Transcript Document
Evo Devo Universe?
A Speculative Framework for Thinking about the Future in a World of Accelerating Technological Change
Bay Area Future Salon
SAP Labs
Palo Alto, CA April 2009 John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice
evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies,
a model of change that proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future
and
2. Contingent and unpredictable developmental destinations.
evolutionary choices may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable we
Some
developmental trends
that may be
intrinsic
to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – –
Accelerating intelligence , interdependence
in our global sociotechnological systems and
immunity
Increasing technological
autonomy
, and Increasing
intimacy
digital interface.
of the human-machine and physical-
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto EvoDevoUniverse.com
is a global community of
physicists
,
chemists
,
biologists
,
cognitive
and
social scientists
,
technologists
,
philosophers
, and
complexity
and
systems theorists
who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between
evolutionary (mostly unpredictable)
and
developmental (significantly predictable)
processes in the universe and its subsystems.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
My Talk Goals and Motivations
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
To better understand the
universe
balancing
processes
.
and its opposing and To ask if the following process concepts make sense: – – – – –
universal progress/intelligence improvement accelerating progress/intelligence improvement universal evolution and development evolutionary process (purpose, teleology) developmental destiny (purpose, teleology)
To understand the
powerfully levers
that are most
rapidly
moving the world in a
progressive
and direction.
To learn how to make better personal, organizational, and democratic
decisions
to support
positive change
.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
My Talk Goals and Motivations - II
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
To better understand
evil
,
imbalance
, and
maladaptiveness
within a theory of universal evolution and development.
To better understand and assess
global and societal risks
and
risk management
(vigilance, resiliency), within the context of
historical accelerating progress
(apparent intrinsic developmental
immune systems
).
To understand the apparent
balance
between: – – –
accelerating experimentation/creativity/evolution accelerating adapt ation / intell igence / prog ress ,
and
accelerating sustainability/immunity/resiliency
(noting that we have yet to well articulate this last concept).
To learn how to live more
balanced
lives individually, organizationally and culturally, and to have
goals consistent
with the goals of the
universe
we are embedded within. To know our developmental
limits
and
constraints
.
My Talk Goals and Motivations - III
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
( To improve the
IPU
,
EDU
, and
precision DS
and
clarity
hypotheses).
of the main hypotheses To make specific
predictions
(how things must happen) and
retrodictions
(how things must have happened) from the hypotheses, which can be falsified or verified.
To recruit other publishing scholars to join us in conversations on these topics at
EvoDevoUniverse.com
To recruit thoughtful folks to read and comment on my book,
Evo Devo Universe
, at
books.accelerating.org
(2010).
To tell
better stories
about the
future
(to improve our
collective social foresight
).
To recruit everyone to
join us
in telling better stories about the future at
futurepedia.org
(2010).
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Serenity Prayer in an Evo Devo Universe: Negotiating Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation
“ Universe, grant me the change (devo bottlenecks, what the universe wants) the courage serenity the system/ constraint), and the to accept and understand the framework of things I can to create the things I want inside this framework (as evo/creation is as basic to the universe as devo/maintenance of wis dom ’ to t adapt well (gain plasticity and resiliency, thrive in both punctuation and equilibrium) in my (finite individual, indefinite collective) time.
”
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
2020-2050 Scenarios
The Valuecosm Society / The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
The IA AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’ a Human-Machine Superorganism
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Biologist
William Wheeler
, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social animals are parts of “superorganisms.” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct.
Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism
, 1994
Understanding Process Automation
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Perhaps
80%
of today's First World paycheck is paid for by
automation
(“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (
20%?
) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).
Continual education
and
grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Termite Mound
Biologically-Inspired Technology and Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Today we have
weakly
biologically-inspired computing technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms, developmental genetic programming, belief networks, support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc.) When such systems become:
Strongly
biologically-inspired
Extensively self-improving
(semi-autonomous)
Leading strategies
for creating complex systems Only then may the “technological singularity” be near.
For more, attend:
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary system? Select for symbiosis.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Look at how we do it in domesticated animals (10,000 years, 5,000 breeding cycles). How many breeds of dogs and cats can you trust with small children?
Military will always have the warbots (narrowly trustable) Most breeds of robotic systems will be generally trustable, all will be trustable for their missions, or we won’t build them using evolutionary processes.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Boston Dynamics BigDog
Humbot 1.0: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our Global Network Society?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Sputnik
(1957)
Humbot 0.1
(2005)
Humbot 1.0
(2030) U.S.-Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U.S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Q: Will a U.S.-led consortium supply the world with Humbot 1.0?
Or will a Chinese, Japanese, or Korean-led consortium beat us to it?
This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
Codebreaking
follows a logistic curve.
Collective NLP
may as well. Date Avg. Query Platform
1998 1.3 words Altavista
Average spoken
2005 2.6 words Google
human-to-human
2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp
query length is
Los Angeles New York 2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain 11 words.
Smart, J (2003) The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:
A time when computers “speak our language.”
A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.
A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.
A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality
‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2006) New York Palo Alto Wearcam.org’s first-gen ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) iPhone (Apple 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2020?
Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel
is a much more efficient communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2002
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (
Brian Arthur
, SFI)
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm
(Smart),
2030’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Advent of the CyberTwin, Circa 2020: Biggest Single Change We May See In our Lifetimes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Consider the implications for: Subculture Diversity and Representation Global Comm and Collab (no lang barrier) Digital Divide (disappears) Accountablity of Powerful Actors Data Security and Privacy Crime and Fraud Public Relations Manipulation Reputation Systems and Transparency Socio-Economic-Political Democracy Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) Personal Empowerment (20% of us?) Addiction/Dependency (80% of us?)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The Leader’s Challenge: Guiding Us to “Plural Positive” Futures
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Pluralistic Positive-Sum
Differentiated
“Both/And”
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Social-Tech
( Top-Down, Devo )
Calculator Prolif.
Automation Incr.
Metaverse Adv.
Automated Cars Digital Twins
Security
versus versus versus versus
AND
AND AND AND AND AND AND Plutocratic Zero-Sum Homogeneous “Either/Or”
Futures Individual advance
( Bottom-Up, Evo )
Math Skills Work/Prod. Skills Study/Reading Skills Driving Skills Self-Empowerment
Freedom
(to & from)
Informational Physical Univ. Hypothesis
Universe as an Informational, Physical, and Computational System
IPU Hypothesis: Informational and Physical Structures/Processes make Universal Complexity Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Universal Complexity/Change seems to be: 1. Informational and Physical 2. Compu tational (A fusion of both structures/processes) 3. All three (IPC) when viewed from different perspectives.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto C ompu tational
(Adaptive) Psychology, Intelligence Orga nism
I nformational
Structure and Process
P hysical
Structure and Process
“Informational” / “Physical” duality, and its integration
IPU Hypothesis: Cartesian “Experiential” / “Material” Dualism, and Its Integration Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit C ompu tation
Mind / Body (In Complex Systems)
Experiential/ Conceptual Universe Material/ Physical Universe ( informational ‘degrees of freedom’) ( physical fundamentals and ‘constraints’)
All material systems have material (embodied) and experiential (‘conceptual’) aspects. Whitehead’s Panexperientialism: Simpler material systems do not have cognition or mind, but they do have a simple nonmaterial nature to go with their simple ‘body’ (Alfred North Whitehead, 1925).
Lovelock’s Gaia hypothesis: Earth is engaged in complex climatologic self-regulation, which ‘looks like’ primitive thinking/experiencing/modeling. The panexperientialist aspect of this, like mind in humans, will not be easily amenable to reductionist causal analysis.
Mind / Body is an adap ted form of intell igence , an integ rated ( Information / Physics ) dualism .
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis: Kant’s “Practical / Principle” Dualism, and Its Integration C ompu tation
Mind / Body (In Complex Systems)
Practical Non-Natural/Moral
Empirical Results
Messy, Contingent Variable, Indeterminate, Contextual ( informational ‘degrees of freedom’) Principle Natural/Amoral
Theoretical Relations
Clean, Invariant Stable, Determinate, Predictable ( physical fundamentals and ‘constraints’)
Epistemic Dualism: Kant sees two fundamental types humans (and by Whitehead’s extension, all other complex systems), the practical and the principle-based forms of understanding .
of ‘intelligibility’ being engaged in by Los Angeles Our Palo Alto 95 / 5 Rule (to be discussed): From our perspective, ~ 95% of change looks like practice . Only ~ 5% looks like principle
IPU Hypothesis: Wheeler’s “Bit” / “It” Duality, and Its Integration Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Universal Complexity/Change is: 1. Informational and Physical (QM/GR, Contextual/Predictable) 2. Compu tational (A fusion of both structures/processes) 3. All three (IPC) when viewed from different perspectives.
C ompu tation
Mind / Body (In Complex Systems)
Informational / “Bit” Observer/Creator
(Unique Relational)
Yes/No Q.M.,
Symmetry Breaking
Variable, Indeterm., Contextual Physical / “It” Observed/Constrained
(Persistent Relational)
G.R.,
Conserved Symmetry
Stable, Determinate, Predictable Los Angeles Physical nature is deterministic contextual observation, is both , but Informational inaccurate nature, which must be based on and partly indeterminate/creative .
IPU Hypothesis Summary: An Observation-Centric, Intelligence-Centric Perspective Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Informational Physica l processes create emerging mind breaks, adapt ation , embodied intell igence .
and body , symmetry At the quantum scale, collapse of an observed wave function moves electrons from possibility to actuality (“ Bit ” and “ It ”). This occurs via any ‘observer:’ physical, chemical, living, or technological.
QM effects seem likely to be fully decoupled from macroscopic mind-body systems, but even so, we still see the observer creating informationally unique physical and mental constructs (gene and meme combinations) and the envir. selecting on those to create
intelli gence
/
adap ted mod els
of reality.
GR also has this observer observed duality, as one’s relative reference frame determines what one sees: different experiences for different obse rvers .
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Mind/ Body “ Bit ”/“ It ” Observer/Observed Intell igence Informational
Empirical Results
Messy, Contingent Variable, Indeterminate, Contextual Physical
Theoretical Relations
Clean, Invariant Stable, Determinate, Predictable Informational Observables Physical Observables
“The Universals” in (Platonic) and Aristotelian Ethics: The Beautiful, the Good, the True (and the Real) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Werner Heisenberg, 1920s. * Elemental professions are the Artists , Polit icians (‘Good’), & Scientists Howard Gardner, The Disciplined Mind, 1999 * Education should balance Aesthetics , Mora lity , and Truth-Seeking.
Go od “Ethos” (Authority) (Adaptation, Selection, Competition & Collaboration, Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration, Intelligence, Ethics, Philo sophy ) Beautiful “Pathos” (Feeling) The Real (Sensed & Unsensed) True “Logos” (Logic/Words) (Creativity, Imagination, (Discovery, Evidence, Intuition, Induction, Belief ) Reason, Deduction, Science ) Los Angeles New York technology advances but less so in Evolution aesthetics and mora lity Development truth , giving great science and , imbalancing the classical triad. We can restore the balance.
“The Universals” in Jacob Bronowski’s Worldview: Belief/Imagination, Philos./Practice/Values, Science/Proof Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Belief (what we imagine and accept without proof), Science we can prove today), and Philo sophy , Practical Knowledge (what and Val ues (bridges from belief to proof), seem to be three fundamental modes of human inquiry. The last also seems a mix of the first two.
A complete education should balance Creativity/Imagination , Philo sophy / Prac tice / Val ues , and Skepticism / Proof-Seeking.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Systems
Philo sophy (Adaptation, Selection, Competition & Collaboration, Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration, Ethics, Practical Knowl., Philosophy)
Systems
Belief (Creativity, Imagination, Intuition, Induction, Belief) Evolution
Systems
Science (Discovery, Evidence, Reason, Deduction, Science) Development
“The Universals” in Foresight Studies (Amara 1981): Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Possible (what we imagine and believe may happen), Prefe rable (what we want to happen), and Probable (what we expect will happen, whether we want it or not) are basic foresight domains .
Businesses address these #1 first, #2 sometimes, and #3 rarely.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 1. Prefe rable
Futures (“Planning”)
(Consensus, Leadership, Policy, Planning, Roadmaps, Surveys) 3. Possible
Futures (“Foresight”)
(Horizon Scanning, Games, Scenarios, Visioning, Wildcards) 2. Probable
Futures (“Forecasting”)
(Actuarial Science, Delphi, Forecasting, Prediction Markets) Evolution Development
“The Universals” in Daily Life: Creativity/Innovation, Work/Productivity, and Sustainability/Maintenance Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Creativity (novelty, recreation, innovation, experimentation), Wo rk we do that is socially preferable/‘productive’), and Sustainability (what (the constraints we must operate within, whether we want to or not) are basic domains of daily life.
Personal Organizational Personal Organizational Wo rk (Income Gen., Social Learning, Social Productivity, Exercise) Personal Organizational Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Creativity (Innovation, Recreation, Art, Basic Research, Experiment) Evolution Sustainability (Maintenance, Conservation, Health, Ecosystem, Sleep, Limits) Development
Socrates and Hegel’s ‘Dialectic Triad’ Is this All We Are Doing? Or Is There a Deeper Basis?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Dialectics
is a method of argument, the term dating to
Socratic dialog
Ancient Greece, involving
two parties or positions,
and an
attempt to
in
synthesize
at least some level of
agreement or commonality.
To
Hegel
(and to some degree Kant, Fichte, etc.), all material
things
conceptual
ideas
have ‘internal contradictions’, which can often be expressed as
two alternative analytical perspectives
. These inner and contradictions,
working together and against each other
, eventually move the thing/idea to a higher-level
integration
or
unification
.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Synt hesis
( Orga nism, ‘ Beco ming’ )
Socrates 469-399 BCE Thesis (1776) (e.g., Parts, ‘Nothingness’) GWF Hegel 1770-1831 Antithesis (e.g, Wholes, ‘Being’)
Evolution and Development
Two Fundamental Processes of Change
Evolution: A Tentative Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
stochastic
(random within constraints), creative, divergent (
variation creating
), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable. This
intrinsic unpredictability
may be our most useful
quantitative definition
and
discriminator
of evolutionary processes at all systems levels. Note:
Evolution is NOT natural selection
, in this definition. Its fundamental dynamic is
change and variation
(within constraints). It is a
creativity generator
, and thus a
precursor
to natural selection.
Example: Genetic drift in
neutral theory
(Kimura 1983; Leigh 2007).
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution is Random, Chaotic, Contingent: Examples: Tree of Life, Vestigial Structures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
There’s no inherent directionality to evolutionary change, other than
increased variety over time.
On average, a species adapting to a niche may almost as easily become less complex as more complex (ex: remoras, blind cave fish).
Vestigial structures abound:
true human tails
,
supernumerary nipples
, whale and dolphin
atavistic legs
, etc.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Development: A (Tentative) Definition Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
directional
, hierarchical, constraining, convergent, integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and
statistically
predictable if you have the right
empirical
or
theoretical
aids. This
systemic predictability
may be our most useful
quantitative definition
and
discriminator
of developmental processes at all systems levels.
Development also has a
cyclical hierarchy
: birth, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling).
Note:
Development is NOT natural selection
, in this definition. It is
convergent unifier
, and thus a
specialized outcome
of natural selection.
Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity, evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity, scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Development is Statistically Deterministic, Self Ordering, and “Robust” to Contingencies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Just a
few hundred
developmental genes “ride herd” over massive molecular evolutionary chaos.
Yet two genetic twins look, in many respects, identical.
How is that?
They’ve been tuned, cyclically, for a
future-specific convergent emergent order
, in a stable development niche.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Origination of Organismal Form
, M üller and Newman, 2003
Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis
Universe as an Evolving and Developing System
Evo Devo Universe? – An Article
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
We can begin to model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary and developmental system as an
evo compu devo universe
(abbrev.
evo devo universe
hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable,
evolutionary
features of universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and
developmental
universal trends, including:
Acceleration
in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen over the
last half
—but not the first half—of the universe’s history Increasing spatial and temporal
locality
development of universal complexity Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy
efficient
energy
dense
and matter and ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly
postbiological
(technological) systems of physical transformation and computation.
Smart, John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture. In:
Cosmos and Culture
, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).
Evo Devo Universe hypothesis
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others).
Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic embryogenesis,’ if the Big Bang
acts like
a seed, and the expanding universe
like
an embryo, it must use both stochastic, contingent, and local/micro ‘variational’ processes—what we are calling
evolution
—in its elaboration of form and function, just as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo. Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable, convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of somatic (body) life —what we are calling
development
. If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
• In
genetically identical twins
, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, many
local, microscopic
processes are
unpredictably unique
in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many
global, macroscopic
processes are
predictably the same
.
• Would
parametrically identical universes
also be mostly and locally unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic similarities? This is a question for future simulation science.
The Hypothesis:
(Predictable and conservative)
development
is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative)
evolutionary processes
.
Both seem fundamental
to universal complexity.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model I Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Assumption: A universe of
computation
(informationally complex patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with
evolution
and
development
as complementary modes of
information processing
in all complex adaptive systems, including the universe as a system.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model II “Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Radiation “Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation “Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Self-Organization , Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Com pu (Evo Devo) (Inter section) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Universal Evolution and Development: Bilateral Processes
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Key Conjectures Evolution
causes ongoing
unpredictability Development
causes
cyclic predictability
and and
novelty stability
.
.
Evolution
drives most
unique local
patterns.
Development
drives most
predictable global
patterns.
Evolution
is intelligence/adaptation
accumulation
.
Development
is intelligence/adaptation
preservation
.
Li fe , Intell igence , and the Univ erse evo and devo must use both processes to emerge and persist.
Individually
, each process has
conflicting
and
contrasting aims (functions, purposes, telos).
Together,
they are
complementary, and a complementary evo devo teleology must exist.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the better we can understand, value, and work with both.
Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Universal Evolution and Development: A Bilateral Bias?
We are bilateral organisms, on a bilateral (two poled, spinning) planet.
We are biased to be bilateral forms in a 3D world, and we may also be biased to see the universe from a bilateral perspective.
Or we may see bilaterality because the cosmos is driven by two fundamental groups of processes, each complementing the other.
Organ ismic complexity emerges from two basic processes: evolution and development .
The Palo Alto Evo Los Angeles New York Devo emergence of Univ univ erse ersal hypothesis proposes these two processes are also basic to the complexity.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Biological Complexity Can Be Analyzed From Three Fundamental Perspectives Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Mature evo devo 3. accelerating theory will need to explain: 1. evolutionary experiment/creativity/divergence, 2. developmental constraint/conservatism/convergence, and orga nismic adapt ation / plast icity / intell igence Adapt ation
( Orga nism )
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution, Reductionism Development, Wholism
Theory of Facilitated Variation: “How Development Facilitates Evolution” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit An evo devo theory which seeks to explain how phenotypic complexity arises from a very limited number of genes and variation mechanisms, by dividing variation into two fundamental types: 1. Deconstrained Exploratory (i.e., ‘ Evolutionary ’) processes, primarily affecting the regulation of Core processes.
2. Constrained Core (i.e., ‘ Developmental ’) processes
Exploratory processes create
many phenotypes
of genes from very limited set
Comp lexity
(Adaptation) Orga nism Core processes are
robust
to many exploratory alterations of phenotype
Deconstrained Constrained
Gene Recomb & Expression
‘Exploratory’ Processes
Gene Recomb & Expression
‘Core’ Processes Los Angeles New York
Unconserved, Unpredictable
Gerhart J, Kirschner M.
Conserved, Predictable 2007. " The theory of facilitated variation ".
PNAS USA.
104(S1):8582 –9
.
Evo Devo in Creation and Control: The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The vast majority (we may roughly propose
95
% ) of the
information
and
computation
to describe and model both
creation
of a new CAS or hierarchy or
control
in a mature CAS or hierarchy involves
bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes
. A minor yet critical contribution (again, let us roughly propose
5%
) comes from
top-down, systemic, developmental processes .
Ex: No of genes used (and highly conserved) in
developmental toolkit
in any species (eg.,
Dictyostelium, 2-3%
), vs. the much larger number of ‘evolutionary’ genes that are more frequently modified and affect
phenotype variation
, not development.
The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal development been difficult
not in physics
and
chemistry
(where we have made great strides, e.g., mechanics, relativity, particle physics) but in
biology
,
society
, and
technology
. In these latter substrates, which are
not yet ergodic
, the time scale of the (‘5%’) nonrandom developmental signal is
much longer
than the (‘95%’) near-random evolutionary signal.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Universal Evolution and Universal Development: Four Centuries of Selective Scientific Advancement Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Post-Enlightenment science
has made great strides uncovering mechanisms of
biological
and to some extent
social macroevolution (
contingent
variation and selection). But universal macroevolution (including quantum selectionism )
remains
speculative
at present
.
With
Universal, biological,
and
social macrodevelopment (
convergent
variation and selection, progress , acceleration )
, by contrast,
only universal development ( mechanics , thermodynamics , relativity, high energy physics )
has really advanced.
Bio
and
social
development remain
hard to understand
scientifically.
Univ. Evo Bio. Evo Social Evo Adapt ation
( Orga nism )
Univ. Devo Bio. Devo Social Devo Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (1997) (1859) (1776) Evolution, Reductionism (1916) (1864) Development, Wholism (1759)
Universal Evolution and Development: Five Adaptive Hierarchical Substrates
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Universal change to date has proceeded through an evolutionary developmental
hierarchy
of increasingly
complex
(more unique material relations),
intelligent (
higher-order information processing) and
adaptive computational subst rates . Five
are proposed below.
Astrotechnology,
the
italicized
substrate, is not yet autonomous.
The underlined systems within these substrates are not known to be replicative, unless our universe replicates in the
multiverse.
1. AstroPhysics
(Universe-as-CAS, constants and laws, space-time, energy-matter)
2. AstroChemistry
(galaxies, stars, planets, molecules in inorganic and organic chemistry)
3. AstroBiology
(cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies)
4. AstroSociology
(culture, human disciplines of economics, law, sci., engineering, etc.)
5. AstroTechnology
(engines, cities, biology inspired computing, postbiological ‘life’)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Integration (‘Dialectic’): An Accelerating Arrow of Universal Complexity Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo Devo Dynamic: Random Walks, Divergent Unique Creativity Dynamic: ‘Inward Spiral’ of Increasingly Local Substrate Transitions Engine: Cosmic Expansion/Free Energy Flow Steering: Evo Devo Integration Info Theory/Physics: Informational Expansion/STEM Compression
Selectionist Evo and Deterministic Devo Processes Are Found On All Scales, In the Universe and On Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Selectionist Evo and Deterministic
• • • • • • • •
Devo Processes in the Universe: Evo: Spontaneous and contingent symmetry breaking (Yoichiro Nambu) Devo: Tuned Quantum initial conditions, laws, constants ( anthropic princ./fine tuning ) relativistic spacetime emergence ( Jan Ambjørn ) Selectionist and statistical thermodynamics (Ping Ao) Classical Gala ctic from quantum physics (Quantum Darwinism , Wojciech Zurek)) and molec ular cloud evolution / development (Leonard Searle) Stel lar elem ental plan etary Univ ersal evolution / development (Donald Clayton) replication (a bounded, finite system) (Lee Smolin) Evo
• • • • • • • •
and Devo Processes on Earth: Biog enesis /Chemical Euka ryotes (from Evo Proka Devo ryotic /Prok aryotes Diversity and (D. Eric Smith) Symbiosis ) (Lynn Margulis) Multicell ularity Indiv iduals and Ge (biological ne Regu orga lation nisms (John Gerhart, Mark Kirschner) ) (Mary Jane West-Eberhard, Leo Buss) Organ izations Soci eties ( (Kevin Kelly, Robert Aunger superorga nisms ) ) (Edmund O. Wilson, Robert Wright) Pla nets ( Planet ization , Pierre Teilhard, Howard Bloom, Greg Stock) Univ erse (as a bounded, finite system) (Lee Smolin, James Gardner, Me) While all of these (and other) systems are important to science, the last five underlined scales seem particularly useful perspectives for humanity.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
‘
Quantum Darwinism’
in the transition from quantum to classical physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005) Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008)
‘Neural Darwinism’
in brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998) Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger, Blackmore) Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza)
Cosmological natural selection
(Smolin 1992)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels (Evolution, Adaptive Systems, and Development)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The marbles roll around on the landscape (
system
), each taking unpredictable (
evolutionary
) paths . But the paths predictably converge (
development
) on low points (“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin.
STEM compression
is a key feature of the attractors.
‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’: Developmental Portals (Bottlenecks) Must Exist Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Are portals/bottlenecks leading to increasing complexity plentiful or rare? Are portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly distributed?
Are they divergent, convergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?
Los Angeles
Crutchfield, J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P. (eds.),
Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function
.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Developmental Bottleneck – Carbon Chemistry
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Genesis of Chemical Elements
Carbon is the
only
way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles.
Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS), and
both
of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in small, Population I stars like our Sun
Developmental Bottleneck? Lipids and RNA Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Lipids and RNA may be the
only
way from organic chemistry to cells! RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all
form spontaneously
in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors on meteorites). Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from
cyanide
,
acetylene
and
water
.
Sugars form from
alkali
and
formaldehyde
Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents.
Sutherland et. al., mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase) Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”) destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind
C
and
U
.
RNA is presently the
only
known molecule that can both reproduce itself and catalyze protein production (ribozymes) RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth,
Scientific American
, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions,
Nature
V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Developmental Bottleneck? Oxygen/Nitrogen Atmosphere for Water Photosynthesis Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Only visible-infrared light gets through our atmosphere and the first few feet of our water with any efficiency.
Water-based photosynthesis (blue-green algae, Photosystem I) had to evolve (develop) inside this narrow fitness region (bottleneck), and is likely chained to this bottleneck everywhere else as well.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Bottleneck, Sun-Earth Coevolution, Or Other Expected Physics? Our Sun’s Spectral Output is Optimized for Visible-Infrared Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Our Sun puts out almost all its radiant energy in the spectral band absorbable by our atmosphere and water and useful to life, and virtually none in those regions harmful to life
Is this some expected physical process like Weak Anthropic Principle (observer dependent sorting), Strong Anthropic Principle (Universal Developmental Process), Sun-Earth Coevolution, or? Also, what is the random probably of such a fortuitous Sun-Earth fit? Could solar wind sort atmospheric gases like this?
Evo vs. Devo: Fanout, Adaptation, Bottleneck Understanding Variation, Selection, and Conservation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
If the
tape of life
were
played twice
on
two Earth-like environments (astrobiology)
or in
two Universes
with same init. conditions (
evo devo U
):
1. Devo bottlenecks
(grey pinchers) would
predictably
be
same/very similar.
2. Evo fanouts adaptations
to generate selectable diversity, on the way to
devo bottlenecks
and most (95%?) selections/ would be
unpredictably different.
Evo Fanout Devo Bottleneck Evo Devo Adapt ation ( Competition , Cooperation ) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Information
is ‘a difference that makes a difference’.
Evolution generates/accumulates
info
(perhaps 95% of it) Development conserves/sustains Evo Devo sele cts , ada pts
info info
(perhaps 5% of it) (turns info knowledge, wisdom, etc.), sometimes punctuating/innovating , sometimes stabilizing/optimizing .
Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Biology: A Few Tentative Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Bottlenecks Variation Adaptation Carbon chemistry (for all viable life) Replic. carbohydrates (RNA world) and fats (lipid membranes), then proteins (modern cells) Energetics: H2S chemo-synthesis (1 st life) later, visible light (photosynth and vision) Other organic molecular species (B, Si are
false variation
, not viable) Specific supramolecular structures of most cell components Subtypes and specific structural and enzymatic uses, other organic polymers Various visible light frequencies (other freq’s are
false variation
) DNA (inert, replicating sugar phosphate) as stable info carrier
Blue-Grn
vision photosystms, tri- and quad-chromatic Nucleated cells (for complex life) Bilateral symmetry, two eyes, hands, etc. (for tool manipulation) Location & number of nucleations L vs. R asymmetries (other symm. choices are
false variation
)
Mito + Nuclear
DNA Left-sided heart, right sided liver in humans
Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Technology: A Few Tentative Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Bottlenecks Variation Adaptation Round and flaked rocks for group rock-throwing The wheel: 1-wheeled barrows, 2-wheel bikes, 4-wheeled carts & cars Bilateral road traffic symmetry Gunpowder, cannons, and guns Combustion engines (external and internal) Electricity Computers and human surpassing robots Variations in size, shape, composition One to multi-wheeled vehicles, active and passive balancing.
L vs. R asymmetries Particular Acheulean tool kits (1.7m-200Kya) Each culture’s mix of one, two, three, four, and more wheeled vehicles L-sided in one country, right-sided in another Many types and combinations. Fireworks in China, no guns in Japan for 250 yrs Type of organic burned (wood, coal, oil, gas) Variety of usable engine designs, fuel mixes.
DC vs AC, voltage diffs Variety of engineering solutions & strategies Competing standards, each locally useful Diff. blends of employment vs. automation.
Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Society: A Few Tentative Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Bottlenecks Agricultural-Domestic Society Industrial Society Regulated Capitalism with Property Rights Rep. Democracy, Soc. Justice, Entitlements Information-Automation Society Variation Variety of plants/farming animals/husbandry Variety of machine designs, energy sources Variety of private and collective property schemes Order of voting/rights/ entitlemnt acquisitions (child, women, slaves) Order and variety of automations, degree of job protection, IP protection, public benefits (education, etc.) Adaptation Feudal, Small Farm, Sharecropper, etc.
Manchester factories, Ford’s assembly line ‘Freer-Market’, Regul., and Autocratic Capitalism Freer vs. Stricter Social Democracies, National Justice Codes Japanese automation & xenophobia, US free market, Scandinavian mixed economy, African leapfrogging
‘Inevitables’ (Bottleneck Structures) Are Differentially Adapted (Diversely Regulated) But Remain Variable Only In the Short Run Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Example: Guns in Japan vs. Elsewhere
The Japanese govt. was strong enough to ban guns for centuries. First guns (
arquebus
, right) came with Portuguese in 1543, used in many massed battles. By 1600 Japan had world's best guns, but they were increasingly regulated and finally banned by centralized samurai clan (Tokugawa clan) for
250 years
.
As
inevitables,
guns eventually
had
to reemerge. But they did so
on Japanese terms.
Japan retains a strong police force and collectivist society today.
As of 2006 there are only 175K registered owners of 340K guns in Japan. In US: ~40 million gun owners, ~180 million guns.
Japan has the lowest gun crime rate of any industrialized nation (93 gun deaths in 1998, vs 36,000 in US. Japan has 130M vs. US 300M citizens).
All 175K gun owners were mass-checked after 2007 Sasebo shooting ‘rampage’ (2 deaths, 6 injuries). 90 were ‘declared unfit to own’ guns.
2008 laws prevent stalkers, spouse abusers, suicidal, and bankrupts from owning guns, including hunting guns, for an extended period of time.
Fifteen year sentences for owning illegal guns, death penalty for org. crime murder by gun, police raids on suspected illegal gun owners, etc.
Major observation: Every other industrialized nation (Australia, Europe, etc.) is trending strongly in this postmilitary, postviolent direction (Pinker,
Myth of Violence
). Just the
outliers
(US, Brazil, Mexico, Estonia, etc.) remain.
Gun story foretells a Plane tized level of social integration and immunity.
Evolutionary Convergence
A Process of Universal Development
How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution
tried this experiment.
Development
calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g.
Xantusia vigilis,
and certain skinks
)
still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal?
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - I Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Some homoplasies greatly advance
individual and cultural information processing and adaptation
in a broad range of environments, for the
first
species that acquire them. Simon Conway Morris (
Life’s Solution
, 2004):
eyes
,
jointed limbs
,
body plans
,
emotions
,
imagination
,
language
,
opposable thumbs
,
tool use
, etc.
The streamlined shape of
fish fins
, first created as an
evolutionary
of
all
morphological experiment, must persist in the genes organisms seeking to move rapidly through water on
all
Earth like planets, as a
universal developmental constraint
imposed by the physics of our universe. In an ICU universe, such advances are
‘evolutionary ratchets’
(function randomly acquired but statistically irreversible once acquired, in a broad range of environments), a type of
developmental optima
(for a given level of environmental complexity) in all universes of our type.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Many homoplasies look like
developmental attractors
in an
adaptive informational computational
universe: Organic (carbon) chem (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) Autocatalytic sets (Eigen, Varela, Kauffman) Protein, sugar, fat precursors (amino acids, purines and pyrimidines, pre-lipids) RNA as enzyme and code (Woese) Dynamical patterning modules (Newman & Bhat 2008) Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, etc. (Morris) Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Bipedalism, opposable thumbs, anthropoid form Gestural, oral, written mimicry (languages) Tool use (rock, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) Internal combustion engine, telegraph, internet Math, science, democracy, computers, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Convergence as a ‘Directional’ Signal (of Universal Development) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
The eye has arisen at least
five
diff. times, in lineages as diverse as snails and jellyfish. A highly convergent ‘Camera-eye’ emerged in both cephalopods (octopus) and vertebrates (whale). Intelligence (cognitive maps, memory, mind, self awareness, emotion) all convergent. Cetacean, ape, and crow intelligence are all strikingly similar.
Different molecular genetic pathways now known for some convergences (e.g.,
antifreeze
in Northern vs. Southern hemisphere coldwater fish) Evolutionary convergence experiments now underway (Richard Lenski,
e. coli,
40,000 generations, est. tens to hundreds of substitutions in parallel populations. Adaptive substitutions seen in the same few genes)
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Dale Russell
, 1982:
Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor.
A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed
bipedalism
,
binocular vision
, complex hands with
opposable thumbs
, and
brain-to-body ratios
equivalent to modern
birds
. They were
intelligent pack-hunters
of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both
diurnally
and
nocturnally
. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago.
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Examples: Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
worldvaluessurvey.org
It may be that everyone ends up like
Sweden
, more or less.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolutionary Convergence to the Superorganism? The stunningly niche-dominant social insects
Why are only 2% of the 900,000 insect species social insects?
Why does this 2%
weigh more than all other insects combined
the Amazon rainforest)?
(and a stunning 80% of animal biomass in Escalation of power/mass/intelligence in competition (
Evolution and Escalation
, Vermeij) They use both social and individual levels of computation (
Lucifer Principle
, Bloom). Competitive exclusion once the social computation niche is occupied?
Do social insects cause most insect extinctions (invasion theory) Are humans doing the same thing?
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Evo Compu Devo Triad
Universal Values for Complex Systems?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model “Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Radiation “Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation “Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Self-Organization , Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, ( Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Com pu (Evo Devo) (Inter section) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) in Complex Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in:
Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems
Our Universe as a System
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as
either
:
1. Adaptive Systems 2. Evo Devo Systems
(making their evo and devo processes implicit), (making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems
(keeping all three perspectives explicit).
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Serenity Prayer in an Evo Devo Universe: Negotiating Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation
“ Universe, grant me the change (devo bottlenecks, what the universe wants) the courage serenity the system/ constraint), and the to accept and understand the framework of things I can to create the things I want inside this framework (as evo/creation is as basic to the universe as devo/maintenance of wis dom ’ to t adapt well (gain plasticity and resiliency, thrive in both punctuation and equilibrium) in my (finite individual, indefinite collective) time.
”
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common Mathematical Relationships in Complex Systems
S curve Power law Bell curve
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Three Fundamental Modes of Selection
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 1. Evo 2. Devo Selection (power law spreadouts , competition) Selection (log normal centricity , cooperation) 3. Evo Devo Selection ( punctuated and stabilization).
equilibrium S curve , alternating punctuation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Power law Punctu ating and Stabil izing Selec tion
( Orga nism )
Bell curve Divergent Selection (Competitive) Evo / “Natural Selection” Self-Organizing Selection (Cooperative) Devo / “Self-Organization”
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
S curves and B curves / Life cycle curves
How complex systems (coll. & indiv.) perform over time
♦ Biology - how populations grow in finite niches or under competition ♦ Epidemiology - the spreading and saturation of epidemics, AIDS, etc.
♦ Psychology – cumulative learning/performance in a new domain ♦ Technology - how new technologies diffuse and substitute ♦ Energy - diffusion and substitution of primary energy sources ♦ Industry - learning/experience curves in production ♦ Market - new product share growth ♦ Security - crime rates in developing cities, planetary conflict rates ♦ Demographics - human population growth on a finite planet ♦ Transportation – performance and capacity of each platform
New York Palo Alto
Good Intro Text Nice Grad Text
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Saturation in Macroscale S Curves: a.k.a. Terminal Differentiation of the ‘Tree’ of Development
Genesis of Chemical Elements Note that four of six most common elements in life (and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur) are formed in small, Pop I stars like our Sun Metazoan Cell Types (‘Tree’ of Embryonic Development)
Family Origination Rates On Earth
Evolution and Escalation
, Vermiej, 1987
Saturation occurs in the development of complex adaptive systems at every level New York of universal hierarchy, from cosmic elements to cell types to family types.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Metazoan Toolkit: Pre-Cambrian Accelerating Emergence of Conserved Phenotypic-Genetic Structure and Process Los Angeles New York Gerhart J, Kirschner M.
2007. " The theory of facilitated variation ".
PNAS USA.
104(S1):8582 –9
.
Facilitated Variation Thesis: Terminal Differentiation in Metazoan Toolkit Since the Cambrian Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Functional
innovation at the
gene product level
RNA evolution) has
nearly stopped
(protein and functional since the Cambrian (570 mya)!
Almost all phenotypic innovation of the
Cambrian Explosion and since
has been in
gene regulatory networks
(regulation, phase three) since.
“New regulation specifies new combinations, amounts, and functional states of those (core) components to act at
Los Angeles New York
particular times and places in the animal.”
Gerhart J, Kirschner M.
2007. " The theory of facilitated variation ".
PNAS USA.
104(S1):8582 –9
.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Ergodicity: Terminal Differentiation in a Mathematical Context Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Astronomical discoveries and discovery rate, projected to 2200 (Martin Harwit,
Cosmic Discovery
, 1981).
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Power law / Pareto / Long-tail curves
How networks of evolutionary variety fill a niche
Scale Free Network Computing – Internet, World Wide Web (‘preferential attachment’) Biology – Metabolic, gene, and protein networks, allometric scaling Markets – Stock market crashes, equity networks (stock prices) Socioeconomics – Pareto’s law (income distribution, contacts, etc.), learning/experience curves (cost per cumulative units produced) Engineering – Constructal law (trees, rivers, lungs, circulation) Catastrophe – Size/frequency of earthquakes, fires, epidemics Physics – Phase transitions (heat capacity, correlation length), emergence of order in an expanding universe (Layzer, Chaisson), inverse square laws (gravitation, EM & acoustic
Los Angeles New York
Complexity – SOC, self-similarity, fractals, and scaling laws Good Biz Text Great Pop Sci Text
Normal and Log-Normal / Gaussian / Bell curves
How developmental processes produce future order Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
“Results from a large number of small effects that act additively (normal) or multiplicatively (log-normal curve) and independently.” Normal curve (special case): Biology – collective physiological variables (blood pressure, milk prod., etc.), heritable & learned capacities (intelligence/g, etc.) Engineering – deviations from target values Modeling – measurement error (variation) Log-normal curve (most common case): Biology – mature sizes (length, height, skin area, weight), organ sizes, gene expression rates, mRNA stability, species abund.
Socioeconomics Physics
Palo Alto
– exchange rates, price indexes, ‘rationalizing’ of global wealth (started with a power law), spoken sentence lengths – resources in Earth’s crust, rainfall, air pollution, aerosol particle size, wireless comm. attenuation Good IQ Text
Log-normal Distributions across the Sciences, Limpert etal.,
BioScience
51(5), 2001.
Great Article!
Global income distribution is turning log-normal Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Global marginal income distribution is normalizing, as a developmental trend 1970: Isolated economies 2000: Connected, flattening
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Our Generation’s Theme
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
First World Saturating Emerging Nations Gap-Closing
Developmental Singularity Hypothesis
Successful Universal Intelligences Act as Universal Experiments and Replicators
The Developmental Spiral
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Homo Habilis
Age 2,000,000 yrs ago
Homo Sapiens
Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age Empires Age
Scientific
Age 7,000 yrs 2,500 yrs
380 yrs
(1500-1770)
180 yrs
(1770-1950)
Industrial
Age
Information
Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity
70 yrs
(1950-2020) 30 yrs (2020-2050) 10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On
The Developmental Spiral Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current physics or information theory texts…)
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development
Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (
Dragons of Eden
, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 400,000 yrs: Matter 1B yrs: Protogalaxies
Developmental Singularity?
50 yrs ago:
Machina silico
100,000 yrs ago:
H. sap. sap.
8B yrs: Earth
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Why are Leading-Edge Developmental Niches Increasingly Local in Space and Time?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Biogenesis
required a cooling Earth-crust, and billennia.
Multicellular organisms
required a Cambrian Explosion, and millennia.
Human culture
required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens of thousands of years.
Science and technology revolutions
required a Social Enlightenment, a fraction of the preserved biomass of Earth’s extinct species, and hundreds of years.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Intelligent computers
will apparently be able to model the birth and death of the universe with the refuse thrown away annually by one American family. In tens of years?
We Live in a STEM+IC Universe
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit S
pace,
T
ime,
E
nergy,
M
atter Increasingly Understood
I
nfo and
C
omp.
Poorly Known
STEM Efficiency/Compression/Density decreasing STEM resources is the ever required for any standard physical process or computation .
This seems to be the “engine” of accelerating change.
“STEM Efficiency is Doing More, Better, with Less.” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
STEM Compression: A Curious Process of Universal Development
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Our universe is apparently constructing special zones of local intelligence (complexity, modeling capacity, meaningful information) which are measurably and predictably more
space, time, energy
and
matter dense
, or
STEM dense
(meaning increasingly
localized
in space,
accelerated
in time, and flows), and
STEM efficient
dense
in energy and matter (in space, time, energy, and matter resources used per standardized
computation
or
physical transformation
) (Smart 1999,2000,2002b).
S
pace Compression (Increasing Locality of CAS Hierarchy)
T
ime Compression (accelerating change, Cosmic Calendar)
E
nergy Compression (free energy rate density)
M
atter Compression (learning curves, cities, high density comp.)
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Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Structures Traces out a Universal Hyperbolic Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Free Energy Rate Density ( Φ) Substrate
(ergs/sec/gm)
Galaxies Stars Planets
(Early)
Ecosystems Animals (hum. body) Brains (human) Culture (human)
0.5
2
75 900 20,000 (
10^4
150,000 (10^5) 500,000 (10^5)
Modern Engines Intel 8080
of the 1970's
10^5 to 10^8 10^10 Pentium II
of the 1990's (
10^11
)
Global AI
of the 21st C
10^12+ Los Angeles New York
Eric Chaisson,
Cosmic Evolution
, 2001 ) Free energy rate density values in
hierarchically emergent
CAS.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Energy Rate Density Flow Trends Depend on the Phase of the Life Cycle in Biological Development
Note the
energy flow
trends in each
phase
of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism.
Only
reproduction
and
birth
phases are
accelerative
Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics phase profile. What else?
Key Question:
In an evo devo universe,
does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction?
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
World Economic Performance
GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.
Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution.
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Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
The J Curve
First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves)
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: Chaisson’s Phi Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
STEM Compression
Inner Space, Not Outer Space, may be our ‘Final Frontier’ Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Mirror Worlds
, David Gelernter, 1998: Real structures in “outer space” (the physical world) are being modeled rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual space (the digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is: • Computationally very
simple
• A vastly
slower
and tractable (transparent) substrate for evolutionary development • Rapidly
encapsulated
by our simulation science • Possibly a “
rear view mirror
” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence
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Non-Autonomous ISS versus Autonomous Human Brain
Fine-Tuning Problem (Philosophy, not yet Science) Is our universe “self-tuned” for life, complexity emergence?
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Many basic physical features of our universe seem very finely and unreasonably
“tuned”
for the emergence of life and complexity in a universal environment, in the same way genes are
“tuned”
for the emergence of complex organism in a biological environment: Gravitational coupling constant Electromagnetic coupling constant Fine structure constant Strong nuclear force Weak nuclear force Proton/electron mass ratio Mass and energy of the universe Expansion rate of the universe Uniformity and entropy level of the universe Speed of light Nuclear energy levels of Be, C, and O.
Another dozen or so “special” constants…
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There are now twenty six or so ‘empirical’ parameters in the standard model of particle physics, and cosmology. More to come?
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What are black holes?
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Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Lee Smolin’s Answer: Developmental Systems Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’
At least 8 of the 20+ “standard model” universal parameters appear tuned for: – black hole production – multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life)
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Lee Smolin,
The Life of the Cosmos
, 1996
Cosmological Natural Selection (CNS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Perhaps the first viable astrophysical evo devo universe model to date. Quentin Smith (1990,2000) Lee Smolin (1992,1994,1997,2006).
Seeks to explain the
‘fine tuning’
or ‘improbable universe’ problem (Leslie 1989, Rees 1999, Barrow 2002,2007).
19+15
, or
20
, or
6
, or ?? fundamental parameters, an ‘economical but ungainly’ set, like developmental genes. We may eliminate some, yet
add more
as particle physics advances.
In Smolin’s simulations (1992,1994,1997),
eight
of approximately twenty parameters
appear fine tuned
both for long-lived universes capable of generating complex life and for the production of
black holes
(
‘fecundity’ hundreds of trillions
of production) of CNS proposes the special values of our universal parameters are the result of an
evolutionary selection process New York
(and thus involving universe reproduction
via black holes
universe adaptation in the multiverse
).
,
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Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
CNS is Testable By Simulation
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‘Baby universes’ exploring universal phenospace on a phylogenetic tree, with a low branching rate and frequent terminal branching in this cartoon (Adapted from Linde 1994).
Systematics diagram. Living organisms exploring a phylogenetic tree in evo-devo biology Just as we see
developmental
selected) and
evolutionary
(conserved, critical, internally (varied, externally selected)
genes
in biological phenospace, we must find both developmental (fine tuned) and evolutionary (variable)
fundamental parameters
in our own universe’s particular set of initial conditions. Per Smolin (1996) and Vaas (1998) this prediction is already (and increasingly) testable by simulation.
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Is “Hyperspace” the Future of Universal Intelligence?
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Are Quantum Theory, String Theory, M-Theory, and Multiverse Theory consistent with a “Black Hole Analogous” Transcension / Developmental ‘Destiny’ for Intelligence?
Do STEM compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity lead us to Inner Space, Not Outer Space?
If so, what’s on the other side of an Inner Space transition?
Science has started to ask such questions, but we are still a long way from knowing the answers…
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
‘Law’ of Locally Asymptotic Computation
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto A complexity-centric representation of the universe. If Earth-type emergences provide a special universal reference frame, some cosmological models must be revised.
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Black Hole Strangeness
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Black hole time dilation. Clocks near a black hole appear to slow down to an external observer, and stop altogether at the event horizon. Inside a black hole, external clocks move arbitrarily fast.
Black holes are the most efficient computational systems known (Lloyd 2000).
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Self-Fractionating Universe: A Passive Black Hole Merger Scenario
1. At the onset of acceleration, we see the largest number of galaxies we ever will.
2. The visible region grows, but the overall universe grows even faster, so we see a smaller fraction of what exists 3. Distant galaxies (not bound to us by gravity) move out of our range of view. Gravity pulls nearby galaxies together.
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About six billion yrs ago, our universe’s expansion rate began to accelerate. Our local universe is now
self-fractionating
ours will include only the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies (Nagamine and Loeb 2003) into local ‘islands,’, and Each of these ‘supergalaxies,’ may engage in
evolutionarily unique
mergers (natural selection) among all their developed intelligences. From the black hole intelligence’s time perspective, such mergers would occur virtually
instantaneously,
in no subjective time
.
This is because black holes, and only black holes, are a ‘one-way time travel device.’
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Active Black Hole Mergers: An Alternative Scenario Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
If black hole mergers were desired to occur as soon as possible in ‘nonrelativistic time’, they might actively migrate to some central merger point. Might mature Developmental Singularities actively migrate from the GHZ to the galactic center? If so, signatures of their migration should be detectable by gravitational lensing and other techniques, with adequate instruments.
Applications
A Few Implications of the ECD Framework
Our Universe Appears to Have Both Evolutionary Possibility and Developmental Purpose Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
The more we study the dual processes of Evo-Devo, the better we
discover
foreground. how a simple yet specially tuned background creates and self-organizes a complex
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Evolutionary
variation is generally increasing and becomes more MEST efficient with time and substrate.
Development
(in special systems) is on an accelerating local trajectory to an intelligent destination.
Humans
are both evolutionary & developmental actors, creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition.
We need
both
adequate
evolutionary generativity
, (emergent uniqueness) and adequate
developmental sustainability
journey.
(niche construction) in this extraordinary
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo devo theory argues for
process balance
in political dialogs on
Innovation
and
Sustainability Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates
sterility
, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates
chaos
, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo devo theory suggests that both
Republican Democratic
and platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each
integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Republicans
are
Devo
/Maintenance/Tradition on
Social-Political
Issues
Evo
/Innovation/Freedom on
Economic
Issues
Democrats
are
Evo
/Innovation/Freedom on
Social-Political
Issues
Devo
/Maintenance/Tradition on
Economic
Issues
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Competition and Collaboration Must Be Actively Balanced in Adaptive Cultures, Orgs, and Individuals Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Competition breeds both innovation and inequality , which democracy must “rationalize” (e.g., fair rich-poor divides).
Both positive-sum games (science, capitalism, morality) and zero-sum games (most laws, taxes, budgets) are prevalent.
Collaboration can create intelligence or mobs democracy) and groupthink (balanced by rep. (balanced by individual liberty).
+ Adapt ation
( Orga nism )
– Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolution, Competition Development, Collaboration
Michael Conrad’s Computational ‘Tradeoff Principle’ Adaptability vs. Programmability vs. Efficiency Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A computing system cannot have all of the following properties: 1. High evolutionary variation capacity (adaptability) ( Evo ) 2. High formal/structural programmability ( Devo ).
3. High computational efficiency (adaptation) ( Evo Devo ) The “DNA-Computer Disanalogy”: DN A is strong in 1 , very weak in 2 (programmability) and 3 (efficiency).
Di gital co mputers are strong in 2 , weak in 1 (variation capacity) and 3.
Gener alized Comput ational Effici ency
( Adapt ation )
Evolutionary Developmental Variation Capacity Programmability Los Angeles New York Conrad M.
1988. The Price of Programmability. In: Herken, R. (Ed.),
The Universal Turing Machine: A Half-Century Survey
, Verlag, pp. 285-307.
Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Our History, Present, and Future can be seen as: –
Evolutionary choices
(Evo, 95%?),
Developmental forces
(Devo, 5%?) and the
Adaptation/Learning/Simulation increase
(Compu, 100%) from their interaction Evo, Compu, and Devo Teleology.
Innovation
,
adaptation
, and
sustainability
goals, drives, and values constrain humans and our tech,
and will constrain AIs to come
.
Sustainable Innovation
. Devo and evo polarized countries, parties, and people exist. We need
both
.
Seed, Org, Envir
(SOE)
Intelligence Partitioning
. – – Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy We need a
new theory of identity/intelligence
Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework - II Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit
Hierarchy
and
Acceleration
. – – We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process.
Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’
STEM Compression
will continue on Earth – –
Human cities
will only get more STEM efficient/dense STEM dense tech (
nanotech
) will continue to deliver
unreasonable returns Inner Space
increasingly encompasses Outer Space – – – Increasing importance of the
human mind and heart
(education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the
virtual
, increasing
virtual-physical
and
human-machine
interface Importance of
‘gardening’ our technological extensions
(they are the next inner space), and
guiding their interaction
with the current inner space (human consciousness).
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Three Primary Foresight Skills Future Creation, Discovery, Mgmt
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable , and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create , discover , and manage (“CDM”) the future.
Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking
Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research
Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Innovation, Adaptation and Sustainability: They Are Not Phases, But Lifestyles. Systemic Imbalances in Western Society Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
We think
Creativity
is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. We emphasize it only in the
first five years
of life, and don’t try to develop it systematically during this phase or much after. Exceptions: Montessori, Waldorf.
We think
Adaptation/Learning
lifestyle. It starts
in “school”
is a “phase,” not a and ends when we “graduate” or “fit in.” We get little training for innovation and sustainability behaviors to come. Exceptions: Continuing ed, personality assessments, lifelong learning communities, policies, metrics, and tests.
We think
Sustainability
is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts when we graduate and
get a job
. It also takes a
very narrow view
of the term (org., economic and status quo ‘sustainability’). It neglects, not only personal, national and global sustainability, but also innovation and learning behaviors during and after our careers.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Who Are You, In Relation to the Universe?
An Evo Compu Devo Speculation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe, here to create (evo), sustain (devo), and adapt to and understand (compu) it, from your own perspective, and to form unproven beliefs (evo), tentative philosophy/codes (compu) and proven science (devo) about those things you don’t understand.
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A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating.org