.
Do What You Are: Discover Your Career thru Personality Type, Paul &Barbara Tieger, 2001
Using personality profiling to find industries, careers, and occ’s that match your strengths.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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New York
Palo Alto
Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays
Everything's an Argument - With Readings, Andrea Lunsford et. al., 2006
An excellent and visual introduction to argument and rhetoric, foundational skills for all of us.
Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Richard Neustadt, 1986
How to best use historical knowledge to improve decision making. A classic.
How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Reason in Life, Thomas Gilovich, 1993
The limits of logic and psychology in understanding our complex, contingent world.
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond, 2002
Systematic approaches to making better-considered choices. Lots of great case examples.
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, Barry Schwartz, 2005
Explains how overanalysis and abundance can rob us of flexibility and satisfaction.
How Full is Your Bucket: Positive Strategies for Work and Life, Rath and Clifton, 2007
Explores the foundation of social intelligence: creating positive social interactions.
Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Roger Fisher, 1991
Very readable text on achieving win-win negotiations in workplace and home.
Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, Douglas Stone, 2000
When we put off the most important conversations, everyone suffers. How to fix that.
What You Can Change & What You Can’t: A Guide to Self Improvmt, Martin Seligman, 2007
Common psychological disorders and how to self-treat them. Practical personal psychology.
Never Eat Alone: Success, One Relationship at a Time, Keith Ferrazzi, 2005
The importance of defining who you are, trusting others, and networking for a clear objective.
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week,
Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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New York
Palo Alto
Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring
Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays
One Small Step Can Change Your Life: The Kaizen Way, Robert Maurer, 2004
Face fears that block change by making small, measurable steps in the right direction.
The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Inner Strength, Karen Reivich, 2003
A key empowering habit of mind. How to keep perspective, not overeact, and bounce back.
The Survivor Personality: How to Get Better at Handling Adversity, Al Siebert, 1996
Why some crumble under pressure while others get stronger, and how do the latter.
The Power of Full Engagement: A Personal Energy Mgmt System, Tony Schwartz, 2004
Energy management complements time, space, money, knowledge, and process mgmt.
Fooled by Randomness: The Role of Chance in Life and Markets, Nassim Taleb, 2005
Humans are pattern recognizers. We see patterns where none exists. How to reduce that.
The Seven Stages of Money Maturity, George Kinder, 2000
Stages of psych development in relation to money. Which of these are you presently "in"?
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, 2003
The classic in value investing. A book for foresighted people with long-term plans.
Socially Responsible Investing: Making a Difference & Making Money, Amy Domini, 2000
How to put your money where your values are. Investing as a way to improve the world.
Journal to the Self: Twenty-Two Paths to Personal Growth, Kathleen Adams, 1990
Well-regarded book on journaling as a tool for self-understanding and personal mastery.
CrazyBusy: Strategies For Handling Your Fast-Paced Life, Edward Hallowell, 2006
How to manage culturally induced ADD, 24/7 accessibility, and modern expectations.
Some Sample Slides
From FD Class Presentations and Discussions
“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity
Development (Arranged “Fastest First”)
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Nanotech (nanoscale science and technology)
Infotech (computing, comm., and engrg. technology)
Sociotech (org. and social technology)
Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors)
Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a
still-early technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older,
less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and
diffusion. First and second mover advantages.
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech
Acceleration
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"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
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The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
Buckminster Fuller: MEST Compression as
Ephemeralization (Our ‘Weightless’ Economy)
Acceleration
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In Nine Chains to the Moon, 1938, poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."
(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)
Due to principles like superposition, entanglement,
negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum
(single electrons, photons, etc.) appears even more
ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.
In Critical Path, 1981, Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical,
metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly
effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of
materials per unit function formed or performed".
In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with
ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional
performance”
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This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
MEST Efficiency Implication:
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
Acceleration
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
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself,
how easily it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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1. These levels have reorganized to “fastest first.”
2. We see more pluralism (a network property) as we rise in level.
Examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort
Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
3. Where is Society here? On all three levels. Can we move moer
human aspirations and culture to the top of this list? Can we create
a global network of tech shapers, early adopters, and critics?
MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts
Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves
Acceleration
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Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
Two orders of magnitude
jump in capacity.
99% duty after 1,000 cycles
Reliable at temp extremes
Cost competitive
What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
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Farming and Cities are Killing the Oceans
Acceleration
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
Massive fertilizer use and city effluent runoff
adds massive nutrients to ocean, causing an
explosion of primitive organisms. This “rise of
slime” is killing off the larger species.
See: “Altered Oceans” Series, LA Times, 2006 http://tinyurl.com/hql49
Altered Oceans: A Little-Known Global Trend
Acceleration
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




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90% of global stocks of tuna, cod, and other big fish
have disappeared in the last 50 years.
97% of elkhorn and staghorn coral off Florida has
disappeared since 1975.
150 oxygen depleted “dead zones” exist on global
coastlines next to cities today. 10 existed in 1950.
75% of Southern California’s kelp forests have
disappeared in the last 50 years.
650 Grey Whales have washed up sick or dead on
the West Coast of N. America in the last seven years.
Altered Oceans (5 part series), Los Angeles Times, 2006.
More Dead Zones, More Acidic Conditions
Acceleration
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Known “dead zones” in 2005: 150
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See: “Altered Oceans” Series, LA Times, 2006 http://tinyurl.com/hql49
Particularly Strong Sign of a Global Problem (Since 1988):
Less Fish (total tonnage), Even Less Fish (per capita)
Acceleration
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See: “Altered Oceans” Series, LA Times, 2006 http://tinyurl.com/hql49
Not enough fish in the sea, Kenneth Weiss, LA Times, 26 Nov 2006
Angus Maddison’s
Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982
Acceleration
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Information/Services/Network Society
Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)
Network 1.0
“McJobs” & Service
65% of Jobs, 2000’s
Network 2.0
New Middle Class
40% of Jobs, 2030’s
Network 3.0
Consolidation Again
15% of Jobs, 2060’s
Products/Manufacturing Society
Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)
Manufacturing 1.0
Exploitive Jobs
50% of Jobs, 1900’s
Manufacturing 2.0
New Middle Class
35% of Jobs, 1950’s
Manufacturing 3.0
Offshoring/Globalizing
14% of Jobs, 2000’s
Resources/Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)
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Agriculture 1.0
Subsistence Jobs
80% of Jobs, 1820’s
Agriculture 2.0
Family Farms
50% of Jobs, 1920’s
Agriculture 3.0
Corporate Farms
2% of Jobs, 1990’s
See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
What Capitalist Phases May Come Next?
The Financial Economy
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 The
Financial Economy (Money Supply,
Finance, Stocks, Investments)
– 47 trillion annual gross world product
– 55 trillion money supply (M3), growing
at 2X or more GDP, an informal tax on
economy. U.S. Govt (state, local, federal,
military, contractors) employs 13% of U.S.
society from formal and informal taxes.
– 10 trillion ann. goods and services trading
– 100 trillion ann. stocks and bonds trading
– 980 trillion annual currency trading volume
 Some equitocracy goals
– Government Reform & Accountability
– Balanced Government Budgets
– Solvent Social Insurance
– Corporate Reform & Accountability
– Progressive Corporate Taxation
– Progressive Income & Asset Taxation
– Consumer Trust Accounts
Data360.org; Global Money Supply, Mike Hewitt, 31 Jul 2007; Wikipedia (GWP)
Long-Term: Automation and the Voluntary Future
Acceleration
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Lifetime hours trends:
1880
1995
2040
Total Available (after eating, 225,900
sleeping, etc.)
298,500 321,900
Worked to earn a living
182,100
122,400 75,900
Balance for Leisure and
Voluntary Work
43,800
176,100 246,000
Prediction: We will see a continued strong increase in voluntary
activities in all first world economies. Culture, entertainment, travel,
education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and
development work, the arts, etc.
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Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and Future of Egalitarianism,
2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist and founder of
the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using
statistical and mathematical models)
Innovation, Patents, and Policy
in Large vs. Small Companies
Acceleration
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Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no
incentive to implement unless:
a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents
b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing
c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened
d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence)
Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no
incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the
same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower
CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.
Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote
premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs.
effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).
Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid
until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers,
or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait”
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Some Solutions:
Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations
Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry
Mandate tough and increasing performance standards
Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.
Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions
Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs
Promote corporate transparency
Promote public stock ownership
Toyota’s 1/X
Concept Car (2007)
1/3 the weight
2X the fuel efficiency
of the Prius
Tipping Point for Car Ownership:
Why Green Cars Matter
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Global auto sales by all carmakers: 65 million in 2005
Toyota’s Official Sales Estimate: 73 million cars in 2010
Presently slow growth.
Tata Motor’s
planned $2,000
“people’s car”
Wildcard: If ultra-low cost ($1,000-$2,000) cars and microfinancing are
brought to market soon in emerging nations, the global car market might
begin to grow as fast as 50% year. For many years in a row.
Wildcard Projection assuming 50% annual sales growth starting in 2010,
from 73 million, for just five years: 553 million cars sold in 2015
Total Potential Cars Sold, 2010-2015 (or 2010-2020?): 1,514 million cars
Global Car Saturation could occur in a period as short as ten years, locking
us into the energy efficiency, pollution, and safety standards of those
particular automobiles for the next 20 years (avg. car lifetime).
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Conclusion: These need to be clean and efficient cars, or we may suffer a
real global energy and pollution crisis.
Are governments involved in slowing the rollout of today’s machines, and/or
setting minimum standards? The record is not encouraging.
IP Regulation and the Tech Innovation Rate:
Examples from Bose and Microvision
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Innovation diffusion can be prevented due to overly restrictive IP
(intellectual property) policy, often due to the philosophy of a single
individual controlling the corporation (Amar Bose, etc.). IP law reform can
change this, but only with foresight and political will!
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map:
All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths
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Examples:
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Secularism (human-derived
values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism)
Self Expression
Subjective Well Being
Quality of Life
Sustainability
World Awareness
Future Orientation
Political Moderation
Interpersonal Trust
Casualness
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It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.
worldvaluessurvey.org
Average US literacy scores are projected to decline
between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.
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In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy
By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category
A Flatter Curve Means
More Inequality
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Less Proficient
America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007
More Proficient
Prediction/Idea/Decision Markets
and the Wisdom of Crowds
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Aggregation of opinions is the new frontier for prediction/ innovation/
decisionmaking. Google realized there was hidden opinion order in an
apparently chaotic net. PageRank captured that order, created much
more relevant search.
Avoids bias. Michael Jensen, HBS, “Forecasting is paying people to lie.”
Sample Internal Markets:
Eli Lilly. Drug efficacy and market size.
Siemens. Software project length.
Google. Over 200 markets (experimental)
Microsoft. Software development.
Hewlett-Packard. Sales projections.
Three Requirements:
1. Cognitive Diversity (“The Difference”)
2. Independence
3. Aggregation Tools (still primitive)
Real Money Markets:
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Play Money/Reputation Markets:
Cognitive Diversity in Small Groups
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Diversity and Optimality (1998). Lu Hong, Scott E. Page, Dept. of Econ,
Syracuse U, and Dept. of Econ., U. of Iowa, 27 p.
A general [computational] model of diverse problem solvers of limited
abilities. We use this model to derive two main results: (1) a collection of
diverse, bounded problem solvers can locate optimal solutions to difficult
problems and (2) a collection of problem solvers of diverse abilities tends
to jointly outperform a collection of high ability problem solvers, where a
problem solver's ability equals her expected individual performance.
Diversity is as important as ability for:
• Poorly defined problems (nonlinear
optimization, prediction, horiz. scanning…)
• High degrees of freedom problems
• Innovation
• What else?
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See also:
Symbiotic Intelligence Project
Norman Johnson, LANL
http://ishi.lanl.gov/
Experts versus Groups, By Problem Type
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Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
“Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism
Life Cycle, Growth Curves,
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
MEST Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Development
Evo Devo
(Intersection)
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
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Evolution and Development in Universal Terms:
A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
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Some Key Conjectures:
Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.
Development is intelligence/information preservation.
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively
use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we
can understand, value, and work with both.
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Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.
Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.
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Evolution vs. Development:
Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe
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Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:
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Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local
processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin.
Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same.
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The Lesson:
(Predictable and conservative) development is always different from
but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes.
Both are fundamental to universal complexity.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political
dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without continuous
change/creativity creates sterility, clonality,
overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability
creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally
stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and
Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in
two complementary ways. That would make each integral,
fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo
mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.
Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues
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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age
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• AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry
― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI
― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing
faster than decision support, agents, evo AI
― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms
• Translation, Natural Language Processing, and
Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly
(Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems)
Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.
• Coming: Conversational Interface (CI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture/Valuecosm
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens is on the Horizon
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“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Can get up when he falls or
when you knock him down)
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Aibo Soccer
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IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the
Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
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Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a much more
efficient communication
modality.
Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in
face-to-face human conversation
is nonverbal.
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2002
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age
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A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
A
time when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
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Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
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Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
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“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
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Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
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