Transcript Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change for Strategic Advantage in the Air and Space Intelligence Environment NASIC April 2007  Wright-Patterson AFB,

Adapting to the Future:
Understanding and Guiding Accelerating
Change for Strategic Advantage in the
Air and Space Intelligence Environment
NASIC
April 2007  Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
John Smart, President, ASF
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Introduction
Air and Space Intelligence and Prediction:
Brief Historical Context
National Air and Space Intelligence Center
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Mission: “to produce integrated, predictive air
and space intelligence to enable military
operations, force modernization and
policymaking."
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Toward New Horizons
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Theodore von Karman’s Toward New Horizons, 1946, classified
secret for decades, was the original U.S. S&T futures research
study. It shaped much of our early postwar R&D agenda.
Gen. Henry “Hap” Arnold: “the first essential of air power is
preeminence in research.” Gen. Arnold founded Project RAND
(first US futures think tank), using $10M left over from WWII.
Among services, Air Force is dependent on tech in a unique way.
Prediction: Futures work appears first and is most stable in the
embattled (by mission or circumstance) cultures (Singapore,
Israel, Ireland, etc.) and institutions (Mil-Intel, DoC, DoS).
For more: tinyurl.com/ywtqdf and
Applying Methods and Techniques of Futures Research, James L. Morrison, 1983
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Harnessing the Genie
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Summarizes methodologies and conclusions of
the five main Air Force S&T forecasts to 1988.
“I listened with fascination. I had always
admired [Commanding General of the Army Air
Forces Henry H.] Arnold’s great vision, but I
think then that I was more impressed than
ever. This was September 1944. The war was
not over; in fact, the Germans were to launch
the Battle of the Bulge in December. Yet Arnold
was already casting his sights far beyond the
war, and realizing, as he always had, that the
technical genius that could help find answers
for him was not cooped up in military or civilian
bureaucracy but was to be found in universities
and the people at large.” – Theodore von
Karman, The Wind and Beyond, 1967
Gorn notes that as the years have progressed,
“The extent of reliance on independent
advice [for futures forecasting, as occurred
in Toward New Horizons] has steadily
lessened and greater emphasis placed on
internal USAF sources for forecasting the
future.”
This seems both a natural developmental
trend and also a significant concern with
regard to forecast relevance.
See also: Prophecy Fulfilled: ‘Toward New Horizons’ and its Legacy, Michael H. Gorn, 1994
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What Today Would Have Surprised 1950’s Americans?
Acceleration
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1. Electronics Miniaturization, Digitization, and Virtualization
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Transistor, IC, laser, fiber optics, cell phones, personal computers, internet, comm.
satellites, transparency technology, computer graphics, virtual worlds. Could we have
imagined the power and pervasiveness of digital life?
2. Decline of U.S. Mfg., Rise and Resiliency of Services and Intangibles Sector
–
Economic resiliency (no major depression since 1930’s), intangible assets, microcredit.
Could we have imagined the U.S. with less than 15% employment in manufacturing (12%)
and agriculture (1.4%) and still the leading world power?
3. Egalitarianism, Pluralism, and Globalization (Network Society)
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Civil rights movement, women’s rights and work parity, contraception, reproductive rights,
sexual revolution, gay rights, youth rights, 100,000 Global NGOs, multiculturalism,
multireligiosity, undocumented immigration, global trade interdependence, EU, NAFTA
4. Peaceful End of Communism, Decline of Militarism and Violence
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State capitalism (China, Singapore), nuclear disarmament, WMD nonproliferation, loss of
superpower influence, European postimilitarism, decline of wars, genocides, homicide,
crime, rise of asymmetric (non-state) conflict
5. Limits to Growth, Environmentalism and Health Movements
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Global population explosion, MDC population decline, nuclear power limitations, no return
to Moon for almost 50 years (1972-2017), ocean overfishing, global CO2 spike, sustainable
business, fundamentalist backlash/Terrorism, smoking decline, health care cost burden
6. Consequences of Increased Personal Freedom and Affluence
–
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Obesity/diet industry, drug addiction, prolonged adolescence/youth culture, decline of
marriage, celebrity/entertainment culture, public education standards erosion, ADD/ADHD,
consumer debt
Yet each of these was eloquently anticipated by someone. Today, we have wisdom
of the crowds/networks/early wikis, collab. intelligence, prediction markets.
[Adapted from Mar 2007 APF Survey, Peter Bishop. Profuturists.com]
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What Would Not Have Surprised 1950’s Americans?
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Studies
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Age of Automation
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Multinational Corporate Economy
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Largest employer, special interest lobbies, campaign finance
dysfunction, national security industry, erosion of states rights
Urban Decline and Renewal Cycle
–
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More powerful than most governments, able to grow faster,
employ technology more aggressively, periodic economic
bubbles (Internet), fraud (S&L, Enron), DJIA over 12,000, GNP
growing 3-10% year and accelerating.
Growth in Size and Plutocracy of Government
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Process automation, industrial robotics, mega-scale
engineering, and material abundance (“The American Way”)
Suburbia, decline of urban core, gangs, gentrification, new
urbanism (Repeat of Manchester in 1800’s).
Is social surprise decreasing? Computational closure?
Frank Fukuyama, John Horgan, myself: Yes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Thesis: Back to (Predictability of) the Future
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Predictability of the Future
–
–
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This belief was very strong (and naïve) in 1940’s
(reductionistic, engineered future), saw its nadir in the 1980’s
(Chaos Theory, Great Disruption of the 1960’s-70’s).
Reemerging today as a new type of prediction (evo devo,
integral). Knowing the ends of things (eg., Rock n’ Roll) and
the standard (developmental) attractors that define a stable
future state (and the saturation in innovation that occurs once
that point is reached).
Human space is stabilizing as the technological space
sees ever more rapid changes that are increasingly:
1. Predictable in their general developmental trajectory.
2. Supportive of human values (positive economic and
slow social impact) (eg., process automation, machine
learning, simulation, cognitive assistance).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Awareness and
Evolutionary Development (“Evo Devo”)
A Strategic Forecasting Framework
Systems Theory
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Systems Theorists Make Things Simple
(sometimes too simple!)
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
— Albert Einstein
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
We Have Two Options:
Future Shock or Future Shaping
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“We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance
between innovation and preservation.
Honest dialogs on persistent problems,
tolerance of imperfect solutions. The
ability to avoid both doomsaying and
paralyzing adherence to the status quo.”
― David Brin
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Paradigm in Three Acts
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Framework, Picture, Painter
Cell & Genes, Environment, Organism
Development, System, Evolution
Rules & Limits, Observed, Observer
Laws & Constants, Universe, Intelligence
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Act I: The Framework
Intelligence,
MEST Compression, and
Evolutionary Development
Intelligence:
An Evolutionary Process
The Driver of Accelerating Change
Our Infopomorphic, Biofelicitous,
Accelerating Universe
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The universe is a physical-computational system.
We exist for information theoretic reasons.
We’re here to evolve and develop.
To care, count, and act.
To create, discover, and manage.
To innovate, plan, profit, and predict.
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In a wondrously ordered, elegant, and
surprising environment.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of
Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead)
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The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the
Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960
After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple
universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics.
F=ma
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
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In 1968, Mead predicted we would create
much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million
chip transistors that would run far faster and
more efficiently. He later generalized this
observation to a number of other devices.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
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Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
© 2007 Accelerating.org
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
Acceleration
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"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
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The Developmental Spiral
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts…)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Emergence Acceleration:
Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil,
2006
The Developmental Spiral
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Classic Predictable Accelerations:
Moore’s Law
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Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon
Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that
computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity
every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost.
This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of
technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by
1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!
There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization
of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals
have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Transistor Doublings (2 years)
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Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Processor Performance (1.8 years)
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Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2007 Accelerating.org
DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)
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Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures
as a Moore’s-Dependent Process
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Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal
structures by 2002. The actual number (in online
Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
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Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost
Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles
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There are many natural cycles:
Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust,
Conflict-Peace…
Ray Kurzweil first noted that a
generalized, century-long Moore’s
Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great
Depression of the 1930’s.
Conclusion: Human-discovered, not
human-created complexity is the main
dynamic here. Not many intellectual
or physical resources are required to
keep us on the accelerating
Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999
developmental trajectory.
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“Acceleration is a rigged game.”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Henry Adams, 1909:
Our First “Singularity Theorist”
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Adam’s final
Ethereal Phase
would last about
four years, and
"bring Thought to
the limit of its
possibilities."
(Singularity
1921-2025)
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998
Trees of Evolution, 2000
Singularity 2130 ±20 years
Singularity 2080 ±30 years
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003
The Singularity is Near, 2005
Singularity 2050 ±10 years
Singularity 2045 ±20 years
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression:
A Developmental Process
The Engine of Accelerating Change
The MESTI Universe
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Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information
Increasingly Understood
 Poorly Known
MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever
decreasing MEST resources required for any
standard physical process or computation. The engine
of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less.”
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of
Resources” for Leading Edge Computation
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Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient
with each new generation.
Our main candidates for future computational
technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing,
reversible logic, etc.) require little or no energy.
We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient,
sustainable, and virtual cities.
Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed
Service Economies.
Global energy intensity (energy consumption per
capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the
developed world.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
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Physical Driver:
 MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density
Emergent Properties:
 Information Intelligence (World Models)
 Information Interdepence (Ethics)
 Information Immunity (Resiliency)
 Information Incompleteness (Search)
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An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:
↑ Entropy = ↑ Negentropy
Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information
Potential. A hidden metapotential is conserved.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development
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Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change:
Inner Space to Outer Space to Inner Space Again
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Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Inner Space and Outer Space
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“I ask you to look both ways. For the
road to knowledge of the stars is
through the atom., and the important
knowledge of the atom has been
reached through the stars.”
Stars and Atoms, 1928
The fundamental constants of nature,
such as the mass of the proton and
the charge of the electron, may be a
"natural and complete specification
for constructing a Universe."
Fundamental Theory, 1946
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Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington
Mathematician and Physicist
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ):
A Universal Moore’s Law Curve
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Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Ф
(ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
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0.5
2 (counterintuitive)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Understanding MEST Compression
Acceleration
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We
End Up
Here
The Finite
Universe Box
Six Billion
Years Ago
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MEST compression/Time
© 2007 Accelerating.org
What are black holes?
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Lee Smolin’s Answer: Developmental Systems
Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’
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At least 8 of the 20 “standard model”
universal parameters appear tuned for:
– black hole production
– multi-billion year old Universes
(capable of creating Life)
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Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Developmental Transcension
for Local Intelligence?
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MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity
Inner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims)
Black Hole Equivalent Transcension?
A Possible Developmental ‘Destiny’ for Intelligence
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Binding Energy (of Computational Structure)
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Ervin Laszlo (Evolution, 1987) notes each hierarchically emergent
universal substrate greatly decreases the binding energy of its
diverse (evolutionary) physical configurations. Examples:
 matter (earliest emerging physical substrate), e.g., protons and neutrons
within the nucleus of atoms, is bound by nuclear exchange ("strong") forces
 atoms are joined by much weaker ionic or covalent (electromagnetic) bonds
 cells within multicellular organisms are connected "another dimension down
the scale of bonding energy."
 memes encoded in a vesicular-morphologic language of synaptic weights and
dendritic arborization involve vastly less binding energy still
 technemes, in communicable electronically-encoded algorithms and logic
circuitry involve orders of magnitude less binding energy yet again.
 gravitons. Note gravity is the 2nd weakest of the five known forces (only dark
energy is weaker). Yet in Smolin’s model gravity guides us to black holes as a
developmental attractor for substrate computation in this universe.
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In other words, the MEST efficiency, or energy cost of computation, of
learning (encoding, remembering, reorganizing) rapidly tends to zero in
emergent substrates as we approach the developmental singularity.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Estimating the Growth and Limits
of Universal Computation
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Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops
–
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Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops
–
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Understanding most Developmental History and some of the
Evolutionary History of the System. (e.g., CA’s)
Computing right down to Planck Scale?
–
–
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Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling.
Lloyd’s Estimate: 300 Doublings (600 years) to a
“Past-Closed” Omega Computer.
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Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler
No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer)
Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes
Seth Lloyd, “Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002
C. Bennett & R. Landauer, “Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Simplicity and Complexity
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Universal Evolutionary Development is:
Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between
Simple Math
Of the Very Small
Simple Math
Of the Very Large
(Big Bang,
Quantum Mechanics,
Chemistry)
(Classical Mechanics,
General Relativity)
Complex Math
Of the In Between
(Chaos, Life, Humans,
Coming Technologies)
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Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake?, 2001
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Meaning of Simplicity
(Wigner’s ladder)
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Complex systems
are evolutionary.
Simple systems
are developmental.
Evolution
Development
Non-Pattern
Pattern
Variety
Uniformity
Symmetry
Breaking
Symmetry and
Supersymmetry
Chaotic Math
Simple Math
The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a
simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding.
The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is
mathematically complex (Gödelian incomplete),
and trillions of times evolutionarily unique.
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The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large,
& paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small)
is uniform, and simple to understand.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Developmental Singularity Speculation
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600 Year Agenda?
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–
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Full AI Sim of Human Thoughtspace (ref.: Our multimillion
dollar sims of bacterial metabolome)
Historical Computational Closure (astronomy, geography,
brains, etc.). Maps rapidly close the very large and very
small, leaving only the very complex…
Inner space, not outer space, may be our developmental
destiny, quite soon in cosmologic time.
For astronomical closure, see Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery,
1981
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Fermi Paradox
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So where are the ET’s?
Andromeda Galaxy is
only 2 mill light yrs away
A Dev. Sing. Prediction:
SETI Fossils by 2080
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Our Milky Way Galaxy is just
45,000 light years in radius.
Earth-like planets 2-5 Billion years
older than us nearer the core.
“Answering the Fermi Paradox,” John Smart, 2003
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Present Score:
13 for Transcension, 2 for Expansion
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The Case For Transcension
1. Universal Speed Limit (c), and Isolation of Everything Interesting
2. Singularities Everywhere
3. Hyperspace (Our Universe is a Riemann Manifold in 4D Space)
4. String and Supersymmetry Theory (10, 11, or 26 Dimensions)
5. Multiverse Theories (CNS, INS)
6. Fermi Paradox (Parsimonious Transcension Solution)
7. Relentless MEST Compression of Substrate Emergence
8. Technological Singularity Hypothesis
9. “Plenty of Room at the Bottom” (Richard Feynman about Nanotech)
10. Bottom is Strange (Quantum Weirdness), But Stably Convergent!
11. A Non-Anthropomorphic Future
12. Lambda Universe Message (The Kerrigan Problem. "Why Now?")
13. Midpoint Principle (Subset of Cosmic Watermark Hyp./Wigner's Ladder)
The (Highly Suspect) Case for Expansion
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1. 3D Space is Suited to Humanity
2. A Comfortable Extrapolation of our Frontier Experience
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Development:
In Physics, Biology, and Beyond
A New Paradigm for Change
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Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
Evolutionary Development:
The Left and Right Hands of Change
Left Hand
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New Computat’l Phase Space ‘Opening’
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
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Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Differential
Multicellularity
Discovered
Complex Environmental Interaction
Cambrian Explosion (570 mya)
Bacteria 
Insects
Invertebrates
Selection/Emergence/
Phase Space Collapse/
MEST Collapse
Development
Vertebrates
35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since.
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
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For more: Wallace Arthur, John Odling-Smee, Simon Conway Morris, RudyRaff
© 2007 Accelerating.org
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Replication, Variation
Natural Selection
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Complex Interaction
Memetic Evolutionary Development
Selection, Convergence
Convergent Selection
MEST Compression
Development
Variations on this ev. dev. model have been proposed for:
Neural arboral pruning to develop brains (Edelman, Neural Darwinism, ‘88)
Neural net connections to see patterns/make original thoughts (UCSD INS)
Neural electrical activity to develop dominant thoughts (mosaics, fighting
for grossly 2D cortical space) (Calvin, The Cerebral Code, 1996)
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Input to a neural network starts with chaos (rapid random signals), then
creates emergent order (time-stable patterns), in both artificial and biological
nets. Validity testing: Hybrid electronic/lobster neuron nets (UCSD INS)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
RVISC Life Cycle of
Evolutionary Development
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
Replication
Spacetime stable structure, transmissible partially by internal
(DNA) template and partially by external (universal
environmental) template. Templates are more internal with time.

Variation
Ability to encode “requisite variety” of adaptive responses to
environmental challenges, to preserve integrity, create novelty.

Interaction (Complex, Spacetime Bounded)
Early exploration of the phase space favors natural selection, full
exploration (“canalization”) favor developmental selection.
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Selection (“Natural/Evolutionary” Selection)
Information-producing, randomized, chaotic attractors.
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Convergence (“Developmental” Selection)
MEST-efficient, optimized, standard attractors.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution vs. Development
“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
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Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints
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Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Understanding Development
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Just a few hundred
developmental genes “ride
herd” over massive molecular
evolutionary chaos.
Yet two genetic twins look, in
many respects, identical.
How is that?
They’ve been tuned, cyclically,
for a future-specific
convergent emergent order,
in a stable development niche.
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Origination of Organismal Form, Müller and Newman, 2003
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels
(Evolution, Systems, and Development)
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The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points
(“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin. MEST
compression is a key feature of the attractors.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Every Substrate Has its Niche
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The entire evolutionary history of life
involves each organisms increasingly
intelligent (value driven) modification
of their niche, and environmental
responses to these changes.
“Organisms do not simply 'adapt' to
preexisting environments, but actively
change and construct the world in which
they live. Not until Niche Construction,
however, has that understanding been
turned into a coherent structure that brings
together observations about natural history
and an exact dynamical theory.”
– Richard Lewontin, Harvard
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Niche Construction: The Neglected Process in Evolution,
Odling-Smee, Laland, Feldman, 2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Developmental Biogenesis
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Eric Smith, Santa Fe Institute
 Potential prebiotic chemical reactions form a
vast ‘possibility space’ in the energy landscape.
 A subset of these make self-reproducing and
self-varying chemical cycles, producing
information and permanently modifying the
selection environment (“niche construction”).
 A series of low energy paths (“channels”)
emerge, constraining the landscape.
Q:“What was the problem with the prebiotic Earth
that was solved by the appearance of life?”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Why are Leading-Edge Developmental Niches
Increasingly Local in Space and Time?
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Biogenesis required a cooling Earth-crust, and billennia.
Multicellular organisms required a Cambrian Explosion,
and millennia.
Human culture required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens
of thousands of years.
Science and technology revolutions required a Social
Enlightenment, a fraction of the preserved biomass of
Earth’s extinct species, and hundreds of years.
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Intelligent computers will apparently be able to model
the birth and death of the universe with the refuse thrown
away annually by one American family. In tens of years?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis:
Evo Devo Organisms, Evo Devo Universe
Acceleration
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Devo (Germline, Parameters) vs. Evo (Bodies, Universes)
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Protected Germline Cells,
Mortal Somas (Bodies)
(Kirkwood, 1999)
Protected Parameters,
Mortal Universes
(Smolin, 1999)© 2007 Accelerating.org
Our Universe Appears to Have Both
Evolutionary Possibility and Developmental Purpose
Acceleration
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The more we study the dual processes of Evo-Devo, the
better we discover how the simple background, allows
creation of a complex foreground.
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Evolutionary variation is generally increasing and
becomes more MEST efficient with time and substrate.
Development (in special systems) is on an accelerating
local trajectory to an intelligent destination.
Humans are both evolutionary & developmental actors,
creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition.
We need both adequate evolutionary generativity,
(emergent uniqueness) and adequate developmental
sustainability (niche construction) in this extraordinary
journey.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
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Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks)
still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
How Many Wheels on an Automobile are
Developmentally Optimal?
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Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
“Convergent Evolution”:
Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis
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Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid
forms as a standard attractor.
A number of small dinosaurs
(raptors and oviraptors) developed
bipedalism, binocular vision,
complex hands with opposable
thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios
equivalent to modern birds. They
were intelligent pack-hunters of
both large and small animals
(including our mammalian
precursors) both diurnally and
nocturnally. They would likely
have become the dominant
planetary species due to their
superior intelligence, hunting, and
manipulation skills without the K-T
event 65 million years ago.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
Two Universal Systems Processes
Acceleration
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Evolution
Development
Creativity
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Discovery
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
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Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
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The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities:
Innovation vs. Sustainability
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Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to
Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without generativity creates
sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive
weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without
sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that
is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall of Complex Societies
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
Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern
Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians)
6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from
repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated
farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall: Nabatea
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Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan:
trading experts, progressively wood-depleted
overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)
Rock Hyrax
(burrows are
vegetation
time capsules)
Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall: Anasazi
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Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200
CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and
industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in
CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde).
No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.
Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM
Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, CO
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion
(Phase I: Near East-to-West)
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Hellennistic (Alexander)
Egyptian (New Kingdom)
Babylonian
Spanish
Austria
Germany
British
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Roman
French
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Empire Developmental Progression:
(Phase II: America to Asia)
Acceleration
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Japan
(Temporary: Pop density,
Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers
(Taiwan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore)
American
India
China
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Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist”
transition. Population control, plentiful resources,
stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital.
U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year.
Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.
BHR-1, 2002
© 2007 Accelerating.org
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier
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Annual average GDP growth of 9.5%
(Some urban areas up to 20%!)
Largest global producer of toys,
clothing, consumer electronics.
Moving into cars, computers,
biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.
1.5 billion hard workers “greatest
natural resource on the planet.”
High savings, factory wages start at
40 cents/hour
45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories
20,000 European Contract Factories
15,000 U.S. Contract Factories
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36
million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's
population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us.

From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail e-commerce
(business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for
the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5
million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current
projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per
capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4X
higher than China’s.
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In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than
6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China
already had the single largest population of online gamers.

Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the
future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future.”
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Angus Maddison’s
Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982
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Services/Network/Information Society
Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)
Network 1.0
“McJobs” & Service
65% of Jobs, 2000’s
Network 2.0
New Middle Class
40% of Jobs, 2030’s
Network 3.0
Consolidation Again
15% of Jobs, 2060’s
Products/Manufacturing Society
Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)
Manufacturing 1.0
Exploitive Jobs
50% of Jobs, 1900’s
Manufacturing 2.0
New Middle Class
35% of Jobs, 1950’s
Manufacturing 3.0
Offshoring/Globalizing
14% of Jobs, 2000’s
Resources/Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)
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Agriculture 1.0
Subsistence Jobs
80% of Jobs, 1820’s
Agriculture 2.0
Family Farms
50% of Jobs, 1920’s
Agriculture 3.0
Corporate Farms
2% of Jobs, 1990’s
See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Metaverse Economy:
The ICT- and CI-Enabled Services Sector
Acceleration
Studies
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An Emerging Fourth Global Economic Sector
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US ICT sector was 8% of
GDP in 1998, 11% in
2001, 14% in 2005.
OECD ICT trade, GDP
share, and employment
grow 4-10% a year.
Service Sector is not yet
Metaverse & CI-enabled,
but after 2015, it will be.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Framework Challenge
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Building Evo Devo Theory
in an “Evolutionist vs. Creationist” World
Finding globally predictable developmental attractors in a
world of locally unpredictable evolutionary systems.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Act II: The Picture
NISCB, Accel. Mechanics,
Immune Systems,
IA and AI
NISCB
Substrates of Accelerating Change
Nanotech, Biotech, Infotech, Cognotech (“NBIC”):
A Converging Technologies Paradigm
Acceleration
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Converging Technologies for Improving Human
Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology,
Information Technology, Cognitive Science,
Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge (Eds.), 2003
Mihail “Mike” Roco
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William Sims Bainbridge
Managing Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Innovations:
Converging Technologies In Society,
William Sims Bainbridge and Mike Roco (Eds.), 2006
© 2007 Accelerating.org
“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity
Development (Arranged “Fastest First”)
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Nanotech (nanoscale science and technology)
Infotech (computing, comm., and engrg. technology)
Sociotech (org. and social technology)
Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors)
Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a
still-early technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older,
less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and
diffusion. First and second mover advantages.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Nanotech: A Developmental Magnet (Attractor),
Accelerating the Infotech Substrate
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http://www.nano.gov
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2008 Budget: $1.5 billion (13 agencies)
2001 Budget: $464 million
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Infotech: Our Leading Substrate
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Sensors/Inputs
Computation/Simulation
Memory/Data
Communications/Networks
Engineering/Automation/Robotics
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Good Infotech Intro Book: The Future of Technology
Acceleration
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Palo Alto
IT development
IT security
IT education and service
Outsourcing and telework
Metaverse (3D web)
Mobile devices
Digital home and work
Biotech and health
Energy
Nanotech
Robotics
Artificial Intelligence
The Future of Technology, Tom Standage, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Sociotech: The Human Substrate
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Individuals, Orgs, Politics, Culture, etc. use
the memetic and genetic substrates to build
the technologic substrate, which drives the
future, subject to social shaping.
 Large orgs often deal poorly with change
(US: Katrina, War on Terror) but they
don’t have to (Singapore: SARS).
 Individuals often deal better with it.
 Infotech deals the best with it.
 Subsidize appropriately!
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Reward and copy organizational and
individual excellence
Use infotech to build collective and
situational intelligence, and
engineer/automate the problem out of
organizational and individual hands.
Yes. A relative and
growing technological
inertia exists.
Example: Cars > suburbs
> inner city decline >
Leuven, Belgium
(underground parking in
city center)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Cognotech: The Memetic Substrate
Acceleration
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Promise of Cognitive Science:
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Information Theory of Mind
Biologically-Inspired Computing
Human Factors
Developmental Psych/Ed.
Cognitive Health
Six Domains of Cognitive Science
(Howard Gardner)
Bad news: CogSci is a
saturated substrate.
 Expertise is not genetic
 It is normally distributed
 Takes many years to develop
 Sensory substitution doesn’t help
(see http://tinyurl.com/ynowum)
2006
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Biotech:
The Genetic Substrate
Acceleration
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Promise of Biological Science:
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Disease elimination
Vital longevity (“squaring the survival curve”)
Optimal development
Information theory of the cell
Bad news: Biology is a saturated substrate.
 HAR & Heterochrony in H. Sapiens vs. Chimps
(“Going Backward to Go Forward”)
 Terminal Differentiation / Path Dependency in complex biology
 Bottom-up experiments not possible (too slow & unethical in biology).
Only half the bottom-up + top-down creativity pair remains.
 Bioengineering blocks (pharmacologic and genetic)
See also:
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www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html
2006
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Terminal Differentiation: Evo Devo in
Homo sapiens is a Saturated Substrate
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Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
– Biologically-inspired computing. Structural mimicry.
But 21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t
accelerate biological complexity
– Neurohomeostasis fights all “top-down” interventions
– We are terminally differentiated and path dependent.
We’ll never biologically “redesign humans”
– No time, ability or motivation to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elimination of disease)
instead.
We have strong cultural immunity to disruptive and
“dehumanizing” biointerventions
– Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity issues.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend Timing: Prioritizing Competing Views of the Future
Acceleration
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The relative timing of trends is even more important than their speed or duration.
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Q: Which comes first: “World Wide Mind” or “Digital Symbionts?”
Rodolpho Llinas, NYU SOM. Threading
nanowires through the brain to record
and stimulate across blood vessels.
Prediction: We’ll link people globally
into a “World Wide Mind.”
22nd Century, PBS, 2007
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Vernor Vinge, SDSU. Science fiction
author. Prediction: The coming tech
singularity (circa 2030’s) will be
preceded in the 2020’s by a Wearable
Web, which will allow Avatar extensions
of our personality and symbiotic teams.
“Time is nature’s way of keeping everything from happening all at
once.”— Woody Allen
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech
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"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
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The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace:
Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Lasers today can made cheaply only in some
areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for
example, UV laser light for cancer detection
and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004
that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen
gas, a device known as a "photonic
crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the
wavelengths previously unavailable.
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Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic
array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle)
acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy
efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of
jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT
and networking revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in
physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why
they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we
remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts
Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves
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Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
Two orders of magnitude
jump in capacity.
99% duty after 1,000 cycles
Reliable at temp extremes
Cost competitive
What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)
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“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen.,
Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
Acceleration
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Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption,
is the fastest growing and most efficient component.
Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,
keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.
180+ mpg Prius.
34 miles on battery only.
Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank
filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized
than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities.
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“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Future of High Density Urban Transport:
Underground Automated Highway Systems
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May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing
exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10X
present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+)
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“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression Implication:
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
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
Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in
itself, how easily it can be developed)
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Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of
the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our
Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."
(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)
Due to principles like superposition, entanglement,
negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum
(electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than
the world of collective electricity.
In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical,
metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly
effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of
materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he
called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and
energy per each given level of functional performance”
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This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression and Inner Space:
The Final Frontier?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.
Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are:
• Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent)
• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
• A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
versus
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Non-Autonomous ISS
Autonomous Human Brain
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Smart’s Laws of Technology
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Mechanics:
Exponential Growth, S, B & J Curves,
Phase Change Singularities
Anatomy of Accelerating Change
The S Curve (Phases BG-MS)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Example: Logistic Population Growth
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Population Saturation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Saturation Lesson:
Biology vs. Technology
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
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Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence,
Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trends in Transportation Speed
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Saturation Example:
Total World Energy Use
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the
1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors:
1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)
2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new
generation of technological system
3. Saturation of human population and
human needs for tech transformation
Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use
declines dramatically proportional to
per capita GDP in all cultures.
Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg.
the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand
for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of
energy demand.
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Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied
dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energyeffective in ways very few of us currently understand.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Energy Consumption per Capita
Saturation (Energy Intensity)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When per capita GDP reaches:
• $3,000 – energy demand explodes as
industrialization and mobility take
off,
• $10,000 – demand slows as the main
spurt of industrialization is
completed,
• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly
than income as services dominate
economic growth and basic
household energy needs are met,
• $25,000 – economic growth requires
little additional energy.
Later developers, using
“leapfrogging technologies”,
require far less time and energy
to reach equivalent GDP.[1]
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Alternative measure: In recent decades, global energy consumption has
been growing increasingly slower than GDP (1%  1.5%  ??).[2]
1. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001;
2. Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes and Hillebrand, 2006, p. 29.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The B Curve (Phases BGM-SDR)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Example: Environmental Impact of Individuals
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Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change
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First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The J Curve (Phases LEH)
DRIVER:
Intelligence (Negentropy)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
ENGINE:
MEST Compression
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
HyperbolicAppearing
Phase
(Not to Scale)
DYNAMIC:
Evolutionary Development
CONSTRAINT:
First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
Some aspects of post-emergence
and post-limit systems can’t be
understood or guided by presingularity systems
HP
= Emergence Singularities
EP = Exponential Point (Knee)
HP = Hyperbolic Point (Wall)
Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Exponential-Appearing
Phase
with Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
EP
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Examples:
Chaisson’s Phi
Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
Linear-Appearing Phase
© 2007 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
quite smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
Note the “knee of the
curve” occurs circa
1850, at the Industrial
Revolution.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology,
Economics, Politics, Technology…
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto

Eldredge and Gould
(Biological Species)

Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)
(income distribution  technology, econ, politics)
Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo)
80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo)
Suggested Reading:
For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma
For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is
Our 80% Adaptive Strategy
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to
improve our intelligence, interdependence, and
resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is
that successful solutions always increase MEST
efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies
to capitalize on this:
 Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.
 Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.
 Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.
 Build a national culture that rewards refinements.
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Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source
Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling.
30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective:
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)
Materials Science (“Substrates”)
 Synthetic Materials
 Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948)
 Microprocessor
 Fiber Optics
 Lasers and Optoelectronics
 Wired and Wireless Networks
 Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots
 Exotic Condensed Matter
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New York
Palo Alto
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective:
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Systems and Software
 Television (1940’s)
 Mainframes (1950’s)
 Minicomputers (1970’s)
 Personal Computers (1980’s)
 Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s)
 Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s)
 Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s)
 Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical
Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS,
Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP…
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective:
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”)
 Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise
missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered
submarines... (major open problems (security))
Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”)
 Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management,
process automation, big-box retailing, robotics…
(major open problems (rich-poor divide))
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective:
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”)
 Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals,
transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics,
microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial
chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”)
Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”)
 Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards
(Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s),
mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit…
Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”)
 Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping
 Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines,
hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden change)”)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective:
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”)
 Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA,
EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights,
zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law
reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law,
feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil
unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive
changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.)
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New York
Palo Alto
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Perspective: A 2030 Vision
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Please Entertain this Proposition:
“Human-ICT” computational domains are saturating.
“Tech-Microcosmic” ICT is not.
Human population flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2nd order
deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration
continues.
Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech,
Biotech, Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and
Envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030, but with major
ICT extensions.
We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global,
not local. Meanwhile Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld,
and Cosmology have continued to surprise us.
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Palo Alto
ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation,
Interface) will look, and feel, powerfully different, year by year.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Saturation in Technology Development
at the Human Scale?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Question: Could the 21st Century provide equally as fundamental breakthroughs, in
terms of human impact? I would argue not. Once you’ve fed, watered, housed, transported,
connected, educated, entertained, and healed the masses of humanity, you’ve pretty much
maxed out the fundamental innovations you can expect in the human phase space.
In other words: From the average person’s perspective, we can expect “more, better, with less”
of each of the above in the 21st century, but increasingly less disruptive social change.
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New York
Palo Alto
Increasingly, innovative 21st century developments must occur in technology intelligence
and autonomy—on the other side of the event horizon from common human experience.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Networks and Immune Systems:
Universal, Biological, and Technological
A Hidden Protector of Accelerating Change
Our Generation’s Theme
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
First World Saturating
Emerging Nations Gap-Closing
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Network Economy 1.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America as of
2003, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?
Remittances
(From Guest Workers in
U.S. and Canada)
Foreign Direct
Investment
(Corporate)
NGO’s
(Nonprofit Contribs)
Government Aid
(IMF, WB, G8, USAID)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Tools for Networking 1.0:
Social Network Analysis
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free)
networks.
 “20% of U.S. couples who got married in 2006 met online.”
(John Seely Brown)
Q: Does LinkedIn have path-dependency?

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Palo Alto
“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Networks Breed Immunity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003
Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The New Paradigm: Out of (Individual) Control.
The Wisdom of the (Well Organized) Crowd.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
U.S. Transcontinental Railroad:
Promontory Point Fervor
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Built mostly by hardworking immigrants
The Network of the 1880’s
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New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
IT Globalization (2000-2020):
Promontory Point Revisited
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The more things change,
the more some things
stay the same.
The intercontinental internet will be built primarily
by hungry young IT developers in India, Asia, thirdworld Europe, Latin America, and other developing
economic zones.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the
First World technical support population between fiveand ten-to-one.
Consider what this means for the goals of U.S.
business and education: Global management,
partnerships, and collaboration.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Likely Network Society Developments:
Staggered Closing of Global Divides
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of
the world now has access to a telephone*.
Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom
Education divide may close next (postConversational Interface, post-2020)
Income divide may close next. Developed
world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower
than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global
workforce wages since 1990’s*.
Power divide is likely to close last. Political
change is the slowest of all domains.
*World Bank, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Our Greatest Strategic Interest:
Managing Globalization
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“America has had 200 years to
invent, regenerate, and calibrate
the balance that keeps markets free
without becoming monsters. We
have the tools to make a difference.
We have the responsibility to make
a difference. And we have a huge
interest in making a difference.
Managing globalization is… our
overarching national interest
today and the political party that
understands that first… will own the
real bridge to the future.”
Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and
the Olive Tree: Understanding
Globalization (2000).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Globalization Management
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Backlash forces have to be kept in check by:
•
•
•
Global tech innovation and diffusion
Global economic growth
Global political
•
•
•
•
•
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Palo Alto
accountability
transparency
fair policies
minimal government (maximizing tech and
economic development)
security
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Globalized Networks (for a Hard Problem):
24/7 Affordable Tech Support and Education
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers
80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working
at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India)
+ 140 million U.S. labor force (2000).
+ Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems
+ Commodity communications costs
+ PC transparency software (Gotomypc)
+ Trust (Privacy)
= 24/7 Tech Education
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New York
Palo Alto
How soon? Watch Dell…
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Globalized Networks (for a Hard Problem):
24/7 Affordable Health Care
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When will we see the first HMO willing to fly its
patients globally for procedures?
To train international physicians in a global
24/7 advice and access network?
International ‘medical tourism’ is already a
booming industry.
In vitro fert. in Israel: $12K vs. 90K in US
Heart surgery in India: $20K vs. 200K
And outcomes are often even better!
(higher volume, more specialization).
There are huge political barriers but major
opportunities as well.
4G Web: Personalized physician access 24/7,
allowing preventative medicine, finally.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Kaiser? Subspecialty HMO leader.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap:
Our New Global Defense Paradigm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
The Core Countries vs the Technologically,
Culturally, and Economically Disconnected
Gap Countries, which together form a
socio-computational “Ozone Hole.”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Public Transparency:
Privacy vs. Anonymity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Wearcam.org’s
first-generation
‘sousveillance’
systems
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
David Brin’s “Panopticon”
The Transparent Society, 1998
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New York
Palo Alto
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper
currency
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion:
Convergent Technology in a Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters)
Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins)
Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours)
Next Gen: Video recording.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Networked Transparent Weapons
(NTWs) convert security systems
from intrinsically offensive
intrinsically defensive assets.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras,
Camera Traps and Mesh Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Red light camera
(Beaverton, OR)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005)
WoodsWatcher, $285
We can buy $200 surveillance
cameras at Wal-Mart (2005).
When are we going to see $20
camera traps for personal property?
When in developing nations?
Rare and previously thought extinct
animals are being discovered.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Digital Transparency:
Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie
clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam,
What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits
(2003) are early examples of “lifelogs,”
(aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for
recording, auto-archiving and autoindexing all life experience.
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New York
Palo Alto
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add
NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this
data begins turning into wisdom.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:
User-Modified 3D Persistent Worlds
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Global Collaboration and
Coexperience Environments
Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others
Streaming video coming 2008.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future Salon in Second Life
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground)
of our Global Network Society
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sputnik (1957)
Humbot 0.1 (2005)
Humbot 1.0 (2030)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0?
This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Intelligence Amplification (IA) and
Autonomous Intelligence (AI):
From Writing to the Digital Twin, or
from the Plow to the Self-Repairing Robot
Collective Bio-Technological Development
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’
a Human-Machine Superorganism
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social
animals are parts of “superorganisms.”
Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their
genetics compel them to construct.
Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Understanding Process Automation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Perhaps 80% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics
(Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
Human contribution (20%?) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings.
Termite Mound
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Back to the Greek Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit



400BCE Greece built an affluent empire on
the backs of human slaves.
21C humanity is building an even greater one
on the backs of our robotic servants.
Expect machine emancipation, too.
The more things change,
the more some things stay the same.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Coevolutionary Ideal:
Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Pluralistic
Positive-Sum
Differentiated
“Both/And”
versus
versus
versus
versus
Examples:
Calculator Use
Computer/TV Use
Metaverse Use
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Plutocratic
Zero-Sum
Homogeneous
“Either/Or”
Math Skills
Social/Study Skills
Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Conversational Interface (CI):
Circa 2015 Developmental Attractor
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a more efficient
communication modality.
Ananova, 2002
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Post 2015: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
 A time
when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the
commercial digital world emerged.
New problems have emerged (population, human rights,
asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions
for each in coming waves of technological globalization.
“The human does not change, but our house
becomes exponentially more intelligent.”
We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their
human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,
who realized the core acceleration is due to
the intrinsic properties of technological systems.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2040’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Picture Challenge
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Getting Acceleration and Evo Devo
Studies Funded and Used Globally
There are components (operations research, network
theory, roadmapping), but no formal programs anywhere.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Act III: The Painter
Living With
Forces and Choices
in an Accelerating World
Leadership and Organizational
Development
Guiding Accelerating Change
The Challenge in Managing
Technological Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Since the birth of civilization, humanity has been
learning to build special types of technological systems
that are progressively able to do more for us, in a more
networked and resilient fashion, using less resources
(matter, energy, space, time, human and economic
capital) to deliver any fixed amount of complexity,
productivity, or capability.
We are faced daily with many possible evolutionary
choices in which to invest our precious time, energy,
and resources, but only a few optimal developmental
pathways will clearly "do more, and better, with less."
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Organizational Development (Behavior Change)
is a Long-Term Process
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Can take 3 years to a generation
Need long term reasons, consistent w/ mission&values.
Find a coalition of champions at the top. One usually
isn’t enough. She will retire.
Org. narratives must be involved. New direction/story
must be an enhancement to old direction/story.
Enlist all stakeholders (internal and external)
Provide support for those who react to change as
loss/death: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, then
Acceptance.
“People change when they feel the heat and see the
light (ahead, at least).” Neither alone is enough.
Communicate, communicate, communicate, and listen.
*Jim Burke, Futures, Forecasting, & Change Mgmt, Northrop Grumman IT Intell.Group
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Culture of Transformation:
Leading Change in Large Organizations
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Professor of Leadership, HBS. Eight Steps:
1. Establish a sense of urgency.
2. Form a powerful guiding coalition
starting with a small, hand-picked team.
3. Create a vision.
4. Communicate that vision (along with mandates
and priorities).
5. Empower others to act on the vision.
6. Plan for and create short-term wins.
7. Consolidate improvements, reward progress,
and keep momentum.
8. Institutionalize the new approaches.
Classic article: Leading Change: Why
Transformation Efforts Fail,
John P. Kotter, HBR, Jan 1995/07, 10p.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Networking 2.0 Strategic Proposal:
Innovate, Collaborate, and “Fight for 40%”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company)
laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership.
Is this a true innovation partnership?
We can make the deal so interdependent that
it must be.
Technology interdependence runs ahead of
corporate interdependence which leads
political interdependence today globally.
(Not usually the reverse).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator:
Lessons of Bose and Microvision
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy
(often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Culture of Collective Intelligence:
Five Minds for the Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Professor of Psych and Ed, Harvard.
1. Disciplinary mind—mastery of major schools of
thought (including science, math, and history)
and one or more professional skills
2. Synthesizing mind—ability to integrate ideas
from different disciplines into a coherent whole
and to communicate that synthesis to others
3. Creating mind—ability to develop, clarify, and
uncover new problems and solutions to
phenomena
4. Respectful mind—awareness of and
appreciation for differences among individuals
and groups
5. Ethical mind—fulfillment of one’s responsibilities
as a worker, citizen, and world citizen
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Traits for a cooperative, globalized, accelerating world.”
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral (Balanced and Complete)
Foresight Models
A Brief Overview
Three Types of Foresight Studies:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Futures Studies (Evolutionary possibility)
– “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives)
Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)
– “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes)
Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)
– “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive
feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous)
Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in
today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Nevertheless, there are few primary academic
programs in FS to date (10 total, after thirty years),
and none in DS or AS (by name at least).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Grad Foresight Programs: Futures Studies
(Primary and Secondary), STS, Roadmapping
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Futures Studies (three U.S. and ten total primary FS grad programs,
hundreds of secondary FS grad programs)
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Primary FS Subject Areas: Alternative Futures, Environmental/Horizon Scanning, Forecasting, Foresight,
Futures Studies, Futurology, History of Prediction, Long-Range Planning, Prediction Markets, Prediction
Surveys/Delphi, Probabilistic Prediction/Prediction Analysis, Prognostics, Prospective Studies, Roadmapping,
Scenario Development, Science-Fiction and Futurist Literature, Strategic Foresight, Trend Extrapolation,
Visioning
Secondary FS Subject Areas: Actuarial Science, Anthropology, Architecture, Astrobiology, Biological Sciences,
Bioethics, Biotechnology, Business Administration, Chemical Sciences, Cliometrics, Complexity Studies,
Computer Modeling/Simulation, Computer Science, Contemporary/Cultural Studies, Cybernetics, Decision
Analysis/Decision Theory, Defense/National Security Studies, Demographics, Development,
Disaster/Catastrophe Avoidance, Economics, Econometrics, Education, Engineering, Evolutionary Studies,
Game Theory, Gambling Studies, Generational Studies, Geography, History, History of Science and Technology,
Information Science, Innovation Studies, Investing (including Futures), Management, Management Science,
Marketing, Mathematics, Operations Research, Philosophy, Philosophy of Science and Technology, Physical
Sciences, Planning, Policy Analysis, Political Science, Psychology, Policy Analysis, Science and Technology
Studies, Sociology, Statistics, Strategic Planning, Sustainable Development, Systems Studies, Technology
Policy, Theology, Tourism, Urban Studies, Utopian Studies
2. Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs)
3. Tech Roadmapping (~10 U.S. programs. First Tech Roadmapping PhD
awarded under Mike Radnor, at Northwestern in 1998).
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Tech Roadmapping is a process presently being used to guide major R&D investment in industry (e.g. ITRS,
which began as NTRS only in 1992). Futures Studies, STS and Tech Roadmapping are each particularly
promising areas for the emergence of Development and Acceleration Studies.
For a global list of FS programs: accelerating.org/gradprograms.html
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Where are the U.S. College Courses
in Foresight Development?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Tamkang University
27,000 undergrads
Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan
Like history and
current affairs, futures
studies (15 courses to
choose from) have
been a general
education requirement
since 1995.
Why not here?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral (Balanced and Complete) Foresight:
Greeks, Pronouns, Skill Sets and Processes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
True
What Is
It/Its
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Greeks
Good
What ‘We’ Want
Pronouns
We/He/She/You
Beautiful
What ‘I’ Want
I/Me
Discovery
Global
Foresight Skill Sets
Management
Social/Organizational
Processes of Change
Creativity
Individual
Development
Convergence
System Dynamics
Laws/Emergences
Evolution
Divergence
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Systemic Thinking:
Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
It/Its
We/He/She/You
I/Me
White
Yellow
Red
(Facts)
(Social Positive)
(Intuition)
Blue
Black
Green
(Process)
(Social Negative)
(Creative)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Perspectives/Processes:
Ken Wilber’s Four Quadrants
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Perspectives/Processes
We need foresight in all four
quadrants (processes and
management tests).
• All of these drive change.
• None can be reduced to the others
• There are no others as basic!
Management/Validity Tests
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Intelligences:
Gardner’s Eight ‘Frames’ of Mind
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Gardner has developed research and
metrics for eight different “frames” or
“modules” of human capacity.
A promising way to look at thinking.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Intelligences:
Gardner’s ‘Frames’ and Wilber’s ‘Lines’
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
 Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
I (Innovating)
Intrapersonal/Self-Identity
 Body/Kinesthetic/Health
 Cog-Emot/Needs/Self-Care
 Creativity/Innovating/Vision

It (MEST Mgmt - Benefiting)
Visual/Spatial
 Aural/Musical
 MEST/Thing-Care
 Decisionmaking/Adapting

We (Social Mgmt - Planning)
Interpersonal/Social-Identity
 Linguistic/Social-Narrative
 Intimacy/Social-Care
 Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation

Its (Predicting)
Nature/Systems
 Logical/Mathematical
 Object Relatns/Structure-Care
 Discovery/Predictive/Counting
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Wilber proposes additional intelligence lines/dimensions on top of Gardner’s. I’ve
mapped nine of his to his four quadrants above.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Wilber also proposes that all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher
levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence
attractor that continually tries to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Foresight Practices:
Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IPBP)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Innovating/Creating (I)
Thinking and acting by personally preferred futures
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Planning/Negotiating (We)
Thinking and acting by social consensus plans
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Benefiting/Measuring (It)
Thinking and acting by objectively measurable results

Predicting/Discovering (Its)
Thinking and acting by statistically predictive forecasts
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Foresight Practices:
Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IBPB)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
I (Individual/Self)
Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual)
Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Benefiting
Tech
Econ-Political
We (Social/Kinship)
Consensus-Driven Futures
Its (Global/Species)
Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Predicting
Social-Political
Science
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Exercise: Categorize these Foresight Practices as
Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, or Predicting
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
sci-fi and utopian studies
budgeting
accounting and finance
business intelligence
scenarios and creative thinking
roadmapping
social and environmental impact
marketing research
individual visioning
management by consensus
business IT (ERP, CRM, etc.)
soft sciences and systems theory
social networking
collective visioning
innovation
command leadership
enterprise planning
management by meas. results
forecasting and trends
sci-tech R&D
conflict resolution
risk management and insurance
management by forecast
entrepreneurship
strategic planning
scanning
history of prediction
community building
statistics and actuarial science
hard sciences
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Foresight Practices:
Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Innovating/Creating (I)
Management by personal preferred futures: command leadership,
sci-fi and utopian studies, visioning, creative thinking, scenarios,
entrepreneurship, innovation, sci-tech R&D (some)
Planning/Negotiating (We)
Management by social consensus: social networking, collective
visioning, conflict resolution, community building, strategic planning,
budgeting, roadmapping, enterprise robustness planning
Benefiting/Measuring (It)
Management by measurable results: accounting, finance,
measured economic, social, and environmental benefits, risk
management (insurance), hedging, business IT (ERP, CRM, etc.)
Predicting/Discovering (Its)
Management by forecast (soft to hard): scanning, marketing
research, business intelligence, soft sciences and systems theory,
history of prediction, forecasting, statistical trends, actuarial
science, hard sciences, sci-tech R&D (some)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Foresight Model:
Five Domains and Three Types of Futures Studies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

Acceleration Studies (Universal System Attractor)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 Futures Studies
(Evolutionary)
Technological
 Innovating

It (Organizational/Contractual)
Benefit-Driven Futures
Economic-Political
 Benefiting

We (Social/Kinship)
Consensus-Driven Futures
Social
 Planning

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Development Studies
(Developmental)
I (Individual/Self)
Creativity-Driven Futures
Its (Global/Species)
Research-Driven Futures
Scientific
 Predicting
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Question: Which of the five domains is unlike the others? The universal system grows
asymptotically via science and technology, and secondarily via economic and social
change. All five domains or systems levels (individual, kinship tribe, contractual tribe,
species, universe) and foresight types are likely to be astrobiologically developmental.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Integral Foresight Model:
Possible, Preferable, and Possible Futures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
I (Individual/Self)
Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual)
Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Benefiting
Tech
Econ-Political
We (Social/Kinship)
Consensus-Driven Futures
Its (Global/Species)
Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Predicting
Social-Political
Science
Futures Studies is about “Three P’s and a W”: Possible,
Preferable, and Probable Futures (plus Wildcards) – Roy Amara
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
+
Prediction Markets, Delphi, and
the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Some MEST Compression and
Developmental Implications
Considering the Air and Space
Intelligence Environment
Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression
Everywhere in the World
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > PayPal
Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005)
Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming
videophone virtual offices)
Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail
Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001)
Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea)
Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples)
Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon,
eBay)
Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
John Boyd: Energy-Maneuverability Theory
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Jet’s Maneuverability (Average Kinetic Energy) =
(Thrust minus Drag over Weight) x Velocity
Led Boyd and the USAF “Lightweight Fighter Mafia” to
strongly advocate radical lightweighting and design
improvements to the F-15 and F-16.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
For all Boyd briefs and commentary, visit Chet Richard’s site:
www.d-n-i.net/second_level/boyd_military.htm
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression and Reaction Time:
Boyd’s OODA Loop
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Rise of maneuver vs. attrition warfare (fast infantry > cavalry > ground vehicles > jet fighters > netwar)
Since Napoleon’s fast infantry, the best tech continually “gets inside the decision cycle” of the opponent.
Latest Manifastation: “Rapid Dominance/Shock and Awe” Strategy. Gulf War I and II (beginning).
-- Massive communication (land, air, space) and air power (recon, bombers, fighters, missiles).
-- Target enemy command and control.
A) Total command of the skies and B) overwhelming firepower are not enough. They must be C)
deployable inside the enemy’s OODA loop. Israel had A&B in the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, but
Hezbollah had better and faster ground maneuverability and concealment. Stalemate.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Superior Energy-Maneuverability and Rapid OODA:
The Tactical Advantage of Small, Expert Teams
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Small teams can:
-- Rapidly innovate and adapt
-- Operate below the radar (stealth)
-- Have superior urgency and purpose
-- Ignore convention and pursue vision
-- Get hand-picked excellence and resources
-- Sustain their speed via redundancy and reserves
-- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory as needed
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
These are increasingly critical advantages in a globalized,
accelerating, network-centric world.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
COIN, Irregular Warfare, and US Air Force Special Ops:
A Leading Role in the Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future joint (JFCOM and International) operational priorities:
Countering global extended insurgencies (presently 120).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sometimes the more you protect your COIN/SOF
force, vs. the host populace, the less secure you are.
Sometimes the more force is used the less effective it is.
Sometimes doing nothing (in response) is the best action.
The more successful the counterinsurgency op, the less it must
be used (vs. police) and the more risk accepted.
The best counterinsurgency weapons (public support, economic
development, political participation, hope) do not shoot.
Usually, helping the host nation do something tolerably is better
(to the host public) than us doing it well.
Tactical success guarantees nothing. Tactics are highly time and
context dependent.
Many of the most important decisions are made by “strategic
corporals,” not generals.
From: Counterinsurgency, Army FM 3-24, David Petraeus, James Amos, et. al. (2006), p. 27
© 2007 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression and Quality:
PDCA Improvement Cycle, ISO Standards
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Plan:
Do:
Check:
Act:
(Walter) Shewhart Cycle
(Bell Labs)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
W. Edwards Deming
Quality Statistician
Design/revise business process for best ROI
Implement plan with measurement tools
Analyze results, report to decisionmakers
Decide on changes to improve process
Shewhart and Deming developed tools for Quality
Management via statistical process control
(understanding and eliminating variation)
• Sampling techniques
• ANOVA, etc.
• Hypothesis testing
• Finding common/systemic and
special/external causes of variation
He favored cooperation over competition.
1. Appreciation for a system
2. Knowledge about variation
3. Knowledge of human psychology
4. A theory of knowledge
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Seven Basic Tools of Quality Control
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Flowchart. Detailed description of a production
process
2. Check sheet. A structured form for collecting and
analyzing variance and quality data.
3. Pareto chart. A bar graph arranging variance factors
by significance.
4. Cause-and-effect diagram (fishbone chart). Possible
causes for an effect or problem.
5. Histogram. Graph of frequency distributions, or how
often each different value occurs in a data set.
6. Scatter diagram. Graphs pairing numerical data, one
variable per axis, to look for a relationship.
7. Control chart. Display of statistically determined
upper and lower control limits on a process average.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
asq.org: a leading quality management organization
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Operations Research / Management Science
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
A basic paradigm for modeling complex
problems in optimization, logistics, and
planning including queuing, supply
chain mgmt, production lines, disease
progression, etc. Key skills:
● Frame
● Formulate
● Solve
Understanding applied probability is a
core underpinning of OR. Can you
work from basic principles, or are you
doing pattern recognition to find an
algorithm and “turning the crank”? The
latter often yields inappropriate models.
Also, most nonlinear real world
problems are not easily modeled.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Subjective Judgment, Collective Intelligence,
and Cognitive Diversity
Improving Prediction and Security
Humans are Prediction Systems
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Jeff Hawkins,
Inventor, PalmPilot,
CTO, Palm Computing
Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute
Author, On Intelligence: How a New
Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the
Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Subjective (“Bayesian”) Probability
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

Q: What is the probability GPS (and GPS blackboxing) will be
embedded in >80% of new small arms and light weapons (SALW)
produced globally in 2030?

A probability of subjective belief vs. frequency probability (R.A.
Fisher, Egon Pearson, Jerzy Neyman, etc.). Developed since the
1950’s by Frank Ramsey, L.J. Savage, Harold Jeffreys, etc.)
Heavy and abstract math. Bayesian probability, sampling, Cox’s
theorem, Jayne’s principle of maximum entropy, etc.
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Expert Political Judgment: (Nimble) Foxes and
(Doctrinal) Hedgehogs and Boom/Doom Ratio
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A 20 year research project on political forecasting. Philip Tetlock collected 1000’s of
predictions from 100’s of experts on the fate of dozens of countries, and scored them
for accuracy after the fact (prediction analysis). He evaluates predictions from experts vs. well-informed laity
vs. those based on simple trend extrapolation. He also asks which styles of thinking are more successful in
forecasting.
Findings:
• Using political philosopher Isaiah Berlin's thinking style prototypes of the fox and the
hedgehog, Tetlock contends the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from
an eclectic array of traditions, and can improvise in response to changing events--is more
successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils
devotedly in one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems.
• Boom and doom pundits are the most egregious and consistent overclaimers.
• Between 1985 and 2005, boomsters made 10-year forecasts that exaggerated the
chances of big positive changes in both financial markets (e.g., a Dow Jones Industrial
Average of 36,000) and world politics (e.g., tranquility in the Middle East and dynamic
growth in sub-Saharan Africa). They assigned probabilities of 65% to rosy scenarios that
materialized only 15% of the time.
• In the same period, doomsters performed even more poorly, exaggerating the chances of negative changes in
all the same places where boomsters accentuated the positive, plus several more (e.g., the disintegration of
Canada, Nigeria, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Belgium, and Sudan). They assigned probabilities of 70% to
bleak scenarios that materialized only 12% of the time. I suspect this boom/doom ratio is generalizable.
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Media bias for extremism: Tetlock notes an ironically inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators
of good judgment and the qualities the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to
prevail in ideological combat. Rather than get penalized for their errors, the media showers extremists (those
using the appropriate language) with attention (providing greater drama), neglecting their more moderate
colleagues. Rarely are predictions revisited.
Princeton University Press (review); ProgressDaily.com, Sam Koritz (2006)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Prediction, True Belief, and Disconfirmation
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When Prophecy Fails, Leon Festinger, 1956. Classic study of a
1950’s midwestern US end-of-the-world UFO cult.
Lesson: It takes three unequivocal disconfirmations to mostly
kill a movement of true believers. Even then some hang on.
Equivocal disconfirmations are even less powerful.
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Preconditions leading to increased conviction following
evidence that disconfirms a strongly held belief (religious,
political, organizational, personal):
1. Preexisting conviction.
2. Commitment (by irrevocable action).
3. Social support subsequent to the disconfirmation.
Each are amenable to social engineering (see Uganda Rising).
For 1: Funding well-connected moderate groups.
For 2: Amnesty and “ritual reparations” for irrevocable acts.
For 3: Facilitating support groups for the breakaways.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Fanaticism, Welfare, and Adolescence
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The True Believer, Eric Hoffer, 1951. The landmark study of
fanaticism and protest movements.
Both the poor on welfare and the affluent adolescent
(1960’s youth, Saudi jihadists, etc.) are “prevented [for
similar reasons] from having a share in the world's work and
of proving their manhood by doing a man’s [adult’s] work
and getting a man’s pay." They remain in adolescence, lack
critical self-esteem, and are prone to join mass movements
“as a form of compensation” and individuation.
Hoffer proposed a social engineering solution to fanaticism:
Meaningful work as a rite of passage into adulthood, a
guaranteed 2-year civilian national service program, like the
Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps. This has been
utilized in Israel, Singapore, etc. to great effect, but it
remains underutilized in non-embattled, affluent nations.
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"The routinization of the passage from boyhood to manhood would contribute to the solution
of many of our pressing problems. I cannot think of any other undertaking that would dovetail
so many of our present difficulties into opportunities for growth." – E. Hoffer, 1970’s
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Collective Attractors in the Network Society:
Positive Sum Games, Infotopia, Wikinomics
Acceleration
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
Collaboration motivations, dynamics, and economics (and the
trust, privacy, and reputation frameworks that enable
collaboration) are the new social science frontier.

Collaboration input, output, and utility will be greatly accelerated
by a Wearable Web and Conversational Interface, which in
turn will change the nature of culture, work and security.
Breakdowns in collaboration and privacy will become the new
policy concerns.
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Universal Game Theory and Global Security
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Economics (experimental econ, neuroecon, etc.),
anthropology, evolutionary biology, psychology, and
sociology are converging to provide a framework for
understanding the universal human urge to cooperate.
Universal game theory/cooperation theory/social contract
theory has been invigorated by Ernest Fehr’s Ultimatum
Game. Two people share a windfall (say $10). Person A gets
to propose the split, Person B must accept. Typical splits
are 5-5 or 6-4, never 9-1 (Homo economicus). In some
places (Lamalera, Indonesia) splits are consistently 4-6.
Equity is the rational economic choice under the right
conditions. Understanding how those conditions break
down is the key to effective law, policy, and national
security.
Moral Sentiments and
Material Interests, Herb
Gintis et. al. (2006)
All our economic, legal, and social structures (value of our fiat currency, stock
market, law, social custom) are best understood as iterated positive sum games.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Wisdom of Markets:
Extracting the Odds
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Think about the reliability of high incentive markets
like horse racing and other parimutuel betting.
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Think about the “wisdom” of capital markets:
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Classic study: “Reliability of Subjective Evaluations in High
Incentive Situations,” A. Hoerl and H. Fallin, J. of Royal Stat.
Soc, V137N2 (1974). The twelve positions of finishers at
Aqueduct and Belmont (1970, NY) were consistently
predicted by the odds, with narrow error margins
(aggregation of 1,825 races).
90% of individual fund managers and 95% of bond managers
do worse than the collective intelligence of the overall market.
James Suroweicki, RAHS Symposium, Mar 2007; See also “The Economics of Wagering
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Markets,” Raymond Sauer, J. of Econ. Literature, Dec 1998
Prediction/Idea/Decision Markets
and the Wisdom of Crowds
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Aggregation of opinions is the new frontier for prediction/ innovation/
decisionmaking. Google realized there was hidden opinion order in an
apparently chaotic net. PageRank captured that order, created much
more relevant search.
Avoids bias. Michael Jensen, HBS, “Forecasting is paying people to lie.”
Sample Internal Markets:
Eli Lilly. Drug efficacy and market size.
Siemens. Software project length.
Google. Over 200 markets (experimental)
Microsoft. Software development.
Hewlett-Packard. Sales projections.
Three Requirements:
1. Cognitive Diversity (“The Difference”)
2. Independence
3. Aggregation Tools (still primitive)
Real Money Markets:
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Play Money/Reputation Markets:
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Bernardo Huberman: Groups Can Be Both “Better
than the Best (Individual)” and “Better than Market”
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How organizations predict:
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Markets work by revealing aggregate info about future predictions
(see Friedrich von Hayek, Robert Lucas, Nobel-winning economists).
Why are Iowa Electronic Markets consistently better than exit polls?
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“Money’s on the table, so posturing motivations cancel out.”
To extract aggregate odds/risk attitudes, internal markets need:
–
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Have meetings (lots!)
Ask (favorite) external experts
(biased sample, methodology)
Designate internal forecasters
(bias toward mgmt)
Take a vote (usually unhelpful)
Strong incentive (money, reputation, promotion)
Diversity / enough trading volume to be resistant to manipulation
Option of privacy (for bearers of bad news)
HP Labs, Behaviorally Robust Agg. of Info in Networks (BRAIN). 2 Parts:
1. Betting game to identify risk profiles (amazingly stable per individual)
2. Betting game (not a market) to generate and aggregate predictions.
BRAIN predicts HP monthly revenues and operating profits better than
best individual, and better than the market (minor but replicable).
See: tinyurl.com/3d4prs and key Huberman, Chen, & Fine papers: Info. Systems Frontiers, V5,
© 2007 Accelerating.org
47-61 (2003) tinyurl.com/2xdnux; Mgmt. Science, V50, 983-94 (2004) tinyurl.com/yue869
Cognitive Diversity in Small Groups
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Diversity and Optimality (1998). Lu Hong, Scott E. Page, Dept. of Econ,
Syracuse U, and Dept. of Econ., U. of Iowa, 27 p.
A general [computational] model of diverse problem solvers of limited
abilities. We use this model to derive two main results: (1) a collection of
diverse, bounded problem solvers can locate optimal solutions to difficult
problems and (2) a collection of problem solvers of diverse abilities tends
to jointly outperform a collection of high ability problem solvers, where a
problem solver's ability equals her expected individual performance.
Diversity is as important as ability for:
• Poorly defined problems (nonlinear
optimization, prediction, horiz. scanning…)
• Innovation
• What else?
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See also:
Symbiotic Intelligence Project
Norman Johnson, LANL
http://ishi.lanl.gov/
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Assessing Cognitive Diversity:
StrengthsFinder and other Psych Testing Tools
Acceleration
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Peter Drucker: Individuals should discover and
focus on building their best strengths, much more
than fixing their weaknesses, to make their best
and happiest contribution to the world.
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Weaknesses in turn can be best managed by:
1. Being aware of strengths you don’t have
2. Joining strengths-complementary teams
3. Allowing others to lead from their different strengths
4. Building situational intelligence (routines, tools, brief courses,
etc.) to keep you from getting tripped up by your weaknesses.
Gallup’s StrengthsFinder (and other psych profiling assessments like
MBTI, DiSC, etc.) are predictive futures tools.
How validated are they? (Gallup lists 34 strengths, large polling set)
 How complete are they (strengths and weaknesses, integral)?
 When will they be a required part of our educational, hiring (AMA:
only 39% of U.S. companies use psych testing in hiring, mostly still
minor, not yet open source), and assessment processes?
 We are still very early in this process. Major opportunity ahead.

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Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision
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+
Prediction Markets, Delphi, and
the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend Analysis I:
Some General and Technology Trends
“Language is a Technology”
Development Studies I:
Irreversible and Progressively Emergent
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Historical Examples:
 The Wheel
 Electricity
 Democracy
 Emancipation
Future Examples?:
 Public Transparency (End of Anonymity)
 The Conversational Interface
 The Metaverse
 The Valuecosm
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Development Studies II:
Irreversible and Cyclically Emergent
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Historical Examples:
 Individuation vs. Conformity (Pendulum)
 Plutocracy vs. Democracy (Pendulum)
 Materialism, Idealism, Conflict Resolution (Cycle)
 Quaternary Generations (Cycle)
 Guns (Japanese and Chinese history.
Nonlethals today.)
 Warfare (Archaic Age rise, Empires Age peak, 21st
Century rise and fall)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Cycles and Pendulums:
Decomposing them from a Time Series
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Sorokin’s Material, Ideal, Conflict (MIC) triphasic
social cycle (fractal)
Strauss & Howe’s generational cycles
(quadphasic, seasonal).
Kondratieff / Long Waves (innovation studies)
Private vs. public domain Intellectual Property
(“lawyers vs. hackers”)
Proprietary vs. open standards (and intellectual
property)
Consolidation vs. proliferation of standards (HD
DVD vs. Blu-Ray) and providers (Graphics Cards)
Plutocracy vs. democracy
Hype cycle (Gartner, Amara’s Law)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Exercise: Identify
the Logistic Phase
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Current Year if Date Not Given:
 Air Transportation
 World Population (1960)
 World Population (2000)
 MOS Computing Price/Performance
 Copper Twisted Pair Communication Price/Performance
 Novel Classical Music (or any Genre)
 Internet Users
 Bacterial Growth on introduction to new media
 Rabbit Population Growth on introduction to Australia
 Ocean Pollution
 Global Energy Intensity (Gigajoules/capita used annually)
 Global CO2 Production
 Global Digital Divide (Between 1st and Emerging World)
 Global Education Divide
 Global Economic Divide
 Global “Power” Divide
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Tech Capacity Growth Trends and Thresholds
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Learning/Experience Curves (Henderson’s law) and Market Thresholds
Microcosmic Efficiency Growth (Mead, Drexler, Smart) and Market Thresholds
Miniaturization Growth and Market Thresholds
Algorithmic Efficiency Growth (Software and Hardware) (Ebrahimi’s law)
and Market Thresholds
Digital Storage Capacity Growth – Hard Disks (Kryder’s law)
and Market Thresholds
Digital Storage Capacity Growth – Flash Disks (eg, IBM’s “phase” material,
80X faster than current flash) and the Lifelog Threshold
Computing Growth (Moore’s law) and
Human Competitive Machine Performance (HCMP) Thresholds
Visualization Growth (Smith’s law) and the Reality Threshold
Wired Bandwidth Growth (Gilder’s, Nielsen’s law) and the
Virtual Organization Threshold
Wireless Bandwidth Growth (Cooper’s law) and Mobility Thresholds
GPS- and Video-equipped Cellphone Growth and the
Transparent Society Threshold
Network Address Density Growth (Poor’s law) and the LPS Threshold
Flat Panel Display Growth (Nishimura’s law) and the Video Wall Threshold
Battery Performance Growth and the Pervasive Computing Threshold
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Great (Ideological) Trends Books, and
Julian L. Simon & Simon-Ehrlich Wager
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Simon: Natural resource prices stay relatively
steady or drop because:

As scarcity increases, price rises, creating
incentive to
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Discover more
Increase efficiency of extraction
Increase efficiency of use
Ration / reduce use
Recycle
Develop substitutes
Julian Simon
Paul Ehrlich
Social Sciences Quarterly, 1980:
Real price of five metals (picked
by Ehrlich) will be higher in 1990
Ehrlich lost.
Human invention and adaptation are the
“ultimate resource.”
Within limits, the addition of population
just increases our inventiveness and
adaptation
Within limits, most natural resources will
have stable or falling costs going forward
“[Almost all] Conditions (for humanity)
have been getting better. There is no
convincing reason why these trends
should not continue indefinitely.”
More on Simon-Ehrlich Wager: en.wikipidia.org/wiki/Ehrlich-Simon_bet
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Second Simon-Ehrlich Wager (1994-2004, Proposed):
Some Trends Are Going the Wrong Way (At Present)
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Fifteen trends, $1,000 per trend, again picked by Paul Ehrlich (1995-2005).
Simon avoided the basket bet. Which of these would you have taken?
1. The three years 2002-2004 will on average be warmer than 1992-1994.
2. There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994.
3. There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than 1994.
4. The concentration of ozone in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) will be greater
than in 1994.
5. Emissions of the air pollutant sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly greater in 2004
than in 1994.
6. There will be less fertile [planted] cropland per person in 2004 than in 1994.
7. There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than 1994.
8. There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person in 2002-2004 than in
1992-1994.
9. In developing nations there will be less firewood available per person in 2004 than in
1994.
10. The remaining area of virgin tropical moist forests will be significantly smaller in 2004
than in 1994.
11. The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its downward trend and thus in
2004 will be smaller than in 1994.
12. There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in 2004 than in 1994.
13. More people will die of AIDS in 2004 than in 1994.
14. Between 1994 and 2004, sperm cell counts of human males will continue to decline and
reproductive disorders will continue to increase.
15. The gap in wealth between the richest 10% of humanity and the poorest 10% will be
greater in 2004 than in 1994.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Second Simon-Ehrlich Wager (1994-2004, Proposed):
Some Trends Are Going the Wrong Way (At Present)
Acceleration
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*(My intuitive assessments. Unfortunately,
Fifteen trends, $1,000 per trend (1995-2005).
I’ve never seen these formally estimated.)
Which of these would you have taken?
1. The three years 2002-2004 will on average be warmer than 1992-1994. YES*
2. There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994. YES*
3. There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than 1994. YES*
4. The concentration of ozone in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) will be greater
than in 1994. YES*
5. Emissions of the air pollutant sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly greater in 2004
than in 1994. YES*
6. There will be less fertile [planted] cropland per person in 2004 than in 1994. YES*
7. There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than 1994. YES*
8. There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person in 2002-2004 than
in 1992-1994. NO
9. In developing nations there will be less firewood available per person in 2004 than in
1994. YES*
10. The remaining area of virgin tropical moist forests will be significantly smaller in 2004
than in 1994. YES*
11. The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its downward trend and thus in
2004 will be smaller than in 1994. YES*
12. There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in 2004 than in 1994. YES*
13. More people will die of AIDS in 2004 than in 1994. YES*
14. Between 1994 and 2004, sperm cell counts of human males will continue to decline and
reproductive disorders will continue to increase. YES*
15. The gap in wealth between the richest 10% of humanity and the poorest 10% will
be greater in 2004 than in 1994. YES* (But distribution is normalizing)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Cereals Production/Capita Trend
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Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 20
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trends and Simulation: International Futures
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Barry Hughes, U. Denver.
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A leading global change simulation
30 years of research, free for public use
Demographics, economics, energy,
agriculture, sociopolitical, environment
Trends, predeveloped scenarios, country
data analysis (184 countries)
Educational tool became a forecasting and
policy research tool
Short on S&T insight, unfortunately.
Global Problematique
and Global Progress
need to balance.
See du.edu/~bhughes
Strongly recommended
Trends textbook:
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Global Oil Production Trend (Hubbert Curve)
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Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 28
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Gapminder.org:
Statistics brought to life
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Global marginal income
distribution is normalizing.
Is this a technology trend?
1970: Isolated economies
2000: Connected, flattening
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Bimodal Distribution:
Two Stories of the Future
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“Never have so many known so little about so much
(of our technological world).” – James Burke
Knowledge/Wealth/Power
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“Never have so many known (and had)
so much.” – Julian Simon
Educational/Wealth/Power Percentile
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“Never have so many known (and had) so much, and
so many more known (and had) so little.” – Various
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trends: US Population, Growth Rate
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How important is the “baby boom”?
Is it a media concept?
Look at the effect of Depression
and WWII (almost negligible)
What kind of lever is immigration
on US technical competency?
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend: US Occupation Type
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Primary Occupations:
Material Extraction (42  4%)
Secondary Occupations:
Material Processing (38  38%)
Tertiary Occupations:
Professional, Technical,
Info, and Services (21  58%)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend: US Urbanization
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“Urban” is defined as a city greater
than 2,500 in size (generous)
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Rural 60%  25%
Urban 40%  75%
The ten largest cities of 1998 had
about the same combined
population as those of 1950 (flight
to suburbs)
Suburbs became “urban corridors”
as long as 700 miles (Norfolk VA
to Portland ME)
For more: pbs.org/fmc
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend: Declining Global Violence
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Stephen Pinker, “The History of Violence,” 2007
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Civil society, positive-sum, empathy, immunity
20th Century war deaths of 100 million would have
been 2 billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of
tribal warfare.
Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per
100,000 in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000
by the early 1960s.
Battle deaths in interstate wars have
declined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s
to 2,000/yr in 1990’s
See Human Security Brief 2006
(www.humansecuritybrief.info/)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Automation and the Service Society
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Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio,
110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1
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Automation and Job Disruption
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Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost
22 million industrial jobs.
This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy.
America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China.
 China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune)
 Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the
country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since
1992. (Economist)

“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in
mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also
being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by
electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on
shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is
jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those we knew
on the farms and the assembly line.”  Tsvi Bisk
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"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003
"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003
“The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)
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Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,
each needing only a high school education.
The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Voluntary Future
Acceleration
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Lifetime hours trends:
1880
1995
2040
Total Available (after eating, 225,900
sleeping, etc.)
298,500 321,900
Worked to earn a living
182,100
122,400 75,900
Balance for Leisure and
Voluntary Work
43,800
176,100 246,000
Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture,
entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service,
humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.
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Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of
Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning
economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of
economic history using statistical and mathematical models)© 2007 Accelerating.org
Trend Analysis II:
Tech Forecasting and Scenarios
“Sensemaking is the Analyst’s Challenge”
IT Trend Analysis: Army Research Lab
Major Shared Resource Center (ARL MSRC)
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High-performance computing,
simulation tools and models.
Identifying emerging information technologies
Learning how IT trends can be exploited to
further capabilities of Department of Defense
(DoD) researchers and developers.
Some trend emphases: Processing, mass
storage, visualization, networking, power and
cooling
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Great Tech Forecasting Intro:
Forecasting and Management of Technology, Porter et. al., 1991
Acceleration
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Theory of Sociotechnical Change
Technology Planning
Managing a Forecasting Project
Indiv. and Group Creativity
Environmental Scanning
Quant. Trend Extrapolation
Trend Analysis (S-Shaped
Curves)
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Institutional, Organizational
Social, Behavioral
Political, Legal
Environmental, Health
Cost/Benefit Analysis
Risk Analysis
Analytical Hierarchy Process
Fisher-Pry (growth/innovation)
Gompertz (mortality/deterioration)
Nominal Group Technique
Delphi Surveys
Simulation
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Impact Assessment
Lotka-Volterra Equations
Expert Opinion
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Cross-Impact and KSIM
System Dynamics
Games
Scenarios
Economic Forecasting
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Great Professional Forecasting Book:
Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, 2001
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Introduction
Role Playing
Forecasting from Intentions Data
Expert Opinions
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Improving Judgment
Decomposition
Delphi
Conjoint Analysis
Judgmental Bootstrapping
Analogous Time-Series
Extrapolation of Time-Series
Rule-Based Forecasting
Expert Systems
Econometric Forecasting
Selecting Forecasting Methods
Using Domain Knowledge
Judgmental Adjustment of Stats
Combining Forecasts
Evaluating Forecast Methods
Prediction Intervals (Time-Series)
Overconfidence in Judgment
Scenarios
Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity
Applications
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Diffusion of Forecasting Principles
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Population Forecasting
Diffusion of Innovations
Market Share
Consumer Sales
Books
Software
Standards
For more: forecastingprinciples.com
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Statistical Analysis Tools
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SPSS was originally Statistical Package for Social Sciences. 1968 Stanford
spin-off of Nie, Hull, and Bent. It is a leading tool (along with SAS) for
Predictive Analytics. SAS (full data analysis with statistics as the quant.
component) is more powerful than SPSS (primarily statistical analysis),
but much more expensive and (presently) much less user friendly.
SPSS Version 15 academic licenses start at $99.
Field’s book (2nd ed) is clear, witty, very comprehensive, and requires no
statistical background. Teaches statistical analysis and SPSS.
Salsburg’s The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in
the 20th Century, 2001, is a great historical intro to the stat. revolution.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Statistical Test Tree
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Discovering Statistics Using SPSS (and sex, drugs, and rock n’ roll), 2nd Ed, Andy Field, 2005, p.
780Accelerating.org
© 2007
Nominal Group Technique
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Developed by Andre Delbecq (U. Santa Clara) and
Andrew Van de Ven (U. Minn) in 1971.
Theory:
 Small groups that do not interact [at first] are the most
creative idea generators.
 Small and large groups that interact [in structured ways]
are the best idea evaluators.
Question: What are the key trends that will change the global
security landscape between now and 2030?
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Group Techniques for Program Planning, Delbecq et. Al., 1975
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Growth-Based Alternative Scenarios:
Jim Dator’s “Four Futures” (Cultural Images)
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The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change
1. Continuation. A future in which current key conditions persist, including
continued historical exponential growth in certain domains (economics,
science and technology (S&T), cultural complexity, etc.) This marginal rate
of growth increases the longer S&T have been in use by a civilization.
Also known as PTE “present trends extended.”
2. Limits and Discipline. A future in which we encounter resource-based or
values-based limits to PTE. A saturation or "sustainability" regime
emerges, slowing previous growth and organizing around values that are
ancient, traditional, natural, ideologically-correct, or God-given.
3. Decline and Collapse. A future in which at least some conditions
deteriorate from their present favorable levels, and at least some critical
systems fail, due to either probable, possible, or wildcard factors.
4. Transformation. A future of disruptive emergence, "high tech," "high
spirit" (consciousness, complexity), or both, with the end of some current
patterns/values, and the development of new ones, rather than the return
to older traditional ones. This is a transition to an "innovation" regime of
new and even steeper growth, rather than the "Continuation" regime
First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Growth-Based Alternative Scenarios:
Jim Dator’s Four Futures (Graph)
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The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change
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First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Factors-Based Alternative Scenarios:
Environmental Factors (vs. Cultural Images)
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1. State the specific decision or future domain to be studied.
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2. Identify the major environmental factors (drivers, forces, trends, limits, etc.)
impacting the decision or future domain. For example, how to invest R & D
funds to be positioned for opportunities and challenges that might emerge
in 2015. Factors might include tech capacity growth trends, lifestyle trends,
regional economic growth and trade access (tariffs etc.), etc.
3. Build four (or more) scenarios based on unique combinations of your
principal factors. In the GBN approach, identify two clusters of “most
important and most uncertain” factors which are A) certain to happen in one
of several conditions, and B) largely outside the control of org. strategy (eg.,
high/low economic growth, high/low competition) and develop a matrix of
four outcomes based on the two factors. Assemble each outcome into
internally consistent future 'stories', with both a narrative and a table of key
factors, hypothetical decisions, consequences.
4. Examine the range of opportunities and risk
abatement strategies across your range of
scenarios. Expose to your team and engage
in “scenario learning” as stimulus to more
realistic, foresighted, and robust strategy.
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For more:
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Decomposing, Prioritizing, and Timing Trends:
The Analyst’s Challenge
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Consider this Forrester Research study:
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Abstract: We have identified six shifts in economic trends that will have big [IT]
impacts on most businesses over the next five years:
1. Higher [but stabilizing] energy prices and increased focus on energy conservation
2. Greater risks of disruption from natural disasters and terrorist attacks
3. Aging populations and retirement benefit crunches
4. The cessation of housing as an economic growth engine
5. Moderately higher inflation and interest rates
6. Accelerating technology globalization and slowing trade globalization
- “Sources of technology innovation and comparative advantage will increasingly migrate from
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the US, Europe, and Japan to China, India, and other developing countries.”
- Meanwhile trade liberalization talks (Doha round) are increasingly stalled. “Few barriers to
imports of manufactured goods remain in developed countries. However, trade barriers to
developed countries’ exports of manufactured goods or services persist in many developing
countries, which resist reducing trade barriers unless the developed world lowers its barriers
to agricultural imports.” Translation: Info services trade increasingly favored over other
goods and services..
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Thoughts on Upcoming Disruptions
An Incomplete List…
Tech Disruptions to Consider:
Which Unlock the Greatest Value? Greatest Security?
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Sorites Paradoxes
(little-by-little leads to phase change emergence):
 Internet Growth (Pages, Storage, not Use) Exabytes.
 Conversational Interface (circa 2015-2020)
 Language Translation (Google wins NIST contests)
 Mobile Web. 1 Billion New Users by 2010 (GPS-equipped
phones, Google’s location-based mobile browser)
 Wearable Web. (Carpal PC, networked shoes, etc.)
 Social Networks (LinkedIn, MySpace, Cyworld).
 Innovation/Idea Networks (Procter & Gamble’s Connect and
Develop model, etc.)
 MEST Compression Q: How many people think English will
be the dominant global language in… 2100? (uses only 22 of
~120 human phonemes. Will we ignore a 5X aural
efficiency?)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Tech Disruptions to Consider:
Which Unlock the Greatest Value? Greatest Security?
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Participatory Web (Web 2.0). (sharing, tagging, social search, blogs, citizen
journalism (OhMyNews)).
Luis von Ahn: It took 50,000 individuals to deliver the NASA Apollo program. We'll soon be
able to connect 400 million skilled individuals online. What will we produce together?
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Wikinomics. (Wikis, Collaborative Filtering/Long Tail, Prediction Markets,
Lifelogs/blogs)
Videoconferencing (Picturephone to Video Wall, etc.)
Internet Television and the Democratization of Information
GIS/Mirror Worlds
Google Earth, Virtual Town Square, Green Map System, etc.
Virtual Worlds (Second Life). “Encapsulating and parameterizing physical
space.”
– Online SL spending: $1.7 million/day.
– Logged in to SL the last 60 days: 1.6 million.
Virtual Community Planning Tools (Competition among cities for talent/real
estate price increases).
Virtual Offices (Groove 2016), Virtual Jobs, Contract Jobs
24/7 Quality Tech Support (Global Geek Brother)
Global micropayments (developing nations support)
Financial and legal innovations (LLC’s, property markets, capital mortgage
markets, microcredit, personal asset monetization)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Symbiont Networks: A Disruptive Social Development
with Asymmetric Security-Immunity Implications
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Before 2015, some younger users of synthetic worlds will form diverse "symbiont groups." Their
contributions to group goals will be managed and mediated by virtual team building e-learning
platforms, ensuring active and balanced contribution by everyone in the group. Such groups will likely
be self limited by cognitive and communication constraints to an intimate tablesetting size (the most
intimate group) of 3-8, and a Dunbar number (total group size) of 150.
These kids will be lifelogging, sharing experiences, communicating in realtime, giving each other
practical advice in realtime through an audio backchannel, and sending output through their
wearcams. They’ll be able to be guided by self-designated "experts" in the group as they try anything
complex (cooking a souffle, solving a math problem, applying for a job, etc.). Many will experience a
kind of groupmind. "If it happens to my group it happens to me." Such individuals will follow a
measurably different developmental path than less networked youth not participating in such groups.
As in leading World of Warcraft guilds today, youth who are members of symbiont clans that possess
widely diverse skill sets yet share common values are more generally intelligent, resilient,
economically productive, and better adapted than those who don't form symbionts at an early age. A
"symbiont gap" will be noted between those (comparably few, at first) children who link up in this
fashion and those who consider it alien or an unacceptable loss of individual identity. There will be
significant controversy on this issue among developmental psychologists and the general public, in
both developed and emerging nations. "
Picture in 2012 a pilot correctional program taking juvenile (and later, adult) lawbreakers and bringing
them into virtual worlds while they are incarcerated. These worlds are populated with a few social
workers, psychologists, and corrections officers, but mostly with volunteer do-gooders, whose physical
world identities are private in the virtual world. On release, the juvenile is still able to maintain
permanent ongoing contact with his virtual community. He gets advice through his earpiece 24/7 from
any of his friends in world, on such mundane things as getting a job, interacting with others, etc. He
can have this advice spoken into an earpiece, and the virtual community can see his physical world
feed, seeing what he sees.
Now imagine that recidivism rates have dropped drastically for various types of crimes in the pilot
study, and there are efforts to expand it to other groups. Pilot programs for adult offenders, homeless,
and subgroups of the mentally ill begin to show simiilar benefits. Why do these work so well? Here's
the basic dynamic: There is a great majority of untapped volunteer help in any healthy
community, a statiscially small number of individuals needing major help, and rapidly
increasing network access between them.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Stratellites: Potentially Disruptive Global
Immunity Development
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Long Deployment Blimp or Balloon
Stratospheric Satellites (Stratellites)
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Inventor: Hokan Colting
21stCenturyAirships.com
180 feet diameter. Autonomous.
70,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)
Permanent geosynch. location.
Onboard solar and navigation.
A “quarter sized” receiver dish.
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Q1: Which applications have
been discussed?
a.
Border monitoring
b.
City monitoring
c.
Urban broadband
d.
Early warning radar
Q2: Why are satellites presently
failing against the wired world?
Latency, bandwidth, launch costs.
MEST compression always wins.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
ISIS Project: Blimp Stratellites for Global
Security, Comms, Space Solar Power V. 1.0
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Stationkeeping at 70K feet for a year
High resolution radar and visual intelligence
Space-to-stratosphere powered, relayed above most
atmosphere (high efficiency, no EMI or heating)
A constellation of stratellites served by satellites,
used for theatre ops, comm relay, missile early
warning, border monitoring, city monitoring, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Hurricane Control:
New DoD/NASA/NOAA Security Mission?
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Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property
damage. 11 named storms in 10
months in 2004, 7 caused
damage in U.S.
NOAA expects decades of
hurricane hyperactivity.
Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s).
In 1968, Peter Glaser proposed microwave SPS’s for
power on earth. Hurricane SPS’s would instead be
tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low
pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating.
Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones,
monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados.
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Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed).
23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground.
Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.
“Controlling Hurricanes,” Scientific American, 10.2004
© 2007 Accelerating.org
EM Mass Drivers:
A Developmental Attractor?
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Cost of launching to LEO orbit: $10K/kilogram. Mass drivers (linear
electromagnetic induction in vacuum) and Slingatrons (spiral or circular EM
acceleration, Derek Tidman), are both potential launch system candidates.
“The actual energy cost of putting a pound into Earth Orbit would be very low,
only about 25 cents per pound if electric energy were directly [100%
efficiently] used to accelerate payloads to an orbital velocity of 8 km/second.”
(Maglev 2000 of Florida) Escape velocity from earth, with atmospheric drag:
something greater than 11 km/second.
Problem: Deformation when
the projectile hits atmosphere
at the end of the tube.
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MagLifter Solution: Subsonic
non-vacuum (600 mph) launch
vehicle, replacing first stage
(1/10th the cost).
Long-Term Solution:
Not yet apparent.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Railguns: EM Mass Driver Proof of Concept
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Railguns (a 2% efficient, simpler EM technology) are
being developed by the U.S. Navy for antimissile
defense. Rails can be as short as 1 m.
They presently fire small projectiles (at 300,000 G’s,
using two-story generators for sufficient current) at
velocities of 3-10 km/sec. Performance goal is 15
km/sec. 150 km/sec is considered possible.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Ecuadorean Mass Driver?
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What to launch?
 Water ice (for the
moon)
 Raw materials
 Self-assembling
robotic systems
 Anything nonliving
Mount Chimborazo in Ecuador. 1 degree south of
the equator. (20,500 feet). Farthest spot from the
Earth’s center, due to the equatorial bulge.
Only 1/3 of sea level air density at the summit.
Prior work estimates an escape velocity of 12-15
km/sec of launch necessary for small objects.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
How do we get around atmospheric drag in
the launch corridor?
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We don’t know. The experiments haven’t been
done. Some possibilities:
 Accelerated ionized particle beams can
create vacuum (think of lightning and the
temporary vacuum it makes, followed by
thunder at the collapse of vacuum).
 Repeated launch of anything (metallic rock,
ice) prior to payload launch will rarify the
launch corridor
 Using helium gas inside the driver and
ablative helium in payloads might greatly
decrease corridor and transition density
 Plasma jets at the launch point would reduce
transition density
Thunder:
Collapse of
Vacuum
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Significant Trends – Defense and Aerospace
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3D GPS Navigation, GIS, 3D Visualization of Global Assets
3D Surveying Automation (and 2D to 3D Conversion Tools)
Previsualization/Simulation (America’s Army to Virtual Wargaming
to Operations Research)
Spimes (Lifelogs for objects, guns, etc.)
Ubiquitous sensor networks (acoustical transparency, camera traps,
etc.). Spying with Maps, Mark Monmonier, 2004; Transparent
Society, David Brin, 1998
Local Positioning Systems (RFID, Mesh Networks, etc.)
Unique visual identification via biometric AI (game changer for
public spaces)
Microrobotics/effector networks
Virtual Prototyping and PLM Software
Long-range UAVs. Asymmetric security risk.
High-altitute UAVs. Asymmetric asset.
SOF and COIN Proliferation (Major)
Minimally staffed bases (“Caches”). Changes global logistics.
Humbots (Major)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Painter Challenge
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Waking Up to the Accelerating
Promise and Peril Ahead
We all face the choice of becoming acceleration aware
(“accelaware”). Or not. Future Shock or Future Shaping.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
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© 2007 Accelerating.org
Discussion