Adapting to the Future

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Transcript Adapting to the Future

Adapting to the Future:
Expecting and Guiding Accelerating Change
for Defense Senior Leaders
Navy Senior Leader Seminar
Naval Postgraduate School
Dec 2011  Monterey, CA
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”)
foresight, a model which proposes the universe uses both
“trees” and “funnels” to create change:
1. A large number of contingent and individually
unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use
to create unique, valuable, and creative paths,
most of which will fail. Evolutionary “Trees”:
2. A small number of convergent and collectively
predictable developmental constraints (initial
conditions, laws, constancies) that direct aspects
of our long-range future. Developmental “Funnels”:
▪ Some “tree” and “funnel” trends which may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating diversity, specialization, innovation, collective
intelligence, and wealth in global systems
Accelerating interdependence, evidence-based behavior and
intimacy of human-machine and physical-digital interface.
Accelerating technological autonomy and resiliency in our
social and technological systems
For more, see ASF’s international systems research community, EvoDevoUniverse.com.
Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
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A ‘Developmental Spiral’
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(You won’t find this topic in our current
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physics or information theory textbooks…)
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Accelerating Change:
Consider What We’ve Seen in the Last Ten Years
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Envir, Tech, Economic, Political, Social:
 Global carbon emissions growing 6%/yr
 Solar PV price-perf. grows 7%/yr for 30 yrs
(<10 yrs to outcompete coal*)
 China’s GDP grows 9%/yr for 20 yrs
 Online commerce grows 14%/year
 China’s top cities GDP grow at 20%/year.
 World’s digital info grows 36%/year (doubles 24 months). (IDC)
 Facebook: 700M users, $80B val. in 7 yrs. (200%/yr). G+ even faster.
Defense and Security:
 2001 NYC, 02 Bali, 03 Istanbul, 04 Madrid, 05 London, 08 Mumbai
What vulnerabilities come next?
 Drones. Al-Qaeda used in 2001. Now $45B/yr, micro, DIY drones
FAA banned urban use in 2007, ~300 exceptions (borders, law enf.)
 IEDs, DIY rocketry, Cruise missiles, Iran, AVLIS, Narcoterrorism.
 Smartphones, Sensors, Big Dog, Stuxnet, Data Mining, Palantir…
*Smaller, Cheaper, Faster, Ramez Naam, Scientific American Blog, 3.16.11
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The Race to Inner Space:
Civilization’s Hidden Strategic Objective?
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Nanotech/Engrg - Physical Inner Space
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“There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.”
Fission 1,000X more E than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission
Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries
Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds & yields 1,000-1,000,000X
Programmable synapses use 10^6 less E per comp. than neurons
Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers
Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less
Infotech/IT/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space:
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“As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting”
Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways.
Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action)
Rise of scientific simulations. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator
Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception
Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action
Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web.
Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower.
of Scientific Simulations: From A-Life to Artificial Cosmogenesis, C. Vidal, 2008
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Some ‘Laws’ of Technology
Moore’s “Law”: Chips Double In
Power Per Price Every 2 Yrs
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1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Many regulatory choices. How transparent? equitable? safe?
How much IP? What tech is slowed down, what is subsidized?)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers, envir. impacts (water,
forests), rich-poor divide, etc.* How can leaders jump this curve?
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* See Kuznets curve, Wikipedia, and The J-Curve, Bremmer, 2006
for some good quantitative examples of this phenomenon.
Some ‘Laws’ of Complex Systems, J. Smart, 2002-2011.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
How Nanotech/Engineering and Infotech Accelerations
Are Driving Social, Economic, and Political Change
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Kirton’s
Innovators
Kirton’s
Adaptors
(Sustainers)
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Evolutionary Trends:
 Diversity
 Specialization and Individuation
 Innovation and Freedom
 Collective Intelligence
 Fair Competition
 Tech-Caused Unemployment
 Global Wealth
Developmental Trends:
 Social Democratic Capitalism
 Morality and Interdependence
 Evidence-Based Behavior
 Tech Autonomy and Intelligence
 Human-Machine Merger
 Transparency and Security
 Global Resilience
GDP per capita in Western
Europe, 1000-1999 AD.
We live in exponential times.
Toffler, Revolutionary
Wealth, 2006.
We may all end up like Sweden, more or less.
Inglehart & Welzel, Worldvaluessurvey.org
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Planetary Trends are the New Disruptors:
See Them, and Gain Wiser Leadership and Strategy
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Diversity and
Specialization
Innovation and
Freedom
Collective
Intelligence
Tech-Caused
Disruption
Global
Wealth
Morality and
Evidence-
Interdependence
Based Behavior
Business
Cycles
Automation &
Machine Intell.
Transparency
and Security
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"God [or Universe] grant me the serenity to accept [and the foresight to see] the things I cannot change,
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the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference." - St. Francis of Assisi.
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Fear and Fundamentalism are Common Organizational
and Cultural Reactions to Accelerating Change
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Some disturbing books on accelerating change:
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Some counterstrategies:
 Cognitive Inventories (StrengthsFinder 2.0, KAI, MBTI, etc.)
 Cognitive Diversity (The Difference, Page, 2007;
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Strengths-Based Leadership, Rath, 2009)
 Fear Diagnostics (Breaking the Fear Barrier, Rieger, 2011)
 Trust and Empowerment (The Speed of Trust, Covey, 2008)
 Learning and Evidence-Based Culture (The Fifth Discipline, 2006;
Senior Leadership Teams, 2008; Action Learning for Developing Leaders
and Orgs, 2009; Building the Learning Organization, 3rd Ed, 2011
© 2011 Accelerating.org
America Remains the Global Innovation Leader - For Now
How Do We Keep it That Way?
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What is It About American Values, Culture, and Practices that
Historically Promotes This?
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Free, Merit-Based, Immigrant Culture (need more of that again)
Cultural Optimism, Independence, Civil Rights, Fair Rules…
What Countries Are Now As Innovative Per Capita?
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Europe: Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Germany
Asia: Japan, Singapore; Mid-East: Israel
China (soon): May pass US in total patents in 2012.
Very selective and aggressive high-tech innovator
(solar, electric, mfg, nuclear, drones, etc.)
What Hinders Further US Innovation Growth?
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Finland’s K-12 Ed. System Has
Been Massively Reformed
Politics: Lack of Innov.-Oriented Policy and Leadership
Economics: Funding for Startups, Laws to Benefit Small Co’s.
Society: Far to Little Freedom/Individ./Competition in Education
How Do We Best Lead Our Military Organizations to Innovate?
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Align Your Politics, Economics, and Culture with Innovation
Prophet of Innovation: Shumpeter and Creative Destruction, 2010
US Mil Innov Since the Cold War: Creation Without Destruction, 2009.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The Values of Progress
My Personal Take. What’s Yours?
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“Triple bottom line”
is just a crude start.
Evolutionary Values
Competition/Merit-Based Behavior/Judgment
Innovation/Experimentation/Freedom
Individuality/Specialization/Diversity
Adaptability Values
Positive Sumness/Morality/Social Democracy
Resiliency/Immunity/Adaptive Ability
Intelligence/Awareness/Learning Ability
Developmental Values
Cooperation/Interdependence/Harmony
Sustainability/Security/Defense
Universality/Science/Evidence-Based Behavior
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What are the values of your org?
How do you measure and report them?
Smart, John, Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick & Lupisella (eds.), 2008.
The Metaverse, the Conversational Interface,
the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm
Some Potential Next Decade Developments
The Future of the Web (2007)
The Future of Internet TV (2010)
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Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)
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John Smart, 2010 (48 pp)
http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf
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Five Generic Steps in Web Development
Metaverseroadmap.org
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Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Read Mainly - Graphical UI
Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI
3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI
Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,
Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI
Web
Metaverse
Metahumanity
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Virtual Space is Fastspace:
Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs
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Our free report: MetaverseRoadmap.org
The Sims
Google Earth + Street View
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• Rapid, interactive, multi-user
• Collaboration environments
(user-created content)
• Optimization environments
(GIS, automation, AI)
• More fun than older digital
media (games & VWs outsell
movies, now and forever).
• Still Bandwidth- and CPUlimited (not yet “hyperreal”).
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Digital Transparency:
From Gmail to Lifelogs
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Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos,
movie clips, text messages, notes),
SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and
MyLifeBits (2003) early examples of
lifelogs, systems for auto-recording,
archiving indexing, searching all our
life experience, as it happens.
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Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.
Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all
this data begins turning into collective intelligence.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Mobile Transparency:
From Cellphones to Sensecams
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‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
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Wearcam.org’s first-gen
‘sousveillance’ cams (2001)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
Panopticon: Balanced Transparency is a Positive-Sum
Strategy in Modern Democracies, So Far
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Surveillance (top-down tracking)
Souveillance (bottom-up tracking)
Ex: Lower Manhattan Security Initiative (2008):
- 3,000 new sec. cameras, 2/3 in private hands.
- Automated license plate readers (like UK).
Ex: Cameras in Police Cruisers (2003+)
- Sometimes at behest of officers (safety)
- Sometimes citizen initiatives (civil rights)
Balance is a ‘Panopticon’, all-watching-all in
public space. (Transparent Society, 2008)
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Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for
paper currency (2003)
Tracking illicit economies
(a major global vulnerability)
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Web 3.0 (Open Internet Television) is On the Horizon:
Millions of Channels, Tens of Millions of Video Producers
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Conversational Interface, Memeshows,
Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may as
well.
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Alto J.
Smart,
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2015? In 2020?
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Nonverbal and verbal language in
parallel is a much more efficient
communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.
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“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2000
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Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
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A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology.
A time when:
▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
our needs and desires.
▪ Humans and machines are intimately
connected, and always improving each other.
▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
computer “clothes.”
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Personality Capture and Intelligence Amplification:
Increasingly Intimate Human-Machine Interaction
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Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
To my knowledge, no other credible long-term futures
have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
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Your Cybertwin (Digital Self):
Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
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Note the conflict between these two statements:
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction:
▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in
successive approximation, gentle integration,
subtle capturing and transition… of our selves.
When we can shift our conscious perspective
between our electronic and biological components,
the encapsulation and transcendence of the
biological should feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
PersonaFoundation.org
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The Digital Self: Better Self-Actualization, with
Ongoing Social, Economic, and Political Implications
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Some Challenges - particularly early:
 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountability of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
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Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
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Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2020’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
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Better Work and Collaboration:
Symbiont Networks
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When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (entrepreneurship symbionts,
sports symbionts, transhumanist symbionts, etc.)
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Page,
New
York Scott. 2008. The
Palo
Alto
Creates
Better Groups,
Difference: How the Power of Diversity
Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.
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© 2011 Accelerating.org
Better Learning and Edutainment:
Cognitive Training and Serious Games
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DriveSharp, Posit Science
• 20 hours of play expands
peripheral vision in 60+ year
olds for two full years.
• This causes a 40% reduction
in auto accidents.
• State Farm distributes it free
to drivers over 60.
• May become mandatory for
DMV recertification in older
drivers (PA has already
considered this).
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Better Health Care and Drug Policy:
Monitoring, Implants, Addiction Mgmt.
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Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010
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Innovation, Learning, and Sustainability
Challenges for Defense Senior Leaders
Thoughts on Adapting to Accelerating Change
ILS Triad: Three Basic Processes (Innovation, Learning,
Sustaining) Drive All Complex Systems
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These three functional processes
can be observed in:
 Physical Systems
 Chemical Systems
 Biological Systems
 Societal Systems
 Technological Systems
 Universe as a System
Using the ILS model, we can look at any complex system as either:
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1. A Learning/“Adaptive” System (hiding evo and devo processes)
2. An Evo Devo/“Sustainable Innovation” System (hiding learning/adaptation)
3. An Innovating, Learning and Sustaining System (keeping all three explicit)
ILS in Foresight Work (Amara 1981):
Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures
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Possible (what we imagine and believe may happen), Preferable (what
we want to happen), and Probable (what we expect will happen,
whether we want it or not) are three basic foresight domains.
Organizations address these #1 first, #2 sometimes, and #3 rarely.
1. Preferable
Futures (“Planning”)
(Consensus, Leadership, Policy,
Planning, Roadmaps, Surveys)
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3. Possible
2. Probable
Futures (“Foresight”)
Futures (“Forecasting”)
(Horizon Scanning, Games,
Scenarios, Visioning, Wildcards)
(Actuarial Science, Delphi,
Forecasting, Prediction Markets)
Evolution
Development
Foresight Specialties Classified by
Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework
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Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group methods that explore the
Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the
Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans).
This is an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible),
"Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.
Foresight Frameworks, Foresight Ed and Research Network, J. Smart, 2007
Accelerating Change in a Nutshell:
Resource Density and Efficiency Increase
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Four useful ways to think about accelerating change:
1. Densification/Miniaturization (Density)
- The most resource-dense systems always win in competitions. Metropoli
beat cities beat towns for innovation and services delivered per resource.
- Miniaturization is another form of process densification (reinvent the
process using less space, time, energy, or matter).
2. Efficiency/Learning Curves (Efficiency)
- As humans produce, we continually learn how to make more, better,
faster, with less resources (space, time, energy, matter) per product.
3. Virtualization/Simulation (Density and Efficiency)
- PhysicalComputational (“Don’t Do it If You Can Think/Model It Instead”)
Moving intelligent processes from physical to computational realms.
4. Substitution/Competition/Shift (Density and Efficiency)
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- Gravitation/NuclearSunlight/PlantsFood/Animals Energy Metabolism
- ChemicalNeuronSilicon Computing Systems
- HumansCheaper,Faster,or More Specialized Humans
- HumansRobots/Machines
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Accelerating Change For Leaders:
Improving Resource Density and Efficiency
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What are my critical resources? Identify them.
Personnel, Finances, Physical Assets, Risk Mgmt, Types of
Talent (StrengthsFinder), Strategic Partners, Community…
What strategies will improve resource density and efficiency?
1. Densification/Miniaturization
- How do I get denser and more ubiquitous communications networks?
- How do I identify and incentivize more of what really matters?
- What can I learn from the biggest and densest (cities, orgs, depts) in my domain?
- What resources could use more densification or miniaturization? Faster access?
2. Efficiency/Learning Curves
- What are our critical learning curves? Efficiency/Innovation thresholds?
- How do we get to scale in production (new applications, partnership, procurement
process), and share our learning better, to ride faster down our learning curves?
3. Virtualization/Simulation
- What can be automated or simulated? Where can information replace doing things?
- Can I get more and better virtual meetings? Better predictive security (Palantir)?
4. Substitution/Substrate Shift
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- Will upgrading, offshoring, temping, or privatizing grow resource density/efficiency?
- Where can computers or other people, do key jobs better, faster, smarter, cheaper?
- Do my talent managers identify and substitute personnel (internally or externally)
who are better at critical tasks?
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Domination By Acceleration:
Col. John Boyd’s OODA Loop
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Rise of maneuver vs. attrition warfare (fast infantry > cavalry > ground vehicles > jet fighters > netwar)
Since Napoleon’s fast infantry, the best tech continually “gets inside the decision cycle” of the opponent.
Latest Manifestation: “Rapid Dominance/Shock and Awe” Strategy. Gulf War I and II (beginning).
-- Massive communication (land, air, space) and air power (recon, bombers, fighters, missiles).
-- Target enemy command and control.
A) Total command of the skies and B) overwhelming firepower are not enough. They must be C)
deployable inside the enemy’s OODA loop. Israel had A&B in the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, but
Hezbollah had better and faster ground maneuverability and concealment. Stalemate.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Superior Energy-Maneuverability and Rapid OODA:
The Tactical Advantage of Small, Expert Teams
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Small teams can:
-- Rapidly innovate and adapt
-- Operate below the radar (stealth)
-- Have superior urgency and purpose
-- Ignore convention and pursue vision
-- Get hand-picked excellence and resources
-- Sustain their speed via redundancy and reserves
-- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory as needed
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These are increasingly critical advantages in a globalized,
accelerating, network-centric world.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Be an Efficiency Maven 80% of the Time…
(Quality Control, Kaizen, Knowledge Mgmt, etc.)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
PDCA Improvement Cycle
Plan: Design/revise business process for best ROI
Do:
Implement plan with measurement tools
Check: Analyze results, report to decisionmakers
Act:
Decide on changes to improve process
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
(Walter) Shewhart Cycle
(Bell Labs)
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Palo Alto
W. Edwards Deming
Quality Statistician
Shewhart and Deming developed tools for Quality
Management via statistical process control
(understanding and eliminating variation)
• Sampling techniques
• ANOVA, etc.
• Hypothesis testing
• Finding common/systemic and
special/external causes of variation
Deming: Cooperation over competition.
1. Appreciation for a system
2. Knowledge about variation
3. Knowledge of human psychology
4. A theory of knowledge
© 2011 Accelerating.org
But Be an Innovator 20% of the Time…
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Compstat, Broken Windows, Transparency Tech, Performance
Accountability, Community Policing...
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The Leader’s Challenge: To Find and
Guide Us to “Positive Sum” Futures
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Positive-Sum
Pluralistic
Differentiated
“Both/And”
versus
versus
versus
versus
Zero-Sum
Plutocratic
Homogeneous
“Either/Or” Futures
Social-Tech
AND
Individual advance
(Top-Down, Devo)
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New York
Palo Alto
Calculator Use
Automation Incr.
Metaverse Use
Automated Cars
Digital Twins
Security
(Bottom-Up, Evo)
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
Math Skills Incr.
Work/Prod. Skills
Study/Reading Skills
Driving Skills
Self-Empowerment
Freedom (to & from)
© 2011 Accelerating.org
What Are Navy Senior Leadership’s Best
Innovation, Learning, and Sustainability Strategies?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Across the STEEPS Categories:
Science & Tech
R&D, IT, Infrastructure, ERP, TOC/Lifecycle Mgmt
 Innovation:
 Learning:
 Sustainability:
Economics
Wages, Benefits, Incentives, Performance Reviews
 Innovation:
 Learning:
 Sustainability:
Politics & Environment
Management, Unions, Leadership, Policy, Sustainability
 Innovation:
 Learning:
 Sustainability:
Society/Org Culture
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New York
Palo Alto
Human Resources, Hiring, Training, Culture, Community Relations
 Innovation:
 Learning:
 Sustainability:
© 2011 Accelerating.org
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